In Final Fantasy XIV, the ability to obtain the highest level sellable body piece, the Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear, is directly tied to the ability to complete Wondrous Tails, a weekly log where players attempt to complete nine out of a set of twelve challenges. Each challenge results in a "stamp" being placed on a 4x4 grid, with increased rewards being offered for each time the player creates a complete horizontal, vertical, or diagional line with four stamps. Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear is offered as an option when players connect three lines, the maximum line total resulting from nine stamps on the grid. There have been many writings discussing Wondrous Tails probabilities. This writing advanced upon those before it by revisiting the probability of obtaining three lines simultaneously but then follows by looking into the opportunity costs of doing so, the price of the resulting Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear, and the benefits offered by its sale and consumption.
Table of Contents
Probability of Success
Probability of Success
Defining the liklihood of lining up three rows in Wondrous Tails is multi-step process. There are nine "stamps" which are awarded and subsequently placed on a 4x4 grid. The liklihood of putting a stamp in the correct place requires an examination into the total number of obtainable combinations as well as the total number of winning combinations. It is easier to explain the process by highlighting what Wondrous Tails is not. We will contrast Wondrous Tails with another Final Fantasy XIV staple, the Jumbo Cactpot. The cactpot requires the player to select four numbers, each one being 0-9, as part of a lottery announced every Saturday. Because there are ten possible numbers for each selection, and four numbers to choose, the chance of winning the cacpot can be expressed as: 1 / n^k or 1 / 10^4 = .0001 Given that you are allowed to purchase three cactpot tickets per week, your odds are actually: 3 / 10000 or .0003 In the case of the cactpot, the values are independent; they can repeat. If you choose a nine as your first number, you are not prohibited from choosing nine as your second number (as opposed to many real-life lotteries that only allow a number to be chosen once). Likewise, if the winning numbers of this week’s cactpot are “4321”, there is nothing prohibiting next week’s numbers from being “4321” as well, though the chances of the winning numbers being the same two weeks in a row are diminutively small. 1 / 10000^2 or 1/ 100000000 All of this is to say that the variables are able to repeat. In the case of Wondrous Tails, they cannot. The variables in Wondrous Tails (or WT) are dependent. On a 4x4 grid, if one space is occupied by a token, then another space cannot simultaneously be occupied by another token. Using 1 / n^k is no longer applicable. Using diminishing numbers such as (1 / n^k) * (1 / (n-1)^k) * (1 / (n-2)^k) … to model a space removed after each stamp would also be incomplete because it fails to account for the fact that there are twelve spaces on the board but only nine stamps. The solution is found in combinatorics, specifically the solution is found as a k-combination which, itself, is equal to the binomial coefficient. The formula for a k-combination is:
C(n,k) = n! / k!(n-k)
where there are k distinct objects and n samples. Plugging the numbers for WT in, we are given:
There are 11,440 total stamp arrangements in WT. As with the cactpot, there are multiple opportunities for success with WT. Though you only receive one grid per week, the only requirement is that three rows are made; their orientation, position, or shape is irrelevant. A winning shape on a 4x4 grid can be rotated 90, 180, and 270 degrees as well as mirrored to produce multiple placements of the same shape.. If we examine all of the ways to create three 4-point lines with nine points on a 4x4 grid, we are left with 24 solutions. 3 line wins in Wondrous Tails source Because we have 24 chances for success, our odds are then: 24 / 11440 ≈ 0.21% The pressing question now is, "is it even worth it?"
The first value to consider in this question is the time needed to complete a series of WT. Individual times will differ, but I will use my own for purposes of demonstration. I look for one box that I can unsync repeatedly with second chances (if you run your dailies and/or have newer people in your FC that you help, you should have a problem with too many second chance points in any given week). On any given book, the top row is reserved for Main Scenario dungeons of various levels. This leaves 4x3 slots for various trails, raids, Deep Dungeons, etc. to populate. I will not go into calculating averages for this population, but I can usually guarantee an ARR extreme dungeon that I can unsync quickly. Going for Garuda, King Moggle Mog, or Ramuh are in the 1:30 range for me (and you could surely optimize that number down more). On the worst end, there may be no trials and I end up running Sastasha at 4:45 (this is rare though). I’ll stick with my 90-second number for now. We now have the assumption that I will run WT nine times at 90 seconds per run. Not counting acquisition, turn in, and duty selection, I spend 810 seconds running WT content (or 13.5 minutes). Given that I have a 0.21% chance of achieving three rows on any given week, I will, on average, take 100 / .21 ≈ 476.19 weeks to reach my goal and I will spend 13.5 * 479.19 = 6,428.57 minutes doing so.
These numbers are nice to have, but they still don’t answer the question “is it even worth it?” Provided you’re on FFXIV, and you have 13.5 minutes each week, what’s to say you shouldn’t? In order to find that number, the opportunity cost of pursing WT must be determined. The opportunity cost of any activity is the sum of what other activities are forgone by making that choice. If a person has a dollar to spend on a candy bar or soda, if they choose the soda then the candy bar is their opportunity cost (if they're required to spend that dollar). For the purposes of this evaluation, we’ll ignore estimating intagibles, sunk costs, etc. To determine one’s own opportunity cost, evaluate how much gil could be made on other activities in the same time. For analysis purposes, I will once again use my own results; If I am concentrating on money-making, I can earn around 300,000 on average in an hour. This breaks down into about:
10 minutes of finding a sample of items on the marketboard,
25 minutes of gathering,
15 minutes of crafting,
5 minutes of listing, and
5 minutes of managing the listing against the mouth-breathing asshats that undersell me by a single gil (you know who you are).
Given that 13.5 minutes is 22.5% of an hour, we’ll reduce my earnings per 13.5 minutes to 300000 * .225 = 67,500. It’s not a perfect conversion, but I’ve never approximated my money-making capabilities per 13.5-minute period. Foregoing the 67,500 gil that I could make each week with the 479.19 weeks that I would need to obtain three rows, I find that my opportunity cost is 67500 * 479.19 = 32,345,325. A single piece of Ornate Neo-Ishgardian gear should be a little over 32 million gil. So, we now have an approximation of the item's value; the final question is, “how much can I actually get for it?”
How Much is the Item Worth?
An Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear piece allows five materia slots to be melded to it by default. Without the ornate piece, five slots can still be melded, but the success rate becomes lower for each piece beyond the allowable slots. Further, as the standard Neo-Ishgardian Gear has only two slots, any slot beyond the third must be of a material quality one less than the preceding slots. On an ornate piece, all five slots can be socketed with the highest materia available for that item level. This leaves us with two variables to examine: the average cost of creating a non-ornate piece with max melds and the stat difference between an ornate piece with max melds and a non-ornate piece with max melds. The average price for an Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear piece is 6,464,286 on Malboro as of the time of this writing (August 8, 2020). This is far below the 32,345,325 that we value the item at when contrasted against its cost to produce; this also includes zero markup, or profit, for our time. This low-pricing phenomenon might stem from lack of information regarding the item’s estimated value (unlikely in an entire population) or from the notion that sellers adjust their prices until they find the prevailing rate at which buyers will purchase their goods (that's economics, baby). In this case, it would be a closed-book matter to say that acquiring an item at 6,464,286 / 32,345,325 = 20% of its real value is a steal as a buyer (and ruin as a seller)… but, of course, this assertion also must be challenged. Specifically, the question becomes, “how much benefit will I get from consuming this item?”
