Trading 212 Review 2020 - WARNING! Read before registering!

My trading blog: first > 100-million-ISK-profit trade

Today is Day 45 of my trading "blog" and the first major activity since day 22 (link to previous blog post: https://www.reddit.com/Eve/comments/fcp2g3/my_trading_blog_finally_doubled_my_wealth/)

I started trading 44 days ago, on February 11, 2020, with the intention of making the majority of my wealth trading. As you can see, I have stuck to that promise, making 99.3% of my money in trade (although I did go out and do some of the tutorial pvp missions, as I was bored of sitting in a station all day, and for other ... reasons ... as you will see)
My current income sources
So anyway, not much happened between Day 22 and Day 30. I traded some fuel blocks, bought some skills, etc.
I also had my first few major unsuccessful orders. I tried to buy a lot of things, my orders stagnated for several days, and it felt absolutely awful to cancel those orders and waste the broker's fee. But it's always better to admit that you made a mistake and move on**, rather than irrationally invest because you don't want to hurt your pride.** I then bought and sold a couple of cruisers and made some cash, enough to bring my balance up to around 90 million ISK when all was said and done.
I don't know whether to call this luck or skill, but I somehow found a ship where there was (relatively) a lot of trading activity going on, and yet the profit margin was over 60%. So I took a gamble and spent nearly all of my roughly 90 million ISK balance on it. This occurred on March 12, 2020, or Day 31.

Oh, and by the way, the Broker Relations update was on March 10 ... yeeaaahhh ... so every time I needed to update my single extremely risky order, that was another 400k ISK down the drain. Which seems like a small number, but is definitely a very large number when your total balance is only a few million ISK and you have no other way to make money (remember, I promised to not supplement my income too much with explo or mining or anything else).

So anyway, I felt extremely stupid sitting there and wasting a million ISK a day for an order that was never going to get satisfied. I realized that I was going to actually run out of ISK, and wouldn't be able to sell it again! This would be catastrophic! So I did what any self-respecting noob in my position would do: I boarded a free corvette and played the pvp tutorial missions!! Which were actually pretty fun. I didn't feel like I was cheating at my challenge, since my overall income from this was probably no more than 2 million ISK.

And one day later, someone fulfilled my order!! But this was going to be the REALLY tough part, because I was re-selling it for a lot more, which means that the re-listing costs would be proportionally higher as well. Every update now costed a whopping 1.1 million ISK. I was running out of cash FAST. I limited myself to only 1 update per day but it was still super scary...

My time was ticking and I had only 2 more day's worth of cash left. At this point, I was really desperate, and I placed some overpriced buy orders for frigates so that I could re-sell them quickly. The problem is, no one actually sold to them. I still have no idea why. So I had now worked myself into a hole: I had only 1 more order update worth of cash remaining.

In a last Hail-Mary of desperation, I decided to vastly under-price my sell order. I was officially out of cash. Like, completely out. I had only 17,212 ISK left.
And with my luck, someone undercut me by 100,000 ISK the next day. Big RIP. I felt like quitting EVE for a few weeks. Then I thought I might as well try to tour the various star systems in the neighboring regions, because I like spaceships and stars and space stations and they look cool. And then someone shot my frigate down in high sec space (????) but luckily I escaped with my pod. But either way, I was on a total downward streak. Like tilting, except it wasn't my fault - just random unlucky occurrences one after another.
There was one silver lining: all the other sellers, besides that one guy, decided to stay at their original prices. And they would have been stupid to follow me anyway. I was acting out of desperation.

Fast-forward two more days and it finally sells. This was my longest-running buy/sell ever. It took 9 days for my buy order to be satisfied and 5 days for my sell order to be satisfied - i.e. 2 weeks in total. But when all was said and done ... over 100 million sweet ISK in profits, from 1 single order! (I guess, 2, if you count the buy and sell separately) Very cool, very nice. I really had to work for that money!

P.S. this ship is now in extremely high demand with very few sellers, so it's not like you or I can just use this to make a free 100 million ISK every month.
P.P.S. I have a secret admirer on eve that downvotes my post as soon as I post it. It's happened 3 times so far! ILY, secret admirer! ❤️
submitted by Agent-008 to Eve [link] [comments]

Hey WSB, WTF is logistics?

Hey WSB, WTF is logistics?
Good evening autists,
I've decided to make this post in order to give you all insight of what I see as a underexamined area of weakness (especially in this sub) and I believe is a possible harbinger of what lies ahead, which is the logistics industry. There are many moving parts and niches in the industry and most businesses rely on logistics services to support their operations (from the supply of raw materials, moving product from manufacturer to distribution center, clearing freight through customs, storage, or delivering final products to stores or customer's door). There are steamship lines (SSLs), airlines (ALs), freight forwarders, customs brokers, truckers, distribution centers, warehouses and they all participate to assist companies who import their products to different markets get them there as fast as possible (unless you're an SSL) at the lowest cost.
These services have allowed products to be made more cheaply internationally due to low labomaterial costs, mainly, which in turn allows markets to buy them cheaper. For the US, this is critical because it doesn't really manufacture much anymore as it's moved on from a manufacturing economy to a more service based economy over a handful of decades (trade deficit for March increased to $44.4 billion difference in imports over exports https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html ).
We're on a downtrend due to trade war, which is good, but $44 bil on 3month avg is basically impossible to make up for in any kind of short-term basis.
With this change from a manufacturing economy to a more service based economy, basic logistics services have seen steady growth for multiple decades. In general, when an industry is in its infancy, you have many small players (usually) and over time they consolidate. Well, this is similar to what's happened in the SSL sector of the logistics industry and this is where I'll start.
SSLs
You can do your own research, or just take my word for it, but SSL alliances have picked up starting the last decade or more ('08 recession put upward pressure on this) as record losses were prominent for almost all carriers due to over-supply and reducing demand. This fact then pushed them into rate wars (SSLs undercutting freight rates to push out competition). Rate wars then forced alliances among the SSLs. Larger players forming pacts with similar larger players in order to wipe out the smaller players, which in turn has forced the smaller players to build pacts in order to fight back. If you're wondering how this isn't an antitrust issue, it has been brought up and investigated by the DOJ though I'm not going full on into the weeds on that but basically, "Antitrust investigators believe that due to a history of legally having the ability to discuss pricing under antitrust immunity, the industry lacks a disciplined culture and is therefore susceptible to illegal activity. For example, the DOJ regularly issues a statement raising concerns after the FMC allows a shipping alliance or major vessel-sharing agreement (VSA) to take effect" * https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/us-antitrust-probe-container-shipping-ends_20190226.html (think OPEC-ish). With the formation of these pacts came investment in new containerships at a record pace. It was a race to see who could buy the largest ship in order to save cost through economies of scale and crush the competition on the highest traffic lanes globally (i.e. major import lanes like Shanghai to Los Angeles or Shanghai to Rotterdam). The first major player to fall was Korean SSL Hanjin just over 4 years ago. At the moment, we only have 3 alliances that control~80% of the capacity of ocean cargo transported globally. The breakdown of alliances is below (https://www.morethanshipping.com/the-impact-of-the-container-shipping-alliances/ ).
Pick your poison
However, unfettered competition remains within these main trades regardless of the alliances made. It is tantamount to a war of attrition and that is going to be devastating in the current environment. See below recent reports on SSLs.
An April 8th article in WSJ ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/container-ship-operators-idle-ships-in-droves-on-falling-trade-demand-11586359002 ) stated the below points
  • Container ship operators have idled a record 13% (OP Note: this easily beats the '08 recession) of their capacity over the past month as carriers at the foundation of global supply chains buckle down while restrictions under the coronavirus pandemic batter trade demand.
  • Alphaliner, based in Paris, said more than 250 scheduled sailings will be canceled in the second quarter alone, with up to a third of capacity taken out in some trade routes. The biggest cutbacks so far have hit the world’s main trade lanes, the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes.
  • Ship brokers say giant ships that move more than 20,000 containers each now are less than half full.
  • Sailing cancellations grew from 45 to 212 over the past week, according to Copenhagen-based consulting firm Sea-Intelligence. The “blanked” sailings are stretching into June, indicating operators expect the traditional peak shipping season, when retailers restock goods ahead of an expected buildup in consumer spending in the fall, will be muted this year by the lockdowns extending across economies world-wide.
  • France’s CMA CGM SA, the world’s fourth-largest container line by capacity, said this week it is idling 15 ships because retailers are pulling back orders over falling demand from European and American consumers.
  • The decision to idle, or “lay up,” ships is a difficult option for owners, as the vessels continue to generate costs without offsetting income. There are two ways to idle ships. In a “warm layup” vessels are anchored and staffed, ready to go relatively quickly when demand resumes. This means saving on operating costs such as fuel but continuing to pay crew salaries and insurance fees and make charter payments. In a “cold layup” a skeleton crew is kept on board for general maintenance but most of the ship’s systems are shut down. Returning the ship to service can cost millions of dollars and requires extensive testing to certify that the ship is safe to sail.
A May 4th article in WSJ ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-shipping-lines-may-not-survive-downturn-hapag-lloyd-chief-says-11588612964 ) stated the below points.
  • Some container shipping companies may collapse if the global trade downturn stemming from coronavirus lockdowns extends to the end of the year or beyond.
  • The shipping lines that handle the biggest share of the world’s international trade in retail and manufactured goods have canceled up to a quarter of their sailings since late February amid extensive lockdowns and collapsing demand in the U.S. and Europe.
  • The world’s top 10 liner companies, which collectively handle more than three-quarters of the world’s oceangoing container trade, are looking at steep losses from the falling business.
  • Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fifth-largest container line by capacity, according to industry data group Alphaliner, has canceled about 15% of its scheduled sailings on major ocean trade routes, including Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific operations.
  • Some carriers are trying to preserve cash by taking longer trips around Africa instead of crossing the Suez Canal, saving on canal toll costs that can reach around $500,000 for a single big ship. With fuel prices sliding under the crash in oil prices, the cost of the longer sailing makes sense. (OP Note: This increases lead times for buyers and further disrupts company's supply chains)
  • Hapag-Lloyd has thousands of land-based employees working from home and has frozen management salaries and returned leased ships to charterers. It is not looking at layoffs for now. But the carrier is pushing back an order of six megaships that move more than 20,000 containers each, to add to the six it already operates. Those megaships are the big losers with volumes crashing since many are sailing half full, giving up the benefits operators gain from the ships’ economies of scale.
Knowing the above, see a Feb 28th report ( https://splash247.com/liner-bankruptcy-potential-at-highest-levels-recorded/ ) stating the below points.
  • The collective Altman Z score of the 14 container shipping companies that publish their financials deteriorated markedly in the 12 months ending September 30, 2019, falling to 1.16 from 1.35 in all of 2018 and thereby signifying a rising probability of bankruptcy.
  • "IMO 2020 was already going to make this a year of huge disruption for the entire maritime industry," said Marc Lampieri, a managing director in the transportation and infrastructure practice at AlixPartners. "Throw in the coronavirus, the recent deterioration of some key financial measures and whatever other unforeseen disruptions lie ahead, and it's clear that preparing for the worst may be the best way to avoid the worst."
If you're unfamiliar with the Z score formula it is a calculation that predicts the probability that a firm will go into bankruptcy within two years. Anything below a score of 1.8 is considered a "very high" risk of bankruptcy.
So, if this industry sector was reduced to a 1.16 Z score for the 12 months ending Sept 2019 (5 SSLs produced a scores of less than 1 and all were under the 1.8 level), it's probably a safe bet this score has not gone up since. If more SSLs were to go bankrupt, this would further constrain capacity to even fewer SSLs who are already trying to minimize port calls and slow down how fast ships cycle through their scheduled port calls (their "string"), causing backlogs that in turn send freight rates higher. Part of the reason they do this is because of the headhaul vs. backhaul issue that occurs on many vessel strings (i.e. lots of freight moving from a ship's origin to particular destinations, but not from the destinations back to the ships origin or future port calls) causing them to issue "blank sailings" for some ports, which is their notice that the port will be skipped by a particular vessel. This causes many problems with equipment (container) availability and can further distort freight rates and cause backlogs. If they can only make money going one way, they're losing money more often than not. Furthermore, inactive containership capacity through 2020 is projected to move even higher, increasing the recent record statistic for the sector. Below articles for support.
April 8th article (https://shippingwatch.com/carriers/Containearticle12067889.ece) stating the below points.
  • The large scale sailing cancellations could push the inactive container ship fleet to over 3 Mteu in the coming weeks in the worst capacity crisis that the container shipping industry has ever seen.
  • Several routes with usually large capacity will be fully canceled in the second quarter, including 2M's major AE-2/Swan service, where 12 ships of 23,000 teu sail between Asia and North Europe. "No market segment will be spared, with capacity cuts announced across almost all key routes," writes the firm.
An article dated May 1st ( https://theloadstar.com/europe-asia-ocean-rates-hit-new-heights-as-exporters-fight-for-what-space-remains/) via the Loadstar provides an example of how capacity and rates can fluctuate and go haywire relatively quickly. Summary below.
  • Normally freight from Asia to Northern Europe is the headhaul (large volume) and the backhaul is NE to Asia (lower volume). However, due to lockdowns happening at different times in Asia vs Europe, this volume has fluctuated highly. Freight rates for NE to Asia in Jan were $500 for a 40' GP (40 ft. general purpose container), as China was in lockdown and demand was poor and space was plentiful. However, now that Europe is in lockdown and Asia is up and running, demand has spiked on the NE to Asia backhaul (as China lifted out of lockdown) and space is basically non-existent and has forced the rate for a 40' GP from a low of $500 in January to $2000 now in May. This is due to the fact that SSLs reverted to blank sailings for NE ports as demand in Europe dropped due to beervirus and caused freight rates to fall from Asia origins. They've been able to steady the rates at Asia origins at the cost of backlogs and rate spikes at backhaul ports.
For SSLs, the game is complicated and tricky while margins are razor thin and the coronavirus exacerbates this. They're trying to manage rates, whether or not to park vessels and how they should do that, which ports do they skip to save money, and how to keep cash flow (as most of them are very much in debt). Their actions then affect shippers and buyers worldwide and it becomes very difficult to manage costs through out global supply chains. When things are this uncertain, for all parties in logistics, sometimes it's like trying to catch a falling knife when moving cargo. If shippers/buyers time it right they can avoid extra costs but if they are trying to ship at the wrong time they're going to feel the pain in the form of high freight rates, delays (which increase storage/demurrage costs), and chargebacks from shipper's/buyer's customer who receive cargo late (depending on terms and conditions of their contracts).
SSL TL;DR - Steamship lines have been broken for a while but beervirus has potential to be the catalyst to push many over the edge into insolvency. In order to stabilize freight rates, SSLs have been parking container ships at a record pace with capacity projected to shrink by more than 3 million TEU (20' container equivalent), which has never happened before. The more SSLs revert to parking vessels in order to stabilize freight rates, the closer it pushes them to bankruptcy (a double edge sword, if you will) and in turn the more companies will pay to move freight in the future. Even if no SSLs go bankrupt, companies will be paying more to move freight regardless due to virus disruption.

