How Is Margin Interest Calculated?

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Margin traded and profited 5000+$, Binance are denying margin trading activities and not paying out USDT profit.

Firstly, I issued a ticket and sent my proof and claim to the Ticket support & Live chat support who are refusing to acknowledge my trades. I sent this twice.
I have had a 2.2x margin on XMR and profited during the latest rise in price. Yesterday when I exited my position I did not receive my USDT profit. For an unknown reason/technical glitch my margin trade history / order history is totally blank.
I have collected proof of the margin trading from other pages on Binance, such as interest dashboard of debt/equity ratio, interest rate payments, proof of borrowing and repaying the borrowed XMR together with a screenshot during my margin trading activity.
Binance are still denying that I have been involved in any type of margin trading activity, it's getting really ridiculous.
The support team are circumventing my questions and proof.
If I haven't been involved in margin trading, what have I been paying hourly interest on? Why do I have borrowing & repaying records of XMR if I haven't been involved in Margin trading? Why does my dashboard clearly show that I have in fact margin traded?
I don't know if this is a well thought out scam or the customer support being completely incompetent, either way it's very unsettling and I hope a supervisor can step in and help me resolve it.
I made some twitter posts with attached screenshots of all the evidence: https://twitter.com/FilipJansson19
submitted by ABatHat to binance [link] [comments]

Margin Trading with MacOS Desktop App / Lag and order history update bug

Hi,
I have 3 questions for which I couldn't find a clear and official answer so far, so I think it might be useful for other people trading on Binance :
Q1. Is it normal that I cannot see anything related to Margin Trading in the v1.2.21 Desktop App for Mac OS ? I am not speaking about the iOS App here, but the DESKTOP App.
Q2. Do you plan to update this desktop App one day or did you give up with it and I should only use the web interface or API to trade margin on Binance ?
Q3. What is the best configuration (= which Browser under Mac os) to get the best experience when using your web interface ? The order history has A LOT of bugs and show wrong data 80% of the time because it does not update properly, not mentioning the fact that the whole web interface is super super slow (I have no Add blocker plugIn and use Chrome right now...).
Thank you for your work, and for your help !
Fred
submitted by TheCryptoMBA to BinanceExchange [link] [comments]

Kraken Margin Trading

Kraken Margin Trading
We have added support for tracking Kraken margin trades on CoinTracker. In order to see them, simple press the "sync wallets" button on the wallets page. On the transactions page you can see the full margin history for any margin position by selecting "View margin trade history":
https://preview.redd.it/etbr0y9c5av21.png?width=1855&format=png&auto=webp&s=ceb25552e8aca2dd4f027563cb39d0f681e59612
Margin trade balances are not accounted for on the performance page while the position is open (only accounted for once the position is closed).

If you have any feedback, please let us know. We plan to expand this to other exchanges soon.
submitted by chanfest22 to Cointracker [link] [comments]

Chris Gilbert, CEO of Fox Marble Holdings alongside his business partner Etrur Albani, established the publicly traded marble quarrying company with the specific purpose of operating in Kosovo. Kosovo has a long history of marble processing and offers huge potential with 70%+ projected margins.

Chris Gilbert, CEO of Fox Marble Holdings alongside his business partner Etrur Albani, established the publicly traded marble quarrying company with the specific purpose of operating in Kosovo. Kosovo has a long history of marble processing and offers huge potential with 70%+ projected margins. submitted by TheDitkaDog to kosovo [link] [comments]

Cornering Silver Market

Cornering Silver Market
Would you like to entertain yourself with a story about one of the greatest schemes in the history and, maybe, learn a few plays? This story is about three brave autistic brothers, who almost cornered the entire commodity and how one (not so brave, but shrewd) bank did it without anyone noticing. As in any good fable – there’s a moral and a strategy that you could draw from it.
The year is 1971. Nixon temporarily abolishes gold standard. And every temporary government program is never reversed, as you know. Trading price of gold went sky high: from 270s to 800s in two years or so. Enter Hunt brothers, sons of H. L. Hunt, oil tycoon, one of, if not the, richest man in the world at that time. Hunt family was, what one might describe as, right-wing libertarian and anti-globalist. They believed that Keynesian economics and the US shift to the left in the 60s will lead to the debasement of the US dollar and monetary collapse. Thus, return to the gold or silver standard was the way, as they thought. Allegedly, Hunts also had a feud with Rothschild family and other financial speculators, and were resentful towards the US government for doing nothing to protect their oil assets in Libya, confiscated by Gaddafi. So they started their move against America, alpha-silver bug style.
In 1973 Hunts began buying all the silver they could. And, instead of just speculating futures contracts, they actually took delivery. Initial price was $1.5/oz. Silver was shipped to Switzerland in secretive and costly operations and stored in vaults (brothers feared confiscations – remember, private citizens were still prohibited from owning gold in the US).
The following events are quite vivid and include the efforts to create a cartel similar to OPEC, talks with Iran and Saudi monarchs, pump and dump publicity and large scale purchases of miners. But we will spare the details, except one: Hunts even tried to corner the soy market at the same time. Reminds you how WSB slv gang quickly switched to corn gang. But the soy scheme didn't fly and they focused on silver only. Their efforts pumped the price to almost $50/oz by early 1980. At some point Hunts controlled around 230 million oz of silver and the majority of what was traded.

Hunt brothers laughing at your pump&dump effort

Of course, when you are such a smart ass, you become a target. Chicago exchange officials became very concerned citizens by 1979. They started issuing numerous regulations limiting the amount of market share one can accumulate in one hands. As all American concerned citizens, they had financial incentive to do so: Hunts managed to prove that Chicago exchange board members had short positions against silver. Finally, CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) issued a ruling that basically forced Hunts to liquidate part of their portfolio by February 1980. This sent silver prices down dramatically and brothers started to get margin calls which they could not cover. And so their story ended with bankruptcies and heavy fines for the family. Shortly after, Reagan and Volcker raised interest rates and silver price never recovered to $50/oz ever since.
We skip to the year 2008. Global financial crisis is in full swing. Bear Stearns is royally fucked, as due to all bears. Before the music was over, they mastered paper speculation of futures contracts like no one else. Bear Stearns accumulated world biggest naked short position on silver. What could go wrong? Stonks go up, silver goes down. Until it reversed and silver skyrocketed from $11 to $21. This became one of the margin calls to screw Bear Stearns. JP Morgan is asked by the FED and co. to buy out BS and to save the entire market. Since BS's shorts are now deeply down - JPM gets the whole bank with pennies on a dollar.
But the problem is that JPM themselves have massive naked short position on silver. Combined with BS it will exceed anything permitted by the CFTC. Since Obama administration was in a rush, they push CFTC to grant JPM basically a carte blanche to accumulate any position over the limit for a period of time. Period of time comes due and turns out that JPM not only didn’t trim the shorts significantly – they even bought more shorts at some point. Even with all the fines, it went very much their way, because in 2009 silver dropped. So they pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars.
But come 2011 and silver spiked again, dramatically. JPM, now bleeding cash on shorts, could close short positions, like any of us would do, right? Nope, fuckyall says JPM and starts hedging short futures positions with… physical silver. 'But wouldn’t that be even more control over the commodity?' - you might ask. See, nothing in the rules of CFTC says you can’t do that, because to help cronies speculate with paper futures contracts, made of thin air, CFTC basically started treating physical silver and futures as two different instruments (it’s, actually, even more complicated than that: google difference between physical, eligible, registered and so on).
In the next 9 years JPM becomes the world biggest holder of both short contracts and physical silver. The later they 'loaned' to SLV trust, of which they are custodian. This way upkeep of physical silver, which otherwise would be a liability for hedging, becomes an asset, because we, retards, who own SLV pay the maintenance. People are often confused here, because SLV is issued by Black Rock, not JPM. Well, there is a difference between being an operator of a financial instrument and being a custodian providing backing. Now, to confuse you even more – JPM is one of the major holders of Black Rock itself with 1.6% or sth like that.
By estimates of Theodore Butler, JPM acquired 900 million oz of physical silver since 2011. That’s 4 times more than what Hunts owned. Just shows you, that banks can get a pass with something that even the richest individuals can not. And you have to give it to JPM - their play was very clever. Instead of risking it all on a margin call, they make money on every turn.
As of 2020, JPM still holds both shitton of physical silver and short COMEX contracts. You can call this the most epic straddle of all time. With such mass they can swing prices in any directions and profit from this on any given day. Latest example you’ve seen on the August 11th.
Why am I bothering your poor gambling soul with this wall of text, you might ask? Market makers manipulate the market as they please, what’s new about that? Well, here we come to the conclusions and a strategy. How can a small retard replicate what the big boys are doing?
Conclusions:
  1. There will not be a linear up or down with silver and the swings might be dramatic. The reason being not only the sentiment of investors, but the ease of manipulation that is eligible to big players.
  2. If we believe that speculation will throw the price of silver in all directions – it is unwise to go only long or short on silver, especially on a short term;
What shall we do?
a) Only long expiration dates and calls; no weekly expiration, not even monthly. Ideally – at least half year options;
b) Go long on certain silver stocks. Maybe I’ll do a write up on good silver stocks to buy;
c) Sell covered calls on long positions;
d) Buy 1-3 month puts on your long positions as a hedge;
Now, day trade with those positions: on red days sell your puts and buy back covered calls. On green days – reload puts and sell calls. Repeat until lambo.
P. S.: I gathered these facts from the open sources, since these events were of interest to me. Some facts are intentionally oversimplified, google for more details, there are good reads. And feel free to correct me if you know contradictory facts.
P. P. S.: JPM, plz don’t whack me.
submitted by negovany to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$50k AMD shorting loss in 24 hours