The average price for a standard Neo-Ishgardian Gear piece is 73,036 on Malboro at the time of this writing (August 8, 2020). The average price for the “big three” materias (Savage Aim, Savage Might, Heaven’s Eye VIII) is 14,442. The average price for the comparable Materia VII counterparts is 1,980. Melding a Neo-Ishgardian piece with 3x VIII materia and 2x VII materia will product the following success rates:
Successful Meld Chance
Taking averages for each success, here is the estimated gil cost to overmeld the gear to five slots:
Successful Meld Chance
Avg. No. of Attempts
Total Cost for Slot
The performance differences must be taken into consideration as well. Each of the big three provide +60 of their respective stat at the 8th level, and +20 of their stat at the 7th level so the difference is +300 vs + 220 respectively. The costs of purchase and meld each piece is as follows:
The stat bonus of the standard gear is 1,823 for tanks and non-magical DPS and 1,767 for magical DPS and healers. We’ll average it to 1801. The total difference of power between these gears is as follows:
Compared with Price
% Price Increase
% Performance Increase
For a 2,745.6% increase in price, you can take home a 4.95% gain in performance for this item. So, what can be said to the question of “how much benefit will I get from this item?” Only that “it depends”... Most players will not realize a benefit from the increased gear. I would model that increase as the time saved by increased damaged output as a function of gil-making potential, i.e. “How much time will I save by doing extra damage, getting dungeon drops, and selling them for additional gil?” If that amount is greater than 6,536,496-238,072 = 6,298,424, then you should, of course, make the purchase.
Given the probability of obtaining three rows in WT versus the opportunity cost of doing so, it is not worth the pursuit strictly as a method of obtaining Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear to sell. Secondary rewards and benefits may outrank that decision for you. Given the percentage state increase versus the percentage price increase, there are very few players that would recuperate their investment in Ornate Neo-Ishgardian Gear versus overmelded HQ Neo-Ishgardian Gear.
If you've made it this far, you've probably had a few instances where you've thought, "but what about ..." and you're probably onto something. In any case, there are a lot of assumptions and magic numbers at play. Namely, this estimate is predicated upon my own performance and deals only with gil-making. For this reason, I have detailed my calculations so that, if you were so inclined, you could channel your inner healer and adjust. As I was writing this section, I realized that I could just quickly make a calculator inside of the notebook link here, so I have, in fact, adjusted for you. (did I mention that I main WHM?) I've taken the time to list out a few more assumptions, limitations, and thoughts that I didn't have time to work out; feel free to create your own weights and formulas! :D
Statistical outliers: provided you can get three rows ahead of the likelihood of 0.21%, how much time is worth it? At which attempt does profit move to breakeven? A good question, but this document is already too long.
Only Malboro was sampled: I'm lazy. Well, that's not true; I don't like mindless tedium. I don't have the patience to log every transaction on every world over days. If mining MB data wasn't against ToS, I would've aggregated data over worlds and times.
Intangible benefits: What if having the extra 80 points from the ornate meld is what helps you get a first world clear or join a static where you derive a lot of enjoyment? What if you care about prestige? There are only a handful of these things floating around; it certainly sends a wealth statement! In that case, assign values to those intangibles if you want to attempt a comparison. Make sure to factor in your opportunity costs foregone by spending that gil.
I undercut by one gil but I'm not an asshat: you can lie to yourself but not me.
I'm filthy rich and spending millions of gil is no problem, no matter the reason: your fuction of gil and time are probably much higher than mine and would increase the value of the item considerably from a seller standpoint; there are probably few situations where pursuing WT for money would be worth your while. If your were a buyer, then you might arrive at a point where your opportunity costs of purchasing are so low that you derive value from consumption. Most importantly, if you are that rich, are you hiring? I can do lots of things.
Spending the time making gil rather than completing WT would likely not be a one-for-one tradeoff, money-wise. Every item has an aggregate demand curve and, if you spent 6,428 minutes flooding the market with a good (or an array of goods), you will affect supply. Provided supply exceeds demand at a given price point, the price will fall until equilbrium is reached (and marginal revenue equals zero and long-term economic profit equals zero and all those other perfectly-competitive assumptions because people are hard). Pursuing WT is a chance to diversify and sell something very much in demand: Sure, no question about that. If you're hitting the market so hard that a 0.21% success chance represents a worthwhile venture for you, then we are in different places in our game experience.
I enjoy WT and that's got to count for something, right? Me too and that's why I do them. I play a video game to have fun and that's enough of a reason to fill in your stickers if that's what you want to do. This writing deals with efficiencies and probabilities, not life advice (except for the one-gil thing... going on the record pretty strongly about that one).
If I'm already doing these runs as part of my dailies, helping FC members, etc., then doesn't that affect the outcome: yeah, definitely. Your opportunity cost is much lower because you're not trading off time that you would otherwise use to optimize making money.
Using shuffle increases probability and reduces opportunity costs. By how much is a function of how easy it is to obtain second chances for you and how many repeats you use to complete your journal.
