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How the TFSA works

(Updated August 9th, 2020)

Background


You may have heard about off-shore tax havens of questionable legality where wealthy people invest their money in legal "grey zones" and don't pay any tax, as featured for example, in Netflix's drama, The Laundromat.

The reality is that the Government of Canada offers 100% tax-free investing throughout your life, with unlimited withdrawals of your contributions and profits, and no limits on how much you can make tax-free. There is also nothing to report to the Canada Revenue Agency. Although Britain has a comparable program, Canada is the only country in the world that offers tax-free investing with this level of power and flexibility.

Thank you fellow Redditors for the wonderful Gold Award and Today I Learned Award!

(Unrelated but Important Note: I put a link at the bottom for my margin account explainer. Many people are interested in margin trading but don't understand the math behind margin accounts and cannot find an explanation. If you want to do margin, but don't know how, click on the link.)

As a Gen-Xer, I wrote this post with Millennials in mind, many of whom are getting interested in investing in ETFs, individual stocks, and also my personal favourite, options. Your generation is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this extremely powerful program at a relatively young age. But whether you're in your 20's or your 90's, read on!

Are TFSAs important? In 2020 Canadians have almost 1 trillion dollars saved up in their TFSAs, so if that doesn't prove that pennies add up to dollars, I don't know what does. The TFSA truly is the Great Canadian Tax Shelter.

I will periodically be checking this and adding issues as they arise, to this post. I really appreciate that people are finding this useful. As this post is now fairly complete from a basic mechanics point of view, and some questions are already answered in this post, please be advised that at this stage I cannot respond to questions that are already covered here. If I do not respond to your post, check this post as I may have added the answer to the FAQs at the bottom.

How to Invest in Stocks


A lot of people get really excited - for good reason - when they discover that the TFSA allows you to invest in stocks, tax free. I get questions about which stocks to buy.

I have made some comments about that throughout this post, however; I can't comprehensively answer that question. Having said that, though, if you're interested in picking your own stocks and want to learn how, I recommmend starting with the following videos:

The first is by Peter Lynch, a famous American investor in the 80's who wrote some well-respected books for the general public, like "One Up on Wall Street." The advice he gives is always valid, always works, and that never changes, even with 2020's technology, companies and AI:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRMpgaBv-U4&t=2256s


The second is a recording of a university lecture given by investment legend Warren Buffett, who expounds on the same principles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MHIcabnjrA

Please note that I have no connection to whomever posted the videos.

Introduction


TFSAs were introduced in 2009 by Stephen Harper's government, to encourage Canadians to save.

The effect of the TFSA is that ordinary Canadians don't pay any income or capital gains tax on their securities investments.

Initial uptake was slow as the contribution rules take some getting used to, but over time the program became a smash hit with Canadians. There are about 20 million Canadians with TFSAs, so the uptake is about 70%- 80% (as you have to be the age of majority in your province/territory to open a TFSA).

Eligibility to Open a TFSA


You must be a Canadian resident with a valid Social Insurance Number to open a TFSA. You must be at the voting age in the province in which you reside in order to open a TFSA, however contribution room begins to accumulate from the year in which you turned 18. You do not have to file a tax return to open a TFSA. You do not need to be a Canadian citizen to open and contribute to a TFSA. No minimum balance is required to open a TFSA.

Where you Can Open a TFSA


There are hundreds of financial institutions in Canada that offer the TFSA. There is only one kind of TFSA; however, different institutions offer a different range of financial products. Here are some examples:


Insurance


Your TFSA may be covered by either CIFP or CDIC insuranceor both. Ask your bank or broker for details.

What You Can Trade and Invest In


You can trade the following:


What You Cannot Trade


You cannot trade:

Again, if it requires a margin account, it's out. You cannot buy on margin in a TFSA. Nothing stopping you from borrowing money from other sources as long as you stay within your contribution limits, but you can't trade on margin in a TFSA. You can of course trade long puts and calls which give you leverage.

Rules for Contribution Room


Starting at 18 you get a certain amount of contribution room.

According to the CRA:
You will accumulate TFSA contribution room for each year even if you do not file an Income Tax and Benefit Return or open a TFSA.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the years 2009 to 2012 was $5,000.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the years 2013 and 2014 was $5,500.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the year 2015 was $10,000.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the years 2016 to 2018 was $5,500.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the year 2019 is $6,000.
The TFSA annual room limit will be indexed to inflation and rounded to the nearest $500.
Investment income earned by, and changes in the value of TFSA investments will not affect your TFSA contribution room for the current or future years.

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/tax-free-savings-account/contributions.html
If you don't use the room, it accumulates indefinitely.

Trades you make in a TFSA are truly tax free. But you cannot claim the dividend tax credit and you cannot claim losses in a TFSA against capital gains whether inside or outside of the TFSA. So do make money and don't lose money in a TFSA. You are stuck with the 15% withholding tax on U.S. dividend distributions unlike the RRSP, due to U.S. tax rules, but you do not pay any capital gains on sale of U.S. shares.

You can withdraw *both* contributions *and* capital gains, no matter how much, at any time, without penalty. The amount of the withdrawal (contributions+gains) converts into contribution room in the *next* calendar year. So if you put the withdrawn funds back in the same calendar year you take them out, that burns up your total accumulated contribution room to the extent of the amount that you re-contribute in the same calendar year.

Examples


E.g. Say you turned 18 in 2016 in Alberta where the age of majority is 18. It is now sometime in 2020. You have never contributed to a TFSA. You now have $5,500+$5,500+$5,500+$6,000+$6,000 = $28,500 of room in 2020. In 2020 you manage to put $20,000 in to your TFSA and you buy Canadian Megacorp common shares. You now have $8,500 of room remaining in 2020.

Sometime in 2021 - it doesn't matter when in 2021 - your shares go to $100K due to the success of the Canadian Megacorp. You also have $6,000 worth of room for 2021 as set by the government. You therefore have $8,500 carried over from 2020+$6,000 = $14,500 of room in 2021.

In 2021 you sell the shares and pull out the $100K. This amount is tax-free and does not even have to be reported. You can do whatever you want with it.

But: if you put it back in 2021 you will over-contribute by $100,000 - $14,500 = $85,500 and incur a penalty.

But if you wait until 2022 you will have $14,500 unused contribution room carried forward from 2021, another $6,000 for 2022, and $100,000 carried forward from the withdrawal 2021, so in 2022 you will have $14,500+$6,000+$100,000 = $120,500 of contribution room.

This means that if you choose, you can put the $100,000 back in in 2022 tax-free and still have $20,500 left over. If you do not put the money back in 2021, then in 2022 you will have $120,500+$6,000 = $126,500 of contribution room.

There is no age limit on how old you can be to contribute, no limit on how much money you can make in the TFSA, and if you do not use the room it keeps carrying forward forever.

Just remember the following formula:

This year's contribution room = (A) unused contribution room carried forward from last year + (B) contribution room provided by the government for this year + (C) total withdrawals from last year.

EXAMPLE 1:

Say in 2020 you never contributed to a TFSA but you were 18 in 2009.
You have $69,500 of unused room (see above) in 2020 which accumulated from 2009-2020.
In 2020 you contribute $50,000, leaving $19,500 contribution room unused for 2020. You buy $50,000 worth of stock. The next day, also in 2020, the stock doubles and it's worth $100,000. Also in 2020 you sell the stock and withdraw $100,000, tax-free.

You continue to trade stocks within your TFSA, and hopefully grow your TFSA in 2020, but you make no further contributions or withdrawals in 2020.


The question is, How much room will you have in 2021?
Answer: In the year 2021, the following applies:
(A) Unused contribution room carried forward from last year, 2020: $19,500
(B) Contribution room provided by government for this year, 2021: $6,000
(C) Total withdrawals from last year, 2020: $100,000

Total contribution room for 2021 = $19,500+6,000+100,000 = $125,500.

EXAMPLE 2:
Say between 2020 and 2021 you decided to buy a tax-free car (well you're still stuck with the GST/PST/HST/QST but you get the picture) so you went to the dealer and spent $25,000 of the $100,000 you withdrew in 2020. You now have a car and $75,000 still burning a hole in your pocket. Say in early 2021 you re-contribute the $75,000 you still have left over, to your TFSA. However, in mid-2021 you suddenly need $75,000 because of an emergency so you pull the $75,000 back out. But then a few weeks later, it turns out that for whatever reason you don't need it after all so you decide to put the $75,000 back into the TFSA, also in 2021. You continue to trade inside your TFSA but make no further withdrawals or contributions.

How much room will you have in 2022?
Answer: In the year 2022, the following applies:

(A) Unused contribution room carried forward from last year, 2021: $125,500 - $75,000 - $75,000 = -$24,500.

Already you have a problem. You have over-contributed in 2021. You will be assessed a penalty on the over-contribution! (penalty = 1% a month).