$50k AMD shorting loss in 24 hours
Seeing AMD is ATH on Monday, I became greedy yesterday and sold 200 naked calls expiring 814 at $85/$90 hoping the stock will pull back. Tuesday, AMD surged as a huge surprise, which instantly destroyed my buying power. Fidelity called and I had to liquidate for margin call. So $50k loss in 24 hours.
The lesson learned here
  1. Never sell naked calls (although, in this case, it won't help very much as $90 and $95 calls are much cheaper)
  2. Never use too much of your buying power to sell calls, you will likely get margin called if price move against you.
  3. A black swan event or a sudden price change in a stock could bankrupt you. I felt in a way lucky that AMD didn't got to $90 today and remained at $85.
  4. Don't blind yourself P/E ratio, technical analysis on a trendy and passion stock. These don't seem to matter for growth stock anymore.
  5. Be determined when cutting your loss, this morning, I could have limited my loss to $35k when it dipped to $83, but got greedy again and waited a few more minutes and price bounced back to $85.
I'm very unpleased by this outcome, as it's the biggest lost I've had in my trading career, which also wiped out all my gains over the last two months, I hope this would be a good cautionary tale for others.
Edit: I honestly didn't expect this many comments, so just a few reactions to "what I could have done replies":
  1. Rolling the call - I thought about rolling the call to a higher price at later exp date. The upside of this is I won't lose more money than I already lost, but trading off time and security - and the reasonable moves to roll would be in 8/28 or 9/7 but at that time, who knows if AMD will rise to $95-$100 again giving its upcoming PR and new product releases?
  2. Buy the cover when short is ITM - I thought about buying 200 contracts to cover my position, that will restore some of my buying power to avoid liquidation, but these contracts are really expensive now we're talking about $1.9 at $90 to cover $3 at $85, they won't necessarily limit my loss exposure significantly (the reason I didn't buy the cover in the first place), the best case scenario at 8/14 I might only lose $20k, but AMD can keep going up into next week as market index is going up.
  3. Why I believe AMD will keep going up - even AMD by itself at this point is standing still and moving sideway, the macro is going up and things are getting better than I thought, with Friday's bill potentially passing, market can celebrate another 1-2% tech gain and I would be losing another $20-$30k. I also think the chance for AMD to pull back could happen not this week, but next week or late August - based on prior history, in 2018, 2019 AMD both had two long run up streak of %20-%30 gain for more than 2 weeks before pulling back.
I want to thank you all for your support! I'm probably going to slowly play conservative and trade back these losses over the next two months, wish me luck!

https://preview.redd.it/vta2z8sx87f51.png?width=1466&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c797038cd9e09e5cbaa7fd3e9f6dfafc00be5f5
submitted by bwang29 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Request for advice- Best way to meet 25k PDT requirement- family loan, bank loan, wait?

Hello
I have an account of a small size (smaller than 25k). I have found a strategy that is generating me consistent weekly returns of 8%. I want to scale it up because it involves day trading and I am always hitting the limit amount of 3 day trades per 5 day period. I have found a strategy to avoid this, but it is far from ideal (the strategy is essentially turning the long delta position in to a delta neutral long Vega short theta position, a long straddle).
How should I go about avoiding the issues posed by PDT rule? It got in my way today when I was up 11% and I could not sell because I would have been marked as a PDT 🤬.
I am over 18 (I assume this means I am my own legal entity) and I am planning to ask my parents for a loan if I give them a percentage of my gains. Is this advisable? Who should I talk to so that I understand the legal risks? If not this, is a bank loan possible? Or would it just be best to wait until my account reaches 25k? My account has almost reached 20% of 25k in value.
submitted by InsideAnalysis to options [link] [comments]