ALs
There has been much already addressed and available about the ALs and I'm just going to assume you're more aware of their history as compared to the SSLs, so I'll make this section short and only provide the details most of you might not get if you're not really involved with logistics.
An article published on May 4th (https://www.stattimes.com/news/global-air-cargo-capacity-down-by-29-seabury-reports/ ) stated the below points (w/ visuals).
You already knew this but ALs getting hammered due to passenger decline related to beervirus. That in turn has affected the flow and capacity of airfreight
Passenger aircraft belly capacity reached an all time low at the beginning of April. It has rebounded slightly, but forecasts shows capacity will not be returning to normal in 2020
  • Global air cargo capacity is -29% on a YOY basis. (OP Note: A 23% increase in capacity was seen the week of April 22nd-28th for passenger belly aircraft, which is heartening, but considering capacity dropped well over 80%, this recent gain would only constitute ~ 4.5% return to previously normal capacity seen at the beginning of February)
  • US- Europe lanes have have had the largest impact so far, but disturbances have been felt on every lane globally and the Europe/Africa, Europe/South America routes are still seeing capacity constraints between 60% and 88%.
So, matching the economic data we've seen recently, airline capacity data is abysmal.
Another article release today by the NY Times also states the dire circumstances ALs face currently (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/business/airlines-coronavirus-bleak-future.html?auth=link-dismiss-google1tap). This article isn't particularly logistics focused, but it provides insight into the passenger side of ALs, which is where they make a majority of their revenue. I've added important points below.
  • Passenger traffic is down about 94% and half the industry's 6,215 planes are parked at major airports and desert airstrips.
  • To get through the next few months, airlines successfully lobbied for a huge federal rescue. But half of that money was intended to cover payroll and that will run out by the end of September.
  • Desperate to preserve cash, the airlines have also aggressively discouraged customers from seeking refunds, offering vouchers for future travel instead...(and) the industry trade group Airlines for America, said that refunding all tickets could lead to bankruptcy.
  • Payrolls have largely been spared the ax, for now, because Congress set aside $25 billion to pay workers through September as long as airlines refrain from imposing furloughs or pay cuts. But some airlines have already tested those limits, and executives have signaled that layoffs will come when those protections expire.
  • Most industry analysts and executives expect years to pass before airlines fly as many passengers as they did before the pandemic. Even then, a rebound may come in fits and starts, propelled by medical advancements, an economic rebound and shifts in the public’s tolerance for risk.
  • Take China, for example. The number of domestic flights there started to recover in mid-February, but plateaued in early March at just over 40 percent of levels before the outbreak, according to the International Air Transport Association, a global industry group. (OP Note: The gain back to 40% could be attributed to the large backlog left from China lockdown and Lunar New Year holiday at the beginning of Feb)
  • The airlines are triaging. Even as they slim down to preserve cash, they are finding ways to make what little money they can. Many have put otherwise unneeded planes to use transporting cargo, including medical supplies, taking advantage of a spike in freight prices.

ALs TL;DR - With beervirus, passenger belly space has shrunk to unprecedented levels, causing air freight rates to increase by 5 or 6 times their normal costs on many lanes as planes are parked. Companies are forced to pay through the nose for air freight when cargo critical to their operations is needed due to SSL capacity constraints and the extended lead times across all modes of transportation. Companies trying to utilize air cargo will be paying higher costs indefinitely as air capacity doesn't look to return to normal within 2020.

Last, I'd like to move on to look at US inventories and US consumer spending as they are the major catalyst when it comes to freight demand. Using US census data, summarized in the below table (this is preliminary data, so not reflecting recent update today but breakdown takes this into account) , tradingeconomics.com ( https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wholesale-inventories ) provides this breakdown of Us inventories: "Wholesale inventories in the US fell 0.8 percent month-over-month in March of 2020, less than an initial estimate of a 1 percent drop. Still, it is the biggest decline in inventories since September of 2011. Stocks of nondurable goods slumped 2.7 percent (vs –2.6 percent in the preliminary estimate), while durable goods inventories edged up 0.5 percent (vs 0.1 percent in the preliminary release). Year-on-year, wholesale inventories were down 1.7 percent in March."
https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/tab2adv.pdf
Typically, high inventory points to economic slowdown, while a low reading points to stronger growth. However, this generality is not true in the current environment. We're seeing inventories lower due to supply shocks presented by the beervirus but at the same time we're seeing major demand shocks so we have this peculiar instance where inventories have fallen the most in over a decade, but still did not fall as much as expected.
Now look at consumer spending ( https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-spending ).
Splash Mountain
And now with tradingeconomics.com forecast.
https://preview.redd.it/657ykdocy1y41.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=76997dad3a5c80c6fe82186241cf690bf94f7cf6
I argue that this shows supply is catching up to demand, as we can see that consumer spending has fallen off a cliff and is projected to fall further.
So, you might be wondering, what does all of this means and what am I getting at?
Within logistics there is a phenomenon that occurs when supply and demand are not managed and become dislocated. This is called the Bullwhip Effect. With the turmoil associated around major players in the logistics industry (SSLs & ALs) and general uncertainty in regards to the the economic outlook, we can expect increased costs associated with inventory, if companies have too much inventory (which is looking like the lesser of two evils IMO depending on the situation), or increased cost in freight spend, if companies don't have enough inventory (which, considering the wild swings in rates, could be devastating in cost). Either way, the point is cost. Costs are going to go up to move all the consumer goods we have been accustomed to buying so cheapy over the last decades of the expansion of the global market place that was supported by the expansion of capacity in global SSLs and ALs. That is why I'm not buying the deflation narrative that is being passed around currently and supported by the FED. Logistics services have been widely overlooked as a major contributor to the deflation in CPI we've seen over the last decade or so, as this coincides with the alliances created in SSLs and rate wars that ensued. We will see consumer prices increase and inflation will return whether the economy rebound quickly or not. I am short gold, silver, and select precious metal equities, long on global risk assets until this mess can be sorted out.


TL;DR - Logistics services have expanded with globalization and have become key players in keeping companies operating smoothly. SSLs have been creating alliances over the last decade, which caused rate wars (lowering freight costs). Due to beervirus, SSLs and ALs are severely hampered and are parking assets at a record pace, severely reducing capacity that is extremely difficult to expand in any kind of short-term basis. The disruption to supply chains will cause bullwhip effects across supply chains worldwide. This will raise prices for most goods with certainty. I am short gold, silver, and select precious metal equities, long on global risk assets until this mess can be sorted out.
submitted by xcessinmoderation to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Covid-19 update 2nd March

Good morning from the UK.

Virus update

The WHO dashboard (NB: doesn't work that well on mobile phones) currently reports global infections are at 88,913 at time of writing. 62 countries have now reported cases; notable countries include China (80,174, up from 79,251 on Saturday), South Korea (4,212, up from 3,150 on Saturday), Italy (1,689, a significant jump from 888 on Saturday), Iran (978, up from 593 on Saturday) whilst Germany, France and Singapore are now all into triple digits. Indonesia - the fourth most populated country in the world has also now reported 2 cases. An article in Canadian media claimed two days ago that the state of British Columbia had so far tested more people than the whole of the USA (link).
Reactions to the virus are varying by country; South Korea has extended school shutdowns until March 23rd according to CNN (Link), Milan's famous La Scala opera house and Paris's Louvre museum (home to the Mona Lisa) were both shut down (also from the CNN link), Nike has shutdown its European HQ in the Netherlands after an affection there (Sydney Morning Herald, link) whilst the Spring sumo tournament in Japan (one of their six major sumo tournaments each year) will be held behind closed doors (The Guardian, link). NZ meanwhile is reporting panic buying in some areas according to a large radio station there (link) leading the prime Minister Jacinda Ahern to comment "I'm absolutely confident ... the health system is responding as we would expect. What has been beyond our control have been what I would call irresponsible headlines. If you need a bottle of milk, go and get it. If you don't, do not react in any other way than you would on any other day."

China supply chain

Air pollution significantly drops - hat tip to BuffaloTurkey78 who beat me to it (Link to his post here) - the BBC has run a report from NASA which says that Nitrous Dioxide emissions have fallen sharply in China suggesting that manufacturing activity was much reduced. If you're more interested, the original source article from NASA is available here; the NO2 emissions were between 10-30% below normal levels. Another article is in Time magazine (link) which estimates CO2 emissions to have dropped by 100m metric tonnes - the equivalent of Chile's annual output.
Guardian: China has been transferring detained Uighurs to factories used by global brands - Articles have emerged in both the Guardian Link and the FT (Link, hat tip u/xlxlxlxlxlxlxlx) from a report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that Chinese authorities are using up to 80,000 detained Muslim minority Uighurs in alleged forced labour for manufacturing. The articles go on to say that companies that these factories supply include Apple, Huawei, VW and Nike. The transferred workers typically undergo “ideological training outside working hours, are subject to constant surveillance, and are forbidden from participating in religious observances”, according to ASPI. Exporting products made by prison labour is against Chinese law, as well as the World Trade Organization’s member rules, although prison labour has been documented across various parts of China’s export supply chain. Case studies highlighted in the report, titled Uyghurs for Sale, include Qingdao Taekwang Shoes, a factory in eastern China that produces shoes for Nike. Apple, Nike and VW all provided statements to the Guardian, the TLDR of which is they all remain committed to the highest standards of supply chain integrity and that use of forced labour is banned by them. (Personal note to the above: This can seriously damage a company's credibility with CSR - corporate social responsibility. Another example was with the major UK supermarket Tesco in the run up to last Christmas; a six year old girl opened a box of cards to discover a plea for help inside them saying "We are foreign prisoners in Shanghai Qinqpu prison China*. Forced to work against our will. Please help us and notify human rights organization.”* Link to a story on that particular incident for anyone interested).

Supply chain specifics update

Largest annual container shipping event cancelled just hours before opening - Splash247 reports (link) that TPM, which was expected to attract 2,400 delegates from around the world - was cancelled just hours before it was scheduled to begin, citing the deteriorating situation with regards to the virus.

Disrupted supply of goods from China hurting Eastern Africa - Another example of how China exports all over the world; the key seaport of Mombasa in Kenya reports that four big cargo ships that ply the seas back and forth between China and East Africa have failed to dock for the second month in the row. The port is the gateway for cargo imports and exports for Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda as well as parts of Ethiopia and the DRC. The article goes on to discuss impact to air cargo traffic (Kenyan Airlines has lost $8m USD in revenues so far) while multiple other African airlines have also cancelled flights to China Link

West Africa also experiencing the same problems - Leadership magazine in Nigeria reports (Link) that the seafreight disruption is costing an estimated 1bn Naira per day (approx $2.7m USD). Port calls fell an estimated 30% in February with some importers afraid to receive cargoes that have arrived from China. Oil prices also dropping significantly which will add to the economic problems in the country - they account for 2/3 of state revenues (source: FT, behind paywall)

iPhone camera supplier closes South Korean factory due to infections - The LG Innotek factory that supplies iPhone camera modules has closed in Gumi, South Korea after the first case of coronavirus was discovered in the workforce, delivering yet another blow to the Apple supply chain says AppleInsider (link). The factory is known to provide camera modules for the iPhone 11 although whether it's involved in production for the iPhone 12 is not known (if that's the case, it may impact the launch date of the iPhone 12). The factory hopes to reopen tomorrow (Tuesday).

Indian automotives getting hit by parts shortages - the Indian newspaper Deccan Herald reports that Tata, M&M and MG are reporting shortages of automotive parts due to the virus outbreak (link) with a senior executive at M&M quoted as saying the shortages are expected to last for several more weeks at a minimum.

Other automotives setting up war rooms - CNBC says (link) that several automotives have set up specialist "war rooms" to work to keep automotive parts rolling into factories to avoid expensive stoppages. The CEO of Llamasoft, a specialist analytics supply chain firm said that it too had followed suit after a large influx of requests for help from their clients which include Detroit automotives, Boeing, and Walmart. They provide an example where they helped a client find an alternative brake pads supplier within 48 hours and airfreighted four weeks supply.