But if you waited until 2022 to re-contribute the $75,000 you pulled out for the emergency.....

In the year 2022, the following would apply:
(A) Unused contribution room carried forward from last year, 2021: $125,500 -$75,000 =$50,500.
(B) Contribution room provided by government for this year, 2022: $6,000
(C) Total withdrawals from last year, 2020: $75,000

Total contribution room for 2022 = $50,500 + $6,000 + $75,000 = $131,500.
...And...re-contributing that $75,000 that was left over from your 2021 emergency that didn't materialize, you still have $131,500-$75,000 = $56,500 of contribution room left in 2022.

For a more comprehensive discussion, please see the CRA info link below.

FAQs That Have Arisen in the Discussion and Other Potential Questions:



  1. Equity and ETF/ETN Options in a TFSA: can I get leverage? Yes. You can buy puts and calls in your TFSA and you only need to have the cash to pay the premium and broker commissions. Example: if XYZ is trading at $70, and you want to buy the $90 call with 6 months to expiration, and the call is trading at $2.50, you only need to have $250 in your account, per option contract, and if you are dealing with BMO IL for example you need $9.95 + $1.25/contract which is what they charge in commission. Of course, any profits on closing your position are tax-free. You only need the full value of the strike in your account if you want to exercise your option instead of selling it. Please note: this is not meant to be an options tutorial; see the Montreal Exchange's Equity Options Reference Manual if you have questions on how options work.
  2. Equity and ETF/ETN Options in a TFSA: what is ok and not ok? Long puts and calls are allowed. Covered calls are allowed, but cash-secured puts are not allowed. All other option trades are also not allowed. Basically the rule is, if the trade is not a covered call and it either requires being short an option or short the stock, you can't do it in a TFSA.
  3. Live in a province where the voting age is 19 so I can't open a TFSA until I'm 19, when does my contribution room begin? Your contribution room begins to accumulate at 18, so if you live in province where the age of majority is 19, you'll get the room carried forward from the year you turned 18.
  4. If I turn 18 on December 31, do I get the contribution room just for that day or for the whole year? The whole year.
  5. Do commissions paid on share transactions count as withdrawals? Unfortunately, no. If you contribute $2,000 cash and you buy $1,975 worth of stock and pay $25 in commission, the $25 does not count as a withdrawal. It is the same as if you lost money in the TFSA.
  6. How much room do I have? If your broker records are complete, you can do a spreadsheet. The other thing you can do is call the CRA and they will tell you.
  7. TFSATFSA direct transfer from one institution to another: this has no impact on your contributions or withdrawals as it counts as neither.
  8. More than 1 TFSA: you can have as many as you want but your total contribution room does not increase or decrease depending on how many accounts you have.
  9. Withdrawals that convert into contribution room in the next year. Do they carry forward indefinitely if not used in the next year? Answer :yes.
  10. Do I have to declare my profits, withdrawals and contributions? No. Your bank or broker interfaces directly with the CRA on this. There are no declarations to make.
  11. Risky investments - smart? In a TFSA you want always to make money, because you pay no tax, and you want never to lose money, because you cannot claim the loss against your income from your job. If in year X you have $5,000 of contribution room and put it into a TFSA and buy Canadian Speculative Corp. and due to the failure of the Canadian Speculative Corp. it goes to zero, two things happen. One, you burn up that contribution room and you have to wait until next year for the government to give you more room. Two, you can't claim the $5,000 loss against your employment income or investment income or capital gains like you could in a non-registered account. So remember Buffett's rule #1: Do not lose money. Rule #2 being don't forget the first rule. TFSA's are absolutely tailor-made for Graham-Buffett value investing or for diversified ETF or mutual fund investing, but you don't want to buy a lot of small specs because you don't get the tax loss.
  12. Moving to/from Canada/residency. You must be a resident of Canada and 18 years old with a valid SIN to open a TFSA. Consult your tax advisor on whether your circumstances make you a resident for tax purposes. Since 2009, your TFSA contribution room accumulates every year, if at any time in the calendar year you are 18 years of age or older and a resident of Canada. Note: If you move to another country, you can STILL trade your TFSA online from your other country and keep making money within the account tax-free. You can withdraw money and Canada will not tax you. But you have to get tax advice in your country as to what they do. There restrictions on contributions for non-residents. See "non residents of Canada:" https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/cra-arc/formspubs/pub/rc4466/rc4466-19e.pdf
  13. The U.S. withholding tax. Dividends paid by U.S.-domiciled companies are subject to a 15% U.S. withholding tax. Your broker does this automatically at the time of the dividend payment. So if your stock pays a $100 USD dividend, you only get $85 USD in your broker account and in your statement the broker will have a note saying 15% U.S. withholding tax. I do not know under what circumstances if any it is possible to get the withheld amount. Normally it is not, but consult a tax professional.
  14. The U.S. withholding tax does not apply to capital gains. So if you buy $5,000 USD worth of Apple and sell it for $7,000 USD, you get the full $2,000 USD gain automatically.
  15. Tax-Free Leverage. Leverage in the TFSA is effectively equal to your tax rate * the capital gains inclusion rate because you're not paying tax. So if you're paying 25% on average in income tax, and the capital gains contribution rate is 50%, the TFSA is like having 12.5%, no margin call leverage costing you 0% and that also doesn't magnify your losses.
  16. Margin accounts. These accounts allow you to borrow money from your broker to buy stocks. TFSAs are not margin accounts. Nothing stopping you from borrowing from other sources (such as borrowing cash against your stocks in an actual margin account, or borrowing cash against your house in a HELOC or borrowing cash against your promise to pay it back as in a personal LOC) to fund a TFSA if that is your decision, bearing in mind the risks, but a TFSA is not a margin account. Consider options if you want leverage that you can use in a TFSA, without borrowing money.
  17. Dividend Tax Credit on Canadian Companies. Remember, dividends paid into the TFSA are not eligible to be claimed for the credit, on the rationale that you already got a tax break.
  18. FX risk. The CRA allows you to contribute and withdraw foreign currency from the TFSA but the contribution/withdrawal accounting is done in CAD. So if you contribute $10,000 USD into your TFSA and withdraw $15,000 USD, and the CAD is trading at 70 cents USD when you contribute and $80 cents USD when you withdraw, the CRA will treat it as if you contributed $14,285.71 CAD and withdrew $18,75.00 CAD.
  19. OTC (over-the-counter stocks). You can only buy stocks if they are listed on an approved exchange ("approved exchange" = TSX, TSX-V, NYSE, NASDAQ and about 25 or so others). The U.S. pink sheets "over-the-counter" market is an example of a place where you can buy stocks, that is not an approved exchange, therefore you can't buy these penny stocks. I have however read that the CRA make an exception for a stock traded over the counter if it has a dual listing on an approved exchange. You should check that with a tax lawyer or accountant though.
  20. The RRSP. This is another great tax shelter. Tax shelters in Canada are either deferrals or in a few cases - such as the TFSA - outright tax breaks, The RRSP is an example of a deferral. The RRSP allows you to deduct your contributions from your income, which the TFSA does not allow. This deduction is a huge advantage if you earn a lot of money. The RRSP has tax consequences for withdrawing money whereas the TFSA does not. Withdrawals from the RRSP are taxable whereas they are obviously not in a TFSA. You probably want to start out with a TFSA and maintain and grow that all your life. It is a good idea to start contributing to an RRSP when you start working because you get the tax deduction, and then you can use the amount of the deduction to contribute to your TFSA. There are certain rules that claw back your annual contribution room into an RRSP if you contribute to a pension. See your tax advisor.
  21. Pensions. If I contribute to a pension does that claw back my TFSA contribution room or otherwise affect my TFSA in any way? Answer: No.
  22. The $10K contribution limit for 2015. This was PM Harper's pledge. In 2015 the Conservative government changed the rules to make the annual government allowance $10,000 per year forever. Note: withdrawals still converted into contribution room in the following year - that did not change. When the Liberals came into power they switched the program back for 2016 to the original Harper rules and have kept the original Harper rules since then. That is why there is the $10,000 anomaly of 2015. The original Harper rules (which, again, are in effect now) called for $500 increments to the annual government allowance as and when required to keep up with inflation, based on the BofC's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Under the new Harper rules, it would have been $10,000 flat forever. Which you prefer depends on your politics but the TFSA program is massively popular with Canadians. Assuming 1.6% annual CPI inflation then the annual contribution room will hit $10,000 in 2052 under the present rules. Note: the Bank of Canada does an excellent and informative job of explaining inflation and the CPI at their website.
  23. Losses in a TFSA - you cannot claim a loss in a TFSA against income. So in a TFSA you always want to make money and never want to lose money. A few ppl here have asked if you are losing money on your position in a TFSA can you transfer it in-kind to a cash account and claim the loss. I would expect no as I cannot see how in view of the fact that TFSA losses can't be claimed, that the adjusted cost base would somehow be the cost paid in the TFSA. But I'm not a tax lawyeaccountant. You should consult a tax professional.
  24. Transfers in-kind to the TFSA and the the superficial loss rule. You can transfer securities (shares etc.) "in-kind," meaning, directly, from an unregistered account to the TFSA. If you do that, the CRA considers that you "disposed" of, meaning, equivalent to having sold, the shares in the unregistered account and then re-purchased them at the same price in the TFSA. The CRA considers that you did this even though the broker transfers the shares directly in the the TFSA. The superficial loss rule, which means that you cannot claim a loss for a security re-purchased within 30 days of sale, applies. So if you buy something for $20 in your unregistered account, and it's trading for $25 when you transfer it in-kind into the TFSA, then you have a deemed disposition with a capital gain of $5. But it doesn't work the other way around due to the superficial loss rule. If you buy it for $20 in the unregistered account, and it's trading at $15 when you transfer it in-kind into the TFSA, the superficial loss rule prevents you from claiming the loss because it is treated as having been sold in the unregistered account and immediately bought back in the TFSA.
  25. Day trading/swing trading. It is possible for the CRA to try to tax your TFSA on the basis of "advantage." The one reported decision I'm aware of (emphasis on I'm aware of) is from B.C. where a woman was doing "swap transactions" in her TFSA which were not explicitly disallowed but the court rules that they were an "advantage" in certain years and liable to taxation. Swaps were subsequently banned. I'm not sure what a swap is exactly but it's not that someone who is simply making contributions according to the above rules would run afoul of. The CRA from what I understand doesn't care how much money you make in the TFSA, they care how you made it. So if you're logged on to your broker 40 hours a week and trading all day every day they might take the position that you found a way to work a job 40 hours a week and not pay any tax on the money you make, which they would argue is an "advantage," although there are arguments against that. This is not legal advice, just information.
  26. The U.S. Roth IRA. This is a U.S. retirement savings tax shelter that is superficially similar to the TFSA but it has a number of limitations, including lack of cumulative contribution room, no ability for withdrawals to convert into contribution room in the following year, complex rules on who is eligible to contribute, limits on how much you can invest based on your income, income cutoffs on whether you can even use the Roth IRA at all, age limits that govern when and to what extent you can use it, and strict restrictions on reasons to withdraw funds prior to retirement (withdrawals prior to retirement can only be used to pay for private medical insurance, unpaid medical bills, adoption/childbirth expenses, certain educational expenses). The TFSA is totally unlike the Roth IRA in that it has none of these restrictions, therefore, the Roth IRA is not in any reasonable sense a valid comparison. The TFSA was modeled after the U.K. Investment Savings Account, which is the only comparable program to the TFSA.
  27. The UK Investment Savings Account. This is what the TFSA was based off of. Main difference is that the UK uses a 20,000 pound annual contribution allowance, use-it-or-lose-it. There are several different flavours of ISA, and some do have a limited recontribution feature but not to the extent of the TFSA.
  28. Is it smart to overcontribute to buy a really hot stock and just pay the 1% a month overcontribution penalty? If the CRA believes you made the overcontribution deliberately the penalty is 100% of the gains on the overcontribution, meaning, you can keep the overcontribution, or the loss, but the CRA takes the profit.
  29. Speculative stocks-- are they ok? There is no such thing as a "speculative stock." That term is not used by the CRA. Either the stock trades on an approved exchange or it doesn't. So if a really blue chip stock, the most stable company in the world, trades on an exchange that is not approved, you can't buy it in a TFSA. If a really speculative gold mining stock in Busang, Indonesia that has gone through the roof due to reports of enormous amounts of gold, but their geologist somehow just mysteriously fell out of a helicopter into the jungle and maybe there's no gold there at all, but it trades on an approved exchange, it is fine to buy it in a TFSA. Of course the risk of whether it turns out to be a good investment or not, is on you.
Remember, you're working for your money anyway, so if you can get free money from the government -- you should take it! Follow the rules because Canadians have ended up with a tax bill for not understanding the TFSA rules.
Appreciate the feedback everyone. Glad this basic post has been useful for many. The CRA does a good job of explaining TFSAs in detail at https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/cra-arc/formspubs/pub/rc4466/rc4466-19e.pdf