The results are in for: LEAST Valuable Player

The NBA league office announced that all awards will be officially based on play PRIOR to the bubble. With that, the cases are locked, the campaigns are closed, and the voting will begin.
While the media may focus on the MVP award and other prestigious honors, reddit has the distinct honor of awarding the LVP. The LEAST Valuable Player. It's a tradition that dates back to 2016-17, when aging Indiana SG Monta Ellis won the inaugural trophy and then promptly disappeared from the NBA forever. In 2017-18, Minnesota SG Jamal Crawford won the (dis)honor with some incredibly bad defensive numbers. Last season, New Orleans SF Solomon Hill won LVP by helping to sink a drowning team and accelerating Anthony Davis' decision to fly the coop.
Before we announce this year's winner, let's review the criteria and caveats:
--- Obviously, the worst players in the league are the ones who sit at the end of the bench and don't get any playing time. However, this award focuses on players who log a decent amount of minutes and consequently affected their team's play the most. Simply put: the more you play, the more damage you can do.
--- And that actual "damage" is important. If you're on a tanking team, no one cares about your poor play; it may even be a positive. I'm also ignoring young players (under 21) who are still developing and can't be expected to be solid players yet.
--- Similarly, we don't want to judge players within the context of their salary any more than the actual MVP does. We also do not weigh in injuries either. For example, the Wizards would have a hard time competing with John Wall on the sidelines (0 games played, $32M in salary), but we want to focus on players' on-court performance instead.
dishonorable mentions
PG Mike Conley, Utah: 28.6 minutes per game, -0.80 RPM
We're using Mike Conley to reiterate that the LVP does NOT factor salary into the equation any more than the MVP does. But if it did, Mike Conley and his $33M salary may be in trouble.
It was a disastrous start to the season for Conley. Playing in a new role as a second fiddle to another guard, he could never find his groove. His assists plummeted (down to 4.3 per game), his free-throw attempts cut in half (from 5.8 to 2.9), and he only shot 42.9% from two-point range. That said, he still shot pretty well from 3 (37.6%) and played OK defense, keeping him off our official ballot.
SF Miles Bridges, Charlotte: 30.7 minutes per game, -2.68 RPM
Like Mike Conley, Miles Bridges seems like a great guy whom you'd hate to criticize. Alas, that's our exercise here. Caught in between positions, Bridges hasn't been able to figure out his rhythm on offense in the NBA either. He hasn't shot well (33% from three, 48.6% from two) and doesn't get to the line enough (2.0 FTA) to make up for it. The advanced stats get even worse from there (although to be fair, they get dragged down by playing in a bad starting lineup.)
Fortunately for him, Bridges is spared by his youth. At 22, he's technically over our "21 year old" threshold, but it still feels unfair to pick on his growing pains as a sophomore. Perhaps in time, he can find a role that can take advantage of his athleticism and talent. But be warned: the clock is ticking. We're taking the kid gloves off soon. Bridges and fellow analytics-allergic Kevin Knox (-7.7 RPM!) will be entering Year 3 next season and will need to step their games up to avoid LVP discussion.
SF Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers: 24.6 minutes per game, -0.74 RPM
Kyle Kuzma can score if need be, but his skill set never made him a natural fit to play third banana to superstars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis. He's not a 3+D player -- he's more of a no-3 (30% this year) no-D player. At the same time, the LVP is about negative impact, and it's hard to find much of consequence here. After all, the Lakers still finished with the # 1 record in the West. Kuzma struggling to find his way is like a tree falling in the woods or a person farting in an empty elevator – ultimately it didn't matter.
SF Andre Iguodala, Memphis/Miami
It feels like ancient history now, but this past offseason, the Memphis Grizzlies acquired Andre Iguodala in a trade (under the presumption he may be dealt again.) According to official reports, Iguodala and the Grizzlies MUTUALLY decided that he wouldn't play for Memphis and wouldn't even report to the team in the meantime. Okay. Fine. We'll go along with that.
Still, that situation leaves a sour taste in the LVP headquarters. Memphis turned out to be better than expected, and could have used an extra rotational player. And even if Iguodala wouldn't have helped much on the court, he could have been a valuable mentor for their young kids. That's the least you can expect for a nice $15M in salary.
our official top 5 LVP ballot
(5) PF Anthony Tolliver (POR, SAC, MEM): 15.6 minutes per game, -3.60 RPM
I've always had a soft spot for the wise ol' owl, Anthony Tolliver. He's reportedly a great teammate and locker room presence. He also started to develop into an effective stretch four towards the end of this career.
But alas, the end of his career may have snuck up on us sooner than we expected. Tolliver disappointed for Minnesota last season, and completely flopped in his return to Portland. At age 34, he doesn't seem to be a viable rotation player anymore. He didn't play quite enough to merit LVP, but he still played more than he should have.
There's a chance Tolliver comes back next year to serve as a veteran mentor and pseudo-assistant coach somewhere, but it's more likely that he retires. If he does, he'll have played for 10 different franchises in his not-so-illustrious but very respectable career.
(4) SG Bryn Forbes, San Antonio: 25.1 minutes per game, -0.95 RPM
The NBA is all about shooting these days, and Bryn Forbes can shoot. He's hit an even 40.0% from three during his NBA career so far, and wasn't too far removed from that this season with 38.8% on 6.0 attempts per game. As a result, his true shooting percentage (57%) was above average. The Spurs lacked spacers, and Forbes fit that bill.
So what's the problem...? Turns out, basketball is more than a halfcourt game. And whenever the ball crosses that pesky midcourt line, Bryn Forbes starts to become a liability.
At only 6'3", Forbes is undersized to play the SG position, which is where the Spurs played him 74% of the time (according to basketball-reference.) Partly due to those athletic limitations, he only registered 0.5 steals per game, and blocked a grand total of 0 shots in his 1579 minutes of action. The advanced stats get ugly; Forbes ranks near the bottom at his position in DRPM, DBPM, all the alphabet formulas that you can cook up.
At the end of the day, LVP is about negative impact, and there's plenty here. Forbes is not a bad player in a vacuum, but he did not help the Spurs this year. In fact, their undersized lineup is a big reason why they're struggling so much on defense (25th in the NBA). As a direct result, they're on track to miss the playoffs for the first time in decades.
(3) SF Mario Hezonja, Portland: 16.3 minutes per game, -2.79 RPM
During the entire run of the Damian Lillard - C.J. McCollum era, Portland has struggled to figure out their wing rotation. That would be tested even more this season, with familiar faces like Moe Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Evan Turner slipping out the door. The trials and tribulations kept coming like Damian Lillard was Job, as injuries ravaged the Blazers' new depth chart. The team didn't need a star to emerge at forward -- but they needed somebody. Anybody.
In theory, that player should have been Mario Hezonja, a former lottery pick and a live body with good athleticism and size at 6'8". Signed this summer for a modest price ($1.7M), Hezonja had the chance to jumpstart his NBA career with a major opportunity on the team. Instead, he flopped like Marcus Smart taking a phantom elbow.
Hezonja's biggest problem is that, at age 25, he still hasn't found his feel on the court. He's not a good shooter (32.8% from three), and doesn't use his athleticism to find his way to the line (1.1 attempts per game.) He was a non-factor (5 PPG, 3 RPG) on a team that desperately needed him to step up. In fact, the Blazers were so desperate for help that they not only signed Carmelo Anthony, but they played him over 32 minutes a game.
Again, we see a real "LVP" candidacy here with a direct effect on the standings. The Blazers' getting a big fat nothing from Hezonja was a major part of their struggle to get to .500 this season.
(2) C Dewayne Dedmon, SAC/ATL: 17.6 minutes per game, -2.51 RPM
We're not supposed to factor in salaries into this equation, but Dewayne Dedmon's situation merits a mention for context. The Sacramento Kings signed the big man to a head-scratching 3-year, $40M deal this summer (seriously.) Clearly, GM Vlade Divac thought his young Kings were only a few veterans away from making the playoffs, bringing in (and over-paying) Dedmon, Cory Joseph, and Trevor Ariza.
Among the three, Dedmon turned out to be the most disappointing for several reasons. He didn't play well to start the season, and got usurped in the rotation by underrated Richaun Holmes. Rather than suck it up, take a deep breath, and take a relaxing dive in his new Scrooge McDuck money pool, Dedmon started to whine and complain and push for a trade. For a team that was struggling, Dedmon's headache became the last thing they needed. Ultimately, they ditched him back to where he came from in Atlanta.
Now, being difficult and being a prima donna isn't enough to get you LVP honors. You have to stink on the court as well. And sure enough, Dedmon started to check those boxes. Billed as a stretch five after hitting some threes in Atlanta, Dedmon lost his shot in the SMF airport baggage claim. He shot only 19.7% from three for the Kings, registering a 47.3% true shooting percentage on the season. His defense is OK, but it's not good enough make up for his poor offensive play. He's not bad enough to get LVP, but he hurt his team this year.
(1) PG Isaiah Thomas, Washington: 23.1 minutes per game, -2.75 RPM
We've awarded three LVP trophies in the past, and a familiar pattern is starting to emerge. The most dangerous players aren't necessarily the bad players; they're the players who used to be good. Because of their prior success, they tend to get overplayed by their coaches and drag their teams down with them.
It wasn't too long ago that Isaiah Thomas found himself in the MVP conversation for the Boston Celtics, as his incredible shotmaking helped make up for any defensive limitations he may have as a 5'9" player. That said, a small player like Thomas is always going to have a thin margin for error to remain a winning player. He needs to be GREAT offensively to make up for his defense. Unfortunately, his offense has not been great since his infamous injury. He can still make shots (hitting 41.3% of his threes), but he's not getting inside the paint and not getting to the free-throw line (1.9 attempts per game.) As a result, his true-shooting percentage lagged to 53.1%, well below league average.
If Isaiah Thomas isn't making scoring efficiently, then what is he doing to help a team win? He's not a great distributor (3.7 assists per game.) He's a very poor rebounder (1.7 per game.) And yes, that defense is still a major problem. According to ESPN's RPM metric, Thomas graded as a -4.2 impact per 100 possessions, the second worst in the league at PG after Trae Young. Basketball-reference lists his "defensive rating" at 121. For comparison's sake, the worst team defense in the league still held teams under 116. (That worst team? The Wizards.)
You can make an argument that there's still a place for Thomas in the NBA as a sparkplug scorer off the bench. Alas, that's not how the Wizards had been using him this season. He started 37 of 40 games for the team. Largely as a result of that, the Wizards' starting lineup was atrocious defensively. Fellow starters like Bradley Beal and Rui Hachimura ranked toward the bottom of their position in defensive metrics as well. When your lineup stinks defensively, a good coach may look in the mirror and say: hey, maybe we need a change here. Sadly, quick reactions are not Scottie Brooks' strong suit. He has the type of sloth-like speed that even frustrate workers at the DMV. The Wizards eventually dumped IT, but it took far too long to make that shift.
To be fair, the Wizards' options at point guard were limited with John Wall injured. Veteran Ish Smith is mediocre right now, and Shabazz Napier arrived late in the season. Still, the point here is: almost any competent point guard (like a Napier) would have helped the Wizards more than Isaiah Thomas. He had become a negative for them. The cold hard truth is that: it's very difficult to win basketball games with Thomas starting. And given that, he is our official LVP.
submitted by ZandrickEllison to nba [link] [comments]