Global and domestic travel freeze for non essential travel for Amazon employees - Multiple sources including techrepublic (link) are reporting that Amazon has banned non essential travel both domestically and internationally until the beginning of April at the earliest. Google has taken a softer approach, for now banning travel for its employees only to those countries/areas with significant outbreaks. The list of cancelled tech expo/events continues to grow; these include F8, MWC, Facebook's annual marketing conference, DEF CON China amongst others.

American supermarkets preparing for surge in demand in staple food and cleaning products - the WSJ reports (link) that various supermarket firms in the US are ramping up efforts to keep products in stock amid an expected jump in demand particularly for hand sanitizer, tissues, disinfectants and other related products. (Personal note: shortages for now appear to be limited, I'm not seeing reports of significant issues in the US).

American surgeon general pleads with the public to stop buying masks - The NY Times reports (link) that Jerome Adams has asked the general public to stop buying masks to avoid exacerbating the shortages (personal note: this is a classic example of the bullwhip effect mentioned before). “Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS!” the surgeon general, Jerome M. Adams, said in a tweet on Saturday morning. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if health care providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”. The WHO said on Friday that there is now severe strains on supply chains for healthcare protective equipment around the world. The article adds that price gouging is now starting to become a problem.

For the benefit of any Americans worried about drugs shortages - I found the FDA list here.

Cannabis supply chain also affected - Bloomberg reports (link) that Cannabis retailers in North America are being affected by products shortages. Curaleaf Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. cannabis company by market value, recently stocked up on about $2 million worth of vapes from a U.S. supplier, which should last it about five months, Executive Chairman Boris Jordan said in an interview, adding he expected competitors to run out of stock soon. Margins are thin in the industry, and there is the possibility of a shake up with raw material prices going up. Jordan expects the situation to return to normal by April.

Port of Los Angeles Sees 25% Decrease of Expected Feb. 2020 Traffic - An article by the Wall Street Journal (Link) that the port expects volumes to be 25% down vs February last year meaning 176,000 fewer containers passing through the port. This is leading to empty containers and exports piling up adding to the congestion problems.
EDIT: Corrected FDA link.
submitted by Fwoggie2 to supplychain [link] [comments]

Trading 212

Boa tarde,
já alguém experimentou Trading 212?
Eles usam apenas CFD na compra de acções? Pelo que estou a ver no site deles, existe uma margin call para todos os intrumentos e depois podem fechar a conta se o teu prejuízo for maior do que o cash que tens disponível.
Ou será que há algum tipo de conta em que as acções são de facto nossas e as posições não são fechadas automaticamente?
Abraços.
submitted by JohnnyViriats to financaspessoaispt [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 26th, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 26th, 2019.

Week ahead: Stocks could be rocky on trade, economy fears, as August breaks low volatility streak - (Source)

The final week of August — the bittersweet end of summer for many— could be highly volatile, as markets fret over the economy and the latest developments in trade wars.
President Donald Trump joins the G-7 leaders in France over the weekend, and markets will be watching to see if the meeting exposes new fault lines in the shaky relations among a once fairly congenial leadership group that fought the Great Recession together. Trump is expected to discuss the U.S. economy and highlight the U.S. pro-jobs, pro-growth agenda, under his leadership.
The U.S. trade war with China escalated sharply in the past week, with a new round of tariffs from China on U.S. goods announced Friday and new threats from Trump, who “ordered” American companies to find alternatives to China. That immediately triggered speculation that the trade war will be extended and more contentious, and the U.S. economy risks falling into recession.
After the close Friday, Trump retaliated against China’s tariffs by raising existing tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% from 25%, as of Oct. 1. In a tweet, he also said he was raising new tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods that have not yet gone into effect to 15% from 10%.
Friday’s trading was volatile, and stocks fell by about 2.5%, erasing what would have been a second positive week for the market. Treasury yields, which move opposite price, continued to go lower amid worries about the economy and fears the Fed will not act aggressively enough to head off a recession.
Stocks have been volatile, and the S&P 500 is down about 4.5% in the month of August.
Michael Arone, State Street Advisors chief investment strategist said the first seven months of the year were more certain for investors in terms of their expectations for Fed rate cuts and a possible trade deal. But the trade tensions have worsened, and the trade war could escalate even further.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole Friday morning, but while he left the door open for rate cuts, he did not explicitly promise rate cuts.
“The Fed has become a lot less certain. Until we get more clarity, you’re likely to see this volatility, and stocks will trade sideways,” Arone said. Even though corporate earnings weakened, “investors took a big leap of faith in the first seven months of the year, expecting both a trade deal and monetary policy easing.”
The escalation of the trade war makes a deal unlikely anytime soon. This, however, did drive market expectations for rate cuts higher Friday afternoon, and the market was expecting three more cuts this year.
Trump tied his feuds with China and the Fed together Friday, when he tweeted that the Fed is not helping with easier rate policy, along with a question about “who is the bigger enemy” — China President Xi Jinping or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
“I think the Fed is in uncharted territory, and I continue to have empathy for Chairman Powell. I think markets want faster and more aggressive policy. He’s dealing with challenges the Fed has never had,” said Arone.
”[Powell] is literally walking a tight rope. He has the president who is daily bashing him,” he said. “Bond markets are demanding a much greater number of rate cuts, and he’s got geopolitical challenges, whether it’s Brexit or trade. He’s also got dissension among Fed voting members. That’s a lot to balance.”
There is some important data in the coming week, including durable goods Monday and personal spending and consumption data Friday, which also includes the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator.
“The data will give us some indications on business spending. Durable goods has capital expenditure orders. It looks look consumer confidence will come out [Tuesday] as well,” Arone said. Business spending has been taking a hit from the trade wars, and economists are concerned it will continue to weaken, ultimately leading to weakness in the consumer economy.
The week ahead could see some swings ahead of the long Labor Day Holiday weekend. “Given high absentees and low volumes, my guess is it’s going to add to volatility,” said Arone.
Frank Cappelleri, Nomura executive director, said he also expects volatility, and the S&P could test the outer limits of its recent range.
Of the 17 trading days this month, nine of them saw absolute 1% moves in the S&P 500. The last time that occurred was in December, when there were 10 days with 1% moves, according to Cappelleri. The most in one month was February, 2018 when there were 12. Contrast that to the entire year of 2017, when there were just eight.
Friday’s action was volatile, and the S&P 500 was down as much as 3%.
“This is the third-biggest decline we’ve had this month. Each of them started within 10 points of each other, near the top of the range,” said Cappelleri. The top of the range is 2,943, its Aug. 13 high, and the bottom is 2,820, near the Aug. 5 low.
“We’re obviously still in a trading range that has been characterized by sharp moves and acute turns, so I think when we had that initial drop on Aug. 5, the question is where is it going to stop,” he said, adding traders are watching that Aug. 5 level to see if it will act as a floor.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())
(NONE SCHEDULED FOR THIS WEEK.)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Second Half August Trading: Historically Weak Too

Following three straight days of gains, the market has recovered a sizable portion of its losses from earlier in the month. Losses earlier in the month and gains over the past three days (prior to today) have tracked August’s typical trading pattern for over the last 21-years quite closely. The magnitude of the moves this year has been larger than average, but the pattern has been tracked.
Due to the magnitude of this year’s moves, August’s performance over the past 21-years has been plotted on the left vertical axis in the chart above and 2019 is plotted on the right. From right around mid-month or now through the end of August, the historical trend has been weaker. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have all averaged a loss in August from 1998 to 2018 and they are on track to repeat this year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Is a Small-Cap Labor Day Rally Coming Soon

In the below chart, forty years of daily data for the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies are divided by the Russell 1000 index of largest companies, and then compressed into a single year to show an idealized yearly pattern. When the graph is descending, large-cap companies are outperforming small-cap companies; when the graph is rising, smaller companies are moving up faster than their larger brethren. The most prominent period of outperformance generally begins in mid-December and lasts until late-February or early March with a surge in January. This period of outperformance by small-caps is known as the “January Effect” in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In recent years, another sizable move is quite evident just before Labor Day. One possible explanation for this move is individual investors begin to return to work after summertime vacations and are searching for “bargain” stocks. In a typical year, small-caps would have been lagging and could represent an opportunity relative to other large-cap possibilities. As of Friday’s close (August 16, 2019), Russell 2000 is up 10.8% compared to the Russell 1000 being up 15.5% year-to-date. Lagging small-caps and resilient U.S. consumers could be the ideal setup for a repeat of this pattern this year. However, the small-cap advantage does historically wane around mid-September.

September Almanac: No Respite in Pre-Election Years

The start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. September gets no respite from positive pre-election year forces.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although the month used to open strong, S&P 500 has declined eight times in the last eleven years on the first trading day. As tans begin to fade and the new school year begins, fund managers tend to sell underperforming positions as the end of the third quarter approaches, causing some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (DJIA: –11.1%), 2002 (DJIA –12.4%), the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (DJIA: –6.0%) and U.S. debt ceiling debacle in 2011 (DJIA –6.0%). However, September is improving with S&P 500 advancing in ten of the last 15 Septembers and DJIA climbing in nine.

Leading Indicators Signal Growth Ahead

U.S. leading indicators rebounded in July, a good sign for the durability of the expansion.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% month over month, the biggest gain since September 2018, and above consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Leading Indicators Slowing But Growing, the LEI climbed 1.6% year over year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over year before all nine recessions since 1955.
“Some investors have pointed out slowing LEI growth as a reason for caution,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “However, the LEI is signaling moderate U.S. economic growth ahead, with no signs of an imminent recession.”
The LEI is calculated from 10 individual leading data sets, including weekly jobless claims, building permits, and stock prices. This year, the majority of LEI components have boosted month-over-month growth in the index, but more internationally exposed data sets have turned into net drags.
In July, 6 of 10 components rose month over month, but four components—average hours worked, manufacturers’ new orders, new orders for nondefense capital spending, and interest rate spreads—fell month over month. Historically, breadth in LEI components has deteriorated further before a recession began. In contrast, at the end of each of the past six economic cycles, more than half of the LEI components were in decline.
While evidence of slowing growth in leading indicators is disappointing, we are encouraged by what we see outside of manufacturing. Global manufacturing has been the sector hardest hit by prolonged trade tensions and weakened demand, and we don’t expect to see much improvement until a U.S.-China trade resolution is reached. Even then, a recovery in manufacturing may take some time.

Crude Oil's Descending Triangle

Earlier this week, crude oil was trading well over 2% higher than last Friday's close. Over the past few sessions, though, oil has given up all of those gains. The catalyst for today's declines are the Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US crude which are expected to dampen demand. This week's negative reversal comes as the commodity ran into multiple points of resistance. For starters, the rally began to stall out mid-week when it met the converging 200 and 50-day moving averages. This also coincided with a downtrend that traces itself all the way back to the highs from late last year. In fact, crude is down around 30% from these previous highs.
Overall, the technical picture for crude oil is not in a great place as the chart is forming a descending triangle pattern. Despite the big gains at the beginning of 2019, over the past few months, crude has been making consistent lower highs and lower lows. Given this most recent failure to retake the moving averages and break out of the downtrend, the next major support level to watch is around $50 which is a level that has held up at multiple times in the past few months. This support also draws back to late last year prior to the collapse in December.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yield Curves: Another Record Streak Bites the Dust

After the 3-month vs 10-year US Treasury yield curve first inverted earlier this year, the market has shifted its focus to the 2-year vs 10-year part of the curve which had yet to reach inverted levels. That was, until yesterday. While the 10s2s curve flirted with inverted territory for the last few days on an intraday basis, Thursday was the first time in more than a decade that the closing yield on the two-year US Treasury was above the yield on the 10-year. And with another closely watched part of the curve moving into inverted levels, recession fears increased.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As the chart above illustrates, it has been a while since the 10s2s curve was inverted. In fact, the streak that just ended was the longest on record going back to 1977, and it wasn't even close. Going back to 1977, there have only been three prior streaks where the 10s2s curve was inverted for more than 1,000 days, and never before had the curve been positively sloped for more than 2,000 days. The current streak, though? 3,054 days. It was fun while it lasted!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adapt or Die

A common characteristic of most investors and traders is to always be on the lookout for patterns and connections between various asset classes. Whenever one correlated asset confirms the move in another it adds a layer of confidence to an investor's thesis. One long-held example is the Dow Transports as a leading or coincident indicator for the broader market. For decades now, many investors have followed the transports for confirmation of the broader market moves. If the transports — which move all of the physical goods in the economy — rally, it suggests that the broader market will be strong, while periods when the transports start to roll over are read as a signal that there's an underlying weakness in the economy.
As the US economy has become more service and digital-oriented in nature, there has been a valid argument made that the transports have lost some of their importance as an indicator of the broader economy. Along these lines, we have suggested that rather than transports, semiconductors may represent this century's 'transports' as they are a part of just about everything in this digital age. Whether you agree with this or not isn't important, but the important takeaway is that just because two asset classes have been highly correlated in the past doesn't mean that they will remain that way in the future. It's one thing to recognize a correlation between two asset classes, but it's much more important to understand why they are correlated and be on the lookout for factors that may change the status quo in the future.
One example of a radical change in a relationship between two asset classes is the interaction between the relative strength of growth and value stocks versus the slope of the yield curve. From 2002 through 2011, the two were closely correlated. As the curve flattened in the early part of this century, growth stocks underperformed value by a wide margin (falling blue line). Then in mid-2007, as the curve steepened and came out from inverted territory, growth stocks started to rip higher relative to value. Beginning in 2009, though, the curve stopped steepening and the relative strength of growth relative to value stalled out. The two series were so closely joined at the hip during this ten-year stretch that the correlation coefficient between the two was +0.82, which is indicative of two series moving in lockstep with each other.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
If the paths of the yield curve and the relative strength of growth versus value couldn't be separated from 2002 through 2011, the relationship soured in 2012 when the two came down with a case of the ten-year itch. At that point, they couldn't separate fast enough. The chart below shows the same two series from the start of 2012 through the present. Now, when one goes up the other goes down and vice versa, as the paths are nearly exact opposites. In fact, in the nearly eight years since 2012, the correlation between the two is -0.90.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the chart below we have shown the two series over the entire time period spanning 2002 through 2019. The non-shaded area represents the period covered in the first chart, while the shaded area covers the second period. Right around the time where the shaded period starts is when the positive correlation turned on a dime, and beginning in 2013 when the curve started to flatten, investors who were still hanging on to the idea that a flatter yield curve was a green light for value stocks, saw what turned out to be an extended period of misery relative to the performance of growth stocks. In the words of Intel Founder Andy Grove, "Adapt or Die."
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Ratio

