Why Day Traders Should Stick to the 1-Percent Risk Rule

Nano Bay

For trading goods and services with Nano.
[link]

GoFundMe

GoFundMe allows regular people to accomplish extraordinary things with easy-to-use personal donation websites. From exciting life events like weddings & graduations to challenging circumstances like accidents & illnesses, the GoFundMe fundraising software remains one of the best ways to raise money online.
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A place for all COVID-19 / Coronavirus fundraising

If you are in trouble, laid off or want to help people affected by the Coronavirus This is the place!
[link]

I’m a n00b at this with a couple dumb questions: (1) is there a limit to the # of trades a person can make per day? And (2) do the crypto markets stay open during the weekend?

Again sorry if these are super dumb questions but I tried googling and wasn’t finding clear answers. I don’t have time to trade during the work week really, so I’m hoping to do it on weekends but wasn’t sure if it’s like the normal stock market and crypto market is frozen on weekends. Also would I be able to trade all day if I wanted to (not that I necessarily would but just curious) or do you incur penalties for that? Or are you limited to a certain number of trades per day or per hour? Thanks in advance to anyone nice enough to help me...
submitted by Saint_Covfefe to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Newcomers FAQ - Please read!

Welcome to the /Bitcoin Sticky FAQ

You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments.
It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Some other great resources include Lopp.net, the Princeton crypto series and James D'Angelo's Bitcoin 101 Blackboard series.
Some excellent writing on Bitcoin's value proposition and future can be found at the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute.
Some Bitcoin statistics can be found here and here. Developer resources can be found here. Peer-reviewed research papers can be found here.
Potential upcoming protocol improvements and scaling resources here and here.
The number of times Bitcoin was declared dead by the media can be found here (LOL!)

Key properties of Bitcoin

Where can I buy bitcoins?

Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage.
Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".

Securing your bitcoins

With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email!
2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
Google Auth Authy OTP Auth
Android Android N/A
iOS iOS iOS

Watch out for scams

As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".

Where can I spend bitcoins?

Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Store Product
Gyft Gift cards for hundreds of retailers including Amazon, Target, Walmart, Starbucks, Whole Foods, CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, iTunes, Best Buy, Sears, Kohls, eBay, GameStop, etc.
Spendabit, Overstock and The Bitcoin Directory Retail shopping with millions of results
ShakePay Generate one time use Visa cards in seconds
NewEgg and Dell For all your electronics needs
Bitwa.la, Coinbills, Piixpay, Bitbill.eu, Bylls, Coins.ph, Bitrefill, LivingRoomofSatoshi, Coinsfer, and more Bill payment
Menufy, Takeaway and Thuisbezorgd NL Takeout delivered to your door
Expedia, Cheapair, Destinia, Abitsky, SkyTours, the Travel category on Gyft and 9flats For when you need to get away
Cryptostorm, Mullvad, and PIA VPN services
Namecheap, Porkbun Domain name registration
Stampnik Discounted USPS Priority, Express, First-Class mail postage
Coinmap and AirBitz are helpful to find local businesses accepting bitcoins. A good resource for UK residents is at wheretospendbitcoins.co.uk.
There are also lots of charities which accept bitcoin donations.

Merchant Resources

There are several benefits to accepting bitcoin as a payment option if you are a merchant;
If you are interested in accepting bitcoin as a payment method, there are several options available;

Can I mine bitcoin?

Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out.
If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.

Earning bitcoins

Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
Site Description
WorkingForBitcoins, Bitwage, Cryptogrind, Coinality, Bitgigs, /Jobs4Bitcoins, BitforTip, Rein Project Freelancing
Lolli Earn bitcoin when you shop online!
OpenBazaar, Purse.io, Bitify, /Bitmarket, 21 Market Marketplaces
/GirlsGoneBitcoin NSFW Adult services
A-ads, Coinzilla.io Advertising
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.

Bitcoin-Related Projects

The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
Project Description
Lightning Network Second layer scaling
Blockstream, Rootstock and Drivechain Sidechains
Hivemind and Augur Prediction markets
Tierion and Factom Records & Titles on the blockchain
BitMarkets, DropZone, Beaver and Open Bazaar Decentralized markets
JoinMarket and Wasabi Wallet CoinJoin implementation
Coinffeine and Bisq Decentralized bitcoin exchanges
Keybase Identity & Reputation management
Abra Global P2P money transmitter network
Bitcore Open source Bitcoin javascript library

Bitcoin Units

One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
Unit Symbol Value Info
bitcoin BTC 1 bitcoin one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
millibitcoin mBTC 1,000 per bitcoin used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
bit bit 1,000,000 per bitcoin colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
satoshi sat 100,000,000 per bitcoin smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki.
Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit.
Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval.
Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
submitted by BitcoinFan7 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I am 14 y/o and wanting to retire at 30 - but parents are blocking my journey

So hello everyone, when I was 13 I learned about FIRE. I never forgot about it, but now I am willing to truly achieve financial freedom when I am 30-40 y/o.
Maybe this sounds weird, but I am doing Surveys that get me 30-40 cents a day in Litecoin.
I am using a trusted interest provider that offers 0.02% interest a day.
I am also trying to buy low and sell high. (Swing trading)
0.30$ is not that much, but it is zero effort, and I love compound interest.
Now there’s a catch, my parents don’t want me to buy cryptocurrency. - Kinda agree with them, but when I told them about Index Funds I wanted to buy, they declined. So I am secretly buying crypto because their is no better alternative.
Then, I am converting 15-30$ a month to cash (because my parents can’t know about this), what I exchange for giftcards, what I exchange to the top cryptocurrencies. I also earn the same interest here.
When school reopens I am mining crypto on some school computers what gives me 0.05$ returns a day. This is not a well-known currency so I am not investing my own money in there.
Then I can start working tommorow what will get me around 100$ a month. But the problem is, that this number is way to big to convert to cash every month.
On top of that I am earning around 5$ per month in Paypal cash by re-selling a dropshipping course. I also get 0.02% a day on this.
I know this post could sound weird to you guys, but I am really asking for advice here.
How can I convert my fiat cash in a passive income stream, that is not sketchy, but will get great returns in the next 15+ years without my parents knowing?
Or are there better ways to earn money online? I have decent coding skills, Azure, BaaS, webdevelopment etc.
NB: Sorry for my bad English, it is not my main language.
Thanks for your help!
submitted by MierenKnager to Fire [link] [comments]

Chainlink analysis - my thoughts and research

Necessary Disclaimer: no rule breaking intended. No price manipulation intended. I only want to share verifiable facts/links and my analysis. If I am doing anything against the rules please let me know and I will do my best to fix it ASAP. I trade crypto, including LINK, and I am currently short on LINK. This is not financial advice; this is just for my own record and to start a discussion for anyone who might want more transparency around LINK.

TL;DR:

I believe there is a lot of misinformation, uncertainty, and unanswered questions about the LINK token, the Chainlink ecosystem, the SmartContract parent company. I also believe that LINK's current price is unjustified based on fundamental factors like usage/business case/current customers/future potential. So I'm raising some points and asking some questions.
What is this post? Why should I care? How do I use it?
Read or skim it. It's about the LINK token, the Chainlink ecosystem, and the parent company SmartContract. It's about why I believe the price of the LINK token may be currently driven mostly by hype and not backed by standard market fundamentals like usage/economics.
Update 9 AUG: reorganizing, rewriting this post and moving supporting data/sources into "appendix" comments below on this post. The previous versions of this post and my comments elsewhere were too emotionally charged and caused more division rather than honest, evidence-based, productive discussion and I sincerely apologize for that. I have now rewritten it and will continue to update it.

PARTNERSHIPS

Who has Chainlink partnered with? Who is using Chainlink's technology and network? Who is contributing to developing Chainlink?
Google - this is the pinned tweet on Chainlink's official page. Nothing there about Google using Chainlink services or co-developing with them. Just that blockchains/oracles CAN use google cloud services (APIs?). This is Google Cloud's June 13, 2019 blog post: https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/data-analytics/building-hybrid-blockchain-cloud-applications-with-ethereum-and-google-cloud
Oracle - (TODO. This seems to have potential as some product manager at Oracle has posted that chainlink integration is coming Q3/Q4 of 2020)
SWIFT - the best they've got is a 30 second video with NOBODY from SWIFT present, with a *hypothetical* use case using SWIFT API.
Intel This is the only google result for "chainlink site:intel.com", and it casually mentions that Intel's TEE (trusted execution environment) technology can be used to improve the security of oracles/blockchains. Nothing about Intel themselves using or developing with Chainlink. https://software.intel.com/content/www/us/en/develop/articles/new-confidential-computing-solutions-emerge-on-the-hyperledger-avalon-trusted-compute.html
Another 240+ claimed project integrations:
[TODO] There are so many to keep track of. Every week or even more frequent is yet another integration *announcement*
Current DeFi usage: we've heard that Chainlink "secures" $1 billion in DeFi. But that's not in value locked: https://defipulse.com/ (LINK doesn't even appear on that list). That's just with DeFi data supposedly being priced using Chainlink nodes.
EG Synthetix:
https://blog.synthetix.io/chainlink-decentralizes-first-wave-of-synthetix-price-feeds/ yet where does Synthetix actually PAY to use an oracle? Not visible on-chain, maybe someone will find it.
https://defipulse.com/blog/3-defi-dapps-starting-2020-off-strong/ "... Chainlink's following includes partnerships big and small, including Intel and Google Cloud services" example of misleading/exaggerated partnership claims being circulated.

Chainlink's ROADMAP

Threshold signatures, staking, on-chain SLAs:
How real are these, is there a roadmap, how will this benefit users, is there any evidence of users currently *wanting* to use chainlink but needing these features and actively waiting for Chainlink to launch these?
Staking: for there to be a valid incentive for users to stake LINK, it has to return around 5% annually because anything substantially under that would have users putting their money elsewhere (https://www.stakingrewards.com/cryptoassets) (not counting speculative capital gains in terms of LINK's price, but price gain per token/coin applies to all other crypto projects as well).
Currently, for stakable cryptos, around 30-80% of their total supply is staked, and a good adjusted reward is on the order of 5% as well (some actually negative, some 10%+). The promise of staking incentivises people to buy and hold more LINK tokens (again, many other crypto projects have staking already live). That 5% reward will ultimately have to come from the customers who pay Chainlink oracle nodes to use their services, so it's an extra 5% fee for them. Of course, in the near future, the staking rewards *could* be subsidized by the founders' reserve wallets.
Threshold signatures: addressed below in a comment.
On-chain SLAs: [TODO]
Here's supposedly Chainlink's agile/project planning board. (TODO: verify that it is indeed Chainlink's, and then analyse it)
https://www.pivotaltracker.com/n/projects/2129823