$PSTG: PURE STORAGE for them, PURE TENDIES for you

$PSTG: PURE STORAGE for them, PURE TENDIES for you
This is actually my first DD I've ever posted so fuck you and forgive me if this doesn't work out for you.I've been looking at $PSTG for a while now and if my buying power didn't get so fucked from my decision to buy 8/7 UBER puts, I would have been already all over this play.
What had got me looking into Pure Storage was an unusual options activity alert. I've looked into this company before but didn't entirely understand what they do. Now after looking at them again, I'm still not exactly sure wtf they do....BUT I've gotten a better clue. Basically what I got from my research is that these guys fuck with "all-FLASH data storage solutions (enabling cloud solutions and other low-latency applications where tape/disk storage does not meet the needs)."......and ultimately what this all means to me is that these are the motherfuckers making those stupid fast laser money printers with the rocket ships attached. And that's something I'm interested in.
Now, here is the DailyDick you all degenerates have all been fiending for:
Fundamentally: PureStorage remains one of the few hardware companies in tech that is consistently growing double motherfucking digits, yet remains constantly cucked and neglected by investors (trading at 1.9x EV/Sales).
https://preview.redd.it/ek7ugjsewnf51.png?width=1118&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9c7e72c95e450a105e44223937422d896eeeb21
The 36 Months beta value for PSTG stock is at 1.62. 74% Buy Rating on RH. PSTG has a short float of 7.28% and public float of 243.36M with average trading volume of 3.16M shares. This was trading at around $18 on Wednesday 8/5 when I started writing this and as of right now, it's about $17.33 💸
The company has a market capitalization of ~$4.6 billion. In the last quarter, PSTG reported a ballin'-ass profit of $256.82 million. Pure Storage also saw revenues increase to $367.12 million. IMO, they should rename themselves PURE PROFIT. As of 04-2020, they got the cash monies flowing at $11.32 million . The company’s EBITDA came in at -$62.81 million which compares very fucking well among its dinosaur ass peers like HPE, Dell, IBM and NetApp. Pure Storage keeps taking market share from them old farts while growing the chad-like revenue #s of 33% in F2019, 21% in F2020, and 12% in F1Q21.
Chart of their financial growth since IPO in 2015:
https://preview.redd.it/gwlmy82v4nf51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6508cd5f641da4086b70d8b8007da034e982fd7
At the end of last quarter, Pure Storage had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $1.274B, compared with $1.299B as of Feb 2, 2020. The total Debt to Equity ratio for PSTG is recording at 0.64 and as of 8/6, Long term Debt to Equity ratio is at 0.64.Earning highlights from last quarter:
  • Revenue $367.1 million, up 12% year-over-year
  • Subscription Services revenue $120.2 million, up 37% year-over-year
  • GAAP gross margin 70.0%; non-GAAP gross margin 71.9%
  • GAAP operating loss $(84.9) million; non-GAAP operating loss $(5.4) million
  • Operating cash flow was $35.1 million, up $28.5 million year-over-year
  • Free cash flow was $11.3 million, up $29.0 million year-over-year
  • Total cash and investments of $1.3 billion
I bolded the Subscription Services Revenue bullet because to me that's a big deal. Pure Storage keeps them coming back with products such as Pure-as-a-service and Cloud Block Store and everybody knows that the recurring revenue model is best model. Big ass enterprises buy storage from vendors such as Pure Storage in the cloud to prevent vendor lock-in by the cloud providers. $$$ >!💰<
What are Pure Storage's other revenue drivers? Well these motherfuckers also have the products to address the growth of Cloud storage as well as the products to drive the growth of on-prem storage. For on-prem data center, Pure sells Flash Array to address block storage workloads (for databases and other mission-critical workloads) and FlashBlade for unstructured or file data workloads. On-prem storage revenue is mainly driven by legacy storage array replacement cycle.
https://preview.redd.it/01su6chrwnf51.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e6a705f9392291bc0c3932c815802d9101365e
So far, it seems like Pure Storage's obviously passionate and smart as fuck CEO has been spot on with his prediction of the flash storage sector's direction. Also seems like he's not camera shy either. Pure Storage's "Pure-as-a-Service and Cloud Block Store" unified subscription offerings is fo sho gaining momentum it. This shit is catching on with enterprises, both big and small. COVID-19 increased the acceleration of our digital transformation and the subsequent shift to the cloud. This increased demand in data-centers is going to drastically help Pure Storage's future top and bottom line. To top it off, NAND prices are recovering! (inferred from MU earnings). I expect Pure Storage to get some relief on the pricing front because of this which obviously in turn should improve revenues.
PSTG's numbers look pretty good to me so far but are they a good company overall? Even when scalping and trading, I don't like to fuck with overall shitty companies so I always check for basic things like customer satisfaction, analyst ratings/targets, broad-view industry trends, and hedge fund positioning.. that sort of thing.Pure Storage stands out in all of these fields for me.
https://preview.redd.it/4n0e5nve5of51.png?width=373&format=png&auto=webp&s=495416bb6f5a2dab77f3ac483ca4d9510b39037c
Customers like Dominos Pizza and many others all seem to be happy AF with no issues. I can hardly even find a negative review online. Their products seems to be universally applauded. Gartner and other third party independent analysts also consider Pure Storage's product line-up some of the best in the industry.
The industry average for this sector is a piss poor 65.Pure Storage has a 2020 Net Promoter Score of 86
https://preview.redd.it/3w51io8yvmf51.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f7d06825d0ad9d126216e5069af2f9c3636f86a
Enterprises are upgrading their existing storage infrastructure with newer and more modern data arrays, based on NAND flash. They do this because they're forced to keep up with the increasing speed of business inter-connectivity. This shit is the 5g revolution sort to speak of the corporate business world. Storage demands and needs aren't changing because of the pandemic and isn't changing in the future. The newer storage arrays are smaller, consume less power, are less noisy and do not generate excess heat in the data center and hence do not need to be cooled like the fat fucks at IBM need to be. Flash storage arrays in general are cheaper to operate and are extremely fast, speeding up applications. Pure Storage by all accounts makes the best storage arrays in the industry and continues to grow faster than the old school storage vendors like bitchass NetApp, Dell, HPE and IBM.
Pure Storage’s market share was 12.7% in C1Q20 and was up from 10.1% in the prior year - LIKE A PROPER HIGH GROWTH COMPANY.HPE, NetApp and IBM, like the losers they are, lost market share.According to blocksandfiles.com, AFA vendor market share sizes and shifts are paraphrased below:
  • “Dell EMC – 34.8% (calculated $766m) vs. 33.7% a year ago
  • NetApp – 19.3% at $425m vs. 26.7% a year ago
  • Pure Storage – 12.7% at calculated $279.7m vs. 10.1% a year ago
  • HPE – 8.4% – $185m vs. 10% a year ago"
Pure has been gaining marketshare almost every year since it began selling storage arrays in 2011. Pure Storage is consistently rated the highest for the completeness of vision as this chart shows:
https://preview.redd.it/5agj17gcgnf51.png?width=428&format=png&auto=webp&s=da9c6389baccab85261d6e0f71b3474e84b90d3c
Hedge Funds are on this like flies on shit.
Alliancebernstein L.P. grew its position in Pure Storage by 0.5% in the 4th quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. now owns 104,390 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $1,786,000 after purchasing an additional 560 shares during the last quarter.
Legal & General Group Plc grew its position in Pure Storage by 0.3% in the 1st quarter. Legal & General Group Plc now owns 258,791 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $3,213,000 after purchasing an additional 753 shares during the last quarter.
Sunbelt Securities Inc. acquired a new stake in Pure Storage in the 4th quarter worth $4,106,000.
CENTRAL TRUST Co grew its position in Pure Storage by 79.8% in the 2nd quarter. CENTRAL TRUST Co now owns 3,226 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $56,000 after purchasing an additional 1,432 shares during the last quarter.
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. grew its position in Pure Storage by 203.0% in the 1st quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 2,312 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $28,000 after purchasing an additional 1,549 shares during the last quarter.
Also, everybody's favorite wall street TSLA bull, Cathie Wood has been busy steadily purchasing big lots of PSTG for her ARK ETF funds for a while now...Even going as far as selling TSLA in order to re-balance!
https://preview.redd.it/zjxuakjosnf51.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=f34abdd3b35791eb207d31d72ea0f6fb11beec30
https://preview.redd.it/bkf1uzb2tmf51.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9870ec41cfb4ce468ba61d83f2f8a4151927a4e
Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 78.93% of the company’s stock and it seems like more are piling in every day.
Tons of active options, too -Pretty good volume lately with the spreads looking decent.
Over 5,000 September $20 Calls added just on 8/3 alone 🤔
Order flow helps my thesis here, showing a recent influx of big dick money moving into PSTG.
https://preview.redd.it/liychuhblnf51.png?width=592&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca6a60d54a9eb8bd9e32e0ef70992b8282c29e70
Google Search Trends showing uptick in interest: SPY420 baby
https://preview.redd.it/joo0b9wxinf51.png?width=1710&format=png&auto=webp&s=24eb18f18be18b9b771ff1911c09c5479ba2f1a0
Robinhood Trends showing the YOLO is trending up
https://preview.redd.it/4gk5yjdxmnf51.png?width=1538&format=png&auto=webp&s=76c4b114c133c493c84386d1705f85229f5f7d44
Increased job postings on LinkedIn all across the globe, further supporting the idea that Pure Cloud Adoption is looking strong.
https://preview.redd.it/5zenasprznf51.png?width=1092&format=png&auto=webp&s=a492e227e2208fe89925c9b7fe365634f7ffde6a
Technically: This broke out through down-trend line a couple of days ago and as of right now looks to be pretty oversold. Looks like its found support at the 50 DMA and zooming out , the chart just looks like to me that it's coiling up for a big breakout.
https://preview.redd.it/wxtz8minmnf51.png?width=1208&format=png&auto=webp&s=7baabbd3e8f97dfc8bd0d5bfa512613c2eea4921
These fucking shorts are going to get squeezed out hard. Potential short squeeze coming?
https://preview.redd.it/lh8lp08funf51.png?width=1533&format=png&auto=webp&s=921b6684369e25e94f00ed96a404458028e540c8
**So what's the play?**I'd like to see RSI break out of the downtrend and the divergence between price & momentum ends at some point. If/when RSI breaks out, I want to play this thing aggressively with bullish call calendar spreads....THAT IS IF I HAD SOME FUCKING BUYING POWER (FUCK YOU UBER)....Soooo really what I'll be doing is asking my wife's boyfriend sometime this weekend for a loan. That way on Monday I can buy some $PSTG 9/18 $17.5 & $20 calls at open and YOLO my saddness away for a week.God forbid, I might even buy of those things called "shares" I heard about from /investing if at all possible because in all honesty, I really do feel like this is a good company to hold in a long term growth portfolio.Pure Storage is NOT looking like your average KODK prostitute to flip or scalp and actually more like someone you'd bring home to your dads.
EARNING DATE: 8/25
Pure Storage has a history of beating estimates and rocketing up. Over the last 20 quarters, the company beat revenue 17 quarters by an average of $4.9 million or about 3%. Out of the three times that the company missed on revenues, once was due to supply fuck-ups at one of its distributors and the other two times were due to Average Selling Prices declining faster than the company forecasted. Higher-than-expected ASP declines (due to NAND oversupply) is one of the risks of the storage business...but then again NAND prices look to be recovering now if MU's earning isn't fucking with us and telling us fibs. Big money is forecasting revenue to be around $396 million, essentially flat year-over-year, and EPS of a disrespectful ass penny....Fuck that conservative ass guidance! I think PSTG is going to blow that shit out the water. This chart shows Pure Storage’s past performance and we all know for sure that past performance = future results.....right?
https://preview.redd.it/4xflpezdhnf51.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1660a80a1a1821ef8098791a8cee632e25f1445
My Prediction: After ER8/25, Pure Storage will hit new 52 week highs.$20.50 - $23.50 is my guess. Bold prediction, $27.50+ by the EOY and $50 by December 2021.
tldr: PSTG 9/18 $17.5 & $20 calls

edit: for those that bought into this, I'm in this with you!
Let's pray for a rebound next week. also, Fuck Cisco!
submitted by OnYourSide to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research...