Unrelated but of Interest: The Margin Account

Note: if you are interested in how margin accounts work, I refer you to my post on margin accounts, where I use a straightforward explanation of the math behind margin accounts to try and give readers the confidence that they understand this powerful leveraging tool.

How Margin Loans Work - a Primer

submitted by KhingoBhingo to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]

I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? -74%

I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? -74%

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 31 -74%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr: purchased $100 of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, repeated in 2019 and 2020, update y'all monthly. July was very strong for crypto. For 2018 Top Ten: ADA finished the month on top. ETH and XRP also very strong. Overall, BTC still waaaay in the lead and is approaching break even point. Three cryptos (IOTA,NEM, DASH) have lost over 90% of value. Over three years, cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Thirty One – Down 74%

Summary after 31 months
Crypto came roaring back in July after an almost all-red June. Each crypto in the 2018 Top Ten finished July at a significantly higher value, led by ADA which ended the month +57%.

Question of the month:

Which member of all three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments turned 5 years old in July?

A) Bitcoin B) Ethereum C) Bitcoin Cash D) XRP
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and July Winners and Losers

Not a ton of movement for the 2018 Top Ten group this month. Cardano and XRP both climbed one position while NEM gained two, clawing itself back into the Top Thirty. Dash headed in the other direction, dropping two places in the rankings.
Considering all that has changed in the world of crypto since the beginning of 2018, it’s interesting to note that only four out of the ten cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, BSV, and newcomer CRO.
July Winners – It was a very strong month: all cryptos made significant gains in July. But for the third month in a row ADA outperformed the field, gaining +57% in July. ETH finished a close second, up +55% followed by XRP which gained +52%.
July Losers – Even during a good month, NEM can’t catch a break. Its +23% gain made it the worst performer of the 2018 Top Ten.
How has your favorite crypto fared over the first 31 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment?
Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (7) but look at this: thanks to its strong 2020 including three straight monthly wins, Cardano is now right behind BTC with 6 monthly wins. Which project has the most monthly losses? NEM stands alone with 6. Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month. It came close this month, gaining “only” +26%.

Overall update – BTC approaching break even point, second place ETH in the lonely middle, NEM still worst performing.

Although it wasn’t able to keep pace with its peers in July, BTC continues to slowly but surely approach its break even point. It is down about $1,500 (-12%) since my purchase in January 2018. My initial investment of $100 thirty-one months ago is now worth about $88.
Even though Ethereum has lost half of its value since the experiment began, it is all alone in second place: no other crypto is close.
NEM seems comfortable in its usual place, down at the bottom. It has lost -94% over the life of the experiment. That initial $100 investment in NEM is now worth $5.78. Dash and IOTA join NEM as the only three cryptos in the Top Ten that have lost at least -90% of their value since January 2018.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:


Total market cap since Jan 2018
The crypto market added about $82B in July, making up a ton of ground. The last time we saw a similar level in terms of overall crypto market cap was way back in the fifth month of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment: May 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

Le Bitdom since January 2018
Since Bitcoin receives much of the attention in the press, it may surprise the casual observer to learn that Bitcoin Dominance dropped quite a bit in July, especially considering BitDom had been stuck at roughly the same level for most of 2020. This signals an interest in altcoins and a willingness to buy into riskier cryptos.
Some context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained over $70 in July 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $260, down -74% from January 2018.
This sounds horrible but don’t hang yourself with a celibate rope: the 2018 return on investment is back where it was about a year ago. Take a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:
Yes, you may notice that the 2018 Top Ten portfolio has finished over half of the first thirty one months down at least -80%, but it’s nice to see the low -70s for a change.
So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -74%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let’s take a look:
So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,6965 ($260+ $1,722 +$1,713).
That’s up about +23% for the three combined portfolios, compared to -10% last month. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I added this metric this year. The previous high was +13% back in January 2020.
Having trouble visualizing? Don’t worry, I got what you need:
Combined ROI
So, a +23% gain by dropping $1k on whichever cryptos were in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years, fine. But what if I’d done the same with just one crypto? Bitcoin always wins, right? Thanks to Reddit user u/sebikun for the idea for a new metric and let’s take a look:
3-year club ROI
As you can see, only five cryptos have remained in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Best one to have gone all in on at this point in the Experiment? Ethereum, which would have nearly doubled. Worst choice? If I went with XRP, I would have been down -23%.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The US economy continued to recover in July: the S&P 500 is back up to pre-COVID levels. The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $220 had it been redirected to the S&P.
But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$220
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$310
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$10
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,540.
That is up over+18% since January 2018, compared to a +23% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a 5% swing in favor of the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios! As you’ll see in the table below, this is the first time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed the S&P had I taken a similar investment approach. This is a big turnaround from the 22% difference in favor of the S&P just last month.