LINK wallet addresses

As LINK is an ERC20 token on the Ethereum blockchain, all its movements are visible, all the way from the genesis creation of 1,000,000,000 LINK tokens through to aggregator nodes through to cashing out on exchanges. Below are some examples and some reasons why this may be concerning to investors/holders of LINK.
This is one LINK address whale with over 6 million LINK. Looks like some of the funds end up on a Turkish exchange Paribu. https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xc6bed363b30df7f35b601a5547fe56cd31ec63da This wallet has moved out >200,000 LINK in the last 24 hours. Don't know where, go trace it.
Typical data provider example. Lots of named Chainlink oracle nodes pay this address: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x72f3dff4cd17816604dd2df6c2741e739484ca62 Usually 0.16 LINK to this address every few minutes, sometimes 2 LINK. This data provider has sent out ~11,620 LINK out to the following wallet: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xa5d0084a766203b463b3164dfc49d91509c12dab That wallet has cashed out 9,560 LINK to 1inch.exchange (a DEX) over the past year. Has also transferred 6000 LINK to a currently loaded wallet (possibly exchange account ready to sell?): https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x088d50c0bb5381a1205d1182cc21496c6fdc4c62 Another destination accumulation wallet (~493,000 LINK with no out transfers yet) https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x7758e507850da48cd47df1fb5f875c23e3340c50 (unrelated but a sell order of this size would drop LINK's price by 10-30% on Binance, someone check my maths on this) Now tracing back who funds the 0x72f3... data provider, we see a number of named Chainlink Aggregator nodes. Picking one at random, say the TUSD/ETH one: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x73ead35fd6a572ef763b13be65a9db96f7643577 It was last funded March 12 2020 with 5000 LINK. Tracing back the funds we ultimately come to the genesis wallet of the Chainlink network itself, the original source of the 1,000,000,000 LINK tokens in existence. (side note: some interesting-looking transactions there) This is the first child of the genesis wallet that received 100,000,000 from the genesis wallet. https://etherscan.io/tokentxns?a=0xf37c348b7d19b17b29cd5cfa64cfa48e2d6eb8db Last time this wallet transferred out was YESTERDAY for 500,000 LINK. Now this doesn't prove anything, DYOR, but to me it looks like the genesis wallets are slowly cashing out through the aggregator nodes, making it look like the oracle node network is being actively used (which it is, but it's not the end customers like AAVE/NEXO paying the LINK required to power oracles, it's SmartContract itself). I know that this is just ONE aggregator node, but I've seen the same behaviour from their other named nodes - go check for yourselves.
If you trace chainlink oracle funds to their source, you can find some of the original addresses. Some of these early on (around 1000 days ago) were linked to AfroDex labs, which looks like now doesn’t work. http://afrodex.net/#!/trade/AfroX-ETH
Who currently pays Chainlink nodes?
How much of the revenue that Chainlink nodes receive is from potentially third party customers vs internal funding by the Chainlink team wallets?
For example, this is the "Chainlink: LINK / USD Aggregator" wallet.
It has had a total 8,200 LINK deposited from 5 transactions in round amounts (on any of the below links, click the "Analytics" tab to see In/Out balance history), and has so far paid out ~5,156 LINK.
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x32dbd3214ac75223e27e575c53944307914f7a90
It typically pays ~10 wallets 0.16 Link each, a few times an hour, like so:
https://etherscan.io/tx/0x02c595981b935a57cfbe6170656181faac9a16d7a33a123930a716c4abec615a ($45 in ETH fees to transfer $22 worth of LINK, sounds like a lot of overheads)
Where does this aggregator wallet get its LINK funding from?
From ONLY here: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x27158157136384c713bc09a0a7ae81c8391d7f11 (current net balance ~50,000 LINK, total ~5,000,000 million in and out)
Which in turn gets it from ONLY these three, in HUGE amounts:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xf37c348b7d19b17b29cd5cfa64cfa48e2d6eb8db (6,000,000 LINK)
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xaf40738c6f940519516e043f924b8d05fc0292b8 (just a jump address into the one above, only 3 total tx)
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x1f9e26f1c050b5c018ab0e66fcae8e4394eb0165 (147,000 LINK)
the 0x1f9e2... one got its funding from:
  1. 6098.8 LINK from Binance about a year ago: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x161cdd891e04a77e0458a3ef65c563c4d2064cd6
  2. 12,600,000 from the genesis wallet through one jump address https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xdad22a85ef8310ef582b70e4051e543f3153e11f
  3. 13,000,000 from the 0xf37... wallet above
the 0xf37... in turn got its 50,000,000 (!) LINK from the genesis address which minted the original 1 billion tokens:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xf55037738604fddfc4043d12f25124e94d7d1780
So the 0x27158... wallet is basically a genesis wallet.
Now let's do the most popular feed on feeds.chain.link, the ETH/USD feed: https://feeds.chain.link/eth-usd, with a wallet address of: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xF79D6aFBb6dA890132F9D7c355e3015f15F3406F#tokenAnalytics
It was first funded in Jan 2020 and has been funded a total of 9 times for a total influx of 108,437.533 LINK, by:
  1. "Chainlink: Deployer" 10 LINK: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x6f61507f902e1c22bcd7aa2c0452cd2212009b61
  2. The 0x27158... genesis-sourced wallet, 20,000 LINK
  3. An intermediary/middle very active wallet (which is 99.998% funded by the 0x27158... genesis-sourced wallet), 52,000 LINK https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x2f0acb9c5dd2a3511bc1d9d67258e5c9434ba569
  4. "Chainlink: Aggregator", 36,427.533 LINK, https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x79febf6b9f76853edbcbc913e6aae8232cfb9de9#tokenAnalytics
I manually traced EVERY single inbound transaction/source of funds for the above 4 (not counting #1 as 10 LINK is negligible). 2 & 3 are 99.99%+ genesis-funded, being ACTIVELY topped up by a genesis wallet, last tx 4 days ago, 500,000 LINK. #4 has been funded 36 times over the past year and a half (that's 36 manual exports and I did them all). They all come from the 0x27158..., 0x2f0acb..., and https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x1f9e26f1c050b5c018ab0e66fcae8e4394eb0165 (another address like the 0x2f0acb that I went through and checked EVERY SINGLE inbound source of funds, and it's also >99.9% genesis-funded - one tx from Binance for 6098 LINK out of a total ~6,560,000 inbound LINK from genesis wallets), and two other addresses linked to Binance (0x1b185c8611d157a67d9a9d5261b0d2bd52c0bb78, 10,000 LINK and 0x039ac18afe298747c51c85e7c8f0d67c327f3883, 1,000,000 LINK)
The 0x039ac... address funded the "Chainlink: Aggregator" address with 127,900 LINK, and the 0x1b185... with about ~9,600 LINK). So yes, it's technically possible that someone not related to Chainlink paid for the ETH / USD price feed because some funds do come from Binance. However, they only come from two distinct addresses. Surely for "240+" claimed partnerships, more than TWO would pay to use Chainlink's MOST POPULAR price feed? That is, unless they don't pay directly but to another address and then Chainlink covers this one from their own wallets. I will check if that's in line with Chainlink's whitepaper, but doesn't that throw doubt on the whole model of end-users paying to use oracles/aggregators, even if it's subsidized?
I provide you this much detail not to bore you but to show you that I went through BY HAND and checked every single source (detailed sources in Appendix B) of funds for the OFFICIAL, Chainlink-listed "ETH/USD" aggregator that's supposedly sponsored by 10 DeFi partners (Synthetix, LoopSpring, OpenLaw, 1inch, ParaSwap, MCDEX, FuturesSwap, DMM, Aave, The Force Protocol). Yet where are the transactions showing that those 10 partners have EVER paid for this ETH/USD oracle? Perhaps the data is there so what am I missing? This ETH/USD aggregator has transferred out ~76,000 LINK to I guess the data providers in increments of .33 LINK. It has 21 data providers responding. I will begin investigating the data providers themselves soon.
And those middle addresses like 0x1f9e26... and 0x2f0acb...? They have transferred out hundreds of thousands if not millions of LINK to exchanges. And that's just ONE price pair aggregator. Chainlink has around 40 of these (albeit this one's one of the more popular ones).

SNX / ETH aggregator is funded 100% by genesis-sourced wallets, only 3 inbound transactions:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xe23d1142de4e83c08bb048bcab54d50907390828

Some random examples (for later, ignore these for now) ***********
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x039ac18afe298747c51c85e7c8f0d67c327f3883 bought 1,000,000 LINK from Binance in Sept 12 & 15, 2019. (one of the possible funding sources for the ETH / USD aggregator example above)
This address got 500,000 LINK from 0x27158... and has distributed them into ~5-10,000 LINK wallets that haven't had any out transactions yet
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x5bcf3edc0bb7119e35f322ba40793b99d4620f1e
**************
Another example with an unnamed aggregator-node-like wallet that was only spun up 5 days ago, Aug 5:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x2cbfd29947f774b8cf338f776915e6fee052f236
It was funded 2,000 LINK SOLELY by the 0x27158... wallet and has so far paid out ~500 LINK in 0.43 LINK amounts to 9 wallets at a time. For example, this is one of the wallets it cashes out to:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x64fe692be4b42f4ac9d4617ab824e088350c11c2#tokenAnalytics
That wallet extremely consistently collects small amounts of LINK since Oct 2019. It must be a data provider because a lot of Chainlink named wallets pay it small amounts of LINK regularly. It has transferred out 20 times. The most recent transfer out:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xc8c30fa803833dd1fd6dbcdd91ed0b301eff87cf which then immediately transferred to the named "1inch.exchange" wallet, so I assume this was a "cash-out" transaction. It has cashed out via this address a lot.
Granted, it also has transfer-out transactions that haven't (yet) ended up in an exchange wallet, eg https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x88e5353a73f38f25a9611e6083de6f361f9b537b with a current balance of 3000 LINK. This could be a user's exchange wallet, ready to be sold, or could be something else. No way for me to tell as there are no out txs from it.

LINK overall transaction, volume, and tx fees

This is to understand how much $ moves through the LINK ecosystem through: nodes, data providers, reserve wallets, wallets linked to exchanges, others.
A typical aggregator node tx (payout?): https://etherscan.io/tx/0xef9e8e6dd94ebe9bbac8866f18c2ea0a07408ced1aa77fa04826043eaa55e772 This is their ETH/USD aggregator paying out 1 LINK to each of 21 addresses. Value of 21 LINK ~= $210. Total eth tx fees: .233 ETH (~$88.5, ~42% of the total tx value. If LINK was $4.2 instead of $10, the tx fees would be 100% of the value of the tx). Transactions like this happen every few minutes, and the payout amounts are most often 0.16, 0.66, 1.0, and 2.0 Link.
Chainlink’s node/job listing site, https://market.link, lists 86 nodes, 195 feeds, 801 jobs, ~1,080,000 job runs (I can’t tell if this is over the past 2 months or 1.5 years). Only 20 nodes have over 1000 job runs, and 62 nodes have ZERO runs. Usual job cost is listed as 0.1 link, but the overall payout to the nodes is 10-20 times this. The nodes then cash out usually through a few jump addresses to exchanges. Some quick maths: (being generous and assuming it’s 1mil jobs every 2 months = ~6mil link/year = $60,000,000 revenue a year. This is the most generous estimate towards link’s valuation I’ve found so far. If we ignore the below examples where on multi-node payouts the tx fees are more than the node revenue itself, then it’s almost in line with an over-valued (but real) big tech company.
For example, one of the latest CHF/USD job runs paid 0.1 LINK to 9 addresses (data providers?) - total $14.4 payout - and paid 0.065 ETH ($24.5) in fees. That’s a $10.1 LOSS on a $14.4 revenue: https://etherscan.io/tx/0xa6351bab810b6864bfebb0f6e1e3bde3c8856f8aac3ba769dd2e6d1a39c0d23f
Linkpool’s (one of the biggest node operators) “ETH-USD CryptoCompare” job costs 0.1 link and has 33 runs in the past 24 hours (once every ~44min), total ~78,000 runs since May 30 2019 (once every ~8min). https://market.link/jobs/64bb0845-c4e1-4681-8853-0b5aa7366101/runs (PS cryptocompare has a free API that does this. Not sure why it costs $1 at current link prices to access an API once)

Token distribution:

Top 100 wallets (0.05% of ~186,000 total) hold 83% of tokens. 8 wallets each hold over 1% of total, 58 hold over 0.1%. Of these 58, 9 are named exchange/lending pool wallets.
For comparison, for Tether (TUSD), the top 100 wallets (0.006% of ~1,651,000 total) hold 35.9% of the supply. 3 addresses hold over 1% of the supply and 135 hold over 0.1%. Of these 135, at least 15 are named exchange/lending pool wallets.
LINK’s market cap is $3.5B (or $10B fully diluted, if we count the foundedev-controlled tokens, which we should as there's nothing preventing them from being moved at a moment's notice). Tether’s is $6.9B. Tether has 10 times more addresses and less distribution inequality. Both LINK and Tether are ERC20 tokens, and even if we temporarily ignore any arguments related to management/roadmap/teams etc, Tether has a clear, currently functional, single use case: keep 1 USDT = $1 USD by printing/burning USDT (and yet as of April 2019, only 74% of Tether's market cap is backed by real funds - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency))). Given that Chainlink's market cap is now 50% bigger than Tether's, surely by now there's AT LEAST one clear, currently functional use case for LINK? What is it? Can we *see* it happening on-chain?