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to trump [link] [comments]

Análisis The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)

Hola! Hace un par de semanas compartí una breve investigación que había hecho sobre American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) que fue relativamente bien recibida. Ahora comparto esta que hice sobre Disney (NYSE:DIS), quizás a alguien le sirva. Por supuesto recibo criticas, sugerencias, puteadas, etc.
-Link análisis AAL: https://www.reddit.com/merval/comments/i7eh5d/an%C3%A1lisis_american_airlines_nasdaqaal/

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) es una compañía multinacional estadounidense dedicada principalmente a los medios de comunicación masivos y a la industria del entretenimiento. Su sede está en Burbank, California, EEUU. La compañía cotiza bajo el ticker DIS, en Nueva York, a un precio de US$ 127,44 al 23/8/2020. Goza de un tamaño prominente, teniendo 223 mil empleados y una capitalización de mercado de 230.292M de dólares. Disney integra el índice Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) desde 1991, y también integra el S&P 100 y el S&P 500.
Evaluando más en detalle el desempeño de la acción, la acción cotiza US$ 127,44 al 23/8/2020. Hace aproximadamente un año, el 26/8/2019 la acción cotizaba a US$ 137,26 lo que representa una caída aproximada del 7,15% anual (TTM). La caída es mas pronunciada YTD, Disney cotizaba US$ 148,2 a principios de año, por lo que al día de hoy la caída seria del 14%. No obstante, la acción a recuperado bastante valor después de la caída pronunciada que sufrió en Febrero-Marzo, llegando a cerrar a US$ 85,76 el 23/3/20 (habiendo subido un 48% desde entonces). Es para destacar que desde dicha caída se vio un significativo incremento en el volumen operado del papel. Mirando brevemente las medias móviles, vemos que la cotización actual esta por encima del promedio de 30 días (US$ 122,73), del de 90 días (US$ 115,98) y de 200 días (US$ 124,12). Con respecto al mercado, al 25/8, desde comienzo de año Disney se desempeñó por debajo del S&P 500 (5,7%), y del DJIA (-2,15%), con desempeño de -12,42% YTD.[1]
La compañía fue fundada en 1923 por los hermanos Walt y Roy Disney. A lo largo de su historia, Disney se consolidó como líder en la industria de animación estadounidense y luego diversificó sus negocios dedicándose a la producción de películas live-action, televisión y parques temáticos. A partir de 1980 Disney creo y adquirió diversas divisiones corporativas, para penetrar en mercados que fueran mas allá de sus marcas insignia orientadas a productos familiares.
Disney es conocida por su división de estudios cinematográficos (The Walt Disney Studios), que incluye Walt Disney Pictures, Walt Disney Animation Studios, Pixar, Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm, 20th Century Studios, Searchlight Pictures y Blue Sky Studios. Otras unidades y segmentos de la compañía son Disney Media Networks; Disney Parks, Experiences and Products y Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer & International. A través de estas unidades, Disney posee y opera canales de televisión como ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, Freeform, FX y National Geographic, así como también venta de publicidad, merchandising y música. También tiene divisiones de producción teatral (Disney Theatrical Group) y posee un grupo de 14 parques temáticos alrededor del mundo.
Es evidente la complejidad de las operaciones de Disney, por lo que vale la pena ir un poco mas a fondo en la composición de los segmentos operativos de Disney, en base al reporte anual de 2019 (mas representativo que el ultimo reporte trimestral en medio de la pandemia), donde encontramos cuatro segmentos relevantes. El primer segmento, denominado “Media Networks”, compuesto principalmente por los canales domésticos de TV, este segmento generó 24.827M US$ de ingresos en 2019 (un 34,7% del total). El segundo segmento es el de “Parks, Experiences and Products”, compuesto por los parques temáticos, resorts y cruceros de las compañías, así como también de las licencias de los nombres, personajes y marcas de la compañía y de los productos de merchandising propios, este segmento reportó 26.225M US$ de ingresos en 2019 (un 36,66% del total, el segmento mas relevante de la compañía). El tercer segmento, es el de “Studio Entertainment” que contiene las operaciones de producción de películas, música y obras de teatro, así como también los servicios de post-produccion. Este segmento reportó 11.127M US$ (un 15,55% del total). El ultimo segmento, quizás el mas interesante es “Direct-to-Consumer & International”, donde además de contener las operaciones internacionales de TV y servicios de distribución de contenido digital como apps y paginas web, se incluyen las unidades de servicios de streaming de Disney, compuestas principalmente por Hulu, ESPN+ y Disney+. Este sector reporto ingresos por 9.349M US$ (un 13,07%, enorme incremento respecto del 5,6% que reportó en 2018).
Respecto a la distribución territorial de las operaciones, es notorio el bagaje del mercado doméstico (EEUU y Canadá) donde concentraron en 2019 el 72,6% de las operaciones. Vale destacar también que hubo un incremento significativo interanual de las operaciones en los mercados de Asia-Pacífico (del 9,3% al 11,2%) y en Latinoamérica y otros mercados (del 3,09% al 4,61%).
En lo que respecta a la política de dividendos de la compañía, encontré registros de pago constante de dividendos desde al menos 1989. El ultimo dividendo fue el 13/12, habiendo pagado $0,88 y arrojando un dividend yield anual de 1,2%. La compañía decidió omitir el dividendo semestral correspondiente al primer semestre de 2020 por la pandemia del COVID-19.[2]
Evaluando un poco la posición financiera de la empresa, a junio de 2020, según el balance presentado, Disney tenia activos corrientes por 41.330M US$ y pasivos corrientes por 30.917M US$, lo que resulta en un working capital (activos corrientes netos, activos corrientes menos pasivos corrientes) de 10.413 US$. El working capital entonces representa el 33,68% de los pasivos corrientes (Con lo cual, el current ratio es de 1,34 apreciándose una mejoría respecto del 0,9 reportado en septiembre 2019). En relación con la deuda de largo plazo, la podemos estimar en 70.052M US$ (borrowings + other long-term liabilities), dado que en septiembre 2019 la cifra era de 51.889M US$, vemos que sufrió un aumento considerable (en el orden del 35%).
Respecto a los flujos de efectivo de Disney, vemos que en lo que va del año fiscal (septiembre 2019-junio 2020) Disney reportó flujo de efectivo por operaciones por 5949M US$, casi lo mismo que reportó para todo el año fiscal 2019 (5984M US$). Viendo la evolución de 10 años del CF de operaciones:

Año (sept-sept) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CF de operaciones (mill. USD) 6578 6994 7966 9452 9780 11385 13136 12343 14295 5984
Dif. Anual % 6,32 13,9 18,65 3,47 16,41 15,38 -6,04 15,81 -58,14
Viendo la evolución en 10 años del flujo de efectivo de operaciones, vemos que en 2019 hubo una drástica reversión de la tendencia al alza que se venia reportando (con un 58,14% de caída interanual). Esto se debe en parte a la política de adquisiciones de la empresa, que vemos reflejado en el flujo de efectivo por inversiones, equivalente en 2019 a -15.096M US$ (muy por encima del promedio de 2010-2018, equivalente a -4179,4M US$).
En lo relativo a las ganancias de la compañía, para el Q2 2020[3] Disney reportó pérdidas por 4721M US$ (contra una ganancia de 1760M US$ para el Q2 2019). La situación se atenúa considerando las cifras para los últimos nueve meses (Q4 2019-Q2 2020), donde Disney totalizó perdidas por 1813M US$. No obstante, la situación del COVID-19 distorsiona nuestro análisis a largo plazo, por lo que para analizar la evolución interanual desde los últimos 10 años, utilizare los datos de los reportes anuales (datando el ultimo de septiembre 2019).

