Universal Logistics Holdings Reports First Quarter 2020

OKEx Exchange’s Spot And Margin Trading Will Be Temporarily Suspended For System Upgrade

The Malta-based leading cryptocurrency exchange OKEx’s spot and margin trading will be temporarily unavailable at a certain period of time.
Read More
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OKEx Exchange’s Spot And Margin Trading Will Be Temporarily Suspended For System Upgrade

The Malta-based leading cryptocurrency exchange OKEx’s spot and margin trading will be temporarily unavailable at a certain period of time. Read More
submitted by thedailybuzz24ripple to u/thedailybuzz24ripple [link] [comments]

OKEx Exchange’s Spot And Margin Trading Will Be Temporarily Suspended For System Upgrade

The Malta-based leading cryptocurrency exchange OKEx’s spot and margin trading will be temporarily unavailable at a certain period of time. Read More
submitted by thedailybuzz24ripple to CryptoCurrencies [link] [comments]

Trade responsibly,

Good luck today guys, hope everyone makes some tendies
Edit 8:30PM Thanks for the love and awards guys, hope everyone ended the week off positive, enjoy your weekend.
Of note for Airlines (LUV, DAL, AAL, UAL), the Airlines for Americas trade association says the industry needs “immediate financial assistance” to protect the 11mln jobs it represents.
Of note for Banks (JPM, C, MS, BAC, GS), the Fed is encouraged by a notable increase in discount window borrowing as banks show a willingness to use the window as a funding source to support the flow of credit to households and businesses.
Of note for Car Rental Services (HTZ, CAR), both Hertz and Avis Budget Corp have requested aid from the US government.

Dow Jones

Apple Inc. (AAPL) supply chain is reportedly still facing supply disruptions even as China recovers due to factory closures of suppliers in Malaysia. Elsewhere, it has limited the number of purchases on its iPhones to two per customer in the US and China, according to Canalys.
Boeing Company (BA) is reportedly leaning towards a temporary halt of operations at its twin-aisle jetliner factories due to the spread of the coronavirus, according to people familiar with the matter, in a similar move to Airbus (AIR FP).
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Global Supply Chain Officer Wengel announced its supply chain is currently holding steady and meeting patient needs.
Walmart (WMT) announced it is planning to give special cash bonuses for hourly associates for their work during the current conditions with full-time associates receiving USD 300 and part-time associates receiving USD 150, which will equate to USD 365mln. WMT is to also accelerate its next bonus for store, club and supply chain associates which will equate to USD 180mln, overall it will equate to USD 550mln, the co. says. WMT is to also hire over 150k hourly employees as the number of shoppers increases.

Nasdaq 100

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)– Some sellers state its decision to stop receiving non-essential inventory in response to the coronavirus pandemic could limit sales they need to make payments on its loans from Amazon.
Tesla (TSLA) announced it decided to temporarily suspend production at its Fremont, California factory and NY Factory after March 23rd. Elsewhere, CEO Musk announced his factories are working on ventilators to address a potential shortage.
United Continental Holdings (UAL)Apollo Global Management (APO) has reportedly purchased part of the airlines USD 2bln loan from a group of banks, according to people familiar with the matter.

S&P 500

Accenture plc (ACN) had its PT cut at a number of brokers, however, they were positive on its ability to continue through the coronavirus crisis.
AFLAC Inc (AFL) American Family Life Assurance of Columbus and New York agreed to acquire Zurich North America's US corporate Life and Pensions. AFL expects the acquisition to be dilutive to 2020 adj. EPS by USD 0.02 to 0.03.
Altria Group Inc (MO) announced it is temporarily suspending operations at its Richmond manufacturing center.
Anthem Inc. (ANTM) announced it is offering up to 80 hours of paid emergency leave for qualifying needs, including if associates are experiencing coronavirus symptoms or for caring for young children whose school has been closed.
AT&T Inc. (T) announced it has cancelled is accelerates share repurchase programme of USD 4bln worth of stock, noting the impact of the coronavirus could be material although it cannot currently estimate the impact onto its financial or operational results.
Bank of America Corp (BAC) announced it is offering additional support for its consumer and small business clients in response to the coronavirus, where clients can request funds including overdraft fees, non-sufficient funds fees, and monthly maintenance fees through deposit accounts. Many customers can also request to defer any payments.
Carnival Corp. (CCL) preliminary Q1 20 (USD): EPS 0.22 (exp. 0.27), revenue 4.8bln (exp. 4.66bln); coronavirus resulted in a net loss of 0.23/shr.
Cintas Corporation (CTAS) Q3 20 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.16 (exp. 2.02), revenue 1.81bln (exp. 1.8bln), gross margin 45.5% (exp. 45.7%, prev. 44.9% Y/Y); announced it is not providing guidance for Q4 20 and it is suspending FY20 guidance due to uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus.
Coty, Inc (COTY) provided an update on the current situation: Expects Q3 20 revenue to fall approximately 20% like for like, with a meaningful impact on profit, it has also withdrawn FY20 guidance. It is recommending to the board that shareholders be given the option to receive up to 100% of their quarterly dividend in kind for the coming two quarters. Its largest shareholder JAB decided to fully repay the loan it used to finance the tender offer in 2019. It is taking initiatives to manufacture hand sanitizer. Notes activations on Amazon have seen US sales nearly double in recent weeks, as well as launching the Kylie skin-care Europe in upcoming weeks; it is also preparing for increased demand post coronavirus.
Danaher Corp. (DHR) announced the US FTC is on board with the acquisition of General Electric’s (GE) Life Sciences Biopharma Business. The closing of the deal is still subject to customary closing conditions as announced in the agreement, but DHR expects the deal to close on March 31st, 2020.
Ford Motor (F) announced it has plans to suspend production in Argentina and Brazil starting next week due to the coronavirus.
Kohl's Corp. (KSS) announced it is to close its stores nationwide through to at least April 1st, although customers will still be able to shop on its App. It also withdrew guidance for Q1 and FY20.
Mylan N.V. (MYL) announced it is increasing production of its malaria drug for potential use to combat the coronavirus.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is reportedly planning on naming its former CEO Stephen Chazen as its new chairman as it tries to improve amid weak demand and activism from Carl Icahn, according to WSJ citing people familiar with the matter.
Sysco Corp. (SYY) announced it will donate 2.5mln meals over the next four weeks as part of its response strategy to help against COVID-19. Elsewhere, it has withdrawn its three-year plan guidance due to the impact from the coronavirus.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF) Q4 19 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.80 (exp. 1.77), revenue 1.4bln (exp. 1.36bln); SSS +3%, SSS Ex-Hong Kong +5%, Gross Margin 63.3% (Prev. Y/Y 63.8%). Announced it will not be issuing FY20 guidance due to the pending merger with LVMH

Other

Crowdstrike (CRWD) Q4 19 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.02 (exp. -0.08), Revenue 152mln (exp. 137mln); FY21 Adj. EPS view -0.14 to -0.10 (exp. -0.18), revenue view 723-733mln (exp. 685mln)
Samsung (SSNLF) has reportedly been hit hard by Vietnam’s travel restrictions from South Korea, fueling concerns its Galaxy Note smartphones will fall behind schedule in its largest manufacturing hub outside South Korea
Teva (TEVA) announced it will be donating over 6mln doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets across the US to meet the urgent demand for the medicine as an investigational target to treat the coronavirus.