3 x $1k crypto vs. S&P

Implications/Observations:

The 2018 Top Ten Cryptos have consistently under-performed when compared to the overall crypto market. This month, for example, the total market cap is down -29% from January 2018 compared to the -74% loss for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. At no point in the first 31 months of the Experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the 2018 Top Ten as a group have under-performed the overall market every single month.
This of course suggests that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked every crypto, or different cryptos: throwing that $1k on January 1st, 2018 to Bitcoin, for example, would have lost me -12% instead of -74%.
On the other hand, this bit of diversification has served me well compared to going all in on NEM, Dash, or IOTA, all of which are down at least -90%.
The follow-on Top Ten experiments in 2019 and 2020 have seen similar, but not identical, results. There have been a few examples of the Top Ten approach outperforming the overall market in the first 19 months of the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And up until the last few months of the most recent 2020 Top Ten Index Fund group of cryptocurrencies, this approach had outperformed the overall market 100% of the time.

Conclusion:

Crypto had an undoubtedly strong month in July, green across the board. Was this just a happy blip, are we in for some consolidation, or are we on the way up? Stay tuned.
Final words: take care of each other, wear your mask, wash your hands.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

And the Answer is…

B) Ethereum
Ethereum celebrated its 5 year anniversary on July 30th, 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why Geyser is Bad, liquidity pools are unintuitive, and you should hodl...

Alright folks, I am going to drop some information here that alot of people will find unintuitive. You might even get mad. You might even think its a sham... at least until you try it with a test account yourself.
So, you are an active trader. You like getting tendies, and you are willing to swing trade the rebases. You read the ampleforth paper, and you know what you are getting into... right? Not a chance bro. The ampleforth paper made a pretty big assumption. They assumed that most of the trades would be executed on an order book. NOT against a liquidity pool with an automated market making algorithm like uniswap. That makes a world of difference.
I made a post here about how the rebasing occurs on liquidity pools: https://www.reddit.com/AmpleforthCrypto/comments/hyqnmv/the_hidden_rebase_problembased/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
Basically, you cannot beat the liquidity pool because it will outspeed you every time. So the first assumption that ampleforth makes that fast traders have an advantage is GONE when liquidity pools enter the equation. Secondly, the uniswap price depends upon oracles, and because uniswap has beat the rest of the market to the real price, ALL price actions elsewhere will have an outsized effect on uniswap. Specifically, they will have double impact. Worse yet, the websites looking at uniswap prices like coingecko are not live, and as a result, people never see how low its really going until the look to execute a trade on uniswap.
So, the other day, I had 2.4*X eth. Now, I have 1.9*x eth a day later. I would have done well to sell before the rebase, and buy in afterwards. But, you can't see this on any of the major charts because suprise.... uniswap doesn't export data to trading view. But is this true for all rebases? Not really. There are rebases that are safe to catch, but there are also rebases that are unsafe to catch. As a trader, its your job to figure out which is which. Today's rebase was safe. Yesterdays rebase was not.
Next up... GEYSER.
Geyser is not profitable, and here is why. Over the course of a day, you will make .01-.02% of your value in geyser drops. However, you had to give up both 50% of your rebase coins, which is 5% of lost value. The ONLY time geyser is more profitable than hodling is if the rebase is going to give you less than double what the geyser drop would have given you. The only time it makes sense to be in the liquidity pool is when you think ample is going to be trending down or flat. This means locking/unlocking your stake and unless you got over 20k ampl the gas fees will eat you alive faster than you generate geyser profits.
TLDR: If you are on uniswap the optimal strategy during the downturns is to sell all ample for eth. During consolidation, if you are a whale, you geyser. If you are a minnow, you hodl. During upswings you hodl. During rebases, you evaluate if the market is overpriced if its overpriced, you sell for eth, and rebuy after the 30-40% crash. If the market is oversold, you hodl your ampl. This is the way.
submitted by Ghostcarapace3 to AmpleforthCrypto [link] [comments]

[H] switch (cuphead, Risk of Rain 2) & Steam games w/prices (Void Bastards, Aoe: Planetfall,Supraland, Hitman2,Hellblade,Jurasssic World, Xcom2 ,MegaMan games, Space Pirate Trainer& more 100+ total) [W] Steam Funds, CSGO/TF2 keys, PP/Venmo/Cashapp/Crypto/Amazon, Wishlist, AC:Valhalla, Horizon Zero

I’m NA/US region
I try to price my games based on lowest CD key prices. If you see a lower price let me know and I may be able to beat or match the price
I enjoy rougelikes and difficult RPG games with lots of loot and class customization. Also a fan of survival and crafting as well. My wishlist is below but I'm open to offers as well.
Ask me about buying complete humble choice, may be willing to sell all unlocks for lump price :)
PROFILE WISHLIST INVENTORY Direct Trade Offer Venmo Paypal Fee Calculator

Payment Rules

  • I DO NOT accept F&F only goods and services
  • You cover all fee's, use the above Fee Calculator link, I ask that you tack on .10 cents as it seems to always be off by that much.
  • Venmo has no fee's so price is just what it is.
  • I only provide CD keys, no HB links.
  • If you're paying with anything other than venmo/paypal/crypto I"ll want some overpay
Eshop (US and Canada only)
Games (eshop) USD Price
Cuphead $15
Risk of Rain 2 $20
Steam Gifts
Games (Steam Gifts) USD Price
Blightbound $15
Contraption Maker $2.50
Dead Bits $2.50
Edge of Space $5
Gun Monkeys removed from steam..rare? ?
Lichdom Battlemage $5
Pool Nation $4
Humble Bundle / Misc Keys
 I will only provide CD keys 
Games (HB / Misc Keys) USD Price
11-11 Memories Retold $1
60 Parsecs! $5
Absolver $3
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 $3
Aegis Defenders $.50
AGE OF WONDERS: PLANETFALL - DELUXE EDITION $7
Agony + Agony Unrated $4
The Adventure Pals $2
AI War: Fleet Command $ 1.25
Almost There: The Platformer $2
Ancestors Legacy $8
Another World – 20th Anniversary Edition $2
Arma 2 $1.50
Avernum 3: Ruined World $1.50
Aurion: Legacy of the Kori-Odan $1
Bad North: Jotunn Edition $1
The Bard's Tale IV: Director's Cut $3
Basingstoke $2
Battle Chasers: Nightwar $3
Battlestar Galactica Deadlock $3.50
Bear With Me - Collector's Edition ?
Beat Cop $1
Beat Hazard 2 $2
Blood: Fresh Supply $2
Bleed 2 $2.25
Book of Demons $3
Boundless $5
BUTCHER $2
Call of Duty: WWII - endowment bravery pack offer
Carnival Games VR $2
Carrier Command: Gaea Mission offer
Chasm $2
Circle Empires $4
Sid Meier's Civilization® III: Complete $1
Concrete Jungle $1
Cosmic Trip $3
Crazy Machines 3 $2.50
Crazy Taxi $1.50
Cryofall $2
Dark Future: Blood Red States $.75
Death's Gambit $2
Desert Child $1
Devil May Cry® 4 Special Edition $9
DiRT Rally 2.0 - H2 RWD Double Pack .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - Opel Manta 400 .50 / or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - The Porsche 911 RGT .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
Don't Escape: 4 Days to Survive $1
Downwell $1
Driftland: The Magic Revival $2.50
Dungeons 3 $4
Duskers $2
EARTHLOCK $2
ENSLAVED Odyssey to the West $1
ETHEREAL $.75
Evergarden $1.50
Fate Hunters $10
Felix The Reaper $2.50
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition (cd key) $5
Forced Showdown (CD KEY!) $4
FORGED BATTALION $1.50
Fluffy Horde $.50
Full Metal Furies $4
Free Ones $1
Gato Roboto $1
God's Trigger offer
The Golf Club™ 2019 featuring PGA TOUR $5
Gremlins Inc ?
GRID Ultimate Edition $5
Hard Reset Redux $2
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice $6.50
Hitman 2 $9
Horace $1
How to Survive 2 $2.50
I'm not a monster $2
The Journey Down: Chapter Three ??
JURASSIC WORLD EVOLUTION + Deluxe Dinosaur Pack $8
Kingdom: New Lands $5
The King's Bird $1
Knightin'+ $2
Kona $5
Late Shift $2.50
Love is Dead $2
Mages of Mystralia $2
Mega Man Legacy Collection $2
MEN OF WAR: ASSAULT SQUAD 2 - WAR CHEST EDITION $3.50
The Messenger $2
Metal Unit $1
Millennium: A New Hope .50 cents
Moonlighter $8
Monster Prom $4
NAIRI: Tower of Shirin $2
NBA 2K Playgrounds 2 $5
NEOVERSE $1.50
NICHE - A GENETICS SURVIVAL GAME $2.50
Niffelheim $1.50
Night Call $2
Operation Flashpoint: Red River $1
Opus Magnum $3
Original War $.50
Override: Mech City Brawl $2
Outland - Special Edition $5
Pacify $2
Paper Sorcerer $3.75
Paradigm $2.50
Paratopic $1
Payday 2 $4
PLANET ALPHA $3
Project Warlock $4
Pound of Ground $1
Puss! $1.50
Regions of Ruin may keep
Railware Empire $5
RAD $5
Rapture Rejects + Safari DLC $3
Regular Human Basketball $.50
RESIDENT EVIL 2 - All In-game Rewards Unlock $2
Resident Evil Revelations 2: Episode 1 (Penal Colony) $1.50
Rise of Industry $3
Road Redemption $7
Roller Coaster Tycoon Classic $2.50
Rollers of the Realm .50 cents
Rusty Lake: Roots $1.25
She Remembered Caterpillars $1
Shenmue I & II $5
Shenzhen I/O $3
Shiness: The Lightning Kingdom $3
Shoppe Keep 2 $2
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War $2
Slipstream $1.50
Smashbox Arena $3
Songbringer $1
Space Pirate Trainer $7
Spiral Scouts $.75
State of Mind $3
Staxel $7
Steel Rats $2.50
STRIDER $1.50
Strikers Edge $5
Stronghold Crusader 2 $3
Sudden Strike 4 $3
Super Daryl Deluxe $4
Supraland $4
Sword Omen Legacy $.75
The Swords of Ditto: Momo's Curse $1
Swords and Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon $4
Take On Helicopters $1
Take on Mars $1
Tannenberg $4
This Is the Police 2 $3
The Town of Light $1
The Waslking Dead (Telltale) $2
The Walking Dead 400 Days $1
The walking Dead: Michonne $2
The Walking Dead Season Two $3
Train Valley $1
Tricky Towers $2
Truberbrook $4
True Fear: Forsaken Souls $2
Turok 2: Seeds of Evil $3
Verlet Swing $1.50
Void Bastards $7
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War $3.50
Warsaw $1.50
Whispers of a Machine $1
X-Morph: Defense $.75
XCOM® 2 + XCOM® 2: Reinforcement Pack and XCOM® 2: Resistance Warrior Pack $8
Ylands $2
Yuppie Psycho $1
Yoku's Island Express $3.50
SGS Rep IGS Rep GCX Rep