Below is a chart of the Nasdaq 100 going back to 1990. While it took 15+ years for the index to make a new all-time closing high following its March 2000 peak, the index is currently 65% above those March 2000 highs.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a ratio chart of the Nasdaq 100's price versus the S&P 500's price since 1990. The ratio started well below 1 in early 1990 but quickly overtook the S&P in price by the mid-90s. As you can see, the ratio spiked dramatically above 3 during the peak of the Dot Com bubble in late 1999. The Nasdaq 100 then gave up much of that outperformance versus the S&P 500 over a 2-3 year period where the ratio got all the way back down to 1, but since then it has been steadily trending higher to its current level of 2.65. While it went through a bubble and a burst over a 5-year period, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the S&P 500 for a long time now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 23rd, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 08.25.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $BBY
  • $MOMO
  • $OKTA
  • $DG
  • $VEEV
  • $ULTA
  • $OSIS
  • $BILI
  • $DLTR
  • $TIF
  • $NTNX
  • $ICLK
  • $ADSK
  • $SJM
  • $PLAN
  • $WDAY
  • $ANF
  • $DELL
  • $BURL
  • $FIVE
  • $BWAY
  • $JT
  • $MRVL
  • $BNS
  • $BMO
  • $HPE
  • $COTY
  • $TD
  • $ITRN
  • $HEI
  • $EXPR
  • $JILL
  • $WMWD
  • $MOGU
  • $CAL
  • $GES
  • $CPB
  • $BOX
  • $PVH
  • $BIG
  • $CHS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.26.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.26.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.27.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.27.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.28.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.28.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.29.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.29.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.30.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.30.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Best Buy Co., Inc. $66.21

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.99 per share on revenue of $9.57 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.95 to $1.00 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.79% with revenue increasing by 2.04%. Short interest has decreased by 10.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.6% above its 200 day moving average of $65.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,003 contracts of the $65.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Momo Inc. $31.83

Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 AM ET on Tuesday, August 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $581.18 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $579.00 million to $593.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.03% with revenue increasing by 17.58%. Short interest has increased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% below its 200 day moving average of $32.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,000 contracts of the $24.40 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Okta, Inc. $132.46

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 28, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $131.09 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.11 to $0.10 per share on revenue of $130.00 million to $131.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.33% with revenue increasing by 38.59%. Short interest has increased by 13.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% above its 200 day moving average of $95.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,949 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, August 30, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar General Corporation $136.99

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.58 per share on revenue of $6.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.95% with revenue increasing by 6.93%. Short interest has decreased by 28.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% above its 200 day moving average of $121.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 757 contracts of the $149.00 call expiring on Friday, September 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Veeva Systems Inc. $158.13

Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.49 per share on revenue of $259.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.48 to $0.49 per share on revenue of $259.00 million to $260.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue increasing by 23.69%. Short interest has decreased by 34.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.9% above its 200 day moving average of $128.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,273 contracts of the $155.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ULTA Beauty $322.10

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.79 per share on revenue of $1.68 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.80 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.41% with revenue increasing by 12.89%. Short interest has increased by 28.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.3% above its 200 day moving average of $318.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,211 contracts of the $330.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

OSI Systems Inc. $100.83

OSI Systems Inc. (OSIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 9:00 AM ET on Monday, August 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $303.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.94% with revenue increasing by 5.70%. Short interest has increased by 13.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $91.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bilibili Inc. $14.70

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 PM ET on Monday, August 26, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $212.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $217.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 200.00% with revenue increasing by 37.16%. The stock has drifted lower by 11.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.7% below its 200 day moving average of $16.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 23, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,011 contracts of the $12.50 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 20.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $95.16

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.72 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.64 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.52% with revenue increasing by 3.52%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.3% below its 200 day moving average of $98.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,596 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tiffany & Co. $81.32

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, August 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of up to $1.16 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.26% with revenue decreasing by 0.55%. Short interest has increased by 28.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% below its 200 day moving average of $93.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,129 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

My trades for the day

I received feedback from several of you who have followed my postings. I will continue to post just not as often unless specifically requested. My idea for trading such a large volume of both underlyings and DTE's is so no one position can sink my account. As to how I pick my trades I've answered this in prior posts but, will answer it again. The first thing I do is chart it. I look for an upward bias or lack thereof in the underlying, I avoid stocks that look to be heading in a downwards direction then I do research on the stock to see if there is anything I feel I should be leary of. I set up an order ticket and look at my return as a percentage of my total risk. I'm looking for at least 20% and in most cases more like 25-30% of total risk. I look to stay at least one strike or more away from the current price of the underlying depending on the price movement of the underlying after all of that if the option still looks good to me I sell a put spread, or possibly an iron condor although that's not something I do very often. I trade about 30-50 underlyings and out to about 3 sometimes 4 weeks mostly though I try for 10 days or less. It seems to me that the closer to expiration I trade the higher the percentage return mostly due to the more turns I generate but also the percentage in premium I get per trade. I like to trade a few movers, (AAPL, GOOG, SHOP, TSLA, CRM as examples) as they add a higher percentage return for the same risk not counting volatility. I look to allocate approximately the same amount per trade (both by underlying and time) each time taking into consideration the difference in the price of the underlying. I maintain a watchlist which I posted on here as requested to both track events and to keep track of stocks for future consideration if I feel like one of the ones I've been trading has gotten to a place I'm not comfortable with.
Right now I'm reducing the numbevalue of my trades outstanding as I'm a little nervous with the market behavior. I will still trade just a good bit less although subject to change at any time. I am looking for some new stocks ideas so will be perusing my watchlist going forward.
The trades you will see today were mostly closing trades as I decided to take some profits today and closed out about 20% of my trades outstanding for a profit or roughly $7400.00. It helps to offset the $9000 plus losses I closed out yesterday and leaves my up $97.79 for the week. My worst week in quite some time the reason is that I took losses going forward which should improve my margins going forward we will have to see if I'm right. I made a big mistake when I tried something different. I sold calls spreads on my losers trying to reduce my loss instead I increased my vulnerability to 2 directions and naturally the stocks moved up into the calls so I lost anyway. I still have to digest all of the info I have to see exactly where I goofed one of the disadvantages of trading the way I do is there is a lot of information to digest and learn from.
Action QTY Symbol Price AVG Exe Price
SELL CLOSE 5 AMGN Jan 10 '20 $235 Put 0.03 0.01 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 5 AMGN Jan 10 '20 $237.50 Put 0.03 0.04 5 Debit
BUY OPEN 5 AMGN Jan 17 '20 $235 Put 0.73 1.36 5 Credit
SELL OPEN 5 AMGN Jan 17 '20 $237.50 Put 0.73 2.09 5 Credit
SELL CLOSE 20 AXP Jan 17 '20 $122 Put 0.04 0.08 20 Debit
BUY CLOSE 20 AXP Jan 17 '20 $123 Put 0.04 0.12 20 Debit
SELL CLOSE 10 BMY Jan 17 '20 $61.50 Put 0.03 0.08 10 Debit
BUY CLOSE 10 BMY Jan 17 '20 $62 Put 0.03 0.11 10 Debit
SELL CLOSE 5 COST Jan 17 '20 $280 Put 0.03 0.06 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 5 COST Jan 17 '20 $282.50 Put 0.03 0.09 5 Debit
SELL CLOSE 5 COST Jan 17 '20 $285 Put 0.06 0.11 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 5 COST Jan 17 '20 $287.50 Put 0.06 0.17 5 Debit
SELL CLOSE 5 COST Jan 24 '20 $285 Put 0.15 0.23 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 5 COST Jan 24 '20 $287.50 Put 0.15 0.38 5 Debit
BUY OPEN 10 COST Jan 24 '20 $292.50 Put 0.75 1.35 10 Credit
SELL OPEN 10 COST Jan 24 '20 $295 Put 0.75 2.1 10 Credit
SELL CLOSE 7 CRM Jan 17 '20 $160 Put 0.02 0.03 7 Debit
BUY CLOSE 7 CRM Jan 17 '20 $162.50 Put 0.02 0.05 7 Debit
BUY CLOSE 20 CVS Jan 10 '20 $74 Call 0.02 0.01 20 Limit
SELL CLOSE 30 DIS Jan 10 '20 $143 Put 0.02 0.02 30 Debit
BUY CLOSE 30 DIS Jan 10 '20 $144 Put 0.02 0.04 30 Debit
BUY OPEN 10 DIS Jan 24 '20 $142 Put 0.3 0.84 10 Credit
SELL OPEN 10 DIS Jan 24 '20 $143 Put 0.3 1.14 10 Credit
SELL CLOSE 10 FB Jan 17 '20 $200 Put 0.03 0.08 10 Debit
BUY CLOSE 10 FB Jan 17 '20 $202.50 Put 0.03 0.11 10 Debit
SELL CLOSE 10 FB Jan 24 '20 $197.50 Put 0.05 0.16 10 Debit
BUY CLOSE 10 FB Jan 24 '20 $200 Put 0.05 0.21 10 Debit
SELL CLOSE 1 GRUB Jan 17 '20 $50 Put 0.95 0.97 1 Limit
SELL CLOSE 5 HD Jan 24 '20 $210 Put 0.09 0.15 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 5 HD Jan 24 '20 $212.50 Put 0.09 0.24 5 Debit
SELL CLOSE 20 JNJ Jan 10 '20 $143 Put 0.04 0.0525 20 Debit
BUY CLOSE 20 JNJ Jan 10 '20 $144 Put 0.04 0.0925 20 Debit
BUY CLOSE 8 JNJ Jan 17 '20 $145 Call 0.53 1.45 8 Debit
SELL CLOSE 8 JNJ Jan 17 '20 $146 Call 0.53 0.92 8 Debit
SELL CLOSE 10 MA Jan 17 '20 $292.50 Put 0.06 0.18 10 Debit
BUY CLOSE 10 MA Jan 17 '20 $295 Put 0.06 0.23 10 Debit
BUY OPEN 20 MET Jan 24 '20 $51.50 Put 0.15 0.35 20 Credit
SELL OPEN 20 MET Jan 24 '20 $52 Put 0.15 0.5 20 Credit
SELL CLOSE 15 MSFT Jan 17 '20 $152.50 Put 0.05 0.09 15 Debit
BUY CLOSE 15 MSFT Jan 17 '20 $155 Put 0.05 0.14 15 Debit
SELL OPEN 10 NKE Jan 17 '20 $100 Put 0.12 0.55 10 Credit
BUY OPEN 10 NKE Jan 17 '20 $99.50 Put 0.12 0.43 10 Credit
BUY CLOSE 10 PG Jan 10 '20 $122 Put 0.01 0.01 10 Limit
BUY CLOSE 5 SHOP Jan 10 '20 $395 Put 0.05 0.05 5 Limit
SELL CLOSE 5 SHOP Jan 17 '20 $382.50 Put 0.1 0.34 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 5 SHOP Jan 17 '20 $385 Put 0.1 0.43 5 Debit
BUY CLOSE 10 TGT Jan 17 '20 $125 Call 0.52 3.33 10 Debit
SELL CLOSE 10 TGT Jan 17 '20 $126 Call 0.52 2.81 10 Debit
submitted by keepitsimple456 to options [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 26th, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 26th, 2019.