Chainlink’s actual deliverable products

"What do I currently get for my money if I buy LINK 1) as an investor and 2) as a tech business/startup thinking of using oracles?”
Codebase (Chainlink’s github has around 140-200,000 lines of code (not counting html/css). What else is not counted in this? Town crier? Proprietary code that we don't know about yet? How much CODING has Chainlink done other than what's on github?
Current network of oracles - only ~20 active nodes - are there many more than the ones listed on market.link and reputation.link? If so, would be nice to know about these if we're allowed!
Documentation - they have what seems like detailed instructions on how to launch and use oracle nodes (and much more, I haven't investigated yet) (TODO this part more - what else do they offer to me as an end consumer, and eg as a tech startup needing oracle services that I can’t code myself?)

Network utilization statistics:

Etherscan.io allows csv export of the first 5000 txs from each day. From Jul 31 to Aug 6 2020, I thus downloaded 30,000 tx from midnight every day to an average of 7:10am (so 24 hour totals are 3.34x these numbers if we assume the same network utilization throughout the day).
(Summary of all LINK token activity on the ETH blockchain from 31.07 to 06.08, first 5000 txs of each day (30k total) shown Appendix A comment below this post.)
If we GENEROUSLY assume that EVERY SINGLE transaction under 10.0 LINK is ACTUAL chainlink nodes doing ACTUAL work, that’s still under 0.1% of the LINK network’s total volume being used for ACTUAL ecosystem functioning. The rest is speculation, trading, node funding by foundedev wallets, or dumping to exchanges (anything I missed?)
Assuming the above, the entire turnover of the actual LINK network is currently (18,422 LINK) * ($10/LINK) * (3.34 as etherscan.io’s data only gives first 5000 tx per day which averages to 7:10am) * (52 wk/year) = USD $31,995,329 turnover a year.
Note: the below paragraph is old analysis using traditional stock market Price/Earnings ratios which several users have now pointed out isn't really applicable in crypto. I leave it for the record. Assuming all of that is profit (which it’s not given tx fees at the very least), LINK would need a PE ratio (Price/Earnings) of 100 times to justify its current (undiluted) valuation of $3.5 billion of 300 if you count the other 65% of tokens that haven’t been dumped by the founders/devs yet. For comparison, common PE ratios are 32 (facebook), 29 (google), 37 (uber), 20 (twitter on a good year), 10 (good hedge fund returning 10% annual).

Thoughts on DeFi & yield-farming - [TODO]

Why would exchanges who do their due diligence list LINK, let alone at a leverage? 1) that's their business, they take a cut of every transaction, overhyped or not, 2) they're not safe from listing openly bearish tokens like EIDOS (troll token that incentivized users to make FAKE transactions, response to EOS) https://www.coindesk.com/defi-yield-farming-comp-token-explained
The current ANNUAL yield on liquidity/yield farming is something like 2% on STABLE tokens like USDC and TETHER which at least have most of their supply backed by real-world assets. If Chainlink LINK staking is to be successful, they'll have to achieve at LEAST that same 2% at end-state. IF LINK is in bubble territory and drops, that's a lot of years at 2% waiting to recoup losses.

SmartContract Team & Past Projects

Normally I don't like focussing on people because it leads too easily to ad-hominem attacks on personality rather than on technology/numbers as I've done above, but I came across this and didn't like what I saw.
Steve Ellis, SmartContract's current CTO, co-founded and worked in "Secure Asset Exchange" from 2014 to 2016. They developed the NXT blockchain, issued 1,000,000,000 NXT tokens (remind you of anything?), NXT was listed end of 2013 and saw 3 quick 500%-1000% pumps and subsequent dumps in early in mid 2014, and then declined to . SecureAE officially shut down in Jan 2016. Then at some point a company called Jelurida acquired the rights to NXT (presumably after SecureAE?), then during the 2017 altcoin craze NXT pumped 300 times to a market cap of $1.8 BILLION and then dumped back down 100 times and now it's a dead project with a market cap of $13 million.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/steveellis0606/
https://trade.secureae.com/
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nxt/
https://www.jelurida.com/news/lawsuit-against-apollo-license-violations
As an investor or business owner, would you invest/hire a company whose co-founders/CTO's last project was a total flop with a price history chart that's textbook pump-and-dump behaviour? (and in this case, we KNOW the end result - 99% losses for investors) If you're Google/Oracle/SWIFT/Intel, would you partner with them?

Open questions for the Chainlink community and investors:

  1. Network activity: Are there any other currently active chainlink nodes other than those listed on market.link and reputation.link? If so, is there a list of them with usage statistics? Do they use some other token than LINK and thus making simple analytics of the LINK ERC20 token not an accurate representation of Chainlink’s actual activity? If the nodes listed on the two sites above ARE currently the main nodes, then
  2. PR, partnership announcements: Why is the google tweet still pinned to the top of Chainlink’s twitter? Due to the frequently circulated Chainlink promotion material (https://chainlinkecosystem.com/) that lists Google as one of the key partners, this tweet being pinned is potentially misleading as there isn't anything in there to merit calling Google a "collaborator" or "partner" - just that blockchains/oracles *can* use Google's APIs (but so can most software in the world). Is there something else going on with the SmartContract-Google relationship that warrants calling Google a partner that we're simply not aware of yet?
  3. By buying LINK, what backs YOUR money: If you have bought and currently hold LINK tokens, how comfortable are you that the future promise of your investment growing is supported on verifiable business and technological grounds versus pure, parabolic hype? If after reading this post you still are, I kindly ask you to reply and show how even one of the points I provided is either incorrect or not applicable, and I will edit my post and include your feedback in the relevant section as I have already done from other users.
  4. What have I missed? Of course not 100% of what I've said is infallible truth. I am a real human, and I have plenty of biases and blind spots. Even if what I've provided is technically correct, there may be other much more important info that I've missed that eclipses what I've provided here. Ask yourself: if the current hype around LINK is indeed valid and points to a $100/$1000 future LINK price, then Where’s Chainlink’s missing financial/performance/usage evidence to justify LINK’s current valuation of $10+?

Conclusion

For your consideration, I have provided evidence with links that you can follow and verify, and draw your own conclusions. I have made my case as to why I believe the LINK token is currently priced much higher than evidence supports, and I ask you to peer-review my analysis and share your thoughts with me and with the wider LINK/crypto community.
Thank you for your time, I realize this is a long post. All questions and feedback welcome, feel free to comment or PM. I won't delete/censoblock (except for personal threats, safety considerations etc). I am a real human but I am not revealing my true identity for obvious privacy/harassment reasons.
(If anyone is wondering about my credentials ability to add 2+2 and work with basic spreadsheets: I have previously won a math competition in a USA state, I won an English-speaking country's physics olympiad, my university education is in mathematical physics/optimization engineering, and I worked for a few years in a global manufacturing company doing data analytics, obviously I'm not posting my CV here to verify that but I promise you it's the truth)
I’m not looking to spread neither FUD, nor blind faith, nor pure hype, and I want an honest transparent objective discussion. I personally believe more that LINK is overvalued, but my beliefs have evolved and may continue to do so as I research more and understand more about Chainlink, LINK, Ethereum, DeFi, and other related topics, and as I incorporate YOUR feedback. If you think I haven't disclosed something, ask.
As always, this is not financial advice and I am not liable for anything that may happen as a result of you reading this!
submitted by Stratocatter to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Investment Thesis: Why investing in POW.TO (Power Corporation of Canada) now is an investment in a future high market cap Wealthsimple IPO

I have seen some posts here wondering about the wisdom of investing in Wealthsimple's parent company, Power Corporation of Canada (POW.TO). I decided to look more into this, decided to post my investment thesis and research on why I, long-term, I have a very bullish view on Wealthsimple (and by extension POW.TO), and why I think this is equal to being an early stage investor in a Wealthsimple IPO.

Overview

Current Products

Investment Rounds

WS has had many successful rounds of funding and a vote of confidence from both its parent POW.TO and other multinationals investing in fintech.

Growth

WS has been extremely aggressive in targeting growth areas. Wealthsimple’s CEO Mike Katchen has said he wants to position the company as a “full-stack” financial services company. Here are some of their current expansion areas:

People

WS is run by young guys who have big ambitions and plans for the company. Sometimes there are CEOs with the intangibles that can really drive a company's growth, and from what I can glean, I think the company has a lot of potential here in terms of vision by its leaders. You can read more about the founders here
Quote sfrom CEO: Michael Katchen
On being laughed out of the boardroom when he proposed his idea for Wealthsimple:
Within the last month, Wealthsimple has also opened an office in London. Katchen said a push into the European market is “possible” as its “ambitions are global,” but right now the Canadian and U.S. markets are “a lot to chew.” It is a far cry from the company’s early days: Katchen said he was “laughed out of the boardroom” for laying out a global vision for Wealthsimple at a time when they had just $1.9-million in funding and 20 users***.***“It’s a very personal mission of mine since I moved back from California, to inspire more Canadian companies to think big and to think internationally about the businesses that they’re building,” he said. (reference)
On Wealthsimple's growth in the next 10-15 years:
Wealthsimple has more than $5 billion in assets under management and 175,000 customers in Canada, the U.S. and U.K. He sees that reaching $1 trillion 15 years. “We’re just getting started,” he said. “Our plans are to get to millions of clients in the next five years.” (reference)

Brand Value and Design

Out of all the financial services company in Canada, WS probably has the most cohesive and smart design concept across its platforms and products. I see the value in Wealthsimple in not just the assets they have under management, but also the value of the brand itself. I mean, what kind of financial services company makes a blog post about their branding colour scheme and font choices? Also see: Wealthsimple’s advertisement earlier this year capturing 4 million views on Youtube.
There also seems to be very strong brand awareness and brand loyalty amongst its users. I think a lot of users find WS refreshing as a financial services company because they cut through the "bullshit" and legalese, and try to simply things for the consumer. They also have their own in house team of designers and creative directors to do branding, design, and advertising, and this kind of vertical integration is generally unheard of in the financial services industry (reference).

Potential IPO?