Card Trading

 I may not accept EVERY offer 
  • Same Set | 1:1+ background or emoticon from you
  • Cross Set | 1:2
submitted by brand0n to GameTrade [link] [comments]

[H] switch (cuphead, Risk of Rain 2) & Steam games w/prices (Void Bastards, Aoe: Planetfall,Supraland, Hitman2,Hellblade, Dragons Dogma, Jurasssic World, Xcom 2 ,MegaMan games, Space Pirate Trainer& more 100+ total) [W] Steam Funds, CSGO/TF2 keys, PP/Venmo/Crypto/Amazon, Wishlist, AC: Valhalla

I’m NA/US region
I try to price my games based on lowest CD key prices. If you see a lower price let me know and I may be able to beat or match the price
I enjoy rougelikes and difficult RPG games with lots of loot and class customization. Also a fan of survival and crafting as well. My wishlist is below but I'm open to offers as well.
Ask me about buying complete humble choice, may be willing to sell all unlocks for lump price :)
PROFILE WISHLIST INVENTORY Direct Trade Offer Venmo Paypal Fee Calculator

Payment Rules

  • I DO NOT accept F&F only goods and services
  • You cover all fee's, use the above Fee Calculator link, I ask that you tack on .10 cents as it seems to always be off by that much.
  • Venmo has no fee's so price is just what it is.
  • I only provide CD keys, no HB links.
  • If you're paying with anything other than venmo/paypal/crypto I"ll want some overpay
Eshop (US and Canada only)
Games (eshop) USD Price
Cuphead $15
Risk of Rain 2 $20
Steam Gifts
Games (Steam Gifts) USD Price
Blightbound $15
Contraption Maker $2.50
Dead Bits $2.50
Edge of Space $5
Gun Monkeys removed from steam..rare? ?
Lichdom Battlemage $5
Pool Nation $4
Humble Bundle / Misc Keys
 I will only provide CD keys 
Games (HB / Misc Keys) USD Price
11-11 Memories Retold $1
60 Parsecs! $5
Absolver $3
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 $3
Aegis Defenders $.50
AGE OF WONDERS: PLANETFALL - DELUXE EDITION $7
Agony + Agony Unrated $4
The Adventure Pals $2
AI War: Fleet Command $ 1.25
Almost There: The Platformer $2
Ancestors Legacy $8
Another World – 20th Anniversary Edition $2
Arma 2 $1.50
Avernum 3: Ruined World $1.50
Aurion: Legacy of the Kori-Odan $1
Bad North: Jotunn Edition $1
The Bard's Tale IV: Director's Cut $3
Basingstoke $2
Battle Chasers: Nightwar $3
Battlestar Galactica Deadlock $3.50
Bear With Me - Collector's Edition ?
Beat Cop $1
Beat Hazard 2 $2
Blood: Fresh Supply $2
Bleed 2 $2.25
Book of Demons $3
Boundless $5
BUTCHER $2
Call of Duty: WWII - endowment bravery pack offer
Carnival Games VR $2
Carrier Command: Gaea Mission offer
Chasm $2
Circle Empires $4
Sid Meier's Civilization® III: Complete $1
Concrete Jungle $1
Cosmic Trip $3
Crazy Machines 3 $2.50
Crazy Taxi $1.50
Cryofall $2
Dark Future: Blood Red States $.75
Death's Gambit $2
Desert Child $1
Devil May Cry® 4 Special Edition $9
DiRT Rally 2.0 - H2 RWD Double Pack .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - Opel Manta 400 .50 / or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - The Porsche 911 RGT .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
Don't Escape: 4 Days to Survive $1
Downwell $1
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen $7
Driftland: The Magic Revival $2.50
Dungeons 3 $4
Duskers $2
EARTHLOCK $2
ENSLAVED Odyssey to the West $1
ETHEREAL $.75
Evergarden $1.50
Fate Hunters $10
Felix The Reaper $2.50
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition (cd key) $5
Forced Showdown (CD KEY!) $4
FORGED BATTALION $1.50
Fluffy Horde $.50
Full Metal Furies $4
Free Ones $1
Gato Roboto $1
God's Trigger offer
The Golf Club™ 2019 featuring PGA TOUR $5
Gremlins Inc ?
GRID Ultimate Edition $5
Hard Reset Redux $2
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice $6.50
Hitman 2 $9
Horace $1
How to Survive 2 $2.50
I'm not a monster $2
The Journey Down: Chapter Three ??
JURASSIC WORLD EVOLUTION + Deluxe Dinosaur Pack $8
Kingdom: New Lands $5
The King's Bird $1
Knightin'+ $2
Kona $5
Late Shift $2.50
Love is Dead $2
Mages of Mystralia $2
Mega Man Legacy Collection $2
Mega Man X Legacy Collection $6
MEN OF WAR: ASSAULT SQUAD 2 - WAR CHEST EDITION $3.50
The Messenger $2
Metal Unit $1
Millennium: A New Hope .50 cents
Moonlighter $8
Monster Prom $4
NAIRI: Tower of Shirin $2
NBA 2K Playgrounds 2 $5
NEOVERSE $1.50
NICHE - A GENETICS SURVIVAL GAME $2.50
Niffelheim $1.50
Night Call $2
Operation Flashpoint: Red River $1
Opus Magnum $3
Original War $.50
Override: Mech City Brawl $2
Outland - Special Edition $5
Pacify $2
Paper Sorcerer $3.75
Paradigm $2.50
Paratopic $1
Payday 2 $4
PLANET ALPHA $3
Project Warlock $4
Pound of Ground $1
Puss! $1.50
Regions of Ruin may keep
Railware Empire $5
RAD $5
Rapture Rejects + Safari DLC $3
Regular Human Basketball $.50
RESIDENT EVIL 2 - All In-game Rewards Unlock $2
Resident Evil Revelations 2: Episode 1 (Penal Colony) $1.50
Rise of Industry $3
Road Redemption $7
Roller Coaster Tycoon Classic $2.50
Rollers of the Realm .50 cents
Rusty Lake: Roots $1.25
She Remembered Caterpillars $1
Shenmue I & II $5
Shenzhen I/O $3
Shiness: The Lightning Kingdom $3
Shoppe Keep 2 $2
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War $2
Slipstream $1.50
Smashbox Arena $3
Songbringer $1
Space Pirate Trainer $7
Spiral Scouts $.75
State of Mind $3
Staxel $7
Steel Rats $2.50
STRIDER $1.50
Strikers Edge $5
Stronghold Crusader 2 $3
Sudden Strike 4 $3
Super Daryl Deluxe $4
Supraland $4
Sword Omen Legacy $.75
The Swords of Ditto: Momo's Curse $1
Swords and Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon $4
Take On Helicopters $1
Take on Mars $1
Tannenberg $4
This Is the Police 2 $3
The Town of Light $1
The Waslking Dead (Telltale) $2
The Walking Dead 400 Days $1
The walking Dead: Michonne $2
The Walking Dead Season Two $3
Train Valley $1
Tricky Towers $2
Truberbrook $4
True Fear: Forsaken Souls $2
Turok 2: Seeds of Evil $3
Verlet Swing $1.50
Void Bastards $7
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War $3.50
Warsaw $1.50
Whispers of a Machine $1
X-Morph: Defense $.75
XCOM® 2 + XCOM® 2: Reinforcement Pack and XCOM® 2: Resistance Warrior Pack $8
Ylands $2
Yuppie Psycho $1
Yoku's Island Express $3.50
SGS Rep IGS Rep GCX Rep