What's the opposite of a shitpost? I'm asking for a friend
Which ideological bloc is best positioned to win the 2nd Weltkrieg? A military and geopolitical analysis of Europe Part 2 continued
Part Two See here for revised part one Not only did I hit the word limit, but part 2 alone hits the word limit. So instead of having 80 comments down below I decided to just cut it in half and make two different posts. For part two all I needed to cut off was the tldr and the France section so it's in a comment below. If you upvote one of the comments down below, make sure to upvote the continuation comment as well so it stay at the top, it feeds my karma addiction and makes it easier for others passing through. This part of the analysis will comprise predominantly of predictions based on hypothetical military and industrial capabilities but will also be impacted heavily by the state of the involved nations as of the mods start date. This part will focus much more on France and Germany (who were notably light on words in the first part) and will explain my reasoning for who wins and who loses and will be handled nation by nation. Some of the minor powers will be clumped together as they fulfill largely the same function and have the same motivations. Other minors such as Poland, The Netherlands, and Ireland have a much larger role to play in the war. That said, the Dutch and Belgians won't get their own block here, their industries are small and their armies more so. Their role will be more revolving around their citizenry and geography, which will all come into play in part 3. As for the entente, I know they aren't here. No I didn't forget about them. The 2nd ACW is still going which Canada is busy dealing with, and with Germany's early struggles the entente isn't going to overstretch themselves. They have a role to play, but it will come later. Another important change to Part 2 will be that while it remains mostly analytical, I will also throw in some narrative elements as well. This will allow me to paint a picture of the conflict that would be unfolding in ways that the Hearts of Iron engine does not account for, such as the inner workings of government and military high command. Essentially, the people who are actually fighting the war (or at least the one's in charge of those actually fighting). This will also add flavor and keep it from being monotonous descriptions of troops deployments and army movements. So let us begin shall we? We'll start with the big kid on the block. The German Empire Germany in the KTL timeline is in many ways similar to OTL's France and Britain and in many other ways completely different. The German people have always kept a watchful eye to the east and west, and as such have not fallen into the trap of denial or appeasement. The Reich has always known this day would come, from the moment French revolutionaries stormed the halls of power and brought the 3rd Republic to an end. To start, Germany is the inventor of much of modern military doctrine, squad tactics, spearheads, and rolling barrages all can be traced back to German achievements in the Weltkrieg. Moreso, Germany did not hesitate to adopt entente tactics that proved effective, such as tanks and combined arms warfare. As such the German military in summer of 1939 is more than a match for any in the world. An arsenal of fast, well armed and armored panzer tanks, a fleet of modern aircraft built for everything from air control to strategic bombardment, alongside the largest naval armada in the world are Germany's sword, millions of determined men and women her shield. Germany's industry is second to none, growing fat on the wealth of her colonies and the subjugated states of Europe. The German soldier is well trained, well equipped, and led by the finest commanders in the world, all of whom proved themselves on the battlefields of the Weltkrieg. To supplement all of this, the Kaiser has aggressively pursued autarky since the signing of the Peace with Honor. Germany will never allow another Steckrübenwinter. This is where Germany stands as of July 31st, 1939. The worlds largest navy and airforce in the world, the most talented elite officers, and greater soldiers than any could hope to match. What could they have to fear from the forsaken land of winter or an inevitably doomed socialist system? The Reich's greatest weakness comes from it's diplomatic solitude. While by no means isolated from the rest of world, Germany does find itself lacking friends willing to come to it's defense. This is partially due to the actions of a single man, Kaiser Wilhelm II. The Kaiser is a polarizing figure to put it lightly. He is exceptionally stubborn and arrogant, and thinks he knows best at all times, at least in the field of politics. This is the man that, at 31 years of age, dismissed Otto von Bismarck, one of the best statesmen in human history. Willie can take more than his fair share of the blame for many of Germany's diplomatic issues across the latter half of the 19th century and even more of them in the 20th. Although the events of the Weltkrieg and the subsequent Ludendorff dictatorship have humbled the Kaiser, it is not unimaginable that as war once again comes to Europe, the Kaiser may overreach his abilities, to the detriment of his subjects. Wilhelm for all his faults however, is no Hitler, he knows his place is as monarch, not military mastermind. Nevertheless, the Kaiser and his governments willingness to bully both friends and foes alike has left Germany surrounded and with few friends to turn to. It will take fear of Germany's enemies to bring nations to the Reich's side, something that may not matter in times of war, but if the war is won and peace settles across the land, could make things difficult. The German military, while ostensibly the best in world, is not without it's faults. German high command is bitterly divided between the "New Blood" led by Field Marshall Erich von Manstein and General Heinz Guderian, and the "Old Guard" led by Field Marshall Ruprecht von Bayern following August von Mackensen's sudden withdrawal from public view. While von Bayern advocates for strong infantry assaults supported by armor dispersed amongst the various infantry units, Guderian and his benefactor offer an alternative that Guderian calls "blitzkrieg." Blitzkrieg is a fantastical theory that relies on armored spearheads supported by mobile infantry and aircraft that will cut deep behind enemy lines and lead to vast envelopments of enemy formations. The latter is largely dismissed as childish fantasy amongst the entrenched elite of German high command, but Mansteins 3rd Army group in Belorussia has implemented many of it's ideas. These divides within the general staff are inconsequential in the west however as Germany sits behind the most formidable defensive line in history, the Lundendorff Line, recently reactivated as a response to syndicalist warmongering. The Lundendorff line is an impenetrable array of bunkers, trenches, and other hard fortifications designed to prevent the French menace from ever scratching the paint of the German Empire. And if the lowly French were to try and emulate Germany's sweeping advance through Belgium in the Weltkrief, they will find the full strength of the Heer waiting for them. Now for actual facts and number crunching instead of my flavor text. Germany is relatively simple as they are the established power, think mini America or suped up Nazi Germany. They've had 20 years of colonial dominance and Prussian militarism to ensure they are capable of becoming quite the opponent if given the chance. While not quite a US style sleeping giant, they are still the most powerful economy in Europe by a long shot, even after Black Monday. Speaking of Black Monday, it would hit the German economy hard. As the analysis doesn't just take into account game modifiers and focuses, Black Monday is still very much apart of life in Germany when the war starts, it can't just be ended in 2 years via focus. The German war economy putts along due to necessity (enemies to either side), but the civilian economy is trashed, a trashing that is exacerbated by the fact that Germany keeps military production running. Even with Germany having a much more controlled economy than the US, they couldn't just "fix" BM, just like the US couldn't just "fix" the depression. The effects of BM are mixed, while Germany's more authoritarian system allows military production to continue at an inhibited rate, the civilian economy is crippled. Germany's wartime production would be negatively impacted but not to even close to the extent that Germany would be paralyzed or run out of ammo. The biggest problem would be social in nature. In both OTL and KTL extremism rises during times of hardship. For Germany that means syndicalism and those sympathetic to it. Black Monday and the governments willingness to sacrifice civilian sectors to maintain military production would incense much of the German population, especially in the Rhineland and Elsass. This could lead to serious issues once the war begins in earnest. That said, once the Weltkrieg does begin Germany would experience an economic boom akin to those experienced by the nations of OTL WW2 and everything that entails. Not to mention Germany is fighting for