Interestingly, the CEO’s ultimate goal is to take the company public. Therefore, I see an investment in POW.TO as being an early stage pre-IPO investor in WS (reference).
The goal is to get Wealthsimple to the size and scale to go public, something that Katchen said he’s “obsessed with.” While admitting that an IPO was still a few years down the road, Katchen already has a target of $20 billion in assets under administration (AUA) as the tipping point (the company recently announced $4.3 billion in AUA as of Q1 2019) (reference)

Future Potential

Ultimately, my sense is that a spun-out Wealthsimple IPO eventually be worth a lot, perhaps even more than POW.TO at some point. Obviously the company is losing money right now, and no where even close to an IPO, and there are still many chances that this company could flop. The best analogy that I can think of is when Yahoo bought an early stake in Alibaba (BABA) back in the early 2000s, and there came a point where their stake in BABA was worth more than Yahoo’s core business. I think an investment in POW.TO now is an early investment in WS before it goes public. (reference)

Risks

The X Factor

What I find particularly compelling about WS is they have aggressively positioned themselves to be a disruptor in the Canadian financial services industry. This is an area that has traditionally been thought to be a firewall for the Big Five Banks. There is also a generational gap in investing approaches, knowledge, and strategy, and I think WS has positioned itself nicely with first-time investors. My sense is that COVID-19 has also captured a huge amount of young adults with its trading app in the last few months, who will continue to use Wealthsimple products in the future. The average age of its user is around 34. As younger individuals are more comfortable with moving away traditional banking products, I think Wealthsimple’s product offering offers significant advantages over its competitors.

Power Corp is a Good Home

Currently POW.TO is trading at $26.30, down from its 52-week high of $35.15. I see an investment in POW.TO now as fairly low risk, and while WS grows, and there is also the added benefit of a high dividend stock. One of the most confusing things I found about Power Corp was its confusing corporate structure where there were two stocks, Power Financial Corp, and Power Corp of Canada. Fortunately, in Dec 2019, they simplified and consolidated the stocks, which also simplifies the holding structure of WS. I currently see POW.TO has a good stock to hold as well if you're a dividend holder, with a dividend of 6.86%.
Also, POW.TO is patient enough to bide its time and let its investment in WS grow, unlike a VC that might want to sell it quick. For example, the reason why WS went with POW.TO instead of the traditional VC route is explained here:
Katchen has directly addressed the question of why he did not go the traditional VC route recently, saying: If you are a business that requires perhaps decades to achieve the vision you have, well, if you’re not going to be able to generate the kind of returns that venture needs is they will force you to sell yourself, they will force you to go public before you’re ready, or they will just forget about you because you’re going to be a write off. And so Katchen essentially flipped Wealthsimple to Power Financial. Power is well known as a conservative, patient, long-term investor. (https://opmwars.substack.com/p/the-wealthsimple-founders-before)
My belief is there is a huge unrecognized potential in POW.TO's massive ownership stake in WS that will be realized maybe 5-10 years down the road. I didn't really dive into the financials of POW.TO in relation to WS's performance, because the earnings reports do no actually say much about WS. I'm aware of the main criticisms that POW.TO is a mature company and dividend stock that has been trading sideways for many years, and the fact that WS is currently not a profitable company. I am not a professional investor, and this is just my amateur research, so I certainly welcome any comments/criticism of this thesis that people on this subreddit might have! (Please be gentle on me!).

Other Readings

- https://betakit.com/wealthsimple-raises-100-million-from-allianz-x-to-build-a-full-stack-financial-service/
- https://betakit.com/power-financial-claims-89-percent-stake-in-wealthsimple-following-new-30-million-investment/
- https://www.powercorporation.com/media/uploads/reports/quartepcc-2020-q2-eng_3KVPXLd.pdf

Edit: Thanks to all for the thoughtful comments about POW's size and other holdings relative to WS, and that WS is basically a tiny, tiny portion of POW.TO. Again, I am just an amateur investor, appreciate we can discuss these points on this forum! And fair point is taken that WS's margins are also razor thin right now. I guess I am buying more into the CEO's vision of growth (see this video about his confidence about getting to $1 trillion AUM (!) in the next 8 years), rather than the current financial status or size of the company. Call me delusional if you will :P.
In any case, glad that I was able to flush out these thoughts with the CanadianInvestor community! I do wonder if WS's expansion into a broad-based financial services company (into mortgages, credit lines, and life insurance) might increase their profitability and size over time. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wealthsimple-targets-canada-s-richest-with-grayhawk-partnership-1.1301993
submitted by soggybread to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]

How the TFSA works

(Updated August 9th, 2020)

Background


You may have heard about off-shore tax havens of questionable legality where wealthy people invest their money in legal "grey zones" and don't pay any tax, as featured for example, in Netflix's drama, The Laundromat.

The reality is that the Government of Canada offers 100% tax-free investing throughout your life, with unlimited withdrawals of your contributions and profits, and no limits on how much you can make tax-free. There is also nothing to report to the Canada Revenue Agency. Although Britain has a comparable program, Canada is the only country in the world that offers tax-free investing with this level of power and flexibility.

Thank you fellow Redditors for the wonderful Gold Award and Today I Learned Award!

(Unrelated but Important Note: I put a link at the bottom for my margin account explainer. Many people are interested in margin trading but don't understand the math behind margin accounts and cannot find an explanation. If you want to do margin, but don't know how, click on the link.)

As a Gen-Xer, I wrote this post with Millennials in mind, many of whom are getting interested in investing in ETFs, individual stocks, and also my personal favourite, options. Your generation is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this extremely powerful program at a relatively young age. But whether you're in your 20's or your 90's, read on!

Are TFSAs important? In 2020 Canadians have almost 1 trillion dollars saved up in their TFSAs, so if that doesn't prove that pennies add up to dollars, I don't know what does. The TFSA truly is the Great Canadian Tax Shelter.

I will periodically be checking this and adding issues as they arise, to this post. I really appreciate that people are finding this useful. As this post is now fairly complete from a basic mechanics point of view, and some questions are already answered in this post, please be advised that at this stage I cannot respond to questions that are already covered here. If I do not respond to your post, check this post as I may have added the answer to the FAQs at the bottom.

How to Invest in Stocks


A lot of people get really excited - for good reason - when they discover that the TFSA allows you to invest in stocks, tax free. I get questions about which stocks to buy.

I have made some comments about that throughout this post, however; I can't comprehensively answer that question. Having said that, though, if you're interested in picking your own stocks and want to learn how, I recommmend starting with the following videos:

The first is by Peter Lynch, a famous American investor in the 80's who wrote some well-respected books for the general public, like "One Up on Wall Street." The advice he gives is always valid, always works, and that never changes, even with 2020's technology, companies and AI:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRMpgaBv-U4&t=2256s


The second is a recording of a university lecture given by investment legend Warren Buffett, who expounds on the same principles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MHIcabnjrA

Please note that I have no connection to whomever posted the videos.

Introduction


TFSAs were introduced in 2009 by Stephen Harper's government, to encourage Canadians to save.

The effect of the TFSA is that ordinary Canadians don't pay any income or capital gains tax on their securities investments.

Initial uptake was slow as the contribution rules take some getting used to, but over time the program became a smash hit with Canadians. There are about 20 million Canadians with TFSAs, so the uptake is about 70%- 80% (as you have to be the age of majority in your province/territory to open a TFSA).

Eligibility to Open a TFSA


You must be a Canadian resident with a valid Social Insurance Number to open a TFSA. You must be at the voting age in the province in which you reside in order to open a TFSA, however contribution room begins to accumulate from the year in which you turned 18. You do not have to file a tax return to open a TFSA. You do not need to be a Canadian citizen to open and contribute to a TFSA. No minimum balance is required to open a TFSA.

Where you Can Open a TFSA


There are hundreds of financial institutions in Canada that offer the TFSA. There is only one kind of TFSA; however, different institutions offer a different range of financial products. Here are some examples:


Insurance


Your TFSA may be covered by either CIFP or CDIC insuranceor both. Ask your bank or broker for details.

What You Can Trade and Invest In


You can trade the following:


What You Cannot Trade


You cannot trade:

Again, if it requires a margin account, it's out. You cannot buy on margin in a TFSA. Nothing stopping you from borrowing money from other sources as long as you stay within your contribution limits, but you can't trade on margin in a TFSA. You can of course trade long puts and calls which give you leverage.

Rules for Contribution Room


Starting at 18 you get a certain amount of contribution room.

According to the CRA:
You will accumulate TFSA contribution room for each year even if you do not file an Income Tax and Benefit Return or open a TFSA.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the years 2009 to 2012 was $5,000.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the years 2013 and 2014 was $5,500.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the year 2015 was $10,000.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the years 2016 to 2018 was $5,500.
The annual TFSA dollar limit for the year 2019 is $6,000.
The TFSA annual room limit will be indexed to inflation and rounded to the nearest $500.
Investment income earned by, and changes in the value of TFSA investments will not affect your TFSA contribution room for the current or future years.

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/tax-free-savings-account/contributions.html
If you don't use the room, it accumulates indefinitely.

Trades you make in a TFSA are truly tax free. But you cannot claim the dividend tax credit and you cannot claim losses in a TFSA against capital gains whether inside or outside of the TFSA. So do make money and don't lose money in a TFSA. You are stuck with the 15% withholding tax on U.S. dividend distributions unlike the RRSP, due to U.S. tax rules, but you do not pay any capital gains on sale of U.S. shares.

You can withdraw *both* contributions *and* capital gains, no matter how much, at any time, without penalty. The amount of the withdrawal (contributions+gains) converts into contribution room in the *next* calendar year. So if you put the withdrawn funds back in the same calendar year you take them out, that burns up your total accumulated contribution room to the extent of the amount that you re-contribute in the same calendar year.

Examples


E.g. Say you turned 18 in 2016 in Alberta where the age of majority is 18. It is now sometime in 2020. You have never contributed to a TFSA. You now have $5,500+$5,500+$5,500+$6,000+$6,000 = $28,500 of room in 2020. In 2020 you manage to put $20,000 in to your TFSA and you buy Canadian Megacorp common shares. You now have $8,500 of room remaining in 2020.

Sometime in 2021 - it doesn't matter when in 2021 - your shares go to $100K due to the success of the Canadian Megacorp. You also have $6,000 worth of room for 2021 as set by the government. You therefore have $8,500 carried over from 2020+$6,000 = $14,500 of room in 2021.

In 2021 you sell the shares and pull out the $100K. This amount is tax-free and does not even have to be reported. You can do whatever you want with it.

But: if you put it back in 2021 you will over-contribute by $100,000 - $14,500 = $85,500 and incur a penalty.

But if you wait until 2022 you will have $14,500 unused contribution room carried forward from 2021, another $6,000 for 2022, and $100,000 carried forward from the withdrawal 2021, so in 2022 you will have $14,500+$6,000+$100,000 = $120,500 of contribution room.

This means that if you choose, you can put the $100,000 back in in 2022 tax-free and still have $20,500 left over. If you do not put the money back in 2021, then in 2022 you will have $120,500+$6,000 = $126,500 of contribution room.

There is no age limit on how old you can be to contribute, no limit on how much money you can make in the TFSA, and if you do not use the room it keeps carrying forward forever.

Just remember the following formula:

This year's contribution room = (A) unused contribution room carried forward from last year + (B) contribution room provided by the government for this year + (C) total withdrawals from last year.

EXAMPLE 1:

Say in 2020 you never contributed to a TFSA but you were 18 in 2009.
You have $69,500 of unused room (see above) in 2020 which accumulated from 2009-2020.
In 2020 you contribute $50,000, leaving $19,500 contribution room unused for 2020. You buy $50,000 worth of stock. The next day, also in 2020, the stock doubles and it's worth $100,000. Also in 2020 you sell the stock and withdraw $100,000, tax-free.