Additional US Equity Stories

Of note for casino names (MGM, CZR, WYNN, MLCO); Macau has halved its 2020 gaming revenue forecast due to the coronavirus and predicts a 56% fall from previous year to USD 16bln.
US Steel (X) Q1 20 (USD): Adj. EPS view -0.80 (exp. -0.84), EBITDA 30mln.
Coca Cola (KO) does not expect to meet its FY20 guidance, although does not foresee any near-term interruptions to its concentrate or beverage-based production. Meanwhile, it had its PT lowered at Deutsche Bank to USD 53/shr from USD 64/shr, although the desk reiterated its long-term buy rating.
Ross Stores (ROST) announced it is to temporarilty close all of its stores throughout the US due to the coronavirus.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) announced it is hiring 25,000 associates (both full and part time) to help across its stores in the US.
Synaptics Inc. (SYNA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Colgate Palmolive (CL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA
Accenture (CAN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MoffettNathansonMonster Beverage
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11 potential value long-term growth stocks > 25% under 52w Highs

A lot of people act like the market has left everyone behind but there are still great companies on extreme discounts in a variety of sectors, including tech. Here are some stocks from my watchlist that are still well below highs:
Brookfield Asset Management - BAM (26.17% down from 52w high) - a diversified asset manager company involved in real estate, renewable power, infrastructure and private equity assets. As safe a real estate play as you can make because of the wide moat. COVID-19 was the first snag they hit since 2008.
Workday - WDAY (26.56% down from 52w high) - provides enterprise cloud applications to help its customers to manage critical business functions and optimize their financial and human capital resources. Beat Q1 earnings by a big margin and are still down.
Bruker Corp - BRKR (28.32% down from 52w high) - makes scientific instruments and analytical/diagnostic instruments for a wide array of fields. Missed earnings this quarter, but this was a stock that grew 1200% from 2008 til pre-COVID.
Disney - DIS (29.75% down from 52w high) - yes their parks are in limbo and many of their stores worldwide are shut down and their movies are suspended. But Disney has the resources to weather this storm, and Disney+ has been a lifesaver. If looking long-term, this price may never be seen again once they announce reopenings.
Exact Sciences Corp - EXAS (32.29% down from 52w high) - Makes cancer screening tests. COVID-19 has temporarily slowed cancer screenings, but this could bounce back and has grown immensely the past 5 years. Additionally they acquired Genomic Health last year, which focused on genomic based genetic research for cancer detection.
Hewlett Packard - HPQ (35.6% down from 52w high) - Strikes me as one of the most underrated large caps right now. They make great products, and it's highly likely an increase in remote work led to increased sales of laptops and printers.
JP Morgan - JPM (36.26% down from 52w high) - The best run of the investment banks imo, as they are highly diversified. For a company hammered this hard, they are bound to come out of this even better positioned for the future.
Conoco Phillips - COP (37% down from 52w high) - Has already shot way up the past month (I regret selling more than half my shares), but still far below it's highs so plenty more room to rebound. They struck me as one of the better positioned oil companies to make it through this and bounce back given their rock solid financials.
Raytheon - RTX (38.64% down from 52w high) - whoever is President, it's hard to bet against the military-industrial complex. Pre-COVID, up 400% from the 2008 trough. Commercial and business aviation connections have definitely hurt them in the short term, but their military applications give them a broader moat, and they seem to be much better run than Boeing, for example.
StoneCo - STNE (41.89% down from 52w high) - basically the Square of Brazil, from what I understand, and traded on Nasdaq. Develops fintech solutions for electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels for small and medium sized businesses. Unlike Square, it is apparently still accurately valued in a time of concern for small and medium size businesses. The added long-term benefit of being in a developing economy also seems to be a good selling point.
Pinterest - PINS (49.42% down from 52w high) - has been considered a loser financially for a while, but it seems with the arrangement with SHOP they are finally figuring out how to better monetize their platform -- which has an extremely loyal following among women especially. The potential for future growth for a stock that has surpassed Snapchat as the #3 social media site in domestic users (47% of internet users in the US, 2/3rds of those female) is enormous.
What are your thoughts on these and their future potential for growth? How soon do you think they bounce back to ATHs?
submitted by devilmaskrascal to stocks [link] [comments]

Covid-19 update Friday 24th April

Good morning from the UK. It’s Friday 24th April. My marigold seeds have taken off and are starting to sprout secondary stage leaves (marigolds are good companion plants; they ward off various pests in a vegetable garden whilst they can also be good sacrificial plants should a slug manage to somehow breach our electric barrier). Meanwhile, the first of my wife’s radishes seeds is starting to emerge from the compost she put in a recycled milk carton tetrapak a few days ago; she’s very excited by this. Advance warning, today’s post is a bit food supply chain heavy. Happy Friday everybody.

Virus news in depth


AP Story from Tuesday 21st April: UN food agency chief: World on brink of `a hunger pandemic’ - The head of the U.N. food agency warned Tuesday that, as the world is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, it is also “on the brink of a hunger pandemic” that could lead to “multiple famines of biblical proportions” within a few months if immediate action isn’t taken. World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told the U.N. Security Council that even before COVID-19 became an issue, he was telling world leaders that “2020 would be facing the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.” That’s because of wars in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, locust swarms in Africa, frequent natural disasters and economic crises including in Lebanon, Congo, Sudan and Ethiopia, he said. Beasley said today 821 million people go to bed hungry every night all over the world, a further 135 million people are facing “crisis levels of hunger or worse,” and a new World Food Program analysis shows that as a result of COVID-19 an additional 130 million people “could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.” He said in the video briefing that WFP is providing food to nearly 100 million people on any given day, including “about 30 million people who literally depend on us to stay alive.”
(Cont’d) Beasley, who is recovering from COVID-19, said if those 30 million people can’t be reached, “our analysis shows that 300,000 people could starve to death every single day over a three-month period” — and that doesn’t include increased starvation due to the coronavirus. “In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries, and in fact, in 10 of these countries we already have more than one million people per country who are on the verge of starvation,” he said. According to WFP, the 10 countries with the worst food crises in 2019 were Yemen, Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Sudan, Nigeria and Haiti. He pointed to a sharp drop in overseas remittances that will hurt countries such as Haiti, Nepal and Somalia; a loss of tourism revenue which, for example, will damage Ethiopia where it accounts for 47 percent of total exports; and the collapse of oil prices which will have a significant impact in lower-income countries like South Sudan where oil accounts for almost 99 percent of total exports.

The Gulf Times takes a different slant on the story: ‘Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us’; COVID-19 brings fears of a global food crisis - In Kibera, the largest slum in Kenya’s capital Nairobi, people desperate to eat set off a stampede during a recent giveaway of flour and cooking oil, leaving scores injured and two people dead. The coronavirus has sometimes been called an equaliser because it has sickened both rich and poor, but when it comes to food, the commonality ends. It is poor people, including large segments of poorer nations, who are now going hungry and facing the prospect of starving. “The coronavirus has been anything but a great equaliser,” said Asha Jaffar, a volunteer who brought food to families in the Nairobi slum of Kibera after the fatal stampede. “It’s been the great revealer, pulling the curtain back on the class divide and exposing how deeply unequal this country is.” Already, 135 million people had been facing acute food shortages, but now with the pandemic, 130 million more could go hungry in 2020, said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Program, a UN agency. Altogether, an estimated 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by year’s end. “We’ve never seen anything like this before,” Husain said. “It wasn’t a pretty picture to begin with, but this makes it truly unprecedented and uncharted territory.”
(Cont’d) There is no shortage of food globally, or mass starvation from the pandemic yet continues the Gulf Times article. But logistical problems in planting, harvesting and transporting food will leave poor countries exposed in the coming months, especially those reliant on imports, said Johan Swinnen, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organised and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labour intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to COVID-19 and social distancing regulations.” On a recent evening, hundreds of migrant workers, who have been stuck in New Delhi after a lockdown was imposed in March with little warning, sat under the shade of a bridge waiting for food to arrive. The Delhi government has set up soup kitchens, yet workers like Nihal Singh go hungry as the throngs at these centres have increased in recent days. “Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us,” said Singh, who was hoping to eat his first meal in a day.