it's survival, that always helps to spur on the people. So essentially Germany is still an industrial and military powerhouse, even with the effects of Black Monday. They carry a big stick, but are ultimately limited by still being just Germany. They only have so many people and factories, many of which are located perilously close to France. While Germany will of course have minor issues maintaining steady contact with it's far flung empire in the fires of war, it's superior navy should be more than enough to ensure stable lines of communication. From behind the impenetrable Ludendorff line, the Reich will outlast it's enemies in the west, just as they did in the first Weltkrieg. As for Russia, it's waves of infantry will crash like water on rock against the banks of the Dnieper and Manstein's armored divisions in Belorussia. Germany has a superior army and industry than it did in OTL WW2, and that army was still able to achieve victory on many occasions against a far superior (to their KTL counterparts) Soviet Union and British Empire. A higher population, larger industrial base, and a superior navy and airforce make Germany the clear favorite on paper, especially when placed alongside it's allies in the now significantly larger Reichspakt. But as OTL Nazi Germany showed, having vast empires and fancy fortification lines only takes you so far. Even so, it will take clever planning on behalf of Russia and the Internationale to overcome Germany's material advantages. But perhaps Germany's greatest weakness, more so than fighting on two fronts, is that it underestimates it's enemies. Russia is seen as a backwater, even more backward and undeveloped than in the 1st Weltkrieg, but unlike in 1914, the Russian people are fighting for a cause (and a vozhd) that they believe in. France is equally scoffed at by Berlin. The nation that has lost twice in the last 80 years and could not defeat Germany in the Weltkrieg with half the world behind them. Germany's dismissive attitude may cost them a great deal when the war comes to their front door. Austria-Hungary The Austro-Hungarian Empire is a far cry from the rotting structure that Germany dragged through the Weltkrieg kicking and screaming. The Empire has risen anew, like a phoenix from the ashes under Kaiser Karl von Hapsburg. The Austro-German relationship on the other hand, has not risen. Following the Weltkrieg Germany treated Austria as a simpleton or a child, a burden on the greatest empire in the world. As the years passed by Austria's so called "brothers" did everything in their power to usurp what millions of Austro-Hungarians fought and died for. When Austria turned to it's old friend to resolve the 1927 Ausgleich, Germany merely threatened the parties into cooperation and stole away half of Austria's sphere as recompense. The Austrian people have not forgotten this treachery, but as storm clouds gather and war becomes an inevitability, will Austria turn it's back on their kin? Or will they take up arms and fight alongside their brothers one last time? On the eve of war the disparate peoples of the empire stand as one for the first time in the proud nation's long history. The military has been rebuilt and redesigned to thrive in the Empire's multi lingual system. Recent experiences pacifying the Serbs and Romanians have given the Austrian high command valuable insight into how best to utilized their forces. Economic revitalization and a cultural boom from the reforms of the 20s and early 30s ensure that while Austria may not be as economically strong as France or Germany, she can hold her own on the world stage. Industrialization, a rebuilt military, and a united people. Austria on the eve of war is in a vastly superior situation to that of 1914. Internal stability is at a historical high and the Hungarians have fallen in line as the syndicalist threat scares Budapest out of it's stubborn hole. The nation has been industrialized to meet the capabilities of it's neighbours, and the military is once again a force to be reckoned with. Although the army is still primarily composed of infantry and the air force is still nascent, Austria has a bright future ahead. A future that is now obscured by darkness to the east and west. As the Austrian Kaiser and his loyal subjects march forth towards an uncertain future, they do so with purpose. And the resolve that Austria will never again be someone else's burden. When French tanks first crossed the German border in the west and Russian boots simultaneously set foot on the west bank of the Dnieper, Austria was content to merely look on. The front on the Po river in Italy was quiet, and the Austrian sphere in the Balkans secure. Austria, just like the rest of the world, was certain that Germany would be more than capable of handling the upstart sydicalists and their Russian allies. But when things did not go as expected, the situation changed. Two months to the day of the wars start, Karl von Hapsburg received a private communique for his eyes only. A letter from none other than the German Kaiser himself. A letter that sent the normally confident and level headed Austrian emperor into a sullen silence. Karl would not emerge for 3 days and 3 nights, taking no food or water. On the morning of the 4th day the Kaiser of the Austro-Hungarian Empire emerged from his study and informed his people. Austria would answer Germany's call. Bulgaria Bulgaria enters the 2nd Weltkrieg in an interesting position. For the first time in the young nation's (this version of it, Bulgaria is obviously far older) history, it is safe. It's enemies lie broken at it's feet and it's people secure within Bulgaria's natural borders. German and Austrian intervention in the 3rd Balkan war turned an uncertain future into a crushing victory that has seen Bulgaria's borders expand ever further. As the Weltkrieg expands to consume all of Europe, Bulgaria is faced with a choice, assist it's old central powers allies on distant battlefields, or consolidate it's gains. The Internationale is far away from the kingdom, and even if the German's were to be defeated, a victorious Russia would surely protect Bulgaria from syndicalist claws. After all, Germany and Austria have hardly been friends to Bulgaria since the end of the Weltkrieg, and recent attempts to open trade with Savinkov's Russia have been a substantial success. Malinov's government may have no love for the Germans but the people are far more divided on the matter. Sofia recognizes the German and Austrian intervention as little more than the two great powers securing their interests in the region; Germany it's oil and Austria it's dominance over it's much smaller rival. Yet the citizenry and more importantly the soldiery see it differently. Men who fought shoulder to shoulder with Germans and Austrians now call upon the Bulgarian government to march to the Reichspakt's aid. After all, it was the Ukrainian 2nd army that broke the Iron Guard siege of Varna. The same army that is now beaten like a drum on the banks of the Dnieper by the Russian bear. Bulgaria's internal position is tumultuous as of summer 1939, and not in an ideal position for another war. Her industry and military are stronger than ever with financial concessions from the former Belgrade pact and annexed territories feeding her booming economy. But while Austro-German intervention spared Bulgaria a protracted war of attrition, she now has strains to contain a greatly expanded nation. Newly annexed land occupied by Greeks, Serbs, and Turks less than pleased to be within the Bulgarian kingdom. Efforts to deport them to their respective nations have already begun but will take time. To send the army to fight the Russians leaves Bulgaria dangerously vulnerable to insurrection. The Austrian puppets in Belgrade as well as Bulgaria's own regent in Athens may whisper sweet words and assurances, but Ferdinand and his government know that given the chance, they will stab their masters in the back without hesitation. And so Bulgaria remains divided as Europe is engulfed in flames, the public's demands that assistance be sent to the Reichspakt growing louder each day, and with Ferdinand's government vehemently opposed to assisting Germany and focused on Bulgarianisation, the Tsar may soon have to make a choice; follow the advice of his ministers that have brought his nation to new heights, or the people that call for a debt of blood to be repaid in kind. Minor nations of the Reichspakt: Kingdom of the the Two Sicilies, the Papal State, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Ireland These nations each have their reasons for siding with Germany in the Weltkrieg, but the one uniting all of them is a fear of German defeat. Each of these nations realize that if the German goliath falls, the new masters of Europe will not leave them be for long. The Finns hope to simply delay the Russians long enough for the Reichpakt to push east once again as they did in the 1st Weltkrieg, while the free Italian states realize that on a Reichspakt defeat that they would not live out the year. The Danes operate in more of a supporting role, unwilling to stand by as the rest of mainland Europe falls to it's ideological foes, yet lacking the strength to fight directly. The Dutch enter the conflict in panic to prevent