Week ahead: Stocks could be rocky on trade, economy fears, as August breaks low volatility streak - (Source)

The final week of August — the bittersweet end of summer for many— could be highly volatile, as markets fret over the economy and the latest developments in trade wars.
President Donald Trump joins the G-7 leaders in France over the weekend, and markets will be watching to see if the meeting exposes new fault lines in the shaky relations among a once fairly congenial leadership group that fought the Great Recession together. Trump is expected to discuss the U.S. economy and highlight the U.S. pro-jobs, pro-growth agenda, under his leadership.
The U.S. trade war with China escalated sharply in the past week, with a new round of tariffs from China on U.S. goods announced Friday and new threats from Trump, who “ordered” American companies to find alternatives to China. That immediately triggered speculation that the trade war will be extended and more contentious, and the U.S. economy risks falling into recession.
After the close Friday, Trump retaliated against China’s tariffs by raising existing tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% from 25%, as of Oct. 1. In a tweet, he also said he was raising new tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods that have not yet gone into effect to 15% from 10%.
Friday’s trading was volatile, and stocks fell by about 2.5%, erasing what would have been a second positive week for the market. Treasury yields, which move opposite price, continued to go lower amid worries about the economy and fears the Fed will not act aggressively enough to head off a recession.
Stocks have been volatile, and the S&P 500 is down about 4.5% in the month of August.
Michael Arone, State Street Advisors chief investment strategist said the first seven months of the year were more certain for investors in terms of their expectations for Fed rate cuts and a possible trade deal. But the trade tensions have worsened, and the trade war could escalate even further.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole Friday morning, but while he left the door open for rate cuts, he did not explicitly promise rate cuts.
“The Fed has become a lot less certain. Until we get more clarity, you’re likely to see this volatility, and stocks will trade sideways,” Arone said. Even though corporate earnings weakened, “investors took a big leap of faith in the first seven months of the year, expecting both a trade deal and monetary policy easing.”
The escalation of the trade war makes a deal unlikely anytime soon. This, however, did drive market expectations for rate cuts higher Friday afternoon, and the market was expecting three more cuts this year.
Trump tied his feuds with China and the Fed together Friday, when he tweeted that the Fed is not helping with easier rate policy, along with a question about “who is the bigger enemy” — China President Xi Jinping or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
“I think the Fed is in uncharted territory, and I continue to have empathy for Chairman Powell. I think markets want faster and more aggressive policy. He’s dealing with challenges the Fed has never had,” said Arone.
”[Powell] is literally walking a tight rope. He has the president who is daily bashing him,” he said. “Bond markets are demanding a much greater number of rate cuts, and he’s got geopolitical challenges, whether it’s Brexit or trade. He’s also got dissension among Fed voting members. That’s a lot to balance.”
There is some important data in the coming week, including durable goods Monday and personal spending and consumption data Friday, which also includes the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator.
“The data will give us some indications on business spending. Durable goods has capital expenditure orders. It looks look consumer confidence will come out [Tuesday] as well,” Arone said. Business spending has been taking a hit from the trade wars, and economists are concerned it will continue to weaken, ultimately leading to weakness in the consumer economy.
The week ahead could see some swings ahead of the long Labor Day Holiday weekend. “Given high absentees and low volumes, my guess is it’s going to add to volatility,” said Arone.
Frank Cappelleri, Nomura executive director, said he also expects volatility, and the S&P could test the outer limits of its recent range.
Of the 17 trading days this month, nine of them saw absolute 1% moves in the S&P 500. The last time that occurred was in December, when there were 10 days with 1% moves, according to Cappelleri. The most in one month was February, 2018 when there were 12. Contrast that to the entire year of 2017, when there were just eight.
Friday’s action was volatile, and the S&P 500 was down as much as 3%.
“This is the third-biggest decline we’ve had this month. Each of them started within 10 points of each other, near the top of the range,” said Cappelleri. The top of the range is 2,943, its Aug. 13 high, and the bottom is 2,820, near the Aug. 5 low.
“We’re obviously still in a trading range that has been characterized by sharp moves and acute turns, so I think when we had that initial drop on Aug. 5, the question is where is it going to stop,” he said, adding traders are watching that Aug. 5 level to see if it will act as a floor.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())
(NONE SCHEDULED FOR THIS WEEK.)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Second Half August Trading: Historically Weak Too

Following three straight days of gains, the market has recovered a sizable portion of its losses from earlier in the month. Losses earlier in the month and gains over the past three days (prior to today) have tracked August’s typical trading pattern for over the last 21-years quite closely. The magnitude of the moves this year has been larger than average, but the pattern has been tracked.
Due to the magnitude of this year’s moves, August’s performance over the past 21-years has been plotted on the left vertical axis in the chart above and 2019 is plotted on the right. From right around mid-month or now through the end of August, the historical trend has been weaker. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have all averaged a loss in August from 1998 to 2018 and they are on track to repeat this year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Is a Small-Cap Labor Day Rally Coming Soon

In the below chart, forty years of daily data for the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies are divided by the Russell 1000 index of largest companies, and then compressed into a single year to show an idealized yearly pattern. When the graph is descending, large-cap companies are outperforming small-cap companies; when the graph is rising, smaller companies are moving up faster than their larger brethren. The most prominent period of outperformance generally begins in mid-December and lasts until late-February or early March with a surge in January. This period of outperformance by small-caps is known as the “January Effect” in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In recent years, another sizable move is quite evident just before Labor Day. One possible explanation for this move is individual investors begin to return to work after summertime vacations and are searching for “bargain” stocks. In a typical year, small-caps would have been lagging and could represent an opportunity relative to other large-cap possibilities. As of Friday’s close (August 16, 2019), Russell 2000 is up 10.8% compared to the Russell 1000 being up 15.5% year-to-date. Lagging small-caps and resilient U.S. consumers could be the ideal setup for a repeat of this pattern this year. However, the small-cap advantage does historically wane around mid-September.

September Almanac: No Respite in Pre-Election Years

The start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. September gets no respite from positive pre-election year forces.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although the month used to open strong, S&P 500 has declined eight times in the last eleven years on the first trading day. As tans begin to fade and the new school year begins, fund managers tend to sell underperforming positions as the end of the third quarter approaches, causing some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (DJIA: –11.1%), 2002 (DJIA –12.4%), the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (DJIA: –6.0%) and U.S. debt ceiling debacle in 2011 (DJIA –6.0%). However, September is improving with S&P 500 advancing in ten of the last 15 Septembers and DJIA climbing in nine.

Leading Indicators Signal Growth Ahead

U.S. leading indicators rebounded in July, a good sign for the durability of the expansion.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% month over month, the biggest gain since September 2018, and above consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Leading Indicators Slowing But Growing, the LEI climbed 1.6% year over year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The LEI, which we include as one of the “Five Forecasters” of our Recession Watch Dashboard, has yet to turn negative this cycle. The index has fallen negative year over year before all nine recessions since 1955.
“Some investors have pointed out slowing LEI growth as a reason for caution,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “However, the LEI is signaling moderate U.S. economic growth ahead, with no signs of an imminent recession.”
The LEI is calculated from 10 individual leading data sets, including weekly jobless claims, building permits, and stock prices. This year, the majority of LEI components have boosted month-over-month growth in the index, but more internationally exposed data sets have turned into net drags.
In July, 6 of 10 components rose month over month, but four components—average hours worked, manufacturers’ new orders, new orders for nondefense capital spending, and interest rate spreads—fell month over month. Historically, breadth in LEI components has deteriorated further before a recession began. In contrast, at the end of each of the past six economic cycles, more than half of the LEI components were in decline.
While evidence of slowing growth in leading indicators is disappointing, we are encouraged by what we see outside of manufacturing. Global manufacturing has been the sector hardest hit by prolonged trade tensions and weakened demand, and we don’t expect to see much improvement until a U.S.-China trade resolution is reached. Even then, a recovery in manufacturing may take some time.

Crude Oil's Descending Triangle

Earlier this week, crude oil was trading well over 2% higher than last Friday's close. Over the past few sessions, though, oil has given up all of those gains. The catalyst for today's declines are the Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US crude which are expected to dampen demand. This week's negative reversal comes as the commodity ran into multiple points of resistance. For starters, the rally began to stall out mid-week when it met the converging 200 and 50-day moving averages. This also coincided with a downtrend that traces itself all the way back to the highs from late last year. In fact, crude is down around 30% from these previous highs.
Overall, the technical picture for crude oil is not in a great place as the chart is forming a descending triangle pattern. Despite the big gains at the beginning of 2019, over the past few months, crude has been making consistent lower highs and lower lows. Given this most recent failure to retake the moving averages and break out of the downtrend, the next major support level to watch is around $50 which is a level that has held up at multiple times in the past few months. This support also draws back to late last year prior to the collapse in December.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yield Curves: Another Record Streak Bites the Dust

After the 3-month vs 10-year US Treasury yield curve first inverted earlier this year, the market has shifted its focus to the 2-year vs 10-year part of the curve which had yet to reach inverted levels. That was, until yesterday. While the 10s2s curve flirted with inverted territory for the last few days on an intraday basis, Thursday was the first time in more than a decade that the closing yield on the two-year US Treasury was above the yield on the 10-year. And with another closely watched part of the curve moving into inverted levels, recession fears increased.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As the chart above illustrates, it has been a while since the 10s2s curve was inverted. In fact, the streak that just ended was the longest on record going back to 1977, and it wasn't even close. Going back to 1977, there have only been three prior streaks where the 10s2s curve was inverted for more than 1,000 days, and never before had the curve been positively sloped for more than 2,000 days. The current streak, though? 3,054 days. It was fun while it lasted!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adapt or Die

A common characteristic of most investors and traders is to always be on the lookout for patterns and connections between various asset classes. Whenever one correlated asset confirms the move in another it adds a layer of confidence to an investor's thesis. One long-held example is the Dow Transports as a leading or coincident indicator for the broader market. For decades now, many investors have followed the transports for confirmation of the broader market moves. If the transports — which move all of the physical goods in the economy — rally, it suggests that the broader market will be strong, while periods when the transports start to roll over are read as a signal that there's an underlying weakness in the economy.
As the US economy has become more service and digital-oriented in nature, there has been a valid argument made that the transports have lost some of their importance as an indicator of the broader economy. Along these lines, we have suggested that rather than transports, semiconductors may represent this century's 'transports' as they are a part of just about everything in this digital age. Whether you agree with this or not isn't important, but the important takeaway is that just because two asset classes have been highly correlated in the past doesn't mean that they will remain that way in the future. It's one thing to recognize a correlation between two asset classes, but it's much more important to understand why they are correlated and be on the lookout for factors that may change the status quo in the future.
One example of a radical change in a relationship between two asset classes is the interaction between the relative strength of growth and value stocks versus the slope of the yield curve. From 2002 through 2011, the two were closely correlated. As the curve flattened in the early part of this century, growth stocks underperformed value by a wide margin (falling blue line). Then in mid-2007, as the curve steepened and came out from inverted territory, growth stocks started to rip higher relative to value. Beginning in 2009, though, the curve stopped steepening and the relative strength of growth relative to value stalled out. The two series were so closely joined at the hip during this ten-year stretch that the correlation coefficient between the two was +0.82, which is indicative of two series moving in lockstep with each other.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
If the paths of the yield curve and the relative strength of growth versus value couldn't be separated from 2002 through 2011, the relationship soured in 2012 when the two came down with a case of the ten-year itch. At that point, they couldn't separate fast enough. The chart below shows the same two series from the start of 2012 through the present. Now, when one goes up the other goes down and vice versa, as the paths are nearly exact opposites. In fact, in the nearly eight years since 2012, the correlation between the two is -0.90.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the chart below we have shown the two series over the entire time period spanning 2002 through 2019. The non-shaded area represents the period covered in the first chart, while the shaded area covers the second period. Right around the time where the shaded period starts is when the positive correlation turned on a dime, and beginning in 2013 when the curve started to flatten, investors who were still hanging on to the idea that a flatter yield curve was a green light for value stocks, saw what turned out to be an extended period of misery relative to the performance of growth stocks. In the words of Intel Founder Andy Grove, "Adapt or Die."
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Ratio

Below is a chart of the Nasdaq 100 going back to 1990. While it took 15+ years for the index to make a new all-time closing high following its March 2000 peak, the index is currently 65% above those March 2000 highs.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a ratio chart of the Nasdaq 100's price versus the S&P 500's price since 1990. The ratio started well below 1 in early 1990 but quickly overtook the S&P in price by the mid-90s. As you can see, the ratio spiked dramatically above 3 during the peak of the Dot Com bubble in late 1999. The Nasdaq 100 then gave up much of that outperformance versus the S&P 500 over a 2-3 year period where the ratio got all the way back down to 1, but since then it has been steadily trending higher to its current level of 2.65. While it went through a bubble and a burst over a 5-year period, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the S&P 500 for a long time now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 23rd, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 08.25.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $BBY
  • $MOMO
  • $OKTA
  • $DG
  • $VEEV
  • $ULTA
  • $OSIS
  • $BILI
  • $DLTR
  • $TIF
  • $NTNX
  • $ICLK
  • $ADSK
  • $SJM
  • $PLAN
  • $WDAY
  • $ANF
  • $DELL
  • $BURL
  • $FIVE
  • $BWAY
  • $JT
  • $MRVL
  • $BNS
  • $BMO
  • $HPE
  • $COTY
  • $TD
  • $ITRN
  • $HEI
  • $EXPR
  • $JILL
  • $WMWD
  • $MOGU
  • $CAL
  • $GES
  • $CPB
  • $BOX
  • $PVH
  • $BIG
  • $CHS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.26.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.26.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.27.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.27.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.28.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.28.19 After Market Close:

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Thursday 8.29.19 Before Market Open:

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Thursday 8.29.19 After Market Close:

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Friday 8.30.19 Before Market Open:

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Friday 8.30.19 After Market Close:

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NONE.

Best Buy Co., Inc. $66.21

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.99 per share on revenue of $9.57 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.95 to $1.00 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.79% with revenue increasing by 2.04%. Short interest has decreased by 10.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.6% above its 200 day moving average of $65.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,003 contracts of the $65.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Momo Inc. $31.83

Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 AM ET on Tuesday, August 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $581.18 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $579.00 million to $593.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.03% with revenue increasing by 17.58%. Short interest has increased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% below its 200 day moving average of $32.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,000 contracts of the $24.40 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.

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Okta, Inc. $132.46

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 28, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $131.09 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.11 to $0.10 per share on revenue of $130.00 million to $131.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.33% with revenue increasing by 38.59%. Short interest has increased by 13.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% above its 200 day moving average of $95.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,949 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, August 30, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters.