Card Trading

 I may not accept EVERY offer 
  • Same Set | 1:1+ background or emoticon from you
  • Cross Set | 1:2
submitted by brand0n to indiegameswap [link] [comments]

S&P 1700 within 6 Months


This is a new post after some interest in a comment why I believed the S&P is going to 1700.
Update 3: I am going to limit my answers in the comments guys; as the post becomes more popular it is becoming more diluted with snark etc. I don't expect anyone to follow my opinions; I just want to share one aspect of why I am making the trades I am. I maybe wrong. Random walk and all that..
Original Disclaimer: This is based on historical precedence and we are in unprecedented times but, with history as our guide a strong argument can be made for the S&P to decline to a level that is currently inconceivable. I have disclosed all my positions near the bottom.
Update 1: Slightly long; happy to be challenged in the comments, it is late in the UK (2am) so may tidy it up and add more references and charts tomorrow. Update 2: Have expanded the post to answer as many comments and requests for references wherever possible and tagged in the requestors.

Intro: Are we in a recession?

If you believe so, or that we are heading into a recession then there are four things needed to support a genuine rally out of a recession

We are missing 2 out of those 4 criteria; the overwhelming monetary and fiscal policy (world-records) are compensating for lack of positive indicators and volatile and bullish pricing.

What do you mean by pricing?

It can be argued that the current price of stocks is not discounting for the acute and likely chronic harm to consumer sentiment and spending power. For example; the UK clothing retailer Next Group closed their bricks and mortar stores (share price increased 4%) then they cancelled all online shopping (share price increased 3%) and finally they cancelled all orders with their supply chain (shares leapt 12.8% during the rally.) There is the massive amount of second, third and fourth order effects that this one company does to the UK economy (and Turkish factories). Suppliers, shipping, design, marketing etc all cancelled and the staff furloughed.
This is one example but the indexes are currently full of similar examples and some analysts are ringing the alarm bells.

Lazard Asset Management are concerned that the pandemic “will persist longer than many investors suspect and that the economic damage will be deeper and potentially longer-lasting”.
Reddit is quick to mention that stonks only go up but there is some truth to that sentiment at present since any negative factors are dismissed as being priced in and all positive factors are heralded as a cause for stocks to rally. If priced in was accurate then we would not see record-beating market rallies back to back. 10% volatility swings over 48 hours is the very definition of not priced in.
There is evidence to suggest that, well, the bullish sentiment is wrong and mainly because it is retail investors being taken for a ride whilst funds re-balance and offload.
Retail traders "buying the dips" is normally a contrarian signal, meaning that it's time to sell. This section is for u/lntoIerant in response to a comment.

Edit to answer some comments about this portion thus far.

Do retail investors move the market?
Are retail investors buying in greater volumes?
Are retail investors dumb money?

What does this have to do with the S&P dividend and the EPS?


Major indexes are comprised of stocks that pay handsome dividends; normally 2% yield a year. The companies have reached their limit of growth (HSBC haven't discovered 5 million new customers and Shell are not finding new fossil fuels) so investors hold the stock for income-seeking reasons.
The FTSE 100 was priced in to generate £89 billion in dividends for 2019 and £90 billion+ in 2020. That has largely collapsed.
The only companies that pay dividends are those taking on debt to do so like Shell. And they have; a 10Bn credit line to maintain dividends. The Bank of Englandhad to slap 5 UK banks from issuing dividends at this time. That means that their primary valuations as income-generating stocks are questionable...
...especially since the dividends are not expected to return to the 2020 levels for another 10 years now. Edit to add: This portion is taken from the market report by BNY Mellon. You can see the chart here. The analyst is John Velis of BNY. Thanks to u/flash_aaaah_ahhhhh for prompting me.

“By 2021, the market expects dividends per share for the S&P 500 to be down to under $38 per share (a staggering 41 per cent drop from recent highs of approximately $63 per share) and then to start slowly rising again. Going out 10 years to 2030, the expectation is that dividends will just about recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.”

Main body: Onto the S&P

In 2021 the market expects the dividends per share for the S&P to be reduced to $38 per share. That is priced in and common knowledge.
That is a 41% drop from the recent highs of $63 a share and seems alarming for income seeking investors since we are not expected to recover to those prices for 8-10 years. Source.
But DataTrek have noted that we are still currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year earnings of $122 a share.
Dividends per share normally don't fall as far as earnings per share. But they are inverted at present.
For the S&P to be trading at 2,650 level (or even higher) it means the market does not believe the pandemic or recession will have any long-term damage. That puts us squarely at odds with items 3 and 4 in our list of factors needed to exit a bear market.

Talk to me about 2008!

Thanks to u/mister_woody for asking for more data.

In other recessions, including 2008, the dividend price per share drops approximately 12-15% but the earnings per share drop by considerably more; as much as 85%.
That means that in 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bear market; the dividends per share dropped by a lower percentage amount than the total index value drop.
You can see that in this chart here.

Right now, we have the reverse. Dividend share drop in this market is 41% (which is chilling) and market drop was approximately only 30% and rallying heavily back to the mid-20's only. That makes no financial sense unless the assets were being propped up by buyers...

If the S&P follows the same playbook at 2008-9, then we would expect to see levels of around 1400 at the bottom but that seems extremely bearish expecting that this crisis is worse than 2008.
If previous indications hold true, then we would expect the S&P to drop by approximately 50-60%ish at the true bottom to reflect the 41% decrease in expected shares plus additional discounts and negative market sentiment.
In reality, we are probably likely to pull back to between 13X and 15X trailing average which puts the S&P between 1600 (low side) and 1800 (high side).

You are putting a lot of faith in a re-run of the 2008 crisis

I am. No doubt about it. After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009.

New market indicators

Since I wrote this post, the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day.
Thank you to theTwitter feed of Jim Bianco for this: Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money). The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08.
This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low.
Bezinga are also playing up the 2008 similarities.

Why is bullish sentiment so wrong?

The negative reports are so wildly negative that the almost defy belief. We are dealing with insane numbers way beyond our traditional frame of reasoning. This is topped only by the insanity of the scale of quantitative easing. Less than a year ago, a small movement in the non-farm payrolls would lead to a 2-3% move in the markets; now we are hitting 700K jobs lost, a truly ugly number and the market rallies hugely. Future economic students will study this to try and understand what was happening.
In the space of weeks the majority of the Western economies have swung to being effectively state-sponsored, centralised economies and no one really knows how to unwind these positions.
It is impossible to reconcile being a bull with a centralised state economy and blue-chip stocks that refuse to pay dividends but the share price remains at the same levels as when they paid a 2% yield.
The UK forecast is for the deepest contraction since 1900. Business surveys have shown activity crashing faster in March than during the financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics has published experimental research on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.

With entire swaths of the economy having shut down “traditional forecasting methods become irrelevant”, warned Chiara Zangarelli, economist at investment bank Nomura.
Michelle Girard, economist at NatWest, said that while there was huge uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the contraction in gross domestic product in the second quarter, “there is little doubt that it will be off the scale”
That is not a bullish sentiment. It means markets are acting irrationally since fundamentals are being dismissed as priced-in. In reality; nothing is priced in.

Disclosure


Spreads
Equities
Currency

Edit to add: So, your entire thesis is totally destroyed if companies keep paying dividends?

Yes.
In a nutshell.
But something else will be destroyed; the western taxpayer and future growth.