catastrophe. Ireland's Michael Collins recognizes that the final showdown is about to begin, and the future of Europe will be decided. The aforementioned nations lack significant industrial bases, manpower pools, and armies and thus won't be gone over here for the sake of time and space. They will play roles big and small, and some will be given greater detail in my prediction of how the war would play out, so don't worry if you thought I would leave them with just this. A quick update on the Dutch because I know you guys will ask. The Netherlands is still a monarchy, teeter tottering a bit but still stable enough. The other's don't really matter who is in charge, the result is the same. Sorry Finland fans, I know you wanted me to address their gigantic focus tree and all it's branching paths given their strategic position, the second front they offer against Russia, and their ability to influence the politics of Scandinavia, but I have far more important nations to worry about, like Yemen and Liberia. Note: the puppet states (and de facto puppets) of Austria and Germany are forced to fight and assist their overlord. Serbia, Greece, Romania, the Italian Federation, Belgium, and the other German puppets follow their masters into war. Belgium, Northern Italy, and the eastern Reichspakt members will be detailed in the war analysis. Serbia, Greece and Romania have been damaged to varying degrees by the 3rd Balkan war and will thus play only marginal roles militarily; though Romanian oil will be paramount to the Reichspakt war machine. Quick note for Belgium, I'm using a couple different saves for screenshots so you'll see them if various forms. It doesn't really matter what happens to them, Germany retains control. The Germans wouldn't allow such a strategic location to slip away from them, especially with another war against France on the horizon. The syndicalists in Belgium won't make their move unless France assures them of support, which they can't/won't do until at the earliest 1939 and the loyalists/republicans would rather have a peaceful transfer of power so as to not provoke a German invasion. The Russian State (no link as Savinkov's "New Russia" is near unrecognizable from the beaten dog it was a mere 3 years earlier) Russia will be less flavorful given their "serious" situation. Sorry Russia fans but unfortunately you can't just queue up a shit load of civilian factories and snowball into the late game irl haha. Russian industry was briefly discussed at the beginning of this post, but I will go into a bit more detail here. Without the 5 year plans not only is Russia desperately behind the other western nations in terms of industry and quality of life, but so is it's military. The Russian military of fall 1939 is a twisted parody of the vast (if somewhat underperforming at times) red army of OTL. The Vozhd's armies are vast, but they are nothing more than legions of foot soldiers. The Russian war machine struggles to keep up with the demand for rifles and artillery, let alone production of modern tanks and aircraft. I cannot over exaggerate just how bad Russia's industrial situation is in the KTL. It took Stalin 20 years and 10 million dead Russians to drag Russia kicking and screaming into the 20th century. Without Stalin, this never happens. Russia never increases it's industrial capacity after world war one, if fact, they lose some. Industry is destroyed in the civil war, or lost to the breakaway states. Even with much of the former Empire being reclaimed by wars start, this deficiency still exists. No man on Earth could bring Russia up to par with Austria, let alone Germany, in just 3 years. It is quite literally impossible. The factories the mod has allotted to them are generous in my opinion. The civil war, German reparations, Black Monday, even to a lesser extent the US depression, all of these further compound the struggles of the Russian Republic during the interwar period. Transamur and Mongolia control many of the industrial regions of the far east and large scale development is never really possible due to the corruption and instability of the Kerensky regime. Anything that is built is terribly managed and has miserable efficiency. The Russia that Savinkov (or whomever really, no one would be able to do better) inherits is barely in a position to fight world war ONE let alone the modern combined warfare of the 2nd Weltkrieg. Russia still has ships, planes, and tanks of course, but they are entirely unable to replace them fast enough let alone produce them en masse. Rapid wartime industrialization is possible, but it still takes time. The OTL United States of America did not truly establish what we know as the "Arsenal of Democracy" until 1943/44, and that was with FDR making war preparations as far back as 1937. Russia in this timeline is cartoonishly behind the OTL Soviet Union, which itself barely clung to life against Nazi Germany, which was itself inferior to the KTL German Empire. All this is not to say that Russia is hopeless, far from it. China in the OTL Korean war showed that if enough men are thrown at a technologically superior enemy, you can eventually win (or draw in that case). Germany also finds itself fighting a war on two fronts which limits it's ability to engage the Russians. Most modern German equipment will be needed to fight the equally advanced French, so this cuts Russia some slack. Though remember that Russia buckled and eventually collapsed in the first Weltkrieg, and that was under much more favorable conditions (ie shitty Austria and a non mechanized Germany). I should give Russia fans some good news though. It can't be all bad right? Right. Russia has some big things going for. First among them is numbers, which Russia always has. The Russia State has a population of 150 million (though millions are Ukrainians, many loathe to fight who they see as an invader). Savinkov would also not hesitate to conscript from territories he sees as being rightfully Russian that are occupied as the war drags on. Those ethnic Russians with the Reichspakt longing for unification with their motherland and revenge against Germany will also not necessarily wait for the Vozhd to arrive. Going back to industry, if any of the Russian leaders could industrialize Russia before it's too late, it would be Savinkov. He would be willing to make the sacrifices necessary to get it done. If this were a republic or parliamentary monarchy Russia I'd write them off completely. As they are in this scenario, they might just stand a chance with the Internationale attacking from the west as well. Make no mistake though, Russia has no room for error. It will already cost Russia millions of lives to retake her rightful land, and it will be years before her industry can even hope to contest the Reichspakt's mechanical superiority. To make matters worse, if these rumours out of Germany of large, swift moving armored formations intended to encircle and destroy entire armies are true, the "New Russia" may find it's days numbered. But above all, regardless of their enemies armored and aerial superiority, the Russian people are hard folk. From the golden horde to the Huns (German and Asian lol), Russia has survived them all. Thousands of years pass and empires rise and fall, but the Rus survive through it all. The Russians are done being humiliated by the Germans and treated as inferiors. The people are determined to see this war through to the end, no matter what it takes. Morale in the army and on the home front is higher than it has ever been. Germany will not be kicking an already beat dog this time around. They know what it will cost, and as Russia has proved time and time again throughout history, they will persevere. The bear has awoken, and if the Russian people cannot defeat their foes, their Mother most definitely can. The Iberian Federation Spain finds itself in a similar economic position as OTL Spain, only this time the communists have achieved victory. The war was swift and decisive thanks to an immediate intervention by Spain's syndicalist brothers and sisters in the Commune of France. Thanks to this intervention Spain was not heavily damaged by the fighting against the monarchists. That said, it's still Spain. Spain in the KTL has followed a similar path to that of OTL. The Spanish never truly recovered economically from the French invasion of the peninsula during the Napoleonic wars and the military (and people) were devastated by what in Spain is often simply called "the disaster," known as the Spanish American war to the rest of the world. Spain is an extremely complicated nation in the time span between the Spanish American war and the irl Spanish civil war, I recommend looking into it as it is quite interesting. To keep it simple and to the point, Spain was forced to accept that they were no longer a great power, or even a regional one, and it left a significant impact on the Spanish psyche, crippling their modernization efforts and their military as a whole. This carries through the KTL and into the Iberian Federation of 1939. While dedicated to the syndicalist ideals and the hope that it will create a new future for the Peninsula, the people of Spain are still well behind the rest of Europe. It's military is completely infantry focused with almost no armor