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Dollar General Corporation $136.99

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.58 per share on revenue of $6.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.95% with revenue increasing by 6.93%. Short interest has decreased by 28.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% above its 200 day moving average of $121.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 757 contracts of the $149.00 call expiring on Friday, September 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Veeva Systems Inc. $158.13

Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 27, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.49 per share on revenue of $259.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.48 to $0.49 per share on revenue of $259.00 million to $260.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue increasing by 23.69%. Short interest has decreased by 34.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.9% above its 200 day moving average of $128.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,273 contracts of the $155.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

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ULTA Beauty $322.10

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.79 per share on revenue of $1.68 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.80 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.41% with revenue increasing by 12.89%. Short interest has increased by 28.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.3% above its 200 day moving average of $318.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,211 contracts of the $330.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

OSI Systems Inc. $100.83

OSI Systems Inc. (OSIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 9:00 AM ET on Monday, August 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $303.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.94% with revenue increasing by 5.70%. Short interest has increased by 13.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $91.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bilibili Inc. $14.70

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 PM ET on Monday, August 26, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $212.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $217.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 200.00% with revenue increasing by 37.16%. The stock has drifted lower by 11.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.7% below its 200 day moving average of $16.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 23, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,011 contracts of the $12.50 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 20.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $95.16

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, August 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $5.72 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.64 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.52% with revenue increasing by 3.52%. Short interest has decreased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.3% below its 200 day moving average of $98.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,596 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tiffany & Co. $81.32

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Wednesday, August 28, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $1.07 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of up to $1.16 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.26% with revenue decreasing by 0.55%. Short interest has increased by 28.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% below its 200 day moving average of $93.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,129 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Options market 10/16/19

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research
Today’s Bullish Activity
Leading the point gainers list this morning is Tech Data Corp. (TECD + $13.15 to $124.49) on a report that the IT equipment distributor received a $5B (or $130/share) buyout offer from private equity firm Apollo Global Management LLC. However, there is no certainty that any deal will occur or that Tech Data will engage in negotiations, according to sources close to the matter. Calls are outnumbering puts better than 3:1 with the November 15th 115.00 call being the most actively traded contract (volume is 206).
Multiple high-profile names are moving higher following upbeat earnings announcements:
New 52-week highs (53 new highs today): Arconic Inc. (ARNC - $0.14 to $27.72), Celgene Corp. (CELG + $0.18 to $101.13), Deere & Company (DE + $0.83 to $173.47), Lennar Corp. (LEN + $0.77 to $60.50), Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW + $4.83 to $563.72)
Notable Call Activity
Shares of Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH + $1.68 to $49.58) are trading higher on a Wall Street Journal report that it, along with McKesson and Amerisourcebergen, are in talks with state and local governments to settle thousands of opioid lawsuits for $18B and option traders are taking note. CAH calls are outpacing puts 10:1 with all of the top 10 most actively traded contracts being calls. The most actively traded contract is the October 18th 50.00 call as volume is 3,003 versus open interest of 450, so we know that this primarily represents new positioning. The activity on this contract mostly consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought at various prices, including a 1,347 block that was bought for $0.90 when the bid/ask spread was $0.60 x $1.25, which suggests bullish intent.
Also seeing some heavy call activity (~7:1 over puts) is Morgan Stanley Inc. (MS + $0.32 to $42.85) as option traders primarily target the June 2020 57.50 call. Volume on this contract is 29,854 (vs. open interest of 203) which mostly consisted of a two 13.43K blocks that were bought (around the same time) at the ask price of $0.25. We know these blocks are new positions given the open interest figure and we can assume the intent is bullish in nature since the trades took place at the ask price. The positioning comes ahead of the company’s Q3 earnings report which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning.
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc. (AJRD + $1.26 to $48.95): Call volume is dominating (~100:1 over puts) which is primarily being driven by activity on the November 15th 55.00 call. Volume on this contract is 9,131 (vs. open interest of 208) which mostly consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought for between $0.60-0.70 each (suggesting bullish intent).
Today’s Bearish Activity
Falling to a 10-month low this morning is Workday Inc. (WDAY - $22.06 to $158.90) following the company’s Analyst Day, which revealed moderating subscription growth, and multiple brokerage price targets cut. RBC said that Workday’s subscription growth is dropping to the mid 20%’s from 30% as the company penetrates large accounts and lowered their price target to $212.00 from $225.00 while Stifel cut their price target to $180.00 from $210.00. WDAY average implied volatility is up to 41% from yesterday’s 33% closing level. Calls are outnumbering puts roughly 4:3 with the October 18th 162.50 call leading the way (volume is 2,607). Note: the average implied volatility represents an estimated value for a 30-day implied volatility at the current underlying price, based on a curve fit of option implied volatilities.
Other cloud-related stocks following WDAY lower include:
Also trading to the downside is ASML Holdings N.V. (ASML - $7.22 to $260.32) after the semiconductor equipment maker reported Q3 earnings of €1.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items (€0.04 beat) on revenue that increased 7.6% year-over-year to €2.99B (below the €3.03B expected) as gross margins came in at 43.7% (vs. guidance of 43-44%). In terms of guidance, the company said it expects Q4 revenue to be ~€3.9B, which is below the €3.93B consensus estimate. Puts are slightly outnumbering calls with the October 18th 260.00 put leading the way (volume is 339).
New 52-week lows (44 new lows today): ICU Medical Inc. (ICUI + $2.28 to $154.67), National Presto Industries Inc. (NPK + $0.84 to $83.19), Shotspotter Inc. (SSTI - $0.65 to $18.90)
Notable Put Activity
Some unusual put activity (~21:1 over calls) is being seen in Coty Inc. (COTY - $0.02 to $10.36) which is primarily being driven by activity on the November 15th 11.00 put. Volume on this contract is 5,077 (vs. open interest of 4,389), which mostly consisted of a 4,607 block that was bought for $1.09 when the bid/ask spread was $1.04 x $1.10. We know this block is a new position given the open interest figure and we can assume the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread. Note: COTY is scheduled to report fiscal Q1 earnings on November 6th before the market open.
Baker Hughes Co. (BHGE - $0.03 to $22.27): Puts are outpacing calls roughly 80:1 which is predominately due to a couple of large blocks that traded on the November 19.00 put (volume is 4,605 vs. open interest of 40) – a 1,720 block was bought at the ask price of $0.15 and (around the same time a 2,580 block traded for $0.10, directly in the middle of the $0.05 x $0.15 bid/ask spread.
Volume Signals
Floor & Décor Holdings Inc. (FND - $0.32 to $46.50): Option volume is running at roughly 30x the daily average of 214 contracts which is primarily being driven by a 4,741 block that was bought on the November 15th 50.00 put at the ask price of $5.30 (open interest is 120). We know this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume that the block trader believes that FND will close below the break-even price of $44.70 at expiration. Note: FND is scheduled to report Q3 earnings on November 1st before the market open.
Michaels Companies Inc. (MIK + $0.09 to $9.67): Option volume is running at roughly 14x the daily average of 1,382 contracts which is primarily being driven by activity on the November 15th 12.50 call. Volume on this contract is 12,723 (vs. open interest of 125) which mostly consisted of an 8K block that was bought at the ask price of $0.20. We know this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume that the intent is bullish in nature since the trade took place at the ask price.
Gauging Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX + 0.43 to 13.97) has been in the green day all day today (intraday range is 13.60-14.26) as equity markets are in negative territory around the mid-day mark today (DJI - 16, SPX - 7, COMPX - 32). VIX option volume has been average today at 250,013 contracts (currently #6 on the top 10 most actives list) and the activity has been call-biased (the volume put/call ratio is currently 0.65). The most actively traded contract is the November 20th 20.00 call as volume is 39,545 versus open interest of 70,270.
submitted by TodayInTheMahket to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

(Quite a Bit More Than) Quarter-Way Through the Season Prospect Update

Guillaume Brisebois (D 66th overall 2015)
Height: 6’3 Weight: 190 Hometown: St. Hilaire, QC
Age: 22
GP G A Pts
27 3 8 11
Now in his third professional season, Guillaume Brisebois has established himself as a solid AHL defenseman. The St. Hilaire native saw his first NHL action last season where he played eight games scoring no points. In Utica this season, Brisebois has been one of the Comets most consistent blueliners this season and he has matched last year’s point totals already just 27 games in. Due to injury Brisebois has been something of a frequent flyer this season coming up and down between Utica and Vancouver although he has not made an appearance for the Canucks so far this season. Brisebois has cemented himself this season as an NHL depth defenseman and one of the first guy’s on the call sheet when a d-man is needed. Brisebois certainly has the potential to be even more than this as well.
Michael DiPietro (G 64th overall 2017)
Height: 6’0 Weight: 200 Hometown: Amherstburg, ON
Age: 20
GP W L OTL SV% GAA
14 8 4 1 0.910 2.56
It was an interesting season for Michael DiPietro last year. After guiding his hometown Windsor Spitfires to a Memorial Cup he was traded to the Ottawa 67s where he put up spectacular numbers for a team that went deep into the playoffs. DiPietro represented Canada at the World Juniors where he was arguably the best player for a squad that deeply disappointed at home. He also infamously got a very premature first NHL start last season in a 7-2 drubbing against the San Jose Sharks where he looked like a fish out of water. Given all the highs and lows of last season, it would be understandable to come into his first professional season with some subdued expectations. It was even more compounded by the fact that the Canucks had signed veteran keeper Zane McIntyre over the summer, bringing the number of non-NHL goalies under contract to four. Some people, myself included had estimated that DiPietro might see himself starting in the ECHL with the Kalamazoo Wings given that he was going to be stuck behind Richard Bachman as well as the aforementioned McIntryre, but DiPietro earned his way onto the Comets roster and he hasn’t looked back ever since. DiPietro has more or less split starts so far this season with McIntryre and statistically he has been the better goalie. DiPietro is top three amongst all rookies in both save percentage and goals against average. The early returns on DiPietro have been nothing short of remarkable and while there are still some major questions about his size, if he continues on this path it would seem that the Canucks have found yet another solid goaltender. DiPietro got another call-up recently with the injury to Thatcher Demko and thus far has only played eight minutes, in relief of Jacob Markstrom in a game against Vegas wherein he allowed 1 goal on eight shots. It will be interesting to see if DiPietro gets a start during this stretch, Demko is still out with no timeline to return but I think it is interesting that the team could have called up either Richard Bachman or Zane McIntryte both of whom have much more NHL experience than DiPietro but the team chose DiPietro.
Jalen Chatfield (D Undrafted, Signed 2017)
Height: 6’0 Weight: 188 Hometown: Ypsilanti, MI
Age: 23
GP G A Pts
20 0 1 1
Jalen Chatfield continues to be a defensive presence for the Comets. The Michigan native has never had much offensive acumen but he continues to remain high on the Canucks depth chart as evidenced by the fact that he has been called up multiple times so far this season to serve as the extra d-man. Chatfield has yet to actually play in an NHL game but he has been called up a couple of times over the past few years. Chatfield has played the most games without a point for the Comets although given his game is that of a shutdown defenseman this is not surprising. I think it’s fair to say that Chatfield will never reach the heights that some had projecting for him when he almost made the Canucks out of training camp as a rookie a few years back but he continues to be an intriguing option in the Canucks defensive cupboard.
Mitch Eliot (D Undrafted, signed 2018)
Height: 6’0 Weight: 170 Hometown: Grosse Pointe, MI
Age: 21 With Kalamazoo Wings (ECHL):
GP G A Pts
3 0 0 0
With Utica Comets (AHL):
GP G A Pts
13 2 3 5
It’s been a slow burn of a pro start for young Mitch Eliot. Signed as an overager out of the OHL last season Eliot found himself crowded out of the Comets blueline to start the year and thus he was relegated down to Kalamazoo. It has been a few years since the Canucks have had any prospects under contract in the ECHL, although I do think it’s ultimately not a negative thing as it speaks to the depth of the team now. Eliot played just three games for the Wings before he was called back up to the Comets and he hasn’t looked back since. Eliot has scored 5 points so far in 13 games. Eliot had an interesting story leading up to his signing with the Canucks: the son of a former NHL goalie, Eliot started at Michigan State University but he left during his sophomore year to join the Sarnia Sting of the OHL because he felt he wasn’t getting the opportunity in the NCAA. This decision clearly worked out as Eliot was signed to a contract and is now playing professional hockey. Eliot had a decent showing during the pre-season, and it will be interesting to see how his season progresses.
Jonah Gadjovich (LW 55th overall 2017)
Height: 6’2 Weight: 209 Hometown: Whitby, ON
Age: 21
GP G A Pts
15 6 1 7
Everyone knows that last season was a disappointing one for Jonah Gadjovich as the big winger struggled quite a bit adapting to the pro game. Coming into year two with the Comets I had hoped that Gadjovich would come into the season with a chip on his shoulder ready to prove that he could play and so far this season it looks like he has. Gadjovich was always a goalscorer in the OHL and this side of his game has began to show up again as the big winger has scored 6 goals so far this season and he is well on his way to smashing his previous season’s points total Gadjovich missed a chunk of the early season with an upper body injury but it doesn’t seem like his injury has affected too much of his game as he has scored five goals since coming back.
Lukas Jasek (RW 174th overall 2015)
Height: 6’00 Weight: 165 Hometown: Trinec, Czech Republic
Age: 22
GP G A Pts
28 7 5 12
In Jasek’s second full season he has struggled to score at the same rate as he did in his first one. Jasek famously joined the Comets at the tail end of the 2017-18 season after leaving his native Czech Republic and scored up a storm when he first came to North America. In this season, Trent Cull and the coaching staff made the decision to try and convert Jasek into a centreman from his natural right wing. This move has had thoroughly mixed results, Jasek has always been a strong defensive player and so it does make sense to want his defensive game down the middle but he doesn’t have the offensive ability to drive a line and thus his point totals have sagged this year. Jasek’s ceiling in terms of offense has always been pretty limited but his play away from the puck is intriguing and he could potentially be a cheap bottom six replacement if the Canucks decide/are able to shed some of the big contracts they have back there. Overall while it is never great to see a player’s production drop off, Jasek has already exceeded expectations given his draft position
Olli Juolevi (D 5th overall 2016)
Height: 6’3 Weight: 198 Hometown: Helsinki, Finland
Age: 21
GP G A Pts
21 0 8 8
It has been another year of frustration for Olli Juolevi as the former 5th overall pick has struggled to stay healthy yet again. After missing almost all of last season with a knee injury, Juolevi came into this season with one goal, to remain healthy and play good minutes for the Comets. He was doing this when the season first began, he was being used in all situations and by all accounts he was playing pretty great, but then he went down with another lower body injury and many people were concerned it was his knee. There was no timeline given when he was first injured which made many including myself fear the absolute worst but thankfully he only missed eight games and has returned to the ice for the Comets. The Finnish defender has yet to find the back of the net this year, but he has put up eight assists and has been playing in all situations. I think it is pretty clear that Juolevi will likely never live up to his 5th overall billing, but the talent is still there for him even if it seems like the luck really isn’t. Juolevi was drafted the same year I started to do this prospect analyses so I will always root for the kid, and I certainly hope he can get his career and his development back on track after the injuries he faced overt the last two years.
Kole Lind (C/RW 33rd overall 2017)
Height: 6’1 Weight: 185 Hometown: Shaunavon, SK
Age: 21
GP G A Pts
29 8 16 24
Another player who had a rough go of things in his early season career was Kole Lind. Lind like his fellow 2017 2nd rounder Gadjovich came to Utica with high expectations after a very successful junior career but ultimately failed to live up to expectations. Lind had a lot to prove coming into this season and so far he’s shown a tonne of improvement. Not only has his scoring touch seemingly returned (he’s already surpassed his previous season’s best) but he’s playing again with his textbook snarl again. When Lind is playing at his best, he’s a nasty player who is no fun to play against and he’s definitely been getting under some skin with his play this season. Lind is also one of only two players to suit up in every game for the Comets this year, which is impressive too considering the fact that Lind was often healthy scratched much to the chagrin of Canucks fans everywhere who wanted to see the rookie be played a lot more than he was getting previously, and this season it looks like they got their wish and also Trent Cull clearly trusts Lind a lot more than he did last year. The potential for Lind is still sky high and if he can keep playing engaged like he has been he should be back on track.
Zack MacEwen (RW Undrafted, Signed 2017)
Height: 6’4 Weight: 212 Hometown: Charlottetown, PE
Age: 23
With Utica
GP G A Pts
15 4 6 10
With Vancouver
GP G A Pts
8 1 1 2
The clear cut Comets MVP in terms of prospects last season, Zack MacEwen had nothing short of a breakout last year. The underdrafted winger entered the team without much fanfare but has cemented himself as not only one of the most NHL ready prospects in the Canucks system, but also one of the best. In Utica this year, MacEwen’s point totals have dipped a bit but he has made up for it with a soldi stint in the NHL wherein he would play in the NHL and score his first NHL goal. MacEwen spent a large chunk of the early season up with the Canucks due to numerous injures to the big club and he finally got his opportunity this year after a small stint in with the Canucks last year. MacEwen does look like a potential bottom six forward for the future, and again since he cost nothing but a roster spot and a bit of cap space MacEwen does look like yet another undrafted find for the scouting staff
Francis Perron (LW 190th overall 2014, Acquired 2019)
Height: 6’0 Weight: 165 Hometown: Laval, QC
Age: 23
GP G A Pts
26 5 12 17
One of the Canucks newest prospects Francis Perron was acquired over the summer in a draft day trade with the San Jose Sharks although given that this move was overshadowed by the JT Miller trade that same day you would be forgiven if you missed it. Perron, originally a seventh round pick by the Ottawa Senators is something of a late bloomer and after a few productive seasons in the QMJHL he was signed by the Senators where he spent two seasons in their American League system before being dealt to the Sharks as a piece in the Erik Karlsson trade. It was in the Sharks system where the Quebec native really took off, scoring 47 points in 63 games which was good for second in scoring on the San Jose Barracuda. So coming into the Canucks system there was a little bit of excitement about Perron but we sadly didn’t get to see much from him in training camp before he was cut, clearing waivers to play down in Utica. In Utica he certainly hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t quite replicated the pace at which he scored while in San Jose’s system. This might be the last year Perron will be considered a legitimate “prospect” by many NHL teams so there is certainly extra pressure on him to perform especially considering he now needs waivers to be sent down to the minors.
Brogan Rafferty (D Undrafted, signed 2019)
Height: 6’2 Weight: 192 Hometown: Dundee, IL
Age: 24
GP G A Pts
29 3 21 24
Brogan Rafferty has quickly made himself one of the top Canucks prospects on D. A late season signing last year out of the NCAA, Rafferty has an intriguing story. Diagnosed with scoliosis in his youth Rafferty is also legally blind in his right eye. He also didn’t even start playing defense until high school, playing as a forward before his father suggested he switch. Rafferty had signed with the Canucks after three productive years at Quinnipiac University. In his two NHL games last season I thought he looked pretty good, although he certainly didn’t stand out enough to be particularly memorable. Coming into his first NHL training camp Rafferty caused a bit of a stir with his strong play and was close to making the team out of camp although with the added depth on the blueline the team added in the summer that was always an unlikely proposition. Still, Rafferty made a name for himself and was one of the last cuts of camp. He has carried that strong play right into Utica where he has been a fixture on the top pairing. Rafferty leads the Comets in defensive scoring by a wide margin and is tied for second in league scoring amongst rookie defenders. Rafferty is still a bit rough around the edges in terms of defensive play and he can sometimes make some pretty bad gauffs on the defensive end but really all in all Rafferty looks like yet another win for the NCAA scouting staff and another great overage find for the Canucks.
Josh Teves (D, Undrafted, Signed 2019)
Height: 6’0 Weight: 175 Hometown: Calgary, AB
Age: 24
GP G A Pts
20 0 1 1
Another undrafted prospect, Josh Teves was signed last year alongside Brogan Rafferty and Mitch Eliot. The Calgary native played one game for the Canucks last season and is playing in his first professional season. Teves had what I thought was a pretty weak preseason, and he is definitely pushed back down the depth chart a bit because of it. Teves is not a particularly offensive defender and he is still in search of his first pro goal. At 24 Teves likely does not have much more room to grow and is probably pretty close to where his peak will be as an athlete.