Coronavirus-driven CO2 shortage threatens US food, water and beer supply, officials say - The Guardian reports that there is an emerging shortage of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) according to a Washington state emergency planning document. The document, a Covid-19 situation report produced by the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC), contains a warning from the state’s office of drinking water (ODW) about difficulties in obtaining CO2, which is essential for the process of water treatment. The document says that the ODW is “still responding to [that day’s] notification of a national shortage of CO2”. It continues: “Several [water plants] had received initial notification from their vendors that their supply would be restricted to 33% of normal.” It further warns: “So far utilities have been able to make the case that they are considered essential to critical infrastructure and have been returned to full supply. However, we want to ask if CISA [the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] can assess this through their contacts, if this is sustainable given the national shortage.”
(Cont’d) Asked to clarify the nature of this problem, ODW director Mike Means said in an email that his agency had first learned of potential problems when Seattle public utilities were “contacted by their vendor Airgas who supplied a copy of a Force Majeure notice”, warning them that their CO2 order would be reduced due to pandemic-related shortages. Force majeure is a contractual defense that allows parties to escape liability for contracts in the case of events – such as a pandemic – that could not be reasonably foreseen. In this case, Means wrote, “Airgas informed in their notice that they would only be able to do 80% of their normal service but subsequent discussions said to expect more like 33%”. At this point, he added, “we reached out to understand if this was a WA specific problem or national. We quickly understood it to be a national issue.”
(Cont’d) ODW had then contacted federal agencies such as CISA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) and industry bodies such as the Association of State Drinking Water Authorities (ASDWA). The main reason for national shortages, according to the CEO of the Compressed Gas Association (CGA), Rich Gottwald, is a ramping down of ethanol production. “Back in the summertime, the [Trump] administration exempted some gasoline manufacturers from using ethanol. Then we had Russia and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with cheap gasoline. All of that led to an oversupply of ethanol,” Gottwald said. “As ethanol manufacturers were ramping down because there wasn’t a market for their product, along comes Covid-19, which meant people weren’t driving anywhere”, he added. This led to plant closures, including among the 50 specialized plants that collect CO2 for the food and beverage market. Gottwald’s association, along with a number of associations representing food and beverage industries, which together use 77% of food-grade CO2, issued a joint warning to the federal government about the shortage. In an open letter to the vice-president, Mike Pence, the coalition warns: “Preliminary data show that production of CO2 has decreased by approximately 20%, and experts predict that CO2 production may be reduced by 50% by mid-April.” It continues: “A shortage in CO2 would impact the US availability of fresh food, preserved food and beverages, including beer production.”

The 'land army' needed to keep the UK's food supply chain going as thousands of tonnes of food risks going to waste - ITV has done a piece on the UK farming supply chain. Farmers are desperate for help. Without their usual influx of migrant workers from the EU, thousands of tonnes of food risk going to waste in fields up and down the country, just as the summer crops come into season. Every year our farming industry needs 90,000 seasonal workers. Like Robyn, many have put themselves forward - but in no way near the numbers needed. Others are finding the application process hard to navigate. Mark Thorogood, whose family have run the Essex farm for three generations, says it’s a perilous time for the food supply chain. "If we can't get the labour – it doesn’t get picked. That’s the crux of it", he said. Meanwhile, the charity The Food Foundation claims more than one and a half million Britons are going without food for at least a day because of the pandemic and three million have experienced hunger since the lockdown. On top of all that - the reality that nearly 50% of our food comes from abroad. With the numbers of ships crossing the Channel reduced and port workers hit by the virus, this is now under threat too. So could this crisis see a permanent change in how we feed our nation? The country's leading voice on food security, Professor Tim Lang gave us a grave warning: "The entire world food system is being disrupted. More disruptions are coming. Plantings not happening, food being wasted. "Britain only produces about 50% of its food - the country that can only half feed itself has got to wake up". (Personal note: this is why I’m putting effort into growing veg)

Virus news in brief


Sources: The Guardian, CNN or (to get an alternative spin) Radio New Zealand









Supply chain news in depth


Hidden threat: Japan only has a 2-week stockpile of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) - If supplies stop, it will cause major power supply problems in the country says Nikkei’s Asian review which has an article highlighting the continuing energy supply chain vulnerability in Japan ever since the Fukushima nuclear disaster. It takes about one month to ship LNG from the Middle East to Japan explains the article but if the coronavirus outbreak prevents ships from docking in Japan it could have a big impact on the country's power supply. The physical properties of LNG mean it is poorly suited for long-term storage hence the country only holding a two-week stockpile. Despite this, the country depends on the fuel for 40% of its electric power generation needs, and all of the LNG it uses is imported from the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Tokyo Bay, which stretches across the prefectures of Chiba, Tokyo and Kanagawa, is Japan's most important LNG power generation hub. JERA operates many of the power plants there, all of which run on LNG. Accounting for about 30% of Japan's total LNG power generation, these plants produce 26 million kilowatts of electricity. If, for instance, the coronavirus was to force these plants to stop, the Greater Tokyo area would immediately lose its power supply (Personal note: that’s a population of approx 38.5m people).
(Cont’d) Today, LNG is a pillar of Japan's electricity. Before the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami in Japan, LNG made up 28% of the country's power generation. That increased to 40% in fiscal 2017 as the nation's nuclear power plants went off grid, one after the other, following the Fukushima nuclear crisis. While some of Japan's nuclear plants have come back online, based on the strictest standards in the world, only three of the 10 electric power companies have been able to do so. Moreover, the coronavirus is inching closer and closer to the nuclear plants. Recently, a contractor working at the Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in the southern prefecture of Saga tested positive for the virus and construction at the site was stopped temporarily. Japan has traditionally tried to maintain a diverse mixture of power sources -- including nuclear, LNG, fossil fuels and renewable energy -- due to its reliance on imports as an island nation. "It is highly unbalanced to depend close to half of our energy on LNG alone," an official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry concedes. With shipments arriving constantly, a few missed shipments will not immediately signal a crisis. But an extended cutoff will spell trouble for the country.
(Cont’d) Japan was already facing a power shortage this year, "so the timing is very bad," said a power industry source. The Sendai nuclear power plant in Kagoshima Prefecture was shut down last month because it failed to meet antiterrorism standards. The No. 3 reactor at the Ikata nuclear power plant in Ehime Prefecture is offline following a court injunction. The number of nuclear reactors in operation this year is expected to temporarily fall by half from nine, so Japan cannot rely heavily on nuclear power. Japan's energy self-sufficiency stands at about 10%, well below the 40% for food. The movement to shift away from carbon has led to a backlash against domestic coal-fired power plants, so dependence on LNG could rise further. One reason that Tokyo Electric is rushing to restart its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture is because "heavy concentration in LNG power in Tokyo Bay is a major risk to the stable supply of power," according to an official at the utility. The coronavirus pandemic is testing whether Japan's government and utilities can diversify energy sources to prepare against the risks that threaten supplies.

USA meat packing plant Covid-19 problems worse than originally thought - A rash of coronavirus outbreaks at dozens of meatpacking plants across the nation is far more extensive than previously thought, according to an exclusive review of cases by USA TODAY and the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting. More than 150 of America’s largest meat processing plants operate in counties where the rate of coronavirus infection is already among the nation’s highest, based on the media outlets’ analysis of slaughterhouse locations and county-level COVID-19 infection rates. These facilities represent more than 1 in 3 of the nation’s biggest beef, pork and poultry processing plants. Rates of infection around these plants are higher than those of 75% of other U.S. counties, the analysis found.
(Cont’d) While experts say the industry has thus far maintained sufficient production despite infections in at least 2,200 workers at 48 plants, there are fears that the number of cases could continue to rise and that meatpacking plants will become the next disaster zones. "Initially our concern was long-term care facilities," said Gary Anthone, Nebraska's chief medical officer, in a Facebook Live video Sunday. “If there's one thing that might keep me up at night, it's the meat processing plants and the manufacturing plants." Factory workers, unions, and even managers say the federal government – including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration – has done little more than issue non-enforceable guidance. On its website, for example, the CDC has released safety guidelines for critical workers and businesses, which primarily promote common-sense measures of sanitization and personal distancing. USA Today says that state health departments have also taken a backseat role in all but a few places. There’s more in the article here.

Supply chain news in brief









Good news


Meet the 12-year-old who rode 36 hours on Zwift alongside Geraint Thomas - The Tour De France winner and double Olympic gold medalist earlier this week did 3 12 hour cycling sessions to raise money for the UK’s NHS (National Health Service), eventually earning £350,000. Alongside him rode a 12 year old Mak Larkin who by the end of the 36 hours of cycling had managed to cycle 740km (460 miles). Proud mum Lynsey told Cycling Weekly: “Lockdown was really getting to Mak, being that he was so eager to race this season as it was his first year at national level road and mountain bike cross country. “He saw Geraint’s 36-hour challenge and told us he wanted to do some of it with him for something to do and to support the NHS. He then told us a few hours later that he wanted to do the full challenge and wanted to raise some money himself. At time of writing his fundraising page (also for the NHS) stands at £5,772 (approx €6,605 or $7,111 USD). Cycling weekly has more here.