CEO said 'every pound we receive [in rates relief] will be invested in ensuring Tesco is able to support British shoppers...' That is tax payers paying a subsidy to a free-market company for the ability to shop...and also...
Mr Lewis said that the needs of savers and pension funds also needed to be considered in the debate around dividends. “We’ve thought long and hard about our responsibilities here . . . we are in a strong position to pay out for the benefit of those people

Edit to add: What about the FED and stimulus


u/tauriel81 and u/aliveintucson325 and u/100PERCENTYOLO_VEQT
OK - to truly test my own assumptions; here is my argument AGAINST my position.
The Fed have not quite printed money as Reddit loves to meme. They have issued liquidity and central banks worldwide have allowed banks to relax their requirement to hold reserves of cash. That injects money into the business world by allowing lending and borrowing to continue. It also reduces theoretical risk since the models are back within tolerance.
When the time comes they will remove the credits gradually without causing hyperinflation. They do this by paying banks not to lend back into the system by holding a % of their assets at the Federal Reserve. So they pay the banks but the banks keep the deposit at the Fed and don't pass on the liquidity to potential borrowers..gradually and sustainably.
https://www.aier.org/article/powells-new-monetary-regime/
That means the borrower of the future (home purchasers, entreprenuers etc) will have very few credit facilities available so RIP to the long-term economic growth.
We also have unprecedented government support for citizens. The largest social security welfare plan since WW2, especially in Europe.
If you believe that the Western economies can weather this storm using the bridging devices by central banks then it pays to dollar cost average into the market and keep buying the dips as a retail investor.
Lots of buoyant news from European nations and China about the slowing pandemic is overwhelming the negative leading and lagging economic indicators about economic data.
If you believe the economy can return to normal within 36 months, then it pay to be bullish and invest.
If you are day-trading, swing-trading or short-term options trading then the overwhelming market moves are likely to crush people as the system flexes under lots of volatility. You are also likely prioritising the negative news and technical analysis in your filter bubble and de-prioritising the positive news particularly when that news is fiscal or monetary policy since those things are dry, boring and incomprehensible half the time.
So you miss Fed backstops critical bankingi and instead hear UK Prime Minister in intensive care.
If you want to know what is going on...

Decide where you making a prediction. Plan your trade, trade your plan.
How do the FED take money back out of the economy?
They FED purchase the security initially to then sell it back to the asset-holder later. So the balance of credit-deficit merely swaps but by paying a small premium on the excesses that they hold, they can cushion the inflation or deflation of the currency.
So, they effectively give the bank liquidity and then remove that liquidity later by passing the asset back...but also provide a small premium to cushion the blow; 50% of the premium is then held on Federal Reserve books so that the market is not flooded with new money.
The FED previously reduced their balance sheet from $4.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion but it remains to be seen if they can unwind a position of this size.

TL:DR



submitted by DongusMcLongus to StockMarket [link] [comments]

[H] switch (cuphead, Risk of Rain 2) & Steam games w/prices (Void Bastards, Aoe: Planetfall,Supraland, Hitman2,Hellblade,Jurasssic World, Xcom2 ,MegaMan games, Space Pirate Trainer& more 100+ total) [W] Steam Funds, CSGO/TF2 keys, PP/Venmo/Cashapp/Crypto/Amazon, Wishlist, AC:Valhalla, Horizon Zero

I’m NA/US region
I try to price my games based on lowest CD key prices. If you see a lower price let me know and I may be able to beat or match the price
I enjoy rougelikes and difficult RPG games with lots of loot and class customization. Also a fan of survival and crafting as well. My wishlist is below but I'm open to offers as well.
Ask me about buying complete humble choice, may be willing to sell all unlocks for lump price :)
PROFILE WISHLIST INVENTORY Direct Trade Offer Venmo Paypal Fee Calculator

Payment Rules

  • I DO NOT accept F&F only goods and services
  • You cover all fee's, use the above Fee Calculator link, I ask that you tack on .10 cents as it seems to always be off by that much.
  • Venmo has no fee's so price is just what it is.
  • I only provide CD keys, no HB links.
  • If you're paying with anything other than venmo/paypal/crypto I"ll want some overpay
Eshop (US and Canada only)
Games (eshop) USD Price
Cuphead $15
Risk of Rain 2 $20
Steam Gifts
Games (Steam Gifts) USD Price
Blightbound $15
Contraption Maker $2.50
Dead Bits $2.50
Edge of Space $5
Gun Monkeys removed from steam..rare? ?
Lichdom Battlemage $5
Pool Nation $4
Humble Bundle / Misc Keys
 I will only provide CD keys 
Games (HB / Misc Keys) USD Price
11-11 Memories Retold $1
60 Parsecs! $5
Absolver $3
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 $3
Aegis Defenders $.50
AGE OF WONDERS: PLANETFALL - DELUXE EDITION $7
Agony + Agony Unrated $4
The Adventure Pals $2
AI War: Fleet Command $ 1.25
Almost There: The Platformer $2
Ancestors Legacy $8
Another World – 20th Anniversary Edition $2
Arma 2 $1.50
Avernum 3: Ruined World $1.50
Aurion: Legacy of the Kori-Odan $1
Bad North: Jotunn Edition $1
The Bard's Tale IV: Director's Cut $3
Basingstoke $2
Battle Chasers: Nightwar $3
Battlestar Galactica Deadlock $3.50
Bear With Me - Collector's Edition ?
Beat Cop $1
Beat Hazard 2 $2
Blood: Fresh Supply $2
Bleed 2 $2.25
Book of Demons $3
Boundless $5
BUTCHER $2
Call of Duty: WWII - endowment bravery pack offer
Carnival Games VR $2
Carrier Command: Gaea Mission offer
Chasm $2
Circle Empires $4
Sid Meier's Civilization® III: Complete $1
Concrete Jungle $1
Cosmic Trip $3
Crazy Machines 3 $2.50
Crazy Taxi $1.50
Cryofall $2
Dark Future: Blood Red States $.75
Death's Gambit $2
Desert Child $1
Devil May Cry® 4 Special Edition $9
DiRT Rally 2.0 - H2 RWD Double Pack .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - Opel Manta 400 .50 / or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - The Porsche 911 RGT .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
Don't Escape: 4 Days to Survive $1
Downwell $1
Driftland: The Magic Revival $2.50
Dungeons 3 $4
Duskers $2
EARTHLOCK $2
ENSLAVED Odyssey to the West $1
ETHEREAL $.75
Evergarden $1.50
Fate Hunters $10
Felix The Reaper $2.50
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition (cd key) $5
Forced Showdown (CD KEY!) $4
FORGED BATTALION $1.50
Fluffy Horde $.50
Full Metal Furies $4
Free Ones $1
Gato Roboto $1
God's Trigger offer
The Golf Club™ 2019 featuring PGA TOUR $5
Gremlins Inc ?
GRID Ultimate Edition $5
Hard Reset Redux $2
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice $6.50
Hitman 2 $9
Horace $1
How to Survive 2 $2.50
I'm not a monster $2
The Journey Down: Chapter Three ??
JURASSIC WORLD EVOLUTION + Deluxe Dinosaur Pack $8
Kingdom: New Lands $5
The King's Bird $1
Knightin'+ $2
Kona $5
Late Shift $2.50
Love is Dead $2
Mages of Mystralia $2
Mega Man Legacy Collection $2
Mega Man X Legacy Collection $6
MEN OF WAR: ASSAULT SQUAD 2 - WAR CHEST EDITION $3.50
The Messenger $2
Metal Unit $1
Millennium: A New Hope .50 cents
Moonlighter $8
Monster Prom $4
NAIRI: Tower of Shirin $2
NBA 2K Playgrounds 2 $5
NEOVERSE $1.50
NICHE - A GENETICS SURVIVAL GAME $2.50
Niffelheim $1.50
Night Call $2
Operation Flashpoint: Red River $1
Opus Magnum $3
Original War $.50
Override: Mech City Brawl $2
Outland - Special Edition $5
Pacify $2
Paper Sorcerer $3.75
Paradigm $2.50
Paratopic $1
Payday 2 $4
PLANET ALPHA $3
Project Warlock $4
Pound of Ground $1
Puss! $1.50
Regions of Ruin may keep
Railware Empire $5
RAD $5
Rapture Rejects + Safari DLC $3
Regular Human Basketball $.50
RESIDENT EVIL 2 - All In-game Rewards Unlock $2
Resident Evil Revelations 2: Episode 1 (Penal Colony) $1.50
Rise of Industry $3
Road Redemption $7
Roller Coaster Tycoon Classic $2.50
Rollers of the Realm .50 cents
Rusty Lake: Roots $1.25
She Remembered Caterpillars $1
Shenmue I & II $5
Shenzhen I/O $3
Shiness: The Lightning Kingdom $3
Shoppe Keep 2 $2
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War $2
Slipstream $1.50
Smashbox Arena $3
Songbringer $1
Space Pirate Trainer $7
Spiral Scouts $.75
State of Mind $3
Staxel $7
Steel Rats $2.50
STRIDER $1.50
Strikers Edge $5
Stronghold Crusader 2 $3
Sudden Strike 4 $3
Super Daryl Deluxe $4
Supraland $4
Sword Omen Legacy $.75
The Swords of Ditto: Momo's Curse $1
Swords and Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon $4
Take On Helicopters $1
Take on Mars $1
Tannenberg $4
This Is the Police 2 $3
The Town of Light $1
The Waslking Dead (Telltale) $2
The Walking Dead 400 Days $1
The walking Dead: Michonne $2
The Walking Dead Season Two $3
Train Valley $1
Tricky Towers $2
Truberbrook $4
True Fear: Forsaken Souls $2
Turok 2: Seeds of Evil $3
Verlet Swing $1.50
Void Bastards $7
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War $3.50
Warsaw $1.50
Whispers of a Machine $1
X-Morph: Defense $.75
XCOM® 2 + XCOM® 2: Reinforcement Pack and XCOM® 2: Resistance Warrior Pack $8
Ylands $2
Yuppie Psycho $1
Yoku's Island Express $3.50
SGS Rep IGS Rep GCX Rep