Año (sept-sept) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Income (mill. USD) 3963 4807 5682 6136 7501 8382 9391 8980 12598 11054
Dif. Anual % 21,3 18,2 7,99 22,25 11,75 12,04 -4,38 40,29 -12,26
Como se puede ver en el cuadro, pese al revés sufrido por las obvias complicaciones de la pandemia, el historial de ganancias de Disney es sólido. La compañía tuvo en los últimos 10 años, 2 años de contracción en las ganancias (2017 y 2019), pero en términos generales, las ganancias crecieron a una tasa promedio del 13,02% los últimos 10 años. Para evaluar el crecimiento general estos 10 años, si tomamos el promedio de los primeros 3 años (2010-2012) y el promedio de los últimos 3 (2017-2019), las ganancias de Disney crecieron un 125,8%.
Mirando un poco de ratios, analizaré el EPS (Earnings Per Share) de la acción. Para el Q2 2020, Disney presentó un EPS negativo, de -2,61, contra un 0,98 obtenido en el Q2 2019. Refiriéndonos al desempeño pre-pandemia, el EPS promedio anual de los últimos 5 años fue de 6,3 y el ultimo EPS anual reportado (septiembre 2019) estaba ligeramente por encima, alrededor de 6,68.[4] En lo respectivo al Price/Earning, el P/E (TTM) al valor de la acción del 23/8 es de -208,9. No obstante, si eliminamos la distorsión producto de la pandemia, calculando las ganancias promedio de los últimos 3 años (de acuerdo con los reportes anuales), es de 18,38, lo cual es un valor aceptable dada la coyuntura de los últimos años. En lo que respecta al Price-To-Book (P/B) ratio, el book value a junio 2020, es de 50, por lo que el P/B (siempre al precio del 23/8) es de 2,54, un valor razonable dados los promedios de los sectores en los que Disney tiene incidencia.[5] El ultimo ratio a analizar es Price/Assets (P/E*P/B) que, (usando P/E con promedio de las ganancias de los últimos 3 años) arroja un valor de 46,68.
Sobre el soporte institucional de la compañía, Disney tiene un apoyo considerable, calculado en el 66,42% del flotante en manos de instituciones. Los tenedores líderes son Vanguard con el 8,22%; BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) con el 6,32% y State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) con el 4,19%. Otros tenedores significantes (1-2%) son Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), MorganStanley (NYSE:MS) y Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK).[6]
En lo respectivo al management de Disney, la primera consideración importante es respecto al legendario CEO de la compañía, Robert “Bob” Iger, quien, en febrero de este año, después de posponerlo por años, decidió dar un paso al costado como CEO de la compañía, dejando a cargo al director del segmento de Parques y Resorts, Bob Chapek. Esto duró poco, y en abril Iger volvió a tomar las riendas de la compañía.[7] No obstante, es altamente probable que, una vez estabilizado el panorama Iger retome su frustrado plan de dar un paso al costado.[8] En lo relativo a la compensación, Iger cobró 47.525.560 US$, los executive officers una remuneración promedio de 11.319.422 US$ y el empleado promedio de Disney cobró 52.184 US$.[9]
Una cosa que llama la atención del balance de Disney (septiembre 2019), es el incremento notorio del goodwill (de 31.269M US$ a 80.293M US$, un aumento del 157%). No obstante, este incremento puede deberse a la política de fusiones y adquisiciones de la compañía. Disney viene llevando en los últimos años una política de adquisiciones relativamente agresiva, ideada por el CEO Bob Iger, de las cuales podemos destacar 4 o 5 operaciones clave, la primera de ellas fue la adquisición de Pixar, la famosa empresa de animación que había despegado bajo la conducción de Steve Jobs y Ed Catmull, en 2006 por 7,4MM US$ (de esa adquisición se beneficiaron sacando películas muy exitosas como Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Toy Story 3, etc.). Otra adquisición clave, fue la compra de Marvel en 2009 por 4MM US$ (La última de sus películas Avengers: Endgame, la más taquillera de la historia de Disney, vendió entradas por 3MM US$). En 2012, Disney compró Lucasfilm (histórica productora de Star Wars), por 4,05MM US$, y posteriormente anunció una muy lucrativa tercera trilogía de Star Wars. Por último, en marzo de 2019, Disney concretó la adquisición de 2oth Century Fox, en marzo de 2019, por la extraordinaria cifra de 73MM US$, sus resultados aún están por verse.[10]
Analizar la competencia de Disney es algo trabajoso, dado la variedad de sectores en los que se involucra y la falta de compañías que abarquen tantos sectores como Disney. Considero que la compañía que más se aproxima en cuanto a sus operaciones y al volumen de las mismas es Comcast (NASDAQ:CMSCA), si bien Disney compite con numerosas empresas en numerosos sectores, como podrían ser, por ejemplo Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) o Six Flags (NYSE:SIX) en el negocio de los parques temáticos; ViacomCBS (NYSE:VIAC) o Discovery Communications (NASDAQ:DISCA) en el negocio mediático; así como Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) o Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) en el negocio del streaming, sobre los cuales hablare más adelante. También compite con segmentos de negocios de conglomerados grandes como Sony (NYSE: SNE) o AT&T (NYSE:T).
Observando a Comcast, el acérrimo rival, vemos que la capitalización bursátil es similar, siendo de 198.301M US$ para Comcast y de 234.538M US$ para Disney, así como los empleados, teniendo 190.000 (CMCSA) y 236.000 (DISN). El desempeño de ambas acciones es parejo, en términos generales Comcast tuvo mejor performance, sobre todo YTD (-3,47% contra -10,26%). En los márgenes y ratios también gana Comcast, supera ampliamente en gross margin (TTM) a Disney, con 56,78% contra 27,95% y en net margin (TTM) con 10,91% frente a un pobre -1,91%. El EPS (TTM) da 2,53 para Comcast contra -0,6 para Disney. Consecuentemente, Comcast pudo mantener un P/E positivo de 17,56.
Si bien los números parecen positivos en la comparación para el lado de Comcast, me parece relevante destacar que lo mismo que fue su mayor ventaja comparativa (la composición de sus segmentos operativos), puede ser lo que la haga perder en la comparación a futuro, dada la absoluta supremacía que tiene la operatoria relacionada con la televisión, así como la falta de un segmento de negocios dedicado al streaming de video (sobre el cual también me referiré mas adelante).[11]
Para analizar el futuro, creo que es relevante hacer unas breves conclusiones sobre la actualidad. En primer lugar, los segmentos operativos mas afectados fueron el segmento de parques temáticos, resorts, etc. y el segmento de los estudios cinematográficos con lo cual los ingresos de Disney este último trimestre quedaron a cargo, principalmente, de los canales de TV (que sufrieron una breve baja del 2%) y de los servicios de streaming.
Empezando por los sectores más afectados, respecto a la producción fílmica (Studio Entertainment), me parece que la situación no es crítica, claramente la situación de la pandemia redujo fuertemente los ingresos del sector (al haberse reducido lógicamente la asistencia a salas de cine). No obstante, el manejo del sector viene siendo exitoso hace años (en los últimos 2 años lanzaron 3 de las 4 películas más taquilleras de la historia de la compañía, Endgame, Infinity War, y el live-action de El Rey León), y no hay indicios de que esto vaya a cambiar en el futuro (hay un esquema de estrenos futuros interesante).[12]
En lo que respecta a los parques, las perspectivas no son tan buenas. La caída para el Q2 2020 fue del 85% en relación al Q2 2019. Es evidente que al haber una cuestión sanitaria de por medio, el turismo va a ser uno de los sectores mas afectados, habiendo sufrido una caída increíble en la primera mitad del año. [13] Actualmente, la actividad comercial de los parques temáticos está empezando a reanudarse, habiendo reabierto las operaciones en Walt Disney World en Florida, y estando a la espera de reabrir Disneyland en California, dada la incertidumbre de la pandemia.[14] No obstante, la recuperación fue peor de lo esperado y a partir de Septiembre Walt Disney World recortará los horarios de sus parques.[15] Asimismo, comparativamente, el desempeño de Universal Studios (propiedad de Comcast), parece ser mejor que el de Disney en esta reapertura.[16] No obstante, es importante destacar el carácter de líder absoluto de Disney en este sector,[17] con una competencia que difícilmente pueda igualar su posición, con lo cual si bien el desempeño en el corto plazo puede ser inferior al de la competencia, es altamente probable que recupere su posición dominante en el mediano-largo plazo.
Es interesante ver, en tercer lugar, el segmento “Media Networks” que consiste principalmente en los canales de TV que Disney posee. Este sector no tuvo una caída significante (solo del 2% para el Q2 2020 en relacion al Q2 2019) en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo, es evidente que la tendencia del sector es a desaparecer. Las encuestas y reportes muestran un lento descenso año tras año de la audiencia, tanto de TV en vivo, TV diferida y radio.[18] Con lo cual, a largo plazo, es previsible que este segmento sufra una disminución considerable en su volumen de operaciones.
También es previsible (y así lo reflejan las encuestas), que el reemplazo de la TV tradicional sea protagonizado por los servicios de video streaming (VOD), es decir, por las operaciones del cuarto segmento (Direct-to-Consumer). Disney tiene hoy 3 servicios de streaming, Hulu, ESPN+, y Disney+ (ofrece los tres en un bundle que cuesta US$ 12,99). Como ya dijimos, el incremento de los ingresos por estos servicios durante el FY 2019 fue significante. Veamos la evolución de los subscriptores a estos servicios en lo que va del FY 2020 (es decir, Q4 2019, Q1 2020 y Q2 2020).
Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Hulu 30,4M 32,1M (+5,6%) 35,5M (+10,6%)
ESPN+ 6,6M 7,9M (+19,7%) 8,5M (+7,6%)
Disney+ 26,5M 33,5M (+26,4%) 57,5M (+71,6%)
Como se puede apreciar, el crecimiento es destacable, sobre todo de Disney+. Yendo producto por producto, cuesta encontrar competidores comparables con ESPN+, con lo cual Disney no tiene mucha competencia. Por su parte Hulu y Disney + son complementarios, la diferencia entre uno y otro radica principalmente en el catálogo (el de Hulu es un poco más ecléctico, el de D+ se centra principalmente en contenidos de marcas propias de Disney), así como también pequeñas características de Hulu que lo diferencian de otros servicios de streaming (incluyendo una versión alternativa de suscripción que incluye TV en directo). Estos dos servicios si se enfrentan a una feroz competencia, participando de la contienda denominada “streaming war” con gigantes como Netflix o Amazon Prime Video.
En ese orden, mientras Netflix tiene 193 millones de subscriptores,[19] y Amazon ostenta un numero similar o superior (habiendo ganado mas de 100M de subscriptores en un año), [20] Disney tiene solo 93 millones entre Disney+ y Hulu (nada mal, considerando que Disney+ está en su primer año de vida). Mirando hacia adelante es posible que el servicio que ofrece Disney expanda su base de subscriptores, así como también es muy probable que la competencia se recrudezca (incluyendo la incidencia de otros servicios como Apple TV+). En ese contexto, el principal motivo para pensar que Disney podría ganar la “guerra” los próximos años podría ser el amplísimo catálogo de licencias de personajes, series, y películas que posee el conglomerado (Star Wars, Los Simpson, Marvel y todos sus superhéroes, por solo mencionar algunos), que podrían tener muchísimo mas peso que las producciones originales de sus competidores. Por otro lado, el servicio de Amazon, por ejemplo, resulta mas atractivo en cuanto a pricing, porque le es ofrecido como un beneficio a todos los que cuentan con una subscripción de Amazon Prime)
A forma de conclusión, es difícil imaginar un futuro adverso a largo plazo para Disney. Sin embargo, su desempeño en el corto-mediano plazo dependerá de varios factores (quizás valga la pena analizar Comcast para el corto-mediano plazo, para el largo parece ser una desventaja fatal el hecho de que no estén compitiendo fuerte en la guerra por el streaming), en mi opinión, principalmente de la reactivación del turismo (tanto domestico como internacional) así como del desempeño de sus servicios de streaming (y el desempeño de sus competidores).
Fuentes
-Forms 10-K y 10-Q, principalmente los últimos, toda la información esta en https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/
-Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS
-Otras fuentes, especificadas en los footnotes