A toddler has been able to hear for the first time after a groundbreaking remote switch-on of her cochlear implants - The BBC reports that audiologists in Southampton activated the devices for 18-month-old Margarida Cibrao-Roque via the internet as they are unable to see patients in person due to Covid-19 measures. Professor Helen Cullington said the procedure took "technical creativity". Margarida's father said it had "opened a big window" for his daughter. Margarida, who has been deaf since birth because she has Ushers Syndrome Type One, had received her cochlear implants in an earlier operation. Staff at the University of Southampton's Auditory Implant Service (USAIS) used specialist software and were able to monitor progress via videolink to the family's home in Camberley, Surrey. During the switch-on levels of electrical stimulation were gradually built up and Margarida's responses were constantly monitored. It is hoped her new cochlear implants will, over time, help her to hear and to communicate more easily. Margarida's mother, Joana Cibrao said the team were "just brilliant and made it happen" despite the lockdown restrictions. "The possibility of Margarida calling me mummy one day would mean the world," she said.

Donations


Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but as you may have read above, food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
UK: https://www.trusselltrust.org/
France: https://www.banquealimentaire.org/
Germany: https://www.tafel.de/
Netherlands: https://www.voedselbankennederland.nl/steun-ons/steun-voedselbank-donatie/
Italy: https://www.bancoalimentare.it/it/node/1
Spain: https://www.fesbal.org/
Australia: https://www.foodbank.org.au/
Canada: https://www.foodbankscanada.ca/
USA: https://www.feedingamerica.org/
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.
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Covid-19 update Tuesday 21st APril

Good morning from the UK. It’s Tuesday 21st April.
Personal annecdote; if you’re trying to send airfreight from SE Asia to Europe good luck, a customer of ours uses FOB (meaning they sort out airfreight or seafreight themselves, I don’t have to do it) and the first available flight to their part of N Europe isn’t for another 9 days. That’s crazy.

Virus news in depth


Wuhan’s 11 Million People Are Free to Dine Out. Yet They Aren’t - Bloomberg has an article (link, subscription required) about the new problems facing the hospitality industry in Wuhan, the originating point of this pandemic. The article tells the story of successful restaurant owner Xiong Fei who is finding that whilst the lockdown in the city has ended, customers are yet to come back. People are still encouraged by local authorities to remain home as much as possible and have their temperature checked before entering any building. The appetite for going out for lunch with friends or colleagues has gone he says, with people more likely to go for lunch boxes or to cook at home. Out of the 10 restaurants he owns (some of which attracted 40 minute queues to enter), Xiong is yet to reopen any for eating in; he’s managed to get 3 sites open for food deliveries to serve orders coming in from Alibaba’s Ele.me or Telecent’s Meituan Dianping app but they’re only at 20% capacity despite providing city wide delivery even if it takes hours to achieve. but Xiong has already decided to permanently close 3 other restaurants. So far he’s had to permanently lay off 40 employees and more may have to go in the future. Xiong figures the trend for eating in is unlikely to go away soon and is pivoting to importing and selling high tech food packing machines for other restaurants. More restaurants are likely to be weeded out he says; the market just follows natural selection, and only the fittest will survive.

Virus news in brief










Supply chain news in depth


Air Asia woes likely to lead to issues for Airbus - The market leading budget airline in South East Asia, Air Asia has been forced to ground 96% of its fleet and is hemorrhaging cash as a result especially its long haul arm Air Asia X says Bloomberg (link). That’s a potential problem for Airbus because the airline has placed orders worth $23bn for its new, fuel-saving A330neo widebody jet, making it the largest customer for the plane. AirAsia may be burning about 527 million ringgit in cash per month in fixed operating costs, financing costs, and fuel hedging losses, according to Raymond Yap, an analyst at CIMB Group Holdings who estimates the carrier has enough cash to pay its fixed costs for less than five months. As a result, Air Asia will soon have to tap into new debt facilities and defer payments to its suppliers but although AirAsia is not government owned, Bloomberg believes that the Malaysian government will not allow AirAsia to fail, as it will hurt Malaysia’s economy. In an interview on Bloomberg Television, Air Asia’s CEO Tony Fernandes said AirAsia was working with the government to obtain a loan but has enough cash to last most of this year. He also said the company hopes to restart ticket sales in mid-April. To raise cash, AirAsia ran a promotion in February offering Malaysia-based customers unlimited flights to all AirAsia X destinations in Australia, China, India, Japan, and South Korea for a year for 499 ringgit ($113 USD / €104).

Supply chain news in brief















Good news section


Good News: This 17-Year Old’s Nonprofit Is Delivering Food To Boomers In 12 Cities (And He Started 3 Weeks Ago) - Forbes has an article on 17 year old Danny Goldberg who wanted to help out boomers stuck at home; he quickly acted upon his desire to help and set up a volunteer service in which Zoomers (members of Generation-Z, born between 1995 and 2015) delivered groceries and other necessities to Boomers (members of the Baby Boom generation, born between 1944 and 1964), free of charge. Danny aptly named his group, Zoomers To Boomers (ZTB). The process is simple: Boomers email their grocery lists to ZTB and pay for the groceries electronically. The Zoomers then pick the items up and deliver them to the Boomers’ residences, reducing the chance of an older person contracting the coronavirus. Founded in Santa Barbara, California in mid-March, Danny’s Zoomers To Boomers organization has expanded to twelve cities, worldwide and is processing thousands of deliveries.

Copenhagen residents rejoice - Hairdressers and barbers have reopened! Reuters reports that business is very brisk with many customers keen on getting their barnet tidied up. Interestingly, nobody is having to wear masks.

Donations


Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
UK: https://www.trusselltrust.org/
France: https://www.banquealimentaire.org/
Germany: https://www.tafel.de/
Netherlands: https://www.voedselbankennederland.nl/steun-ons/steun-voedselbank-donatie/
Italy: https://www.bancoalimentare.it/it/node/1
Spain: https://www.fesbal.org/
Australia: https://www.foodbank.org.au/
Canada: https://www.foodbankscanada.ca/
USA: https://www.feedingamerica.org/
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.
submitted by Fwoggie2 to supplychain [link] [comments]