or aircraft to speak of, any possessed having been provided by the French and British. The industrial capacity of Spain as of 1936 is near non existent in terms of war manufacturing and this would not be improved by the civil war. The role Spain plays in the 2nd Weltkrieg will be purely geographic and manpower oriented. Aside from the rifle in their hand and the experience garnered in the civil war, everything the Spanish soldier has will be French, likely even his ammunition. The situation of the Iberian Federation is relatively straight forward in this scenario, and unfortunately for the men and women of Spain, it isn't good. The Socialist Republic of Italy The SRI as of 1936 is still rebuilding in the aftermath of the Italian civil war. The entrance of Austria into the conflict dashed any hope of a nationwide syndicalist victory and resulted in the uneasy peace that now rests across the peninsula. With the Austrian sock puppets in Milan and religious fanatics in Rome and Naples, the SRI has many problems to contend with. Italy struggled in the run-up to the first Weltkrieg to industrialize and lift itself to the standards of the other European great powers, an effort that ultimately failed and led to Italy's breakup. The civil war and subsequent fracturing of the nation has only worked to further delay Italy's ascendance to great power status. The last decade has not been bad for the SRI however, the industry damaged or destroyed by the retreating capitalists has been repaired and expanded upon, the military is being modernized along French lines, and the people are eager to liberate their brothers and sisters to the north and south. Still, given it's fragmented state Italy will rely heavily on it's allies to bear the brunt of the coming war. Should Austria and the false "Republic" in Milan join the Germans, the situation for the Internationale in Italy could become difficult. And if war does indeed break out along the Po river once again, it's almost a guarantee that the traitors in the south will join the Reichspakt. With every Frenchmen and Briton needed on the line against Germany, it could prove difficult for the SRI to hold both fronts. The recent liberation of the Spanish people could prove a significant boon however. Their battle hardened troops will prove invaluable against the SRI's non mechanized neighbours and in the strategically defensible border regions. The SRI will ultimately need to reclaim the north and south if it wishes to become a major player in Europe, but if the nation can be united, Italy will have the industry and manpower to fight alongside their syndicalist brothers and sisters as equals. The Union of Britain The Union of Britain in 1936 (and 39) is in an interesting position. Britain's revolution came 6 years after those of Italy and France and was purely economic in cause. As such, the ingrained revanchism of the French and Italian peoples is not present on the British Isles. While the British people certainly have no love for Germany, they are more concerned with economic prosperity and self defense than a glorious crusade across Europe. This brings us to the first and largest issue facing the UoB in 1936. Their land army is shit. While their allies in France and Italy have been preparing for the inevitable 2nd Weltkrieg for years, Britain has been content to look inwards while providing an outward shield of ships and aircraft. The Republican navy and airforce are nothing to scoff at, in fact, the Republican navy is the only force in Europe that could hope to stand against the Kaiserliche Marine. But while the navy and airforce have produced a steady stream of modern equipment and maintained readiness over the years, the ground forces are in no such condition. When the revolution of 1925 broke out, it spread to every corner of British society, including the military. This means that the British military is a democracy, ie. elected officers. This is a bad idea. It's less of an issue (though still questionable) with ships and aircraft, but for the army, its not good. A democratic system of electing officers presents a host of issues, the gravest among these is a lack of discipline. An undisciplined army is no army, it's a band of armed peasants, which is exactly what the UoB army is in 1936. The army is still predominantly composed of militia units operating independently of one another. Officers afraid of falling out of favor with their troops may hesitate to give orders that may seem "unpleasant." No unpleasant orders. In the army. Yeah, bad idea. This also results in issues that include but are not limited to, popularity contests that do not take into account military skill, inability to remove ineffective but popular leaders, dilution of authority between commanders and subordinates, and a command crisis should the elected leaders be killed and no clear chain of command exists. I could go on. This all leads to inconsistency, another trait that is crippling to a modern army. One company may stand strong and perform admirably, the next may be completely incompetent and collapse the entire line because it's commander doesn't know what a flank is. This is not to say that a democratic system lacks benefits, as it allows one to avoid the pitfalls of a traditional command system such as nepotism and archaic doctrine, as well as having much higher morale amongst the regular enlisted. This is a moot point however as with war fast approaching the TUC would undoubtedly take action to conventionalize the army, especially after deciding to commit to the Internationale. Something else I should bring up is that the shortcomings of a democratic command system only affect the divisional level and below. The TUC appoints the chief of staff and high ranking generals, so it's not like the class clown is commanding the 3rd army. Britain has capable commanders, even in the aftermath of the monarchist exodus, but on to how this situation is resolved. Following the 1936 trade congress, changes will be made regardless of which political faction comes to power. French (did not adopt a democratic military due to the "fuck Germany above all else" mentality) military representatives as well as pre revolution commanders would be brought together to whip the British army into shape. This would likely take the form of a massive expansion of the "regulars" and a reformation of the militia into something akin to the OTL and pre revolution territorials. The problem here is that by the time this reform comes, there is only 3 years to implement it. Not to mention the fact that a formalization of the military may not be well received by many within the British ranks, last thing the new high command appointed officers and their French advisers need is their troops yelling "break the chains!" all day, as amusing as that may be. On to the actual wartime capability of the UoB. This is where things are much nicer for them. The UoB has a strong industrial base and significant military capacity, third in Europe behind only Germany and France. The revolution of 1925 was decisive, limiting the damage to the nation's infrastructure. Britain's industry has only reached new heights since the capitalist pigs were ejected from the isle. The economy is running smoothly and it has not fallen behind it's mainland comrades (or enemies) technologically. While still lagging behind the Kaiserliche Marine in size, the Republican navy is a force to be reckoned with, more than capable of defending Britain's shores and the English channel. However, the lack of overseas possessions means that the power projection of the Internationale is somewhat limited. German and Entente naval superiority means that any naval actions outside the north Atlantic must wait until a decisive victory is achieved on the seas much closer to home. Britain's greatest military advantage lies in her aircraft carriers. Like Japan, Canada, and the US, the UoB sees aircraft carriers as the future of naval warfare, not lumbering battleships. This may provide a crucial advantage in the coming conflict as Germany's carriers, while more numerous, are spread out across the world and used in a subsidiary role as scouts and amphibious support. The Republican airforce is in a similar position as the navy, maintained well since the revolution and operating some of the finest aircraft in the world, including the vaunted Supermarine Spitfire. Britain also possess a substantial number of strategic bombers with which to attack her enemies on the mainland. Atop all this is the fact that Britain is the most progressive nation in the world, even when compared to her syndicalist brothers and sisters on the mainland. If the situation were to become dire enough, the women of Britain would not hesitate to take up arms alongside their brothers. What is perhaps Britain's greatest advantage however, is time. The British economy is strong, and given enough time, will develop into a fine tuned machine rivaling any mainland power. Germany must defeat Britain's allies on the mainland before it can even consider a naval invasion of the isles. If this comes to pass however, Britain could find itself in danger of losing everything. After all, there is no way Britain alone could hold against a continental Europe entirely in the claws of Germany. Right?