ECHL

Jake Kielly (G Undrafted, Signed 2019)
Height: 6’2 Weight: 201 Hometown: Eden, MN
Age: 23
GP | W | L | OTL | SV% | GAA|A ---|---|----|----|----|---- 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.874 | 4.03 |1
When the Canucks announced the signing of Jake Kielly at the tail end of the season last year I was intrigued but also a little confused. The well of young goalies was already decently deep and then with the Canucks drafting and signing Arturs Silovs over the summer it got even deeper. Still, you can truly never have too many goalie prospects and Kielly did have a very distinguished collegiate career with Clarkson University so I was interested to see how he would do in the pros. I figured he and DiPietro were going to battle it out for the backup job in Utica behind Richard Bachman or even that they would together push Bachman out, but then the Canucks signed Zane McIntyre and things got even more complicated. Once McIntryre was signed the writing was on the wall that at least one of DiPietro or Kielly would find themselves in Kalamazoo. I thought that perhaps the younger DiPietro would be the one heading to Southern Michigan but I was mildly surprised to see it was the older Kielly who was ultimately chosen to play for the Wings. So far in his young pro career, Kielly has been basically splitting starts with ECHL veteran goaltender and fellow Jake, Jake Hildebrand and the results have been…. Sub-optimal. Kielly has struggled to start his pro career, currently posting a rather ghastly 874 save percentage and a 4.03 goals against average. To be fair to Kielly his partner between the pipes hasn’t fared much better so far and in fact the whole team in front of him has not been performing very well as the Wings are currently last place in the Central Division although they still have less games played than almost everyone else in their Conference. Kielly’s career is still in its infancy and goaltenders can have such weird development curves that it is way too early to be drawing any concrete conclusions but given how good his NCAA numbers were I was honestly expecting a little bit better from the Minnesota native. Here’s hoping he can start to figure it out down there in Kalamazoo because having more good goaltenders in the minors is never a bad thing.

CHL

Carson Focht (C 133rd overall 2019)
Height: 6’0 Weight: 181 lbs Hometown: Regina, SK
Age: 19
Playing with Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
GP G A Pts
27 16 10 26
Some people were a little bit surprised when the Canucks took an overager in Carson Focht in the fourth round of the 2019 draft but the team went out of their way to mention that they really liked him a lot. An unknown entity coming into training camp, Focht was one of the standouts amongst the rookies and then followed it up with a decent showing at a Team Canada World Juniors showcase game. Now in his fourth full WHL season Focht has really been something of a late bloomer. In his earlier days in junior he had very pedestrian numbers but a trade from the Tri-City Americans to the Calgary Hitmen seemed to spark an offensive side that he hadn’t previously shown and after going nearly a PPG last season Focht has kept right on going, currently sitting in fifth in scoring on the Hitmen at almost a PPG. You always have to be a bit cautious putting too much stock into overage junior numbers, and any player who has a hope of making a pro career should be dominating at Carson’s age. Still, given his relatively unknown status it is interesting to see how much he has shot up in recognition. Playing alongside fellow Canucks prospect Jett Woo, Focht’s Calgary Hitmen have been a strong team early on in this season and currently hold the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, though they have some games in hand to some of the other teams in front of them. It will be interesting to follow how Focht’s season shakes out as the Sasakatchewan native would be eligible to join Utica next season.
Ethan Keppen (LW 122nd overall 2019)
Height: 6’2 Weight: 212lbs Hometown: Whitby, ON
Age 18
Playing with Flint Firebirds (OHL)
GP G A Pts
27 11 7 18
The second 2019 draft pick on this list, Ethan Keppen is a big bodied power forward type much in the same mold as Jonah Gadjovich. Keppen has had the misfortune of playing with the Flint Firebirds which have been one of the most dysfunctional and poorly managed teams in CHL history where he was one of the sole bright spots. Keppen had a very strong season last year tying for second in points on the Firebirds only behind Stars first rounder Ty Dellandrea. This season hasn’t been as good for Keppen and he’s currently on pace for a worse season statistically than last year. It is obviously still very early days in the season but it is never a good sign in junior when a player’s numbers go backwards, especially for a forward. The Firebirds so far have also not been a total tire fire for once and it seems that Dellandrea has gotten a bit more run support from his supporting cast. Keppen is currently seventh on the Firebirds in scoring.
Arturs Silovs (G 156th overall 2019)
Height: 6’4 Weight: 213 lbs Hometown: Riga, Latvia
Age 18
Playing with Barrie Colts (OHL)
GP W L OTL SV% GAA
18 9 8 1 0.885 3.90
Despite being a sixth round pick, Arturs Silovs has the distinction of being the first Canucks property from the 2019 draft class to be signed by the team. The scouting staff were clearly very high on Silovs, having mentioned him specifically in their post-draft interviews. Dan Cloutier when he was with the team apparently loved the kid as well and went so far as to fly out to see him in Latvia, and Silovs clearly knew the team was very interested as well since he and his family made the trek all the way to Vancouver to attend the draft in person, something you don’t see many sixth rounders doing. It’s not even like Silovs had fallen all that far behind where he was expected to be picked in the first place but clearly this is a player that the team has a specific interest in as they not only signed him to his ELC right after drafting him but worked with the CHL to get him over into the OHL. This is Silovs first season in North America and he joins a struggling Barrie Colts squad who missed out on the post-season last year. Silovs has been the starting goalie for the Colts and while his numbers have been okay, he started well but he has fallen off quite a bit lately. Though most importantly he’s managed to keep them in the win column more often than not when he’s in net. Standing at 6’4 Silovs has the size of an NHL goalie but also is extremely athletic. It’s easy to see why the team is so high on him because he might be raw but the potential is there. If he does pan out enough to make it to the AHL, he should provide a nice contrast to the undersized but effective DiPiero although we still have a long way to go before then.
Jett Woo (D 37th overall 2018)
Height: 6'0 Weight: 203 Hometown: Winnipeg, MB
Age: 19
Playing with Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
GP G A Pts
30 4 12 16
One of the single hottest prospect stories in recent memory was Jett Woo’s breakout season with the Moosejaw Warriors last year. What was a typically smart, physical, and conservative defensive game transformed into a playmaking one as Woo had an exceptional season offensively on the backend for the Warriors. Like most people in Canucks nation I was thrilled with Woo’s showing last year and was excited to see what he could do this season especially with increased responsibilities on the Warriors. However we never got to see how this would have panned out as in a bit of a surprise move Woo was sent packing to the Calgary Hitmen, a team with a much deeper defense core. On his new team it would seem Woo has gone back to his bread and butter, being a physical shut down blueliner, and therefore his offensive numbers have taken quite a hit. It’s disappointing to see Woo’s numbers overall falling off, although as much as we all wanted to say otherwise looking at his whole body of work last season’s numbers did always seem a bit of an outlier. Like I said before Calgary is deep on the back end with dynamic Flyers prospect Egor Zamula being the main offensive straw that stirs the drink for the Hitmen. Woo is still second in the points for defensive scoring although he trails Zamula by quite a large margin. Woo’s role on the team has changed quite a bit and despite his numbers dropping his style of game could still easily translate to the NHL.