[1] Datos en base a gráficos de https://www.tradingview.com/chart/
[2] Datos de https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/dividend-yield-history y https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/dis/dividend-history
[3] El año fiscal de Disney comienza en septiembre, por lo que los reportes de ellos (y el orden de los trimestres del año fiscal) se presentan en consecuencia. No obstante, cada vez que me refiera a un determinado trimestre o quarter, lo hago en base al año calendario.
[4] En base a datos de los filings ante la SEC y de https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/shares-outstanding
[5] En base a una comparación con datos de https://siblisresearch.com/data/price-to-book-secto
[6] Información de https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/holders?p=DIS
[7] Información de https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/business/media/disney-ceo-coronavirus.html
[8] Si se quiere mas insight sobre Bob Iger, es recomendable la biografía de Steve Jobs que hizo Walter Isaacson
[9] Datos del proxy statement de 2020 https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/the_walt_disney_company/SEC/sec-show.aspx?FilingId=13852150&Cik=0001744489&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1
[10] Ver https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/bob-iger-forever-changed-disney-with-4-key-acquisitions.html , https://money.cnn.com/2006/01/24/news/companies/disney_pixar_deal/ , https://money.cnn.com/2009/08/31/news/companies/disney_marvel/ , https://www.bbc.com/news/business-20146942 , https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/theatrical-distributors/walt-disney entre otros
[11] Comparaciones con el screener de TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/screene
[12] Ver https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/upcoming-disney-movies/
[13]Estadísticas del sector en: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/tourist-arrivals
[14] Ver https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/experience/america/theme-parks/2020/08/10/disneyland-california-theme-parks-left-limbo-covid-19-surge/3319886001/
[15] Ver https://deadline.com/2020/08/walt-disney-world-cut-hours-september-1203008260/
[16] Ver https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/universal-sees-more-visitors-than-disney-amid-coronavirus-report
[17] Ver https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/05/23/the-worlds-most-popular-theme-parks-in-2018-infographic/#7c2354e577ac , https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/most-popular-theme-parks-world-2018/index.html , https://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_268_653730_180517.pdf
[18] Ver https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/report/2020/the-nielsen-total-audience-report-august-2020/
[19] Form 10-Q Q2 2020 Netflix: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001065280/bcff7d52-7a7d-4e0c-8265-4b6860929fb1.pdf
[20] Ver https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercsathy/2020/01/31/amazon-prime-video-the-quiet-ominous-streaming-force/#6abbe5e41f1a
submitted by menem95 to merval [link] [comments]

ANALysis…..

So, I said I would write a post on this, here it is. The title was partly to get you interested and partly a little cheeky throwback to the bad old days when u/plucky26 went off meds…
Anyhow, this is a longish post about FA and TA so scroll to the TLDR if reading isn’t your thing, or ignore it. Or if you know more about it than me put a comment in…
FA: FA attempts to measure the intrinsic/inherent value of a stonk. You can do this a lot of ways but what your working out is whether the SP represents undeover value or fair value. A lot goes into FA, but if you want a basic cheat sheet then here it is: - What does the company do?
These are the 6 basic questions you need to answer when trying to arrive at a conclusion. So, how do we get answers?
Reading mutha fuckers, reading……
You need to read and understand the product. That’s the answer to question 1. What do these fucks actually do, does anyone care, doe they make tendies?
The answer to question 2 is probably the most undervalued thing in FA IMHO. People, more than products, leave a legacy they transport form place to place. DO NOT DISREGARD THIS STEP…
If old mate is about to get bent over by the Feds for embezzlement, or his wife’s BF has filed a claim against him for watching them through the window, or if he has bankrupted the last 6 places he went then this will impact the SP once its out.
Working out where they are heading runs parallel to the SP more than you might think. The market, in a broader context, is future based. There isn’t a shortcut around this step, its reading, reading reading bitches….
Although Stonk history tells you a story, its more useful for seeing what they have come up against in the past and how the SP reacted to it. What made it Dip, what made it rocket? What is the ROI? And more, all this historical shit gives you a template but not a guaranteed direction.
Question 5 and 6 are where you start to delve into the nuts and bolts. P/E ratio’s, cash runways, market index rankings per sector and all the snooze button shit that hides the details. Im not going to describe what all this is, DR Google is smarter than me and I’m a few stubbies in already so I might lose track of what the fuck I am saying.
Here is a great link https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fundamentalanalysis.asp
At the heart of FA is whether you believe the narrative the numbers and words tell you.
IMHO if your only interested in FA, then avoid micro caps.
0.03c - 0.05c SP and a $300 -$500 SP is the same % difference but a world apart in the ability of a Stonk to fluctuate under their market cap and FA just doesn’t give you the type of info you need to accurately make a profit within those margins on micros.
(Happy to be proven wrong on this if you think otherwise.)
That’s fucking great pal you might say, but fast forward to the part where it gets me on the rocket ship before it blasts off….
Ok, well here is a clue. If you have read this far and your already impatient or scrolling down to the TLDR, FA might not be your particular brand of vodka.
So lets get into the occult, the witchcraft that is TA….
TA: Being technically anal is actually easier than you might think.
TA is about trends, historical data and volumes. Sure its about more shit than that but it also kind of isn’t.
Its basically saying this stonk already has a template and I can predict where it will go next if I understand that template.
When stonk go up, what does the chart look like?
When stonk go down, what does chart look like?
Yes, it involves funny squiggly lines and colors.
You’ll also come across all sort of stuff like golden (showers) crosses, cups and handles, head and shoulders, descending triangles and other weird phrases but all they are really doing is describing a pattern.
And patterns are predictable once you can see them.
I am tempted to get super into these patterns, but this post is already long so here is a link: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technical-analysis-of-stocks-and-trends.asp#:~:text=Technical%20analysis%20is%20the%20study,data%2C%20including%20price%20and%20volume.&text=The%20two%20most%20common%20forms,needed%20to%20make%20a%20profit.
If you a commsex user, then send a tendie to chief Tom because as an avid reader of ASX_Bets he has clearly been up to the R&D spooks over there and told them to improve the graphs on the app.
You can’t do the super technical stuff, but go backwards over any of last weeks rockets (CRO, HYD and some of the smaller cap ones) and go to the 1 day, 5 day and 1 month graphs respectively.
Click on the chart style indicator (the funny line that looks like the ‘Stonks only go up symbol’) and change it to candlesticks. This gives you indicative buy/sell data in pretty colors so its easier to work out.
Then look at the uppelower indicators, you can change it to show you volume, price tracking lines, Bollinger etc..
Have I lost you yet? That’s ok…
Zoom out the 3 month charts with the same settings and OMG, a pattern emerges….
Zoom out again to 6 months, another pattern…
Zoom back in, heres that funny old pattern again…
But wait you say, this stonk keeps hitting a certain point on the graph, then those red columns get huge and it stays there or bounces down again.
Hello resistance line, hello seller volume, hello traders with pre determined exit points. These guys are not super interested in the FA or the intrinsic value of a long term hold, they are interested in making the 5/10/15% what-the-fuck-ever percent and bouncing out.
Hold the fuck on, when it hits a different level those green dildo’s start popping out in the bottom graph and it stays there for a bit then heads up again…. Aloha support level…
Just go look at Zippy with the above parameters on commsex app, youll see exactly what short sellers, swing traders and the like see….
Fair warning: going backwards on the app helps you to recognize patterns but to do the proper witchcraft TA you need the proper tools and programs
Yes matey you’ll be saying again, very interesting but how the fuck does this get me on the rocket ship before blast off?
Well IMHO, there are 3 ways to board the rocket.
1: You have a mate who tells you or they post it somewhere.
2: You jump on after blast off and play the gambling game, freaking out when it dips and missing all your sweet tendies or pretending diamond hands are the only way and watching it dump then losing all your tendies, or bag holding forever. Or you get lucky and pop out at a high, but TBH your really only gambling (someone please comment ‘Sir, this is a casino, I love that shit 😊)
3: You do both of these methods.
-TA sets your entry point so you board before take off and exit before crash landing.
Both methods have their role.
Yes you can use OBV and Fibbo numners to scan for potential like I do sometimes, but that’s a whole other spectrum of TA and its already past bedtime.
FA IMHO is better generally for Mid/Large cap because they are generally less volatile and FA has seasons where its super useful (Earnings months etc…) TA is better for bouncy bounce plays on micros and mid/large.
But don’t go neglecting either at any time, TA tells you things the FA misses and vice versa.
You can always subscribe to a service that does this for you. Intellegent investor is good-ish, so is wallet investor. Motley fuckwit has some ok picks sometimes but gets the fuckin dick from me because they just don’t stop with the fucking propaganda….
Disclosure: Generally the posts on here do ok, but you gotta know when to get off… Unless your planning to holder forever like uncle Wazza, but that just doesn’t seem to be the vibe here…
For what its worth , (before you all tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about) I have posted about 3 stonks on here in the last few months. (admittedly I shit-post a lot too…)
AFG, which went up 18% 2 days after the post, then dumped and has dribbled ever since but if you’re a long holder you’ll do OK and… EDIT: up another 3.19% after this post...
ICU, which is a micro and went up 15.5% the day after the post. Both were the result of FA/TA combination and both delivered tendies of the succulent variety. EDIT: ICU went up a further 52% 2 days since posting then retraced a touch...
OPY which went from an open of 3.14 up to a high of 4.80 the next day, a 52.8% raise then leveled out around the 3.70’s EDIT: up another 13.7% since this post...
Sorry about the long post, I got finished washing the wifes BF’s car early and he let me have the WIFI password…
TLDR: Gamble if you want or learn some shit and make tendies…
Edit: some really good comments below. I have made far more $$ by choosing good Stonks and holding them over the years than I have ever made day trading.
FA is my primary method for choosing and accounts for probably 75% of my decision making and TA fills the gaps to help maximize profit making.
submitted by username-taken82 to ASX_Bets [link] [comments]

[Comic Books/Batman] A Death in the Family, or: How DC Comics Let a Phone Vote Kill Robin.