Card Trading

 I may not accept EVERY offer 
  • Same Set | 1:1+ background or emoticon from you
  • Cross Set | 1:2
submitted by brand0n to indiegameswap [link] [comments]

[H] switch (cuphead, Risk of Rain 2) & Steam games w/prices (Void Bastards, Aoe: Planetfall,Supraland, Hitman2,Hellblade,Jurasssic World, Xcom2 ,MegaMan games, Space Pirate Trainer& more 100+ total) [W] Steam Funds, CSGO/TF2 keys, PP/Venmo/Cashapp/Crypto/Amazon, Wishlist, AC:Valhalla, Horizon Zero

I’m NA/US region
I try to price my games based on lowest CD key prices. If you see a lower price let me know and I may be able to beat or match the price
I enjoy rougelikes and difficult RPG games with lots of loot and class customization. Also a fan of survival and crafting as well. My wishlist is below but I'm open to offers as well.
Ask me about buying complete humble choice, may be willing to sell all unlocks for lump price :)
PROFILE WISHLIST INVENTORY Direct Trade Offer Venmo Paypal Fee Calculator

Payment Rules

  • I DO NOT accept F&F only goods and services
  • You cover all fee's, use the above Fee Calculator link, I ask that you tack on .10 cents as it seems to always be off by that much.
  • Venmo has no fee's so price is just what it is.
  • I only provide CD keys, no HB links.
  • If you're paying with anything other than venmo/paypal/crypto I"ll want some overpay
Eshop (US and Canada only)
Games (eshop) USD Price
Cuphead $15
Risk of Rain 2 $20
Steam Gifts
Games (Steam Gifts) USD Price
Blightbound $15
Contraption Maker $2.50
Dead Bits $2.50
Edge of Space $5
Gun Monkeys removed from steam..rare? ?
Lichdom Battlemage $5
Pool Nation $4
Humble Bundle / Misc Keys
 I will only provide CD keys 
Games (HB / Misc Keys) USD Price
11-11 Memories Retold $1
60 Parsecs! $5
Absolver $3
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 $3
Aegis Defenders $.50
AGE OF WONDERS: PLANETFALL - DELUXE EDITION $7
Agony + Agony Unrated $4
The Adventure Pals $2
AI War: Fleet Command $ 1.25
Almost There: The Platformer $2
Ancestors Legacy $8
Another World – 20th Anniversary Edition $2
Arma 2 $1.50
Avernum 3: Ruined World $1.50
Aurion: Legacy of the Kori-Odan $1
Bad North: Jotunn Edition $1
The Bard's Tale IV: Director's Cut $3
Basingstoke $2
Battle Chasers: Nightwar $3
Battlestar Galactica Deadlock $3.50
Bear With Me - Collector's Edition ?
Beat Cop $1
Beat Hazard 2 $2
Blood: Fresh Supply $2
Bleed 2 $2.25
Book of Demons $3
Boundless $5
BUTCHER $2
Call of Duty: WWII - endowment bravery pack offer
Carnival Games VR $2
Carrier Command: Gaea Mission offer
Chasm $2
Circle Empires $4
Sid Meier's Civilization® III: Complete $1
Concrete Jungle $1
Cosmic Trip $3
Crazy Machines 3 $2.50
Crazy Taxi $1.50
Cryofall $2
Dark Future: Blood Red States $.75
Death's Gambit $2
Desert Child $1
Devil May Cry® 4 Special Edition $9
DiRT Rally 2.0 - H2 RWD Double Pack .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - Opel Manta 400 .50 / or all 3 DLC for $1
DiRT Rally 2.0 - The Porsche 911 RGT .50 or all 3 DLC for $1
Don't Escape: 4 Days to Survive $1
Downwell $1
Driftland: The Magic Revival $2.50
Dungeons 3 $4
Duskers $2
EARTHLOCK $2
ENSLAVED Odyssey to the West $1
ETHEREAL $.75
Evergarden $1.50
Fate Hunters $10
Felix The Reaper $2.50
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition (cd key) $5
Forced Showdown (CD KEY!) $4
FORGED BATTALION $1.50
Fluffy Horde $.50
Full Metal Furies $4
Free Ones $1
Gato Roboto $1
God's Trigger offer
The Golf Club™ 2019 featuring PGA TOUR $5
Gremlins Inc ?
GRID Ultimate Edition $5
Hard Reset Redux $2
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice $6.50
Hitman 2 $9
Horace $1
How to Survive 2 $2.50
I'm not a monster $2
The Journey Down: Chapter Three ??
JURASSIC WORLD EVOLUTION + Deluxe Dinosaur Pack $8
Kingdom: New Lands $5
The King's Bird $1
Knightin'+ $2
Kona $5
Late Shift $2.50
Love is Dead $2
Mages of Mystralia $2
Mega Man Legacy Collection $2
MEN OF WAR: ASSAULT SQUAD 2 - WAR CHEST EDITION $3.50
The Messenger $2
Metal Unit $1
Millennium: A New Hope .50 cents
Moonlighter $8
Monster Prom $4
NAIRI: Tower of Shirin $2
NBA 2K Playgrounds 2 $5
NEOVERSE $1.50
NICHE - A GENETICS SURVIVAL GAME $2.50
Niffelheim $1.50
Night Call $2
Operation Flashpoint: Red River $1
Opus Magnum $3
Original War $.50
Override: Mech City Brawl $2
Outland - Special Edition $5
Pacify $2
Paper Sorcerer $3.75
Paradigm $2.50
Paratopic $1
Payday 2 $4
PLANET ALPHA $3
Project Warlock $4
Pound of Ground $1
Puss! $1.50
Regions of Ruin may keep
Railware Empire $5
RAD $5
Rapture Rejects + Safari DLC $3
Regular Human Basketball $.50
RESIDENT EVIL 2 - All In-game Rewards Unlock $2
Resident Evil Revelations 2: Episode 1 (Penal Colony) $1.50
Rise of Industry $3
Road Redemption $7
Roller Coaster Tycoon Classic $2.50
Rollers of the Realm .50 cents
Rusty Lake: Roots $1.25
She Remembered Caterpillars $1
Shenmue I & II $5
Shenzhen I/O $3
Shiness: The Lightning Kingdom $3
Shoppe Keep 2 $2
Sigma Theory: Global Cold War $2
Slipstream $1.50
Smashbox Arena $3
Songbringer $1
Space Pirate Trainer $7
Spiral Scouts $.75
State of Mind $3
Staxel $7
Steel Rats $2.50
STRIDER $1.50
Strikers Edge $5
Stronghold Crusader 2 $3
Sudden Strike 4 $3
Super Daryl Deluxe $4
Supraland $4
Sword Omen Legacy $.75
The Swords of Ditto: Momo's Curse $1
Swords and Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon $4
Take On Helicopters $1
Take on Mars $1
Tannenberg $4
This Is the Police 2 $3
The Town of Light $1
The Waslking Dead (Telltale) $2
The Walking Dead 400 Days $1
The walking Dead: Michonne $2
The Walking Dead Season Two $3
Train Valley $1
Tricky Towers $2
Truberbrook $4
True Fear: Forsaken Souls $2
Turok 2: Seeds of Evil $3
Verlet Swing $1.50
Void Bastards $7
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War $3.50
Warsaw $1.50
Whispers of a Machine $1
X-Morph: Defense $.75
XCOM® 2 + XCOM® 2: Reinforcement Pack and XCOM® 2: Resistance Warrior Pack $8
Ylands $2
Yuppie Psycho $1
Yoku's Island Express $3.50
SGS Rep IGS Rep GCX Rep

Card Trading

 I may not accept EVERY offer 
  • Same Set | 1:1+ background or emoticon from you
  • Cross Set | 1:2
submitted by brand0n to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

How To Swing Trade Bitcoin What Is Swing Trading? Finxflo Trading Principals 101 5 Powerful Trading Strategies For Trading Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies SWING•GENIE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM How To Create A Screener For Finding Good Swing Trading Stocks

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