Hello again everyone, and welcome to another update for Adopt A Prospect. We're getting to the point now where our prospects are growing up from young prospects into grown productive major leaguers. Some ARE having better luck than others with their foray into the big leagues, but with year 3 of our series underway, let's check in on everyone. Missed Any Updates? Follow this link to a Google Docs spreadsheet that has links to all the previous posts for the Adopt a Prospect series. The Players Alex Bandwagon May / June / July Bandwagon recovered from his not-so-great start to the season, and right now is performing about average record-wise, finishing July with a 10-10 record. The ERA took a sharp turn down in May and has steadily continued to come down as the year went on, same with the WHIP. The 10-10 record I think is more based off of what team he's on, as the Phillies are not the greatest team in the MLB, considering that their lineup is in last in the NL in every batting category except home runs. If he was on any other team, I think his record would be much better. Daniel Collins May / June / July My heart goes out to the Maniel, it really does. I want to see all of our prospects succeed and become Hall of Fame caliber players, but the Maniel is just having a rough go at it this season. His ERA nearly doubled in the month of May and while he's working to bring it down, it's not as extreme of a decline as some would've hoped. Now, at the end of the July, it seems that he's being used more in a relievecloser role instead of a starter, picking up his first couple of career saves against the Angels and the Royals. Trey Gordon May / June / July After having a decent start to April, Trey got back to doing what he does best, and that's ending months one game under .500. His ERA spiked in May, but like the others before him, he seems to be steadily bringing it down a bit. He DID have a noteworthy game against Texas in July, though. He pitched a complete game, 5 hit shut out in only 94 pitches. So there's glimmers of hope here and there, he just needs to get it together and actually string together a few good starts in a row and get a streak going. Valentine Grisham May / June / July Like Collins, my heart goes out to Grisham, as well. He showed so much promise in his first year in the majors, but after a 1-5 start to the season, he's been relegated to the Red Sox bullpen and has not made a start since. His time in the bullpen appears to have been helping his statistics, at least, and for a while he was the Red Sox primary closer. I'm hoping that the Red Sox give Grisham a chance to pull it together and give him a couple of more starts, but would not be surprised if he didn't get another chance this season, sadly. Hans Jerkins May / June / July Jerkins got a late start to the season, as he was in Rookie ball to start. The short time he got to play in June, he gave himself a very respectable .333 average, and maintained it through most of July, which was good enough to earn him a promotion to A ball, which he is not enjoying AS much success, but he is only 8 games in. I'll wait for next update to pass judgment about him. Manfred Manfrengenson May / June / July The man with the hardest to spell last name in the league, that I always have to double check, has MASSIVELY improved since we last saw him, raising his batting average almost ONE HUNDRED POINTS and hitting 12 home runs in the month of June alone. His strikeout percentage is way down from last year, and I think I can safely say he is enjoying the most success of our non-pitcher prospects. We could possibly be looking at the birth of someone who will be challenging for Mark McGwire's home run record in just a couple of years. Luke Morricone May / June / July The War Gopher has cooled down from his hot start to the season, but is still proving himself to be quite the starting pitcher, holding the #1 position in the White Sox rotation. The ERA seems to hang around mid to high 3's and the strikeout number is rather impressive, consistently near the top of the leaderboards for it. Oh, and for note, jlh2b , you had mentioned in the last update that you wanted to see if JYD and Morricone would ever face off in the playoffs. Well, I looked into this and while it was not in the playoffs, they did have quite the pitcher's duel in July. You won. Steve Nut May / June / July When we last checked on Steze, he had just gotten dropped to AAA after underperforming in the majors. He goes down to AAA and just starts hitting the cover off the ball, keeping a consistent batting average over .350. The Cubs see the potential they have and call him back up and Steve raises his average, not only above the Mendoza line, but to almost .300. He's also stolen his fair share of bases over his time this year. Sister Ray May / June / July Ray got a late start to the season in A ball, and is doing quite well down there. A .305 average, with almost half of his hits being extra base hits. 11 home runs in 53 games is not a number to sneeze at either, I think we could very well see Ray make the 40 man roster once September hits this year if he keeps hitting like this. James Russell May / June / July Brussell Sprouts has already been a gold glove winner, so we know the defense is there, the question was could he up his hitting? The average has been steadily going up over these months and he has finally gotten that average over .300 in July. The power hasn't shown up yet, only on pace to hit 12 home runs this season, but it's baby steps. First it was the fielding, now it was the average, let's hope the power is next. Jared Sabor May / June / July Dangerboy's production has also been going up these couple of months, he's been a bright spot on a relatively disappointing Rangers squad. With a .286/.339/.437 slash line, he's getting his job done. Like Russell, the power hasn't shown up yet, but he hasn't reached his full potential yet. He's only 19, he's got plenty of his career left ahead of him to pick up the power. Schoonie Singleton May / June / July Schoonie's record has stayed consistently good, finishing up July with a 10-6 record. He ended up missing a couple of starts after getting in a fist fight with Jim Thome, which resulted in 14 game suspensions for both of them. His ERA is still hanging out drastically high, which is a concern that is starting to span multiple seasons. The big highlight for me that he has going for him is his strikeout to walk ratio, which at 3:1 is definitely a high point. But like all the other prospects, he's got the majority of his career still ahead of him. Mattford Stafhew May / June / July Stafhew's hot start in April was cooled by a hamstring strain that sat him out for a couple weeks. His average has come down, which is to be expected after starting with a .352 average, but he is still batting well over .300. He's batting 6th in the order, which confuses me, I figured he'd be more towards the top of the order, seeing as he has the 2nd highest average on the team by 20 points, maybe it's because he doesn't have the speed that they don't want to put him there, but as long as he keeps hitting well, he should keep having a spot in the order. Sean Waxman May / June / July The Waxitaxi has been yo-yo'd by the Giants over these couple of months. Sure his production has dropped a little bit from April, I guess concern raised by his average dropping 35 points between May 1st and July 1st, and that's what caused his demotion to AAA. The Waxitaxi seems like he's at this point where he's too good for AAA, but struggling in the Majors, and it causes this really awkward situation. I think he'll come back up later, the Giants are currently starting Aaron Guiel, whos batting .218 after 50 games, which is way worse than what the Waxitaxi is doing. Fei-Hung Wong May / June / July The Hometown Hero had an interesting couple of months, remaining a starter in May before being relegated to bullpen work in June. One of his starts was a straight clown fiesta of a game with Boston, that ended 22-20. I think you can count on one hand the amount of pitchers post-Deadball Era who gave up 10 runs in a start and did not get pegged with a loss for it, and it was that start that spiked his ERA that I think is the main cause for the bullpen call, seeing as his record wasn't bad. After a month of bullpen work that had it's ups and downs, he returned back to a starting position where he went 2-2. As of this writing, he is back in the bullpen, as the Royals set up man. Jory Young-Davis May / June / July If you had asked me on July 1st, who I thought could be a dark horse for the Cy Young award in the AL, my answer would've been the Junkyard Dog. Through June, he has compiled an 11-2 record, a 2.62 ERA, and while he wasn't the league leader in anything was all over the leaderboard in the top 8 of a few categories. He also had a Pitcher of the Month award under his belt. Unfortunately, he seems to have kind of imploded in July, dropping 4 of his last 5 decisions and inflated his ERA to 3.67, which included a 5 inning, 9 ER start vs Boston, a 4 inning, 6 ER start vs the Twins, and a 4 inning, 5 ER start vs the Mariners. There's still time to turn it around in August and September, and while I think he is out of the running for AL Cy Young at this point, barring a miracle, he can still have a VERY good season. Batting League Leaders May / June / July There's one name who has noticeably been rising on these batting charts, a 23 year old, you may know him, by the name of Vladimir Guerrero. He is posing a legitimate threat at the moment for a batting triple crown, leading the NL in all three triple crown categories. The question is whether or not he'll be able to hold on. Mark McGwire is showing why he's the single season home run king, sitting at the top of the HR leaderboards and on pace for another 66 home run season. (Speaking of, he hit his 400th home run during this three month time span) But just take a look at who's tied for 4th place in Extra Base Hits at the end of July! Pitching League Leaders May / June / July The usual suspects remain on the leaderboard for the most part, by which I mean the main portion of Atlanta's rotation and Hideo Nomo. As mentioned in the Junkyard Dog's update, he does make quite a few appearances across the May and June leaderboards, but kind of falls off in July. Morricone makes the leaderboard consistently for being a strikeout MACHINE, currently 4th in the MLB with 144 as of August 1st. Standings May / June / July The Standings DO see quite a bit of change over these three months, so let's tackle it one division at a time.