You continue to trade stocks within your TFSA, and hopefully grow your TFSA in 2020, but you make no further contributions or withdrawals in 2020.


The question is, How much room will you have in 2021?
Answer: In the year 2021, the following applies:
(A) Unused contribution room carried forward from last year, 2020: $19,500
(B) Contribution room provided by government for this year, 2021: $6,000
(C) Total withdrawals from last year, 2020: $100,000

Total contribution room for 2021 = $19,500+6,000+100,000 = $125,500.

EXAMPLE 2:
Say between 2020 and 2021 you decided to buy a tax-free car (well you're still stuck with the GST/PST/HST/QST but you get the picture) so you went to the dealer and spent $25,000 of the $100,000 you withdrew in 2020. You now have a car and $75,000 still burning a hole in your pocket. Say in early 2021 you re-contribute the $75,000 you still have left over, to your TFSA. However, in mid-2021 you suddenly need $75,000 because of an emergency so you pull the $75,000 back out. But then a few weeks later, it turns out that for whatever reason you don't need it after all so you decide to put the $75,000 back into the TFSA, also in 2021. You continue to trade inside your TFSA but make no further withdrawals or contributions.

How much room will you have in 2022?
Answer: In the year 2022, the following applies:

(A) Unused contribution room carried forward from last year, 2021: $125,500 - $75,000 - $75,000 = -$24,500.

Already you have a problem. You have over-contributed in 2021. You will be assessed a penalty on the over-contribution! (penalty = 1% a month).

But if you waited until 2022 to re-contribute the $75,000 you pulled out for the emergency.....

In the year 2022, the following would apply:
(A) Unused contribution room carried forward from last year, 2021: $125,500 -$75,000 =$50,500.
(B) Contribution room provided by government for this year, 2022: $6,000
(C) Total withdrawals from last year, 2020: $75,000

Total contribution room for 2022 = $50,500 + $6,000 + $75,000 = $131,500.
...And...re-contributing that $75,000 that was left over from your 2021 emergency that didn't materialize, you still have $131,500-$75,000 = $56,500 of contribution room left in 2022.

For a more comprehensive discussion, please see the CRA info link below.

FAQs That Have Arisen in the Discussion and Other Potential Questions:



  1. Equity and ETF/ETN Options in a TFSA: can I get leverage? Yes. You can buy puts and calls in your TFSA and you only need to have the cash to pay the premium and broker commissions. Example: if XYZ is trading at $70, and you want to buy the $90 call with 6 months to expiration, and the call is trading at $2.50, you only need to have $250 in your account, per option contract, and if you are dealing with BMO IL for example you need $9.95 + $1.25/contract which is what they charge in commission. Of course, any profits on closing your position are tax-free. You only need the full value of the strike in your account if you want to exercise your option instead of selling it. Please note: this is not meant to be an options tutorial; see the Montreal Exchange's Equity Options Reference Manual if you have questions on how options work.
  2. Equity and ETF/ETN Options in a TFSA: what is ok and not ok? Long puts and calls are allowed. Covered calls are allowed, but cash-secured puts are not allowed. All other option trades are also not allowed. Basically the rule is, if the trade is not a covered call and it either requires being short an option or short the stock, you can't do it in a TFSA.
  3. Live in a province where the voting age is 19 so I can't open a TFSA until I'm 19, when does my contribution room begin? Your contribution room begins to accumulate at 18, so if you live in province where the age of majority is 19, you'll get the room carried forward from the year you turned 18.
  4. If I turn 18 on December 31, do I get the contribution room just for that day or for the whole year? The whole year.
  5. Do commissions paid on share transactions count as withdrawals? Unfortunately, no. If you contribute $2,000 cash and you buy $1,975 worth of stock and pay $25 in commission, the $25 does not count as a withdrawal. It is the same as if you lost money in the TFSA.
  6. How much room do I have? If your broker records are complete, you can do a spreadsheet. The other thing you can do is call the CRA and they will tell you.
  7. TFSATFSA direct transfer from one institution to another: this has no impact on your contributions or withdrawals as it counts as neither.
  8. More than 1 TFSA: you can have as many as you want but your total contribution room does not increase or decrease depending on how many accounts you have.
  9. Withdrawals that convert into contribution room in the next year. Do they carry forward indefinitely if not used in the next year? Answer :yes.
  10. Do I have to declare my profits, withdrawals and contributions? No. Your bank or broker interfaces directly with the CRA on this. There are no declarations to make.
  11. Risky investments - smart? In a TFSA you want always to make money, because you pay no tax, and you want never to lose money, because you cannot claim the loss against your income from your job. If in year X you have $5,000 of contribution room and put it into a TFSA and buy Canadian Speculative Corp. and due to the failure of the Canadian Speculative Corp. it goes to zero, two things happen. One, you burn up that contribution room and you have to wait until next year for the government to give you more room. Two, you can't claim the $5,000 loss against your employment income or investment income or capital gains like you could in a non-registered account. So remember Buffett's rule #1: Do not lose money. Rule #2 being don't forget the first rule. TFSA's are absolutely tailor-made for Graham-Buffett value investing or for diversified ETF or mutual fund investing, but you don't want to buy a lot of small specs because you don't get the tax loss.
  12. Moving to/from Canada/residency. You must be a resident of Canada and 18 years old with a valid SIN to open a TFSA. Consult your tax advisor on whether your circumstances make you a resident for tax purposes. Since 2009, your TFSA contribution room accumulates every year, if at any time in the calendar year you are 18 years of age or older and a resident of Canada. Note: If you move to another country, you can STILL trade your TFSA online from your other country and keep making money within the account tax-free. You can withdraw money and Canada will not tax you. But you have to get tax advice in your country as to what they do. There restrictions on contributions for non-residents. See "non residents of Canada:" https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/cra-arc/formspubs/pub/rc4466/rc4466-19e.pdf
  13. The U.S. withholding tax. Dividends paid by U.S.-domiciled companies are subject to a 15% U.S. withholding tax. Your broker does this automatically at the time of the dividend payment. So if your stock pays a $100 USD dividend, you only get $85 USD in your broker account and in your statement the broker will have a note saying 15% U.S. withholding tax. I do not know under what circumstances if any it is possible to get the withheld amount. Normally it is not, but consult a tax professional.
  14. The U.S. withholding tax does not apply to capital gains. So if you buy $5,000 USD worth of Apple and sell it for $7,000 USD, you get the full $2,000 USD gain automatically.
  15. Tax-Free Leverage. Leverage in the TFSA is effectively equal to your tax rate * the capital gains inclusion rate because you're not paying tax. So if you're paying 25% on average in income tax, and the capital gains contribution rate is 50%, the TFSA is like having 12.5%, no margin call leverage costing you 0% and that also doesn't magnify your losses.
  16. Margin accounts. These accounts allow you to borrow money from your broker to buy stocks. TFSAs are not margin accounts. Nothing stopping you from borrowing from other sources (such as borrowing cash against your stocks in an actual margin account, or borrowing cash against your house in a HELOC or borrowing cash against your promise to pay it back as in a personal LOC) to fund a TFSA if that is your decision, bearing in mind the risks, but a TFSA is not a margin account. Consider options if you want leverage that you can use in a TFSA, without borrowing money.
  17. Dividend Tax Credit on Canadian Companies. Remember, dividends paid into the TFSA are not eligible to be claimed for the credit, on the rationale that you already got a tax break.
  18. FX risk. The CRA allows you to contribute and withdraw foreign currency from the TFSA but the contribution/withdrawal accounting is done in CAD. So if you contribute $10,000 USD into your TFSA and withdraw $15,000 USD, and the CAD is trading at 70 cents USD when you contribute and $80 cents USD when you withdraw, the CRA will treat it as if you contributed $14,285.71 CAD and withdrew $18,75.00 CAD.
  19. OTC (over-the-counter stocks). You can only buy stocks if they are listed on an approved exchange ("approved exchange" = TSX, TSX-V, NYSE, NASDAQ and about 25 or so others). The U.S. pink sheets "over-the-counter" market is an example of a place where you can buy stocks, that is not an approved exchange, therefore you can't buy these penny stocks. I have however read that the CRA make an exception for a stock traded over the counter if it has a dual listing on an approved exchange. You should check that with a tax lawyer or accountant though.
  20. The RRSP. This is another great tax shelter. Tax shelters in Canada are either deferrals or in a few cases - such as the TFSA - outright tax breaks, The RRSP is an example of a deferral. The RRSP allows you to deduct your contributions from your income, which the TFSA does not allow. This deduction is a huge advantage if you earn a lot of money. The RRSP has tax consequences for withdrawing money whereas the TFSA does not. Withdrawals from the RRSP are taxable whereas they are obviously not in a TFSA. You probably want to start out with a TFSA and maintain and grow that all your life. It is a good idea to start contributing to an RRSP when you start working because you get the tax deduction, and then you can use the amount of the deduction to contribute to your TFSA. There are certain rules that claw back your annual contribution room into an RRSP if you contribute to a pension. See your tax advisor.
  21. Pensions. If I contribute to a pension does that claw back my TFSA contribution room or otherwise affect my TFSA in any way? Answer: No.
  22. The $10K contribution limit for 2015. This was PM Harper's pledge. In 2015 the Conservative government changed the rules to make the annual government allowance $10,000 per year forever. Note: withdrawals still converted into contribution room in the following year - that did not change. When the Liberals came into power they switched the program back for 2016 to the original Harper rules and have kept the original Harper rules since then. That is why there is the $10,000 anomaly of 2015. The original Harper rules (which, again, are in effect now) called for $500 increments to the annual government allowance as and when required to keep up with inflation, based on the BofC's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Under the new Harper rules, it would have been $10,000 flat forever. Which you prefer depends on your politics but the TFSA program is massively popular with Canadians. Assuming 1.6% annual CPI inflation then the annual contribution room will hit $10,000 in 2052 under the present rules. Note: the Bank of Canada does an excellent and informative job of explaining inflation and the CPI at their website.
  23. Losses in a TFSA - you cannot claim a loss in a TFSA against income. So in a TFSA you always want to make money and never want to lose money. A few ppl here have asked if you are losing money on your position in a TFSA can you transfer it in-kind to a cash account and claim the loss. I would expect no as I cannot see how in view of the fact that TFSA losses can't be claimed, that the adjusted cost base would somehow be the cost paid in the TFSA. But I'm not a tax lawyeaccountant. You should consult a tax professional.
  24. Transfers in-kind to the TFSA and the the superficial loss rule. You can transfer securities (shares etc.) "in-kind," meaning, directly, from an unregistered account to the TFSA. If you do that, the CRA considers that you "disposed" of, meaning, equivalent to having sold, the shares in the unregistered account and then re-purchased them at the same price in the TFSA. The CRA considers that you did this even though the broker transfers the shares directly in the the TFSA. The superficial loss rule, which means that you cannot claim a loss for a security re-purchased within 30 days of sale, applies. So if you buy something for $20 in your unregistered account, and it's trading for $25 when you transfer it in-kind into the TFSA, then you have a deemed disposition with a capital gain of $5. But it doesn't work the other way around due to the superficial loss rule. If you buy it for $20 in the unregistered account, and it's trading at $15 when you transfer it in-kind into the TFSA, the superficial loss rule prevents you from claiming the loss because it is treated as having been sold in the unregistered account and immediately bought back in the TFSA.
  25. Day trading/swing trading. It is possible for the CRA to try to tax your TFSA on the basis of "advantage." The one reported decision I'm aware of (emphasis on I'm aware of) is from B.C. where a woman was doing "swap transactions" in her TFSA which were not explicitly disallowed but the court rules that they were an "advantage" in certain years and liable to taxation. Swaps were subsequently banned. I'm not sure what a swap is exactly but it's not that someone who is simply making contributions according to the above rules would run afoul of. The CRA from what I understand doesn't care how much money you make in the TFSA, they care how you made it. So if you're logged on to your broker 40 hours a week and trading all day every day they might take the position that you found a way to work a job 40 hours a week and not pay any tax on the money you make, which they would argue is an "advantage," although there are arguments against that. This is not legal advice, just information.
  26. The U.S. Roth IRA. This is a U.S. retirement savings tax shelter that is superficially similar to the TFSA but it has a number of limitations, including lack of cumulative contribution room, no ability for withdrawals to convert into contribution room in the following year, complex rules on who is eligible to contribute, limits on how much you can invest based on your income, income cutoffs on whether you can even use the Roth IRA at all, age limits that govern when and to what extent you can use it, and strict restrictions on reasons to withdraw funds prior to retirement (withdrawals prior to retirement can only be used to pay for private medical insurance, unpaid medical bills, adoption/childbirth expenses, certain educational expenses). The TFSA is totally unlike the Roth IRA in that it has none of these restrictions, therefore, the Roth IRA is not in any reasonable sense a valid comparison. The TFSA was modeled after the U.K. Investment Savings Account, which is the only comparable program to the TFSA.
  27. The UK Investment Savings Account. This is what the TFSA was based off of. Main difference is that the UK uses a 20,000 pound annual contribution allowance, use-it-or-lose-it. There are several different flavours of ISA, and some do have a limited recontribution feature but not to the extent of the TFSA.
  28. Is it smart to overcontribute to buy a really hot stock and just pay the 1% a month overcontribution penalty? If the CRA believes you made the overcontribution deliberately the penalty is 100% of the gains on the overcontribution, meaning, you can keep the overcontribution, or the loss, but the CRA takes the profit.
  29. Speculative stocks-- are they ok? There is no such thing as a "speculative stock." That term is not used by the CRA. Either the stock trades on an approved exchange or it doesn't. So if a really blue chip stock, the most stable company in the world, trades on an exchange that is not approved, you can't buy it in a TFSA. If a really speculative gold mining stock in Busang, Indonesia that has gone through the roof due to reports of enormous amounts of gold, but their geologist somehow just mysteriously fell out of a helicopter into the jungle and maybe there's no gold there at all, but it trades on an approved exchange, it is fine to buy it in a TFSA. Of course the risk of whether it turns out to be a good investment or not, is on you.
Remember, you're working for your money anyway, so if you can get free money from the government -- you should take it! Follow the rules because Canadians have ended up with a tax bill for not understanding the TFSA rules.
Appreciate the feedback everyone. Glad this basic post has been useful for many. The CRA does a good job of explaining TFSAs in detail at https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/cra-arc/formspubs/pub/rc4466/rc4466-19e.pdf