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Wells Fargo stock Analysis

Source: Bireme Report
Wells Fargo
We added two positions in the quarter. One of them was megabank Wells Fargo. The COVID-19 crisis caused a lot of pain for bank investors during the first quarter, and Wells Fargo was no exception. In fact, the stock was dropping even before the virus reached NYC, down about 13% in January while the broader market was flat. WFC then proceeded to fall 47% to its lows on the year around $25. We invested towards the end of the quarter, with an average price of ~$27.50. What we saw in Wells Fargo was a bank with a long history of solid, growing earnings that is facing a number of short- to medium-term problems:
Business-practice issues of its own making.
Potential COVID-19 related loan losses.
Falling interest rates. We could fill many pages with discussion of the firm’s client relations and HR scandals -- opening accounts for clients without their permission, putting wealth management clients in unsuitable investment products, failing to respond to HR complaints, gender bias in hiring and promotion, illegally repossessing borrower motor vehicles, etc. The market has punished the stock since these
The market has punished the stock since these issues came to light, with WFC underperforming peers by 50% since 2015. Wells Fargo today reminds us of Facebook in Q4 2018 (which we wrote about here). In both cases, investors unduly shunned a fundamentally sound company that made mistakes involving breaches of customer trust. While admittedly reprehensible, the scandals at both FB and WFC are more impactful to social media sentiment than to long-term free cash flows.
Availability bias causes human beings to place disproportionate weight on this type of story. Breaches of customer trust rightfully disgust the public, and investors find it distasteful to be long a company whose CEO is chastised by Congress. Our investment strategy is predicated on identifying and exploiting these investor biases; we thrive on situations where short-term issues obfuscate the underlying health and long-term earnings power of a business.
The vast majority of revenue for Wells Fargo is generated by interest on loans, and we don’t see much evidence that the long-term volume or credit quality of these loans have been a!ected by the scandals of the past three years.
In fact, Wells Fargo’s relationship with consumers and businesses appears to be healthy. All of the following key metrics are flat-to-up since 2016: loans (flat), deposits (flat), customer checking accounts (+3%), debit card purchase volume (+21%), consumer card purchase volume (+17%), commercial card purchase volume (+28%), and branch visit satisfaction score (+3%). But even these figures understate the health of WFC’s business: the lack of growth in the loan book is due entirely to an asset cap put in place by regulators to punish the company for its transgressions. If not for that cap, loans and deposits would almost certainly have grown.
For this 168-year-old franchise, we paid less than 7 times trailing earnings. We do expect those earnings to fall in the short term as COVID-19-related loan loss provisions hit the income statement. However, WFC’s balance sheet and core profitability provides plenty of margin to absorb these losses. Wells Fargo’s net charge-o!s peaked at 2.2% of average loans outstanding during the financial crisis. While this level of net charge-o!s would’ve been enough to wipe out last year’s earnings, it would not have impaired the firm’s book equity (assuming that dividends and buybacks were suspended temporarily).
Our base case is that the current crisis will be extremely sharp in the short term, but not worse than the financial crisis in the long term unemployment, home prices, and loan defaults. For one, consumers are in a better position. In 2008, debt service payments (mostly due to high mortgage payments) were over 13% of disposable income. Today, that number is below 10%. US households’ equity in their homes has doubled since year-end 2008, to almost $20 trillion today. Second, the banking sector -- whose meltdown exacerbated if not caused the 2008 crisis -- is much better capitalized, with Tier 1 common equity ratios up from about 8% in 2007 to 12% today.2 Interest rates have fallen substantially -- mortgage rates, for example, have fallen by about half a percent in the last year -- and thus Wells Fargo will generate less net interest income. Current Street estimates are for $43.9b in net interest income, a decline of $3.3b versus 2019. Given that lower interest rates are prevalent across the yield curve, we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.
However, we believe Wells Fargo has a significant opportunity to o!set much of that lost income by cutting costs. The firm’s efficiency ratio,” the ratio of non-interest expenses to revenue, has become one of the worst in the industry in recent years. Partly this is due to the firm’s regulatory problems, which we estimate have cost $5b per year in legal fees, settlements, and compliance costs. As they put these issues behind them, we think they should be able to achieve an efficiency ratio similar to their peers at JP Morgan and Bank of America. This implies they may be able to shed $8-10b of total costs, which would more than o!set the lost interest income from lower rates. Management has stated that they are focused on this task.
Over time, we estimate that WFC will be able to generate about $15-18b of profits per year, only slightly lower than the $18-20b they generated between 2017 and 2019. The stock trades at 6-7.5x the new earnings level, which we find quite cheap given the long-term stability of the business and the stickiness of client accounts.
submitted by cheechuu to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Cavern Quickstart Step-by-Step

Why Rush for the Caverns

So I like to place my main fortress staircase in the 1st cavern level and build my fortress around the caverns. Partially this just feels like the dwarfy thing to do (I'm not a hill dwarf building a fort near the surface, I'm actually living in the stone).
But there are tangible advantages to doing this (most of these are contingent on having access to a cavern level that is not largely full of water):
Compared to the challenges of doing this:
--

Quickstart

So, here I am to share how I take advantage of quickly creating the main body of a fortress on a cavern level as I previously mentioned I planned to do. I assume that anyone reading this already is very familiar with the basic controls of game, including military commands. I also assume that you are embarking with at least one cat, which is crucial to control the additional vermin.
1. The Jump-off Point. Immediately dig a temporary entrance close to your wagon down 50 tiles. If you find unflooded cavern, great, skip to step #3. If not, dig out a 21x7 temporary fort (later this will likely be converted into my prison or a noble's quarters) to keep your dwarves occupied and get some of the necessary hauling mostly done. While this is being mined out, keep your non-mining dwarves occupied in some other fashion (for instance, step 2 of this guide for more detailed instructions). I like to split the shaft down 10-20 levels and so that I can seal the entrance there, but it is more efficient to just floor over the top. You might be able to make your temporary fort down less tiles, I tend to embark in the hills or mountains, so the base elevation above sea level that I usually embark at may be unusually high.
Split the 21x8 area up into three parts: a 3x8 living area (dining tables, chairs, beds), a 18x3 space for 6 workshops of your choice (for instance, Smelter, Mason's Workshop, Carpenter's Workshop, Craftsdwarf's Workshop, Mechanic's Workshop, Leather Works/Forge), and a 18x5 stockpile space, split largely half and half between furniture and your other stockpiles. I recommend a multi-stockpile with everything enabled EXCEPT refuse, stone, bablock, wood, and furniture coupled with small separate stockpiles for wood and bablock (a smelter running coal can easily end up uselessly filling a lot of space when the items could just be left in the actual workshop for a while, you only need a 1x3 bablock pile for your smelter so that some of the results are stored in bins, whereas if you embarked in a treeless zone you may have 20+ wood in your cart and bringing all that down into the available space at once wouldn't do). Double check to make sure you don't have refuse enabled on your multi-stockpile, that would be bad. Keep your dwarves from being idle and get the non-stone stuff down from your cart.
 
2. Finding the Caverns. Once this area is mined out, go up a couple z-levels (to -48). This is faster than making a separate tunnel from the surface because we are so far underground. It also will reveal metals/gems for mining. More usefully, the tunnels don't need to be sealed at all if you don't find caverns. Dig up/down staircases extending several levels up-down at about 30 tiles away from your starting area, and again at ~60. I recommend 3-4 exploration tunnels, one for each miner (the result being 6-8 separate exploration staircases). It is not uncommon for the 1st cavern level to be deeper (say, -58), or shallower (say, -35). It is possible for the 1st cavern level to be much, deeper, or much shallower, but my experience (bearing in mind that I do tend to embark on hills and mountains) is that they tend to more or less extend to around -50. Usually even relatively flat cavern levels have 4 separate z-levels to them, so you don't need to hit it on the nose. It may be useful to examine revealed tiles with d-m, which will show wet/hot stone. Also, note that diagonal tunnels reveal more tiles than orthogonal ones (though those take more effort to designate).
While all the mining is going on, have your mason prioritize doors more than usual, as those will be useful in quickly sealing tunnels. Have your carpenter make a wooden shield (the most effective kind due to their low weight) or two. Also if you brought smithing materials on embark, employ those in making an axe with a quality modifier on it for your soon-to-be militia commander, along with whatever else you want to equip him with, just don't load him up too much so he can still chase down hostiles that get in your fort. Even if all your military dwarf has is an axe and shield, he should fair very well against any cavern denizens you may find except for Giant Cave Spiders.
There is no need whatsoever to do things precisely in the way I describe, but I find this way of doing things particularly resilient against evasive caverns that make take a long time to find, leaves minimal clean-up once the caverns are found, and leaves the useful byproducts of exploratory mining (stone, gems) convenient to your fort.
If I find the 1st cavern level is extremely flooded and the 2nd cavern level isn't readily available, a cavern start is almost certainly impossible. So in that case I will either abandon or build a completely normal fort only deeper (and with easy access to water and tree growth), but generally few of either the advantages or challenges of a regular cavern start. I may also choose to try to start in the 2nd cavern level if I can find it quickly and it seems easier to create a safe area or if the 1st cavern level doesn't have trees.
The cavern wildlife in the 2nd cavern level is on semi-rare occasions much more dangerous, but its trees tend to yield more wood, and there is an additional type of vermin that can be milked. Otherwise:
 
3. Exploring the Caverns. Upon finding the caverns, I need to make a plan to create a safe zone. However, first I need to actually see what is in the caverns. Or at least need to see a better chunk of them. Before I can do that there is some prep that needs to be done:
 
3b. Look at 'u'nits and find all of the cavern creatures you can see. Check each one on the wiki to see if it will attack your dwarves. If those creatures are close, you may either wall off the caverns for an in-game month or two or send your military dwarf to deal with them. If the creatures are far, keep a mental note of that so that you can execute your plan to control the caverns safely, but changing longer term plans based on transient creatures is probably a bad idea.
 
3c. If there is any visible danger and it isn't right in your face, secure a small area of the caverns to build a small farm. If you haven't built a temporary fort already, you'll want to build a few workshops and some stockpiles. Build your workshops closer to where you think your main staircase might me, and your farms in a corner your dwarves will trample less. Build your doors and only a few walls to lightly seal off a small cavern area in a way that's easy to change.
If there is visible danger and it is right in your face, consider killing it with your military dwarf and possibly temporarily conscript a partner for him. There is very little that a lightly-trained dwarf with an axe can't simply take on in the 1st cavern level (giant cave spiders are the main exception!), it's your unarmed civilians that are in danger for the most part. That said, if you run across a pack of more than four troglodytes all bunched up together (if there is more space between troglodytes, your dwarf can beat them sequentially or chase them off), perhaps building doors and locking them until they move on is the wiser decision.
 