NCAA

William Lockwood (RW 64th overall 2016)
Height: 5’11 Weight: 172 Hometown: Bloomfield Hills, MI
Age: 21
Playing with: University of Michigan
GP G A Pts
15 4 3 7
Yikes. It has not been a great start at all for Will Lockwood. The fourth year forward out of the University of Michigan was a player that the Canucks had strong interest in turning pro at the tail end of last season but Lockwood opted for one more year of college and that decision so far early on looks like it might have cost him. One of just two prospects left from an abysmal 2016 draft class Lockwood hasn’t had the easiest go of it as he’s been plagued by shoulder injuries throughout his college career. I have never been as high on Lockwood as some has but he’s a shifty speedster who has some very bright moments though I’ve always quetioned his overall upside. I’ve heard from some scouts who refer to him as a poor mans Jannik Hansen and from what little I’ve seen of his game I can’t say I disagree. Lockwood has never been an explosive scorer and he’s never finished over a PPG in his collegiate career, but still four points in ten games is pretty poor no matter how you slice it, especially as he is one of the older guys on the team. To be fair to Lockwood however the Wolverines this year have had a very rough go of it and the once strong program has had much of its talent stripped away due to poaching from the NHL. Some of its biggest names over the past few years like Quinn Hughes, Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk have moved onto their NHL careers and while the program does have two freshman first round picks in Cam York (Philly) and John Beecher (Boston) who are leading the charge the supporting cast just isn’t there. That includes Will Lockwood as he is the third highest drafted player behind these two and one of a few fourth years on the team. There has always been a question about Lockwood over whether or not he would sign with the team after his college career ends but if he keeps up this pace I don’t know if there will be much NHL interest in him at all. Hopefully he can pick himself up and get himself going, but I think he might have played his cards too close to the vest when he turned down the opportunity to sign his ELC at the end of last season and play some games for the Canucks.
Tyler Madden (C 68th overall 2018)
Height: 5'11 Weight: 152 Hometown: Albany, NY
Age: 20
Playing with: Northeastern
GP G A Pts
18 13 11 24
One of the breakout stars last year was Tyler Madden. The lanky centre had a fantastic freshman year at Northeastern University, filling in Adam Gaudette’s spot beautifully. Whenever a young guy has a strong season you want to see if they can follow it up, and so far Madden has done just that, as he is performing even better this season than last season. Madden leads the Huskies in scoring, by quite a large margin actually and has been the main offensive catalyst in the school’s great start to their season. The Canucks seriously owe coach Jim Madigan and the whole staff at Northeastern a great deal of gratitude as it seems that every prospect we send their way turns into gold as we will further see a little bit later on in this list. If Madden can keep this pace up, he could be a Hobey Baker finalist and might even find himself on the Canucks roster at the end of the season depending of course on how both teams do.
Jack Malone (F 180th overall 2019)
Height: 6’1 Weight: 192 Hometown: Madison, NJ
Age: 19
Playing with: Cornell
GP G A Pts
10 1 3 4
It has been a very slow start for Jack Malone. Taken as an overager after one breakout USHL season, Malone’s first year at Cornell hasn’t seen much in the way of production. Unlike its Ivy League rival Harvard, Cornell’s hockey program has never really produced much in the way of legit NHL talent and the school right now is in the middle of the pack of the ECAC in terms of record this season. Malone does have an intriguing skill set and was a bit of a late bloomer so we will see if he can find his game this year playing for the Big Red. Malone is an economics major at Cornell’s prestigious Dyson Business school so if this whole hockey thing doesn’t end up working out, I’m sure he will be fine.
Aidan McDonough (LW 195th overall 2019)
Height: 6’4 Weight: 190 Hometown: Milton, MA
Age: 19
Playing with: Northeastern
GP G A Pts
15 7 8 15
Another year another prospect coming up huge for Northeastern University. Aidan McDonough was an interesting story when he was first drafted as last year as he had been passed over previously in the last draft. McDonough is actually childhood friends with another Canucks prospect Jack Rathbone which led some people to dismiss his drafting as a ploy to get Rathbone to sign but clearly this season so far McDonough has proven that he stands his own as a legitimate prospect. So far in his freshman year McDonough has gone a PPG and was recently named the rookie of the week in the NCAA due to a 4 point performance. It will be interesting to see if McDonough can continue this performance, given his physical size he has an intriguing skill set and would be a nice piece to have going forward if his offensive game is legit.
Jack Rathbone (D 95th overall 2017)
Height: 5’10 Weight: 177 Hometown: West Roxbury, MA
Age: 21
Playing with: Harvard
GP G A Pts
10 3 7 10
Now in his second year at Harvard, Jack Rathbone has continued to grow and develop. With the Crimson’s best blueliner from last season (Adam Fox now of the New York Rangers) gone Rathbone has been given additional responsibility and so far he has seemed to flourish with it. The Massachusetts native is second on the team in defensive scoring behind Devils prospect Reilly Walsh and is tied for third overall in points on the whole team. Rathbone’s elite skating abilities would sure look great alongside Quinn Hughes and he has the skills that perfectly complement the modern style of game. Fingers crossed Rathbone continues his strong play and makes the jump to the pros with the Canucks sooner rather than later.
Matthew Thiessen (G 192nd overall 2018)
Height: 6'2 Weight: 190 Hometown: Altona, MB
Age: 18
Playing with: University of Maine
GP W L OTL SV% GAA
1 0 1 0 0.500 25.59
So um….. I’m not quite sure what the heck is going on with Matthew Thiessen. After playing in the USHL where he had an up and down season the Manitoba native moved on to the NCAA with the University of Maine where he has so far played a grand total of seven minutes this season, in one game wherein he allowed three goals on six shots. Since this garish game I guess the coaching staff had decided that they had seen enough because Jeremey Swayman a Bruins prospect has played every game for the Black Bears. Thiessen counting stats are obviously brutal, however he has not exactly had a large sample size upon which to draw from. I hope that the coaching staff in Maine do give him another chance this year but things aren’t looking great for the Manitoba native right now, especially with there being so many goalie prospects in the system right now.

Europe

Arvid Costmar (C 215th overall 2019)
Height: 5’11 Weight 181 Hometown: Stockholm, Sweden
Age: 18
Playing with Linkoping HC J20 (SuperElit)
GP G A Pts
17 12 14 26
With Linkoping HC (SHL)
GP G A Pts
3 0 0 0
Here’s another prospect having a strong season. Arvid Costmar was one of the last picks made in the draft. He was described as his draft as a simple but effective forward, who was decent at both ends of the ice. So far in this season he has shown considerable improvement from his draft season playing primarily in the SuperElit U20 Swedish Junior League and his 26 points are tied for first in team scoring. Costmar is looking strong this year and will be pushing to make Sweden’s World Junior Team.
Nils Hoglander (LW 40th overall 2019)
Height: 5’9 Weight: 190 lbs Hometown: Bockstrack, Sweden
Age: 18
Playing with: Rogle BK (SHL)
GP G A Pts
19 6 3 9
When Nils Hoglander was drafted this summer, there was near universal appraise for the skilled Swede. Watching him play, you can see why because the kid oozes skill. This is Hoglander’s 2nd season in the SHL which is very impressive given that he is only 18, and the fact that he is playing in a men’s league is important to remember when you look at his numbers. Hoglander should be in contention to make Sweden’s World Junior Team and is tied for seventh in team scoring despite the fact that he has played fewer games than others on his team. It will be interesting to see what both the team and Hoglander decide to do starting next year, he will likely come over to North America sooner rather than later, and if he hits his potential the Canucks might have an immediate top six forward to plug into their lineup.
Linus Karlsson (F 87th overall 2018, Acquired 2019)
Height: 6’1 Weight: 179 Hometown: Eksjo, Sweden
Age: 19
Playing with: Karlskrona HK (Allsvenskan)
GP G A Pts
31 7 10 17
It seems like Linus Karlsson has been a bit of a forgotten prospect for the Canucks this year. The Swedish forward was acquired last season in a trade for Jonathan Dahlen, and was seen by most as a player with a lower ceiling but higher floor. So far this year Karlsson is third in points on Karlskrona and he is only one point away from tying his career best from last season. Karlsson is a well rounded player, who has a strong instinct for defense and plays a simple but effective overall game.
Artyom Manukyan (RW 186th overall 2018)
Height: 5'7 Weight: 139 Hometown: Omsk, Russia
Age: 21
Playing with: Avangard Omsk (KHL)
GP G A Pts
0 0 0 0
Artyom Manukyan has yet to play a game this season due to an injury he sustained in the pre-season. The small Russian winger played his first full KHL season last year where he appeared in all 62 games for Avangard Omsk and scored 15 points. Updates are difficult to come by for European league injuries so I could not find any information on the nature of the injury nor the expected length of time that he is expected to miss but hopefully he can get back on the ice as soon as possible.
Petrus Palmu (RW 181st 2017)
Height: 5’6 Weight: 179 Hometown: Joensuu, Finland
Age: 22
Playing with: JYP (Liiga)
GP G A Pts
20 8 13 21
After signing his ELC last year, Petrus Palmu found himself struggling with the Comets and after some disagreements between himself and the coaching staff there he decided to return to his native Finland. It was a tough season for Palmu overall, and he played in a reduced role, scoring 18 points in just 29 games. This year, Palmu decided to remain in Finland rather than returning to Utica. In his second professional season Palmu has played much better overall and has already passed last years point totals with 21 points in 20 games. All reports indicate that Palmu is looking like a new player this season and he is playing with the confidence he had when he was tearing up the OHL with Owen Sound. Apparently the team and Palmu’s representatives are in talks to have the diminutive Finn return to Utica when his Liiga season ends in a few months although time will tell if this ever materializes. I think it is definitely best for Palmu’s career to head back over to North America and try and mend fences with the staff in Utica if he wants a legitimate chance to play in the NHL. He does have the skill as he is demonstrating, it is just the question of whether he can put it all together.
Vasili Podkolzin (RW 10th 2019)
Height: 6’1 Weight: 192 lbs Hometown: Moscow, Russia
Age: 18
Playing with: SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)
GP G A Pts
14 0 0 0
With: SKA-Neva St. Petersburg (VHL)
GP G A Pts
16 3 5 8
With: SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL)
GP G A Pts
2 0 4 4
The most recent first round hope for the Vancouver Canucks, Vasili Podkolzin has been living the pinball life of a teenager in Russian pro hockey and so far he has bounced around between the KHL, the MHL (Russia’s AHL), and the VHL (Russia’s Junior League). Podkolzin has made a career high in appearances in the KHL this season suiting up for 14 games. In these games he has yet to tally on the scoreboard although it sounds like he has hardly received any minutes on the always deep SKA team. Down in the VHL Podkolzin is doing okay, scoring 8 points in 16 games on a team with many older players, and in the MHL Podkolzin made a big impact in limited appearances, getting four assists in just two games. Overall as a prospect watcher it has been frustrating to see Podkolzin bounce around so much from team to team and I can imagine it would be difficult to get into any sort of rhythm or build any chemistry with anyone when you are constantly on a different roster. Here in North America we did get to see a bit of him in the Subway Super Series and we will hopefully see even more this holiday season with the World Juniors. Podkolzin has one more year on his KHL contract after this one, so he will almost certainly be in the KHL again next season but hopefully he can start to find some footing and play more regular minutes.
Karel Plasek (RW 175th 2019)
Height: 5’11 Weight: 154 lbs Hometown: Gottwaldov, Czech Republic
Age: 19
Playing with HC Kometa Brno (Czech)
GP G A Pts
22 2 2 4
With HC Prerov (Czech 2)
GP G A Pts
6 0 1 1
Karel Plasek is the Canucks first Czech prospect since Lukas Jasek and like Jasek he has bounced around various Czech leagues throughout this season. The Czech forward has played mostly in the top Czech league with Kometa Brno where he has 4 points in 22 games. It is importnat to remember that he is a teenager playing in a mens league so the point totals might seem unimpressive but the fact that he has played so many games in the top league is a very good sign. Plasek will be in contention to make the Czech World Junior Team as well.
Toni Utunen (D 130th overall 2018)
Height: 5'11 Weight: 170 Hometown: Kokkala, Finland
Age: 19
With Tappara Tampere (Liiga)
GP G A Pts
16 0 3 3
Now in his second full pro season with Tappara Toni Utunen’s game has continued to grow. Utunen is a bit of a hidden gem in the Canucks prospect cabinet but I think he could really be a dark horse moving forward and I liked what I saw from him at prospect camp. Utunen has never been an offensive defenseman but he has already tied his previous season’s point totals in far fewer games. Utunen will likely play on Finland’s World Junior Team once again this year and we will see if he can top his overtime heroics from last time around.
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Margin-Call? - Was genau ist ein Margin-Call Trading 212 - YouTube Daytrading für Anfänger - Margin Call HOW TO TRADE IN TRADE RACER FOR EFFECTIVE INTRADAY TARDING PART-1 Margin Line

Trading 212 issues a margin call at 45% with an automatic stop out at 25%. What is the maximum leverage offered by Trading 212? Trading 212 offers maximum leverage of 1:300, but this is available to professional clients only. Some only operate only with Margin Calls, while others define separate Margin Call and Stop Out Levels. In this lesson, we will go through a real-life trading scenario where you are using a broker that only operates with a Margin Call. The broker defines its Margin Call Level at 100% and has no separate Stop Out Level. A margin call is when a trader is told that their brokerage balance has dropped below the minimum equity amounts mandated by margin requirements.Traders who experience a margin call must quickly deposit additional cash or securities into their account, or else the brokerage may begin liquidating the trader's positions to cover margin requirements. 45% Status - Margin Call When your account status drops below 45%, we will send you an email notification with a “low margin” warning. Below 25% - Negative Balance Protection If your account status drops below 25%, we will automatically close all positions, following their opening order, to prevent you from losing more than your deposited As a retail client, you will never lose more funds than you have initially deposited to your Trading 212 account. Due to the Negative Balance Protection policy, we will send a margin call, when you have lost your available funds.Once your positions are no longer able to be maintained, we will automatically close them and protect you from going into a negative balance.

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Margin-Call? - Was genau ist ein Margin-Call

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