Unrelated but of Interest: The Margin Account

Note: if you are interested in how margin accounts work, I refer you to my post on margin accounts, where I use a straightforward explanation of the math behind margin accounts to try and give readers the confidence that they understand this powerful leveraging tool.

How Margin Loans Work - a Primer

submitted by KhingoBhingo to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]

Is there any reason you SHOULDN'T move all your crypto assets to an interest-bearing wallet?

I've been trading crypto for a while now, buying heavily into BTC when it crashed down near $3k, so the amount in my portfolio is getting high enough to make the potential for interest pretty attractive.
I've been putting half of each paycheck into investments; half of that into crypto-assets; and half of that into USDC. I've been using Coinbase as my exchange, and exporting all of my USDC to my NEXO wallet, as I am drawing 8% interest off of stablecoin assets. However, i recently noticed that I could be drawing 4% interest on BTC as well, if I were to move it into my NEXO wallet.
Thats like... A TON of interest compared to any other interest-bearing account with traditional banks and fiat. So my question: Is this what literally everybody does who holds substantial crypto assets? They purchase on their exchange, then send it to an interest bearing wallet? If not, why doesn't everybody do that? Is there some risk involved that I'm missing?
I mean, I'm getting like $2 per day right now, and it just seems too good to be true to draw such a high interest rate in addition to any appreciation in value the crypto gains. I'm thinking I'm just way behind the game, and this is how everybody else has been doing it for a while!
submitted by Julius__PleaseHer to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Geeq - A serious contender for the most game changing project of 2020.

Recently Posted in the Geeq Trading Channel by a community ambassador.
I'd like to officially welcome all the new people to the Geeq community, this is going to be long but I'd just like to say a few words and get it out of the way. I've talked with (username removed) about the discussions of other projects in this channel, we agreed to let it happen until the official launch of the Geeq token as this is a community trading channel, and it isn’t trading as of yet. In a way it’s important to acknowledge the good and bad about the macro outlook of crypto so people can learn from the mistakes together, and we don’t want to discourage thoughtful and informative dialogue.
(username removed) and I are community members, whatever we do or say may not be used against the Geeq core as of such so please take our views as just personal opinions, we will have many of them lol.
The Why’s?
Why did I invest in Geeq? Why did my initial evaluation increase week on week on the marketcap of Geeq?, before I really looked into Geeq I had a sell price point at $1, this was 9 months ago. Why am I now seeing the bigger picture of the potential behemoth Geeq is? Why is the team willing to work for free for all these years? Why is the marketing team doing this for free? They have a very lucrative business before they joined the wing’s of the Geeq protocol (and they still do). Why is it for free? Why is the team decked with the most experience individuals in their fields?
Why is Ric Asselstine, the gentlemen that helped build Canada’s biggest software company doing $5 billion revenue a year dedicating so many years on Geeq’s protocol?
Why is John P. Conley with all his insane credentials in game theory, mechanism design, mathematical economics, and public theory join the team and do it for free for all these years?
Why is Stephanie So, CDO & Founder of Geeq dedicate all these years working for free for Geeq? She was the first to use machine learning on social science data at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, and recently Dell named her top 4 Influential Women in tech, why is she doing this?
Why is Lun-Shin Yuen working on Geeq for free? He was the THIRD engineer working there, they are now worth $77.23 Billion in market share and doing over $6.7 Billion of revenue a year. Why is he here?
Why is Eric Ball the former treasurer of Oracle between 2005-2015 involved in Geeq? I looked up how well he managed the $60 billion Larry Ellison had, while he was in charge, Larry peaked to the 4th richest person in the world, Mr Ball was managing his money during then, so what does that say?
Why is Ian Smith, a savant and expert in network and OS security and system theory working here for free? He is fluent in 20 coding languages, He helped teach Linux at Nasa, why is this gentlemen here?
Why did Dr Yeap reach out to the Geeq team to join as an Advisor? He has dozens of patents under him that run for decade’s long.
Why Did Kurt Hoppe, the current Director at Google of Product Management in the Android Automotive sector of Google join as an advisor recently? He is a Board member in the Internet of things consortium, Former Global Head of Innovation at General Motors and former Director at LG Electronics Smart Home & Smart TV, why is he wanting to get involved with Geeq?
These are few of my personal opinions. Because they are thinking 100 years ahead, not 1 year ahead. Currently crypto is full of people that are looking to make a quick buck, this isn’t one of them, sure you may make some money but why sell yourself short when you look at the product they have designed, created, protected and about to implement to the world of technology.
It’s the best security in software, BFT tolerance is 99%, Sybil, Wealth and Nation-State proof, money cannot determine the control of the protocol, hash power cannot determine the control of the protocol. This is huge, this isn’t the buzz word, no one gets excited over security, but to me it’s the biggest deal in the technology world, from this point on, anyone who builds on this is inherently protected from future law suits (e.g. hacks losing peoples funds) due to potential corruption in chains, what the ledger says, says as John puts it. It cannot be changed for any sort of benefit to an individual or nation-state, This means it’s appealing to IoT applications such as Smart cars (corrupt the data and you could drive a car off the cliff), Telemetry, streaming payments, peer to peer content, literally anything you can think of, this would be the best platform to do it with.
Micropayments- 1/100th of a cent, streaming and paying per second can now be done due to this.
Anonymous- No point showing everyone’s detail’s such as buying personal goods at a store, no one needs to know this type of data, it’s logical in the way it displays important information and weeds out unnecessary public data.
Trustless- Edge Security, you can see as an individual who is playing by the rules or not.
AMP- Algorithmic Monetary Policy embedded and coded to reduce the risk of sharp drops/sharp pumps, healthy flow.
As stated in the White Paper as an example:
“A 25 node network running at 20 TPS allows 630M transactions per year and creates 630GB of chain data. Transactions cost users $.0001 each and this generates a total of $62k revenue per year. Approximately $1.7k in $GEEQ is paid to each node per year for their validation services. Geeq receives $21k in annual revenue from one such geeqchain instance.” (Ref: Section 7.1). This is ONE example, ONE chain, it does not represent ONE company, it could be ONE function of ONE Company, my point is, this is scalable to the billions of IoT devices, this has no limit of data input, If you are using Geeq in a smart city, it will be doing Billions of transactions a day. Just one example.
In 2017 there was 7 Billion IoT devices, 2019 the devices reached 26.66 Billion, During 2020 it’s expected to be 31 Billion IoT Devices, this is a growing market as you can tell, this is the future, Geeq will capitalize on this.
The list goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on. So since this is a trading channel, this is my opinion as to why this may exceed a lot of peoples price points in the long-term. We have no chart to determine the value of this coin, but what you can value it is on the target market, potential marketshare, the teams credentials, the protocol’s potential, the protection of the protocol (patent).
A lot of people coming in here throwing numbers out without any actual real evidence to back it up, everyone has there own personal opinion on prices, which is fine but please make the most educated guess you can with the information you have as of now, now rethink to yourself what Geeq is doing, and why I’m so bullish.
This is the beginning, since Geeq is built on decentralization, it’s important we act as a community and treat each other with respect, this is a long journey and it’s just starting, this channel should be used to lean on each other and build a very healthy community because this is a very long road, the Geeq team lead by example by showing how much patience they have, they answer the same questions every 30 minutes, I have not seen a TG group that has done this with such respect to random people ( This was a big reason why I went all in). This has the right mixture to be really something big, and I really hope everyone here does their research on Geeq, I’m not technical but I can see what the vision is, what is my price point? How can you value the most powerful team, protocol and vision in crypto? You can’t put a price on a protocol that will be setting the standard.
Website: https://geeq.io
One Pager: https://geeq.io/one-page
White Paper: https://geeq.io/geeq-white-paper-2/
Tokenomics: https://geeq.io/tokenomics/
Team: https://geeq.io/people/
Token Release Date/Time: https://geeq.io/geeq-token-generation-event/
I hope you enjoyed the read and take a look into the project. I genuinely think this is the biggest project of the year with enormous potential. Look at all the shitcoins that take off and then look at this team and the ambitions and development behind it and it will quickly become clear that this is the one hell of a project.
submitted by Magameme to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

COM: $83k Mcap Token That Gives You Control Over Project Decisions (5x Potential)