3d. Once you are satisfied that your civilians are safe against immediate threats, send your military dwarf out to explore the remainder of the caverns that can be explored without mining. Hopefully that's most of it, if it isn't (due to trees, cliffs, etc) consider sending a miner to make a way for him once or twice, but don't overdo it, making the the cavern convenient to your dwarves by doing this also makes your dwarves convenient to the caverns. Make your decisions based only on what you can explore quickly -- you can always seal off more cavern when you are better established.
 
4. Planning the Land Grab. Now that you actually know what the caverns look like and your dwarves are beginning to plant their first crops, try to pick places to seal off that can create a safe area for your dwarves to exploit. Here are some things to consider:
 
5. Securing Civilian Safety. Now that you've made your plan to seal things off, evaluate whether you want to do this all at once or in multiple phases. For the most part all at once is easiest and best, but you will have to be vigilant with your military dwarf if you choose to do it that way. Check the 'u'nits list often for hostiles. Drop an armor stand, weapon rack, and a coffer for a barracks near an important place for your military dwarf to hang out and have him train there and execute your plan. It is ideal for the barracks to be out of sight of your farms (so perhaps in front of your initial front door, rather than behind it) so that farmers don't become horrified by the death of attacking Troglodytes.
 
6. The Fortress' Core. As the sealing is going on, find a place for your main staircase. The ideal staircase is as follows:
 
7. Space Created. Embrace the wealth of open space you've won. Next to your main staircase in the cavern, place at least four workshops (not including quern and screw press, which would also be convenient here and don't take up space) from either the common ones (carpenter, craft, mason, or from your main industry). And next to the workshops, stockpiles, and next to the stockpiles (and the food stockpile in particular) near a natural wall so your dwarves don't path over them too much, farms. To the side of the farms, or even in the midst of them (if there was a 3x3 or larger natural stone pillar you decided to clear away but did not choose as your staircase) build a Still and Farmer's Workshop. Dig a refuse stockpile closer to where you want to build your main entrance into the rest of the caverns and build the butcher and tanner's workshop there, you'll probably end up butchering some of the tavern wildlife.
Plop down a table and chair in a quiet space for your managebookkeeper and get him counting goods. If there are underground volunteer crops lying around, designate them to be gathered as well as enable labors on a herbalist to gather them. Build a Trade Depot on the surface to ensure that you have a wagon accessible Depot, or build a Trade Depot right in the caverns and don't worry about the wagons for the first supply caravan (this will save a bunch of hauling time, but will result in less goods available to purchase, possibly especially heavy goods like wood but it is the first caravan you may not have trade industries running at full power yet).
Don't be too greedy for cavern soil that you fail to take advantage of your space, there is plenty of soil to go around.
 
8. Strategy to Keep Civilian Dwarves from Killing Themselves. As soon as you have a refuse pile or a loom or somedwarf with hunting labors enabled, you've got the potential, and the likelihood, of dwarven Darwin Award candidates. Dwarves can and will collect refuse from any available place underground, including where one cavern denizen killed another. This is of course, highly undesirable.
There are, in essence, three strategies for keeping dwarves from walking to the ready claws or slavering jaws of cavern life, pick one.
Strategy 1: Ensure that no jobs get automatically created outside of your walled area. This is extremely difficult, and it is very easy to miss something. For instance, some cavern denizens carry weapons, and if one kills another...well, you don't happen to have to have a weapons stockpile, do you? I think there's some auto-forbid stuff that is on by default that helps handle this sort of thing, but it doesn't handle everything you need by default.
Strategy 2: The Airlock. Extremely easy to implement. All you need is some space and two sets of doors, both forbidden. When you want your military to go out, unforbid one set of doors, s-a-m your squad into the airlock, forbid the doors behind them, and unforbid the second set. Upgrade to drawbridges later. Be very quick to act every time a new cavern entrance is created. This is a good solution, but if you want your civilians to occasionally go into the caverns, for instance, your butcher, this makes that kinda difficult.
Strategy 3: Burrows. The thing to remember with burrows is that, by default, jobs outside the burrow get cancelled silently. Jobs inside the burrow but with no path to the job create cancellation spam. Burrows, once CIV is assigned to them, define safe zones, not danger zones, so burrows keep your dwarves from getting killed accidentally very well, but are somewhat tedious to set up. Best advice: be permissive with your burrows, having a small zone just outside of your defensive line isn't likely to create many jobs when unsafe, so you're unlikely to get dwarves doing something they absolutely shouldn't even if you are relatively permissive with your burrow designation.
Here's my strategy to setting up burrows:
Burrow 1: "Above Caverns". Select every square in every z-level from the very top of the map to 1 level above the first spaces of the caverns. If something dangerous shows up in your fort, assigning them to only this burrow will usually send your dwarves hurtling outside in a jiffy. This takes less than half a minute to make.
Burrow 2: "Above Cav Indoors". Select every square in every z-level from one level below the lowest outside tile to 1 level above the first s paces of the caverns. If something dangerous shows up outside your fort, this will keep your dwarves from trying to re-pasture animals. Sure ideally you'd also not include the trade route ramp when that gets built, but as I said, dwarves are still relatively unlikely to get jobs in such locations -- it isn't necessary, takes time, and I don't use this burrow much.
Burrow 3: "Cavern Fort 85A". Select most of the squares that can be mined without going into untamed cavern from the very top level of the caverns down to 85 (or whatever number seems convenient given your cavern placements) above z-0. There are some things you might not know about the caverns to that depth, but be permissive. Civilian dwarves need have some sort of job within the defined area to head there, so discovering more cavern tiles without deliberately mining into them isn't that likely to result in dwarves running out to collect refuse. Don't bother excluding cavern areas with no floor tiles for the same reason.
Don't worry too much about being tile perfect, just select the things you vaguely think you might mine in the future. You'll figure out it's your burrow when the dwarves never get around to mining your designation if you expand there, which you probably won't. It may often be faster to select tiles by painting a large area, and then unpainting the danger zones in that area depending on the shape (for instances, painting around a rectangular unsafe area takes at minimum four designations, painting everything then unpainting that rectangular area takes only two). Creating this may take around 20 minutes or more, with the time to do this depending on how careful you are and how complex your cavern layout is (lots of z-levels greatly extends how long this takes). Yeah, painting this is tedious, but it solves so many problems really elegantly. If it's too tedious, consider using an Airlock instead.
Burrow 4: "Fort Expansion/B85." Leave it blank for now, but rather than constantly updating the above burrow, I add stuff here as needed and have an easy way to send my civilians back into familiar territory if something goes awry. Note that the z-level indicators starting in '-' are relative to ground level and are not uniform across a z-level.
Theoretically adding a burrow for your military to auto-engage cavern denizens in using the "defend burrow" order could be pretty neat, but I've not done that yet. You don't need a burrow for your Trade Depot since the priority of the "Trade at Depot" job was greatly increased a long time go. On the other hand a TATRD: Temple-Acquisition-Tavern-Residences-Dining burrow might be useful for helping reduce stress, however.
Assign CIV to "Above Caverns", "Cavern Fort 85A", and "Fort Expansion/B85" during the "Inactive" alert and your civilian dwarves will stay where they belong.
 