AL East: The AL East sees the Yankees take back first place in May and take it back by a wide margin. June and July involve the Blue Jays trying to cut the Yankees lead (which was 8 games on June 1st), and the other teams trying to stay relevant. Blue Jays enter August 5 GB, far but not insurmountable by any means.
AL Central: The AL Central demonstrates the rise and fall of the Detroit Tigers and the Indians dominance. Entering May, the Tigers were in last place. By the end of May, they've climbed to second, which they hold on to through June, before absoluting crapping the bed in July, going 9 games under .500 in that month. This is an absolute runaway of a division, Indians up 11.5 games going into August.
AL West: The AL West is a tale of two separate divisions in the division. The A's and the Angels fighting for first place and the Mariners and Rangers fighting for last place. Though I think with the A's taking over first place in the division I think this is the first time in 3 years I've seen a standings with an AL west where the Angels are NOT in first. I could be wrong on that.
AL Wildcard: August 1st is not too early to be talking about the Wild Card, but oh boy does it look like an AL East team will take it again. The Blue Jays are up 12.5 games on the Angels for the Wild Card spot. Not much else to say here.
NL East: The NL East has gone about how I expected it to go, the Braves in first place, and everyone else just trying to play catch up. They had a 20 game lead on July 1st, and continue to hold said lead.
NL Central: The Central is the division of the Reds and the Astros. The division is important this year, unlike last year, because the wild card is no guarantee for the runner up of this division.
NL West: This is the most exciting division for me, if I'm being honest. The San Diego Padres, who at this point last year were 27 games back of the LA Dodgers, have magically turned their franchise around and are currently sitting at the top of the NL West, with a healthy 4.5 game lead on the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are the disappointment here, who after starting the first month of the season 15-12, have fallen to 15 games below .500.
NL Wildcard: This is shaping up to be a significantly more exciting wild card than the AL side, with the Reds currently tied with the Expos for the right to the spot. The Dodgers are only 1 game back of that, and the Rockies are only 4.5 games back also. This could end up being a very exciting road to October here.
Transactions Ok, so it's no secret, July 31st is the trade deadline and this July was one of the busiest months I've ever seen trade wise in an OOTP month. I'm not gonna be able to list all of them, but let's take a look at some of them, (noting that parenthesis following a players name are star ratings, Overall/Potential):
The Dodgers send 2B Chris Latham (3/3) to the Angels for 3B George Arias (2/2) and RP Matt Morris (3/5)
The Rockies send SS Webster Garrison (1/1, granted batting .318 for the Rockies) to the Cardinals for RP Brian Ford (3/3) and RP Dave Glick (.5/4)
The Dodgers send newly acquired RP Matt Morris (3/5) and SP Pedro Astacio (3/3.5) to the Twins for LF Marty Cordova (3/3)
The Marlins send CL Robb Nen (5/5) to the Brewers for SP Kris Benson (1.5/4), SP Jesus Martinez (1.5/2), RP Cliff Politte (2/2), and SP Brian Meadows (1.5/1.5)
The White Sox trade SP Al Leiter (3/3) and RP Jake Meader (3.5/5) to the Brewers for SS Mark Loretta (2/2) in one of the most one sided trades I think I've seen in some time. -The Baltimore Orioles send SP Kyle Lohse (2.5/4) and RP Jeff Parrett (3.5/3.5) to the Athletics for LF DT Cromer (1.5/1.5). ...Can I retract my last statement about the most one sided trade?
Accomplishments In the realm of player milestones, I present the following:
Randy Myers notches his 300th save
Will Clark gets his 2,000th hit
Juan Gonzalez hits his 300th home run
Mark McGwire hits his 400th home run
So that'll do it for this update. Next update, which will probably be Saturday night or so, not sure yet, depending on if I get another night like this where I have all night to write, will have the end of 1998 and the playoffs. Will Vlad Guerrero win a Triple Crown at 23 years old? Can our struggling prospects can back on the saddle? Can the Montreal Expos ACTUALLY make the playoffs? We'll find out, next time. EDIT: Formatting issue, SECOND EDIT: Forgot one of the formatting issues.
The Bank and UOB Bullion and Futures have not taken any steps to ensure that futures trading is suitable for you and unless the Bank or UOB Bullion and Futures otherwise agrees, the Bank and UOB Bullion and Futures are not acting as your adviser or in any fiduciary capacity in respect of any proposed transaction. UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) is a global investment firm that provides a range of brokerage services, as well as investment banking, wealth management and financial research. Margin Trading. Access extra capital from UTRADE and leverage on your trading position. When you trade securities on margin, the purchased assets form the collateral for the Margin Trading Leveraged trading in major foreign currencies Your Benefits. A wide choice of major foreign currencies, including Asian currencies (trading in Asian currencies is subject to the Bank's prevailing terms and conditions) 24-hour global trading and up-to-the-minute market information; Prompt execution of all your trade instructions Margin Trading Leveraged trading in major foreign currencies You'll enjoy. A wide choice of major foreign currencies, including Asian currencies (trading in Asian currencies is subject to the Bank's prevailing terms and conditions) 24-hour global trading and up-to-the-minute market information; Prompt execution of all your trade instructions MARGIN FINANCING. With our margin financing services, you can now boost your investment power using cash and/or securities as collateral. Open an individual or corporate margin trading account with us for as little as RM10,000 in either cash or approved marginable securities. Usage of UOB Kay Hian Internet Trading constitutes agreement of
Tutorial: How to Margin Trade on Binance 👨🏫 - YouTube
Updated Tutorial here: https://youtu.be/88C3kBKohpM Binance save 10% on fees: https://www.binance.com/en/futures/ref/blockbuilders In this video I am going t... Learn what is Margin Trading in stock markets, how can we do margin trading, and is it good to do margin trading? Know all about Margin Trading in this video... VIDEO 1 Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses.... Your A to Z on margin trading with Binance. Learn everything from opening your account, how to long and short and how to repay margin loans. Subscribe to kee...