Two days ago, I posted about Community Token (COM) and encouraged everyone to get in while it was at a low price of $0.10.
Now, it’s trading at double the price and the COM telegram has 113 new members, hungry to take this coin to $1 and beyond- another 4-5x from here.
And here’s why think $1+ is going to happen…and can be life changing for you if you get in now.
You see, with most coins, what ends up happening is the team (and some whales) ends up gets rich while ordinary buyers like you and I get dumped on.
This is because there’s so much that goes on behind the scenes that the public doesn’t know about.
COM is a Token That Gives You A Voice
The Community Token is based on a totally different-yet-proven model because important project decisions are not made by a small team but instead by the community of COM holders.
This means there is full transparency and you also have some control over the future of the project. Rather than being at the whims of a centralized team (or whales) that controls most of the supply and will do sneaky stuff behind closed doors.
And speaking of supply, let’s look at the tokenomics which are among the best I’ve seen in the crypto space.
COM’s Tokenomics (The “Pumpamentals”)
First of all, the supply of COM is deflationary meaning tokens get burned with every transaction. This means by nature, your COM tokens become more valuable over time as the total supply decreases.
You’ve probably heard of AMPL, XAMP, RMPL are all examples of deflation tokens that have done extremely well. Imagine getting into those at the very beginning.
The COM token currently has a total supply of 955,072 and it decreases 1% with each transaction.
- 30% of the tokens are set as reserves, locked for 1 year.
- 20% is in the Uniswap Liquidity pool, and is locked for 1 year.
- 15% is reserved for community development - and these funds will be transferred to a multi-sig wallet meaning a select # of community members must approve of the transaction. This prevents the developer from dumping these tokens himself.
- The developer only has 5% of total supply and you can check Etherscan to verify he hasn’t sold a single cent
- There are only 121 holders right now and ZERO whales - check the token contract to verify for yourself
What Happens If You Just Grab 2 ETH of COM right now?
So that makes the current circulating supply of COM only 525,289 (taking into account the reserved tokens in the multi-sig wallet). At $.0.21 per token (current market price), that’s a market cap of $110,310. Meaning if you just buy just 3 ETH, you get 5389 tokens or almost 1% of the entire supply.
And if we are in a true bull market like myself and other firmly believe, the market cap of almost every single coin is going to skyrocket to face melting levels over the upcoming weeks/months.
This means when the COM project reaches a mere $1M market cap, your 1% of coins will be worth $10,000. If this reaches $10M, that will be $100,000, and so on.
(By the way, the tokenomics are very similar to BOMB token which has an ATH of $15)
Anyway, I know price is always speculative in crypto, but I do want you to see the true potential in this gem that most people are overlooking because it’s not being shilled everywhere (yet).
*A Real Project With A Passionate and Talented Community\*
The facts of the matter is, this is a legitimate project led by a talented and transparent developer. And backed by a passionate community that you’ll love being part of.
So far, COM has only done a ~2X from presale price, and ~3x from it’s bottom. With even the most worthless projects pumping during this DeFi madness, there’s no reason this can’t go another 5x from here - and the best part is, there’s still time for you to join and get in on this ride!
Thanks for reading and as always DYOR!
Official website: https://communitytoken.network/ (This was the original website. A few days after launch, the community decided it was too amateur-looking and now they're completely rebranding for a cleaner look, to appeal those who "judge a book by its cover")
PS- This is probably going to be my final reddit post about COM. Once we have our key community members ready, we're going to launch the next phase of marketing.
PSS. Obviously, don’t buy just because I said so. Look into it for yourself to verify everything I'm saying is true. If you find something different, post a comment below. I truly believe this is a gem in sea of shitcoins, and I just don’t want you to be kicking yourself when you start seeing COM all over Crypto Twitter and being mentioned by YouTube influencers in the upcoming weeks ;)
EDIT: Updated the current circulating supply/token price
submitted by kmg90 to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

My guide to start working online. After doing this for three years, I am on track to make $40,000 this year from it.

I have posted something very similar here a few times, and it usually gets a good amount of attention. I apologize if you have seen it before, but some people haven't and they could use the money. In 2018 I made about 15k from this guide (give or take a few sites). In 2019 it was closer to 25k. This year I am on track to make 40k.
I also want to preface this by saying that this post has refs in it. Some are mine, some are random Redditors, and some don't have one. If that upsets you for some reason, click the link, delete the stuff after .com and submit again and that will take care of it.

Top deals for September 2020

Swagbucks $10-$35 Hulu deal
Right now SB has another deal where you get credits to sign up to Hulu with the $5.99 plan. It may only be $20 or it may be $35 when you check as they seem to change it day to day. Since this deal has new terms, the credits might be paid out immediately or after 32 days. The credits can be used for Amazon GC or PayPal credit (both take a few days to get processed). Not only that, but you can get a $25 Amazon GC for $22 worth of points, so you can make even more. You can cancel the subscription after 8 days, but no sooner so you don't lose the points. So, five minutes of work for the equivalent of $16-$29 and a free month of Hulu.
$50 from SoFi for opening an account and direct depositing
This one will require you to have $500 that you can direct deposit. SoFi Money is a savings account, fee-free, 2% APY annual; so typical bank account. This deal will require you to use your SSN, link a bank account, and do a soft pull with Experian to complete. You just need to create a SoFi Money account through the link, deposit $500 twice to the account, and wait for a few days. After the deposit clears (1-2 business days), SoFi will instantly give you $50 bonus. After you get the $50 bonus you can pull out all money and close the account or keep using it.
Another $50 from SoFi but for stocks
After you get the $50 sign up bonus from SoFi Money, flip it through this link and fund the invest account. Since I (and you now) already had an account, it literally took under 5 minutes to set up and fund the account. Either way you do it, SoFi will give you an additional $50 in free stock of your choice. Keep it and hope it grows, or sell it for the quick $50 profit.
$50 from Chime for opening an account and depositing $200
Pretty much the same exact set up as SoFi. This one will require you to have $200 that you can do without for a few days. You just need to create the Chime account through the link, deposit $200 to the account, and wait for a few days. It says direct deposit only, but this tested and worded with just connecting a bank account and doing the deposit. After the deposit clears (1-2 business days), Chime will instantly give you $50 bonus. After you get the $50 bonus you have to wait until your new debit card arrives and is activated before you can move the money out.
$50 from eToro
This is a crypto trading account. The same deal as the other ones. Fund the account using the ref link and get $50. The wait time on this one is usually around 7 business days.
$10-$120 in crypto for watching videos and answering quiz questions
$10 from Coinbase if you buy / sell $100 or more worth of crypto
This is a crypto trading account. The link takes you to the account signup screen. After you create the account visit coinbase.com/trade and initiate a buy or sell (in case you transferred crypto into Coinbase from another account) of $100 USD or more (or 100 USD equivalent of your domestic currency) within 180 days of opening and you will receive a $10 bonus (or local equivalent). Orders can take up to 4 business days to complete.
Pretty much just watch and answer videos for varying types of crypto. The crypto you earn will get deposited into the wallet you create, which can then be cashed out into USD. Depending on the day, you can earn up to $120 if all free tokens are available.
$10-$40 for signing up with OhmConnect
A great website if you have one of a few utility companies in California, Texas, or Toronto. OhmConnect supports PGE, SCE, SDGE, Smart Meter Texas, and Toronto Hydro. You essentially just connect your utility account, and earn points. You earn $10 after signing up and getting to a status level of Silver (took me like 10 minutes). $10 more if you connect a smart device like NEST.
Several hundred for test driving cars
Pretty easy. Click the link, go through the dealerships, get your code, test drive a car, and get paid. I did this last year and I was in and out on my lunch break. These offers come and go all year, so check frequently.
UNCLAIMED/ABANDONED PROPERTY
States return millions of dollars worth of unclaimed property a year. Unclaimed property typically consists of unclaimed money in accounts that have sat dormant for more than a year. Every state has its own abandoned property site but a good place to start is MissingMoney.com. It’s very simple to search there. If anything comes up, continue the search/filing on your states gov website. Example: California’s is https://ucpi.sco.ca.gov/UCP/Default.aspx. Just cashed a check for $35 from an account I closed years ago.
The following are ref links that I am putting in for a random Redditor or two, just to spread goodwill and try to give back to all of you. I get nothing from these and will be doing this for one or two random people every month. PM me if you want your ref link featured here. The Redditor for September is u/moongains
PERKSY
From Moon: Perksy is a survey app with nice payouts and a fun vibe. I’ve made about $50 on the app with little effort.

Ok. Back to the main post content.