9. Fortress Layout. You can still have workshops with doors on them, in fact, the next order of business is getting mined out stockpiles (dwarven demand for stockpiles is pretty hefty, and you don't want your dwarves to have to walk too far cavern soil) and a normal (if smaller than otherwise) workshop level for your most and least important workshops. Also a dormitory. Hold off on your temples until the first caravan leaves, but after that you have the opportunity to create a small one with the extra space you have for no additional work. You can replace that with a grand cathedral later.
Find the 2nd cavern level if you haven't already and finish properly sealing off your caverns but the barracks next to where you send military dwarves into expeditions into the caverns is low priority. Also continue with building the stuff you'd regularly build. Dining hall, cistern (perhaps you want to use water from the 2nd cavern level for this if there is none in the 1st?), ramps leading outside (ideally next to where you'd send your military into the caverns for a single point of defense) the lot. I recommend setting dwarves to dump "other" refuse, which auto-dumps vermin remains, among other things. I wouldn't be too worried about subterranean defenses next to your barracks until you have surface defenses set up, the 1st cavern layer is unlikely to have anything to keep you up at night with training military dwarves on watch.
As far as I can tell the only truly dangerous building destroyers in the 1st cavern level able to destroy rock doors are certain Forgotten Beasts. These should be fairly rare in the first year of a fort when you are only vulnerable to FBs from the 1st cavern level (a flying one has to me before and I did get leveled by it) and some FBs are not very deadly. Trolls are another cavern building destroyer but will fall to a even a single military dwarf.
The 2nd cavern level has a bunch of more dangerous fliers and climbers, but the only additional dangerous building destroyers (not the only building destroyers) are the Voracious Cave Crawler and Blind Cave Ogre, the latter of which is indeed very dangerous. Moral of the story: Seal all the way to the cavern roof before bothering to replace doors with bridges. This is not true of outside-facing defenses, which can be more dangerous. Any defenses facing the 3rd cavern level must be building-destroyer-proof to do their job.
Constructing a Dump Chute is almost mandatory to allow dwarves to dispose of Troglodyte corpses without seeing other Troglodyte corpses. Making one dump chute next to where your military is stationed and one somewhat below your main staircase should mean that Troglodyte corpse dumping and stone dumping doesn't get in the way of each other too much, and if one Troglodyte corpse gets in the main staircase chute it doesn't cause any problems until you start needing the stone from there (this is what the 'a'ctive setting on activity zones is for, deactivate that dump zone and re-dump Troglodyte corpses out of the main staircase chute). If the bottom of the dump chute dwarf-accessible, you will need to make sure that where the dumped goods land is also a dump zone or they will be dumped again.
 
10. There's Loot in the Caverns. Regularly send your squad to seek out cavern denizens to train up and to supply your butcher. Strong squads will also make surface dangers less. You'll want two separate squads when you get enough migrants so you have one group seek cavern foes while the other group remain available for defense.
Besides the obvious trees to cut, shrubs to pick (those two only in caverns with at least a little water), and webs to collect, there are also a few useful vermin to catch with animal traps in the first couple cavern levels. That is, cave spiders (preferably tamed) and purring maggots (untamed only!). Both of these vermin are hateable, and the former can actually be dangerous.
 
That's basically the gist. Everything else is pretty normal, refer to steps 7+ in my other guide if you really want tips on what to build next. Once you have an indoor depot, make sure not to wait too long before sending goods to your depot, IIRC traders will start leaving at the same time of year as usual so they won't spend as much time sitting at the depot proper if the path too the depot is inordinately long (unless you make the path particularly circuitous, I think a depot at -120 would be just fine).
As with every other embark, knowing a few things about sealing tunnels is important. When building long walls that need to be sealed to the roof, bridges are more resource efficient and therefore faster-to-build scaffolds for the walls than floors. Having an early military is even more important than usual. Unlike before, knowing how to build constructed towers and safely remove multiple z-level pillars or towers are important skills to deal with the natural open space present in caverns. Moreover, a cistern from cavern water is more likely to have enemies attempt to enter, so build with that in mind. Additionally, it may be useful to know how to tell cavern levels apart. It isn't always possible to tell the 1st cavern level apart from the 2nd, but there are signs.

Building Towers:

Towers in the cavern are pretty darn easy to designate if you can mine out the staircase rather than construct it. The big rule is this: construct floors before walls to avoid dwarves getting stuck, and if you don't want "rounded" walls with corners on the inside, you'll either need to construct some sort of scaffolding or suspend the construction of one of the wall pieces next to each corner and use the implied floor from the wall below, one z-level at a time because dwarves will only make constructions from orthogonal tiles. A square tower of arbitrary height (but the floor will be no wider than 19x19 without multiple staircases) can be constructed waiting only five times for the dwarves to complete their work if only you can mine out the staircase. Otherwise it's 5+N waits (you can do it two waits less by relying on implied floors from walls of the level below, but I think it's easiest just to do the steps I line out below after having constructed the entire stair) because you can't order constructions built on top of unconstructed constructions even if they are stairs and even if it's obvious they can support each other, ugh. The following steps assume a 1x1 pillar that you can mine out, larger natural pillars may require some minor adaptation in how step 2 is executed, and the tower may be wider than 19x19.
Step 1. Designate your mined-out staircase, wait for that to complete. If you have more than just a 1x1 pillar, you will want to mine out each level, or destroy them first (see the next section). While this is happening, you'll want to make sure plenty of stone is both available and nearby to your project, because constructions use specific materials set aside at time of designation, not the nearest material at time of construction. You can also stockpile a specific type of stone(s) to make your constructed tower a single color(s).
Step 2. Have all of your floors constructed (each floor will require four designations, and each designation must have one tile orthogonal to your stairs). Wait for that to complete. Hint: for a tower with a 5x5 floor, two of your floors will be 2x3, and two of your floors will be 3x2, there is no other way to do a large (11x11 or more) tower in one step for a 1x1 pillar of stairs.
**Step 3.* Then have all of your walls EXCEPT for one wall adjacent to each corner constructed, you will need designate the corner walls together with the wall adjacent to each corner that you do construct, otherwise the game will not recognize that the wall is connected. Instead of the wall adjacent to each corner that you do not construct, instead, construct a temporary floor (or 1x2 bridge) to provide access to that corner tile. The dwarves might suspend the construction of a wall that they can't reach if they don't build the floors/bridges first, but outside of that you don't need further input to get the corner walls built. Wait for that to complete
Step 4. Remove your floobridge. Wait for that to complete.
Step 5. Build the final 4 walls on each level.
See also the wiki page that describes more or less how this sort of thing works, and how to fix mistakes in construction.

Removing Pillars.

So, not creating cave-ins should be easy, but sometimes it isn't. One case when it isn't is removing an entire pillar structure while also trying not to be painstaking about designating only a few channels at a time. The key to doing this quickly is the difference between Channel and Carve Ramp. In many cases these are identical in function, but not all. My experiments lead me to believe the following.
Channel: The dwarf must be able to path to the z-level the channel is designated on. They do not need to be on that z-level. I suspect channeling from below works on the same principle that building destroyers trying to destroy buildings from below works on. Because dwarves may be standing on the same z-level they are channeling from, it is possible for one dwarf to channel the rock from under another dwarf. This is usually harmless, but isn't OHS compliant. Channeling is the only way I've found to remove a carved down staircase.
Carve Ramp: Ramp carving may be done from on the same z-level or above regardless of the considerations that apply to channeling. If dwarves feel like pathing to the level above, it is possible for one dwarf to cave a ramp from under another dwarf, but if they can't initially path to the z-level above, they won't bother to, as there will always be a job right next to them. Additionally, ramps cannot be used to remove the tile above an already mined out tunnel. This makes designating entire levels to remove with Carve Ramp both more and less safe. More safe because it's more independent of order, less safe because if you miss an overhang on the level, you're going to cause a cave in for sure (though in every case this is true there is a high risk of channeling causing the same cave-in). Carve Ramp cannot remove stairs.
While channeling out each level entirely seems to work just fine, sometimes the dwarves will find themselves unable to complete the channeling, because they don't leave a path to do so. One way to do avoid this is to use priority levels and only channel the outermost tiles first. However, a faster, better way to do this is to use carve ramp on the level below, and only use channeling to remove stairs. Annoyingly, if the stairs are not removed before the carve ramp orders happen, it is likely for a dwarf to choose a carve ramp order at the far end of the pillar. This isn't usually bad exactly, but it looks awkward and dwarves will remove tiles that other dwarves are standing on.
Therefore the following instructions will quickly and safely remove a pillar with no overhangs.
Step 1. Designate staircase all the way up the pillar.
Step 2. Designate a channel on the staircase of the uppermost level to prevent pathing. Wait for this to be complete. There is no other way to remove the down staircase without causing a cave-in, and that is, IMO, the most arcane thing about the whole process. I definitely hurt some dwarves while testing this.
Step 3. Designate up ramps on the level below the target (uppermost) level. Wait for this to be complete.
Step 4. Repeat step #2 and #3 until only the ground level remains.
Step 5. Designate a channel on the final up/down staircase. Wait for that to be complete.
Step 6. Designate remove up-stairs/ramps on the final up staircase and any remaining ramps.
If there is an overhang, that is, any tile that has empty space below it. That tile must be channeled, as an up ramp cannot be designated below it, and if the tile is ignored it will become a cave-in for obvious reasons. WARNING: in the case of an overhang of more than one tile only the outermost tiles can be safely channeled.