Hey everyone. This is an all-inclusive write-up compiling all of my past posts on how I am making upwards of $1,000 a month through the use of beermoney sites. Beermoney is, according to Urban Dictionary, "Extra money for non-essential payments, available for spending on luxuries, hobbies, or a fresh pint of your favorite draft." I use this definition, because this is (in most cases) not intended to be a primary source of income. This is a way to supplement what you already have. There is no way to know what you will make any given month, so do not count on it. My worst month I only made around $500 and my best I made over $2,000. You can also check out my post on using apps to save money and earn cash back.
As I have stated in my other posts, this is not a definitive list of everything a person can do online by any means and refs are included. Do your own research on the subs I list, use Google, ask other people, and find what works for you. What I talk about works well for me, my family, and my schedule. Below I will include time requirements to make this money, provide a quick recap of the revenue streams that I have found to work, and provide payment proof for what I can.
I personally invest anywhere from 20 to 30 hours a week doing these sites, on top of my day job. Some days I will make $20 all day, and others I will make over $200. I prefer this, as opposed to a second job, because I can pay partial attention to a laptop and 'clock-out' when I want to focus on family or Netflix. This works better for my temperament and preferences.
Tech required: A working laptop, a cellphone (in some cases), an internet connection, and a fairly good amount of patience to learn. If you are in a position where these tools are not available, you can also do many of these from a library.
I put all of this info into an e-book, plus a TON of other stuff that was either written by me, or compiled from others (with their permission). Here is a link to it. If you tried even half of the stuff in the book, you would make your money back in less than a day.
The dollar amounts next to each site are what I made in 2018. 2019 and 2020 were considerably more, but I have been too lazy to update all of these. Anyway, on to the revenue streams:
SwagBucks ($775) Surveys – Majority of countries– This is more of a catch-all for stuff to do when you want to make and save money. You can do surveys, play games, and watch videos to earn points. You can also get cash back from using SB to visit and buy from different stores. You get paid in points which can be used to purchase gift cards or sent directly to PayPal. Each point is the equivalent of $0.01. Usually, SB will have deals where you can get certain gift cards for less. For example, a $20 Amazon gift card for 1800 SB points. The payout can be slow, but if you don’t mind running ads in the background, using a plug-in to save money while you shop, or killing time playing a game, SwagBucks can be a great way to earn $20 a month.
Mturk ($3,142): Small tasks and surveys - US mainly. Confirmed also in Canada, Europe, & Aus. - This is by far the one I spent the most time on and has been the best earner. This site lets humans perform small tasks that robots still cannot do well. It is owned by Amazon. Downside is there are slim pickings on weekends and when colleges are out on vacation. I typically stick to surveys, but once in a while do batch jobs which there are more of. You have to wait a week for your first payout, which will go to an Amazon payment account. You can the get payouts one time per day after that. Approval for mturk can sometimes be a pain in the ass, almost impossible if you are not from the US, but is definitely worth it in my opinion if you can get approved.
Secret shopper US and Secret shopper UK ($485): In-person store evaluation - US and UK only - These links will take you directly to a sign-up page. US version populates with my ref code. Feel free to delete it before signing up, if you want. You will be taken to the app store where you can download the actual app on your phone. Essentially, you go to stores near you that are identified in the app and take pictures or videos of specific items. I like this one because I have the ability to make a few extra bucks if I am already out shopping. The pay for this one averages about $15/hr. Note: I have not tried the UK version, but it was recommended by another Redditor.
Usertesting ($800): Website evaluation - US & maybe select others - This site allows you to review new websites and apps. The pay is usually $10 per recorded test lasting 10-15 minutes. Sometimes the pay is more, but never less. I average a few tests a week. Some weeks I will get a dozen tests, other weeks nothing. This one is great to practice your feedback skills, which open up a lot of other doors. Pay is through PayPal, one week (to the minute) after the test is complete.
Redbubble ([$305]: T-shirt creation - Worldwide - After getting rejected by merch by Amazon, I came here. You design and publish t-shirts, phone cases, and about 20 other mixed products, with each sell netting you a few bucks. They are based in Australia, and do pay-outs once a month on the 15th via PayPal. You do all of the uploading and just wait for people to find it with keywords or searches. Great if you are artistic or know how to use any creative software.
Prolific.ac ($3,500): Based in the UK, this used to be one of my favorites because they pay in Great British Pound (GBP) which is the equivalent to 1.25x the USD. Prolific is similar to Mturk (listed earlier) in that all you do is fill out surveys. Pay is better than Mturk, but the availability of surveys is not as great. In fact, I personally haven't seen a survey in months, but see others get them often. The initial questionnaire you have to fill out is a bit long taking me about 20 minutes, but ensures you qualify for every survey they show you and will never get disqualified for not meeting the demographic. You have to hit £5 before you can cash out, but you get this after a few days of watching for surveys. Leave it open in a tab and check it throughout the day. I wish I could do this one all day because the pay rocks, but I only see a few a day. They pay out in PayPal anytime you request it and have a balance of over £5.
Ebay ($190): Selling goods - Worldwide - Not much explanation needed here. You buy stuff in-person low, and sell online high. Here is a $2.99 beginner's guide dedicated to flipping that covers absolutely everything you need to know (also mine).
PlaytestCloud ($190): Video game testing - Many countries - This is just simple game testing. It is super fun, very quick, and you get to test new games before anyone else. They send you tests for different listed devices, you download the game file, and they record your screen and voice. The only issue I have with this one is that you are only able to test 3-4 games per month, at $9-$11 each. Paid almost immediately after each test via PayPal.
UsabilityHub ($15): App testing - Many countries - This one lets the user take quick one or two minute surveys on your opinion of an app screen. They pay for this averages to about $.10 a minute, so it is nothing spectacular. Just leave it open in another tab and take a quick survey when you hear a new one come available.
UserInterviews ($50): Studies - US & maybe select others - Similar to Respondent, but with less approval when filling out the demographics for each study.
Product Testing ($1,500): Mainly US & some UK/CA - There are places online that will pay you to leave positive/negative reviews for companies or purchase products. This is actually a big business model in China and other S.E.A. countries. Personally, I already know that Amazon reviews, Yelp, BBB, and everything in the middle are at least half fake reviews; so I may as well monetize on it. If this is something that sounds interesting, here is more info.
Reddit subs($2,300): It is super simple to use Reddit as more than a social media tool or news website. Knowing the right subs to subscribe to, and what to look for, can help you make a few extra hundred bucks a month. There are a ton that you can find small or medium jobs on, but I am only going to outline the top four that have worked for me.
/slavelabour: This sub is normally dedicated to doing cheap jobs for people, at cheap rates. I have both had things done for me here, as well as completed a lot of tasks. It may seem daunting at first, with people offering $2 to write an essay (seriously though.. no homework here), but there are gems to be found. Two of my best jobs have been creating meal plans for $60, and finding the name of a book for $80. Cancel that. SL is now power mods that block the decent work and only allow the trash jobs. No longer worth the time. I only leave it up as people ask about it when I don't.
/signupsforpay: Since slave labour does not allow paying people to sign up for websites, this is where to go to make a few bucks with signups. From connecting your gas and electric information, to signing up with Acorns, I have probably made a grand total of $100 here. Nothing overly special, but $100 is $100.
/giftcardexchange: This is one of my favorites, because you can buy and sell all of those gift cards you have/want. Have a $20 gift card from a family member that you will never use? Sell it here for 80-90%. Want to buy Amazon gift cards for less than face value? Get 'em here. I do a lot of buying on Amazon, so this sub has easily saved me hundreds over the course of using it. Caution: Trade carefully.
I know this is a lot of info and a bunch of it is repetitive from my last post, but I wanted to provide as much info as possible for the compiled post. Hope it helps!
submitted by SuperSecretSpare to povertyfinance [link] [comments]

$XTI - XSTAKE a DEFI platform you can yield farm by just holding! Universal Basic Income to holders

My apologies, i got the ticker wrong it is $XTK not $XTI

What is XTake ($XTK)?

Xtake.finance is born as a global DeFi ecosystem based on the XTK governance token. Essentially it is another easy and constant passive income / yield farming token.

So what makes it different?

To be an XTaker you only need register an ETH address and hold the XTK tokens. This means all you need to do in order to stake and yield farm is to just own the token! Different amounts of owned $XTAKE will yield more rewards which are posted below and are rewarded monthly:
- XTAKER | 100.000 - | XTK 5% Yield
- XTAKER | SILVER- 500.000 | XTK 10% Yield
- XTAKER | GOLD - 2.000.000 | XTK 25% Yield
Ideally, Xtaker wants to make this process of yield farming easy and accessible for all and as simple as just purchasing the token. To make this product accessible to all, they are planning on creating a mobile app, making it easy to connect your ETH wallet and see your yield rewards through a dashboard.

But wait can't I just buy it right before the monthly snapshot and get the yield rewards?

The Xtake team has created a smart contract that randomly checks your balance 3 times a day to see if you are holding your Xtake tokens in your wallet. The yield rewards are then collected based on the average of all the snapshots multiplied by the yield reward you are tiered in.

Liquidity Yield Farming?

The main goal of the $Xtake product is to provide the maximum amount of freedom to people using the platform. That is why with this program you won’t need to lock your tokens in Uniswap for a certain time, you are going to be able to add or remove your liquidity whenever you want.
How does it work? (Taken from website)
The system will evaluate all the liquidity provider addresses in Uniswap and make 3 dailly random snapshots at diferent hours to save the balance of the liquidity providers (their addresses). This will allow us to calculate a daily average of the 3 snapshots and so on during 7 days. By the end of each week we will have the weekly liquidity average balance of each liquidity providing address in the pool.
XTK in liquidity:
0 to 499.999 === 2,5% weekly reward related to average balance500.000 to 1.999.999 === 5% weekly reward related to average balance2.000.000 or more === 12,5% weekly reward related to average balance

Are there any drawbacks to this system?

Yes, the people who get in early will profit much more from yield farming than those who get in later. Also the pool of yield farming will eventually be drained after the course of 7 years. Additionally, right now the price of entry for 2,000,000 $XTAKE for the sweet 25% yield reward is 7.5 eth. This can dramatically increase in price as the token grows in value and even a small 2x would make it now cost 15eth to get 25% yield rewards.

Can I trust the team not to rugflip / are tokens locked?

Currently the tokens are locked in unicrypt and the raised ETH is being pooled into the liquidity pool on Uniswap.
The team has been working on this product for 3 months and just finally released it yesterday so you are still relatively early if you are finding this post now.

Other notes / FAQS

- What was the presale price?
It was 0.0010$ / XTK for the public sale and 0.006$ / XTK for the presale (presalers bought into the product in june and there were not many).
- Where is it currently traded?
Currently the only way to buy the token is on UniSwap. (Link provided below as info)
- What is the marketcap?
Market cap at time of post is 300k ~ .0017$ per token
- Is there a place I can go to join the community and ask more questions?
https://t.me/xtakefinance (Where I hang out!)

Closing Notes

I haven't been in many yield farming projects early because I just started trading crypto again last week. However, I think this is an opportunity to get into a project that is new with devs that are working hard and not going to rugflip (They are active on telegram). I personally enjoy the activeness of the community as well! My only complaint is that the website and the whitepaper is full of grammar issues and typos (which makes me reserved on saying how good their coding is). Other than that I am excited to see this project's growth and enjoy the idea of making crypto products easier to understand and accessible for all.

Other Resources

Info: https://uniswap.info/token/0xF96459323030137703483B46fD59A71D712BF0aa
Live Chart: https://www.dextools.io/app/uniswap/pair-explore0x0f426abb00f3069e48e5d00babcf5952e3c92905
Liquidity locked: https://www.unicrypt.network/uniswap-browsepai0x0F426AbB00f3069E48E5D00bAbCf5952E3C92905
Recent AMA: https://medium.com/@BlockTalks/blocktalks-xtake-ama-transcript-b06e1a8d74f5
submitted by bnricherich to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

Day Trading Crypto For Beginners - Hands Free Auto Trading WATCH ME TURN $350 INTO $35,000! 0.1 to 10 Bitcoin Trading Challenge WHAT IF YOU ONLY MADE 1% A DAY TRADING CRYPTO/STOCKS How to Make Up To $1000 Per Day Trading With Best Crypto ... Earn 1 Bitcoin per day! Free Bitcoin 2020

Career day traders use a risk-management method called the 1-percent risk rule, or vary it slightly to fit their trading methods. Adherence to the rule keeps capital losses to a minimum when a trader has an off day or experiences harsh market conditions, while still allowing for great monthly returns or income. Would you like to learn day trading cryptocurrency and make a consistent $500 per day? We often hear about all the money you can make by day trading stocks.But what about crypto day trading?In today’s lesson, you’ll learn how to day trade cryptocurrency using our favorite crypto analysis tools.. Our team at Trading Strategy Guides is lucky to have over 50 years of combined day trading 10 Best Exchange Crypto Platforms 1. Binance. Established: 2017 Trading fees: 0.1%-0.02% 24-h trading volume: $913 104 359. Binance interface. Binance is a great example of what the best crypto trading platform should be. Initially, the resource did not work with fiat funds at all. For example, a coin has a trading volume of $1,000,000, but you see it costs $1,000 per coin. This means only 1000 coins are traded over the 24hr period. Compare this to a coin with the same trading volume but a coin cost of $1 meaning 1,000,000 coins are trading every day. Day Trading Cryptocurrency: What You Need to Know First. In the above section, I briefly discussed what day trading cryptocurrency actually is and some of the crypto trading strategies people use. This section is going to talk about the mental side of trading, which is probably the most important thing to consider. Volatility

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Day Trading Crypto For Beginners - Hands Free Auto Trading

Rules-based Synth Circles trading. Turn $10 into $1 million in 524 trades, INCLUDING LOSSES. ... The Compounding POWER of 1 ITM per day - Duration: 5:56. FxLounge001 5,599 views. 5:56. Day in the ... =====(bitcoin trading app)===== How to Make Up To $1000 Per Day Trading With Best Crypto Trading Bot 2020 - (cryptocurrency trading) #bitcoin trading live #b... Link to join Blockchain Education (Limited Space & Discounts): http://link.blockchaineducation.com.au/mgKa2dN3 Link to join Blockchain Education: http://pxlm... How I Make $1,000s EVERY DAY Trading Crypto Coins - 3 Step Guide For 2018 - Duration: 22:09. Crypto Oracle 262,830 views. 22:09. How I Make 5% Profit Day Trading On Binance - Duration: 13:36. Hey everyone, in this video I show you my AI trading bot and how it makes 1% profit per day. Website : https://wetradehq.com Email : [email protected] #AI #Artificialintelligence #Stockmarket ...

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