Removing Towers.

Removing towers is is like above, but instead of mining designations, "remove construction" is used. On wall tiles, this works almost exactly like regular mining, and on floor tiles works almost exactly like channeling and has all of the same risks. Once the walls are removed, removing the floor tiles must be done exactly like an N-tile overhang (because that is what it is). Remove the outermost floors only, and do not remove further floors until that is complete. But wait, there's more. Is almost certainly possible for dwarves to remove floors that other dwarves are standing on and it may be less safe to do this than to carve a ramp under a dwarf. To avoid this, only remove every other outermost tile (corners first), so that no two dwarves will be working on adjacent tiles removing each other's platform. Once that is complete, remove the staircase pieces one at a time from the top down.
There are almost certainly somewhat faster ways to remove a tower, but this strategy is simple to describe.
submitted by genkernels to dwarffortress [link] [comments]

Wells Fargo stock analysis

Source: Bireme Report
Wells Fargo
We added two positions in the quarter. One of them was megabank Wells Fargo. The COVID-19 crisis caused a lot of pain for bank investors during the first quarter, and Wells Fargo was no exception. In fact, the stock was dropping even before the virus reached NYC, down about 13% in January while the broader market was flat. WFC then proceeded to fall 47% to its lows on the year around $25. We invested towards the end of the quarter, with an average price of ~$27.50. What we saw in Wells Fargo was a bank with a long history of solid, growing earnings that is facing a number of short- to medium-term problems:
Business-practice issues of its own making.
Potential COVID-19 related loan losses.
Falling interest rates. We could fill many pages with discussion of the firm’s client relations and HR scandals -- opening accounts for clients without their permission, putting wealth management clients in unsuitable investment products, failing to respond to HR complaints, gender bias in hiring and promotion, illegally repossessing borrower motor vehicles, etc. The market has punished the stock since these
The market has punished the stock since these issues came to light, with WFC underperforming peers by 50% since 2015. Wells Fargo today reminds us of Facebook in Q4 2018 (which we wrote about here). In both cases, investors unduly shunned a fundamentally sound company that made mistakes involving breaches of customer trust. While admittedly reprehensible, the scandals at both FB and WFC are more impactful to social media sentiment than to long-term free cash flows.
Availability bias causes human beings to place disproportionate weight on this type of story. Breaches of customer trust rightfully disgust the public, and investors find it distasteful to be long a company whose CEO is chastised by Congress. Our investment strategy is predicated on identifying and exploiting these investor biases; we thrive on situations where short-term issues obfuscate the underlying health and long-term earnings power of a business.
The vast majority of revenue for Wells Fargo is generated by interest on loans, and we don’t see much evidence that the long-term volume or credit quality of these loans have been a!ected by the scandals of the past three years.
In fact, Wells Fargo’s relationship with consumers and businesses appears to be healthy. All of the following key metrics are flat-to-up since 2016: loans (flat), deposits (flat), customer checking accounts (+3%), debit card purchase volume (+21%), consumer card purchase volume (+17%), commercial card purchase volume (+28%), and branch visit satisfaction score (+3%). But even these figures understate the health of WFC’s business: the lack of growth in the loan book is due entirely to an asset cap put in place by regulators to punish the company for its transgressions. If not for that cap, loans and deposits would almost certainly have grown.
For this 168-year-old franchise, we paid less than 7 times trailing earnings. We do expect those earnings to fall in the short term as COVID-19-related loan loss provisions hit the income statement. However, WFC’s balance sheet and core profitability provides plenty of margin to absorb these losses. Wells Fargo’s net charge-o!s peaked at 2.2% of average loans outstanding during the financial crisis. While this level of net charge-o!s would’ve been enough to wipe out last year’s earnings, it would not have impaired the firm’s book equity (assuming that dividends and buybacks were suspended temporarily).
Our base case is that the current crisis will be extremely sharp in the short term, but not worse than the financial crisis in the long term unemployment, home prices, and loan defaults. For one, consumers are in a better position. In 2008, debt service payments (mostly due to high mortgage payments) were over 13% of disposable income. Today, that number is below 10%. US households’ equity in their homes has doubled since year-end 2008, to almost $20 trillion today. Second, the banking sector -- whose meltdown exacerbated if not caused the 2008 crisis -- is much better capitalized, with Tier 1 common equity ratios up from about 8% in 2007 to 12% today.2 Interest rates have fallen substantially -- mortgage rates, for example, have fallen by about half a percent in the last year -- and thus Wells Fargo will generate less net interest income. Current Street estimates are for $43.9b in net interest income, a decline of $3.3b versus 2019. Given that lower interest rates are prevalent across the yield curve, we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.
However, we believe Wells Fargo has a significant opportunity to o!set much of that lost income by cutting costs. The firm’s efficiency ratio,” the ratio of non-interest expenses to revenue, has become one of the worst in the industry in recent years. Partly this is due to the firm’s regulatory problems, which we estimate have cost $5b per year in legal fees, settlements, and compliance costs. As they put these issues behind them, we think they should be able to achieve an efficiency ratio similar to their peers at JP Morgan and Bank of America. This implies they may be able to shed $8-10b of total costs, which would more than o!set the lost interest income from lower rates. Management has stated that they are focused on this task.
Over time, we estimate that WFC will be able to generate about $15-18b of profits per year, only slightly lower than the $18-20b they generated between 2017 and 2019. The stock trades at 6-7.5x the new earnings level, which we find quite cheap given the long-term stability of the business and the stickiness of client accounts.
submitted by cheechuu to stocks [link] [comments]

Hertz Stock SUSPENDED (Going out of Business?) Trade Setup For July 6, 2020 Adopt me trading proofs S. Korean stocks plunge on Friday; trading halted shortly after opening Violent protests in Khuma temporarily suspended

In order to optimize our service and improve users’ trading experience, OKEx decides to have a system maintenance at 8: 3 0 a.m. on Aug 14, 2020 (UTC). The affected service includes options trading only. During maintenance, features of market quote, order placement, order cancellations, order amendments could be affected for Options Trading. suspended at this time. 10. What will happen to my funds if I have already deposited them for a purchase but the trades have not been placed as yet? The funds can be temporarily held in an IIP non-interest bearing cash account pending the lifting of the trading suspension where after they will be invested in FWHRE. In response to earlier market disruption that affected several trading platforms, including BitMax.io, the platform temporarily suspended withdrawal, and promptly identified the root cause and An instrument might be suspended from trading if a price quote hasn't been received for a period of 5 minutes. This will prevent you from wrong executions and ensure healthy trading conditions in the future. The following services will be temporarily suspended: • Spot trading in all markets • Margin trading in all markets • Transfers to, from, and between spot and margin accounts • Withdrawal • Spot and margin trading via API The upgrade is expected to last 3.5 hours, during which other services like deposit will remain operational.

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Hertz Stock SUSPENDED (Going out of Business?)

Options Trading for Beginners (The ULTIMATE In-Depth Guide) - Duration: ... Don Jr. blasts Twitter after being temporarily suspended - Duration: 9:18. Fox News 60,519 views. New; The stock market halts trading when the S&P 500 drops a certain amount in one trading day. A 7% and 13% drop leads to a 15 minute pause in trading so long as the drop happens before 3:25 PM EST. 1. Day Trading Course - FULL GUIDE https://bit.ly/2C3dnMU 2. Those Diagonal Trend Lines On My Screen https://bit.ly/2XOp7uR 3. Custom Volume Scanner https://... Roblox username: Rokiah201. Brandenburg Gate, German Parliament and more! -360° City Tour #2: Berlin Minecraft BTE Germany - Duration: 8:09. Build The Earth Germany Recommended for you. New • PSE suspends trading until further notice • National Commission on Muslim Filipinos temporarily suspends Islamic religious activities • Mass transport systems suspended until April 12, 2020

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