DC Comics has published literally thousands of Batman comics in the character's eighty-odd years of existence, but few are more infamous than A Death in the Family, when DC let fans decide whether Jason Todd, the second character to use the identity of Robin, lived or died.
An apology in advance: many primary sources for this drama have been lost to the annals of history: this was the 1980s, the Internet wasn't really a thing yet, so fan discussion around comics mostly took place in Usenet newsgroups and comic book letter columns, both of which are very difficult to find archives of today. I've reconstructed the story as best as I can, but I wish I could find more quotes from fans at the time.
Also, SPOILER WARNING. There are unmarked spoilers for Batman comics from the 1980s below this line. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Who was Jason Todd?

Jason Todd was a character introduced in 1983's Batman #357 by writer Gerry Conway and artist Don Newton and under the auspices of editor Len Wein, as a replacement for Dick Grayson as Robin. Grayson had outgrown the pixie boots and scaly shorts of the Robin identity, and graduated to his own identity as Nightwing, over in The New Teen Titans. But Conway felt that Batman still needed a Robin, so Todd was born:
Gerry Conway (writer, Batman and Detective Comics, 1981-1983): I always felt that Batman worked really well with a sidekick like Robin. My interest in the character was the version of Batman as a detective, the version of Batman as a guardian of Gotham. This was prior, I believe, to the deep-dive into the “dark knight” kind of concept of Batman, so, for that end, the idea of a younger sidekick who could bring out a little more levity in the character seemed useful. But Dick Grayson as a character had grown into a young adult and was integral to the Teen Titans series, and had his own life and his own storylines that were developing separately from Batman, and [he] couldn’t really play that secondary role that I was interested in exploring. [1]
Todd was introduced as the son of two acrobats who had been murdered by Batman's enemy Killer Croc, in a striking similarity to Dick Grayson's origin written forty years prior. Todd would officially become the new Robin in Batman #368, published February 1984, and would continue to go on adventures (written by Conway and then by Doug Moench) with Batman until 1986's Batman #400. During this period, he's probably best remembered for a. being involved in a custody battle between Batman and a vampire, and b. getting the drop on Mongul in the classic Superman story "For the Man Who Has Everything" by writer Alan Moore and artist Dave Gibbons.
But then the Crisis happened, and everything changed for Jason.

The Crisis

You don't have a comic book company for almost fifty years without running into some hurdles along the way, especially where characters and continuity are concerned. In 1954, psychologist Frederick Wertham published Seduction of the Innocent, a book asserting that comic books were harming the children of the day, causing them to turn into delinquents. As a result, the bustling superhero genre of comics at the time slowed to a crawl, with most of DC's (then known as National Periodical Publications) characters, such as the Green Lantern and the Flash, ceasing publication and being replaced with comics about talking animals, romance stories, and giant alien monsters.
Just a few short years later, in October 1956, creators Robert Kangher and Carmine Infantino would introduce a new version of the Flash in Showcase #4, and the Silver Age of comics had begun. Eventually, the Golden Age Flash was reintroduced, and it was established that the Silver Age characters resided on Earth-One, while the Golden Age characters were from Earth-Two. Everything was fine and dandy, until DC decided things had become too confusing and that they needed to kill their multiverse.
In 1986, DC published one of the very first comic crossover events - Crisis on Infinite Earths, an earth-shattering story that pitted almost every hero in company history against the threat of the Anti-Monitor. The outcome was that all the characters and stories from Earth-One, Earth-Two, and several other alternate Earths that had appeared over the years were consolidated into a single, streamlined universe, and with that came changes for several other characters, Jason Todd among them.

The New Jason Todd

After Crisis, new blood was in the Batman editorial offices. Former Batman writer Denny O'Neil had taken over as editor of the Batman family of titles, and he had a different opinion on Robin than that of Wein and Conway before him.
O’Neil: There was a time right before I took over as Batman editor when he seemed to be much closer to a family man, much closer to a nice guy. He seemed to have a love life and he seemed to be very paternal towards Robin. My version is a lot nastier than that. He has a lot more edge to him. [1]
In keeping with the desire for a darker, edgier Dark Knight (it was the 1980s, after all), this version of Batman debuted without a Robin by his side. Dick Grayson was still Nightwing, but Jason Todd was nowhere to be seen. This darker interpretation of Batman was only solidified once Frank Miller put his touch on the franchise with "Batman: Year One" in Batman #404-407, and the standalone graphic novel The Dark Knight Returns, the impact of which cannot be understated.
The Dark Knight Returns was a pivotal moment in the formation of what we would consider a recognizably “modern” incarnation of Batman, someone who is brooding and dark, a loner who isolates himself from society to obsessively carry out his one man crusade by any brutally violent means necessary. It was also an important milestone for comics a medium when it landed on top of the Young Adult Hardcover New York Times bestsellers list—a feat it only qualified for thanks to its release as a trade paperback in bookstores. For the first time, mainstream audiences were zeroing in on Batman, and not because of a popular TV show or serialized movies, but because of a comic book. 2
Immediately following "Year One," O'Neil asked writer Max Allan Collins to reintroduce Jason Todd as Robin into the continuity, in a storyline titled "Batman: The New Adventures" starting in Batman #408. The new Todd was a delinquent orphan, caught by Batman when he tried to steal the tires from the Batmobile and taken in and trained to be the new Robin.
At first, the change was controversial among the fandom, especially given the wildly contrasting takes between Mike W. Barr's softer portrayal of the Dynamic Duo in Detective Comics and the harsher portrayal from creators such as Collins, Jim Aparo, and Jim Starlin (best known now as the creator of Thanos) in Batman. But nobody was clamoring for his death yet, and the intensity of debates around the new Jason Todd, fought out through comic book letter columns, were milder in comparison to those around whether there should be a yellow oval on the Batsuit or not. [3]
Over the next few years, fan hatred for Jason began to grow, as the new incarnation of the character was not only a replacement for a highly beloved character, but also had a lot of anger issues to sort through. But then came the boiling point - Batman #424, written by Starlin and pencilled by Mark Bright, released October 1988. In that story, Todd confronts Felipe, son of a South American diplomat who was heavily involved in the cocaine trade. Batman reasons that, because Felipe has diplomatic immunity, there's nothing he can do to stop him, but Todd thinks otherwise. Felipe falls from a skyscraper to his death, leaving Batman to wonder: "did Felipe fall... Or was he pushed?"
(Starlin, for what it was worth, hated Todd from the get-go, and specifically wrote this story to play to the controversy:
Starlin: In the one Batman issue I wrote with Robin featured, I had him do something underhanded, as I recall. Denny had told me that the character was very unpopular with fans, so I decided to play on that dislike. [1]
He had also tried to have Todd killed beforehand, of AIDS:
Well, I always thought that the whole idea of a kid side-kick was sheer insanity. So when I started writing Batman, I immediately started lobbying to kill off Robin. At one point DC had this AIDS book they wanted to do. They sent around memos to everybody saying “What character do you think we should, you know, have him get AIDS and do this dramatic thing” and they never ended up doing this project. I kept sending them things saying “Oh, do Robin! Do Robin!” And Denny O’Neill said “We can’t kill Robin off”. [4]

A Death in the Family

By 1988, though, O'Neil had changed his tune. Alan Moore and Brian Bolland's The Killing Joke had left longtime supporting character Batgirl crippled and confined to a wheelchair, to major praise from fans and critics alike, and there was blood in the water. Sales for Batman were at levels not seen for over a decade thanks to the works of Miller and Moore, Tim Burton's Batman feature film was on the horizon, far removed from the camp aesthetic of Adam West and Burt Ward and entirely Robin-free, and fan hatred for Todd was at an all-time high.
Jenette Kahn (publisher, DC Comics, 1976-1989; president, 1981-2003; editor-in-chief, 1989-2003) : Many of our readers were unhappy with Jason Todd. We weren’t certain why or how widespread the discontent was, but we wanted to address it. Rather than autocratically write Jason out of the comics and bring in a new Robin, we thought we’d let our readers weigh in. [1]
O'Neil and his team of editors brainstormed how they could remove Jason from the story, and the answer was clear: kill him, just as Starlin had suggested time and time again. Recalling the success of a 1982 Saturday Night Live sketch in which Eddie Murphy let viewers vote via phone on whether he would cook or spare a live lobester, O'Neil proposed a similar system to Kahn, who loved the idea.
So, A Death in the Family began in Batman #426, written by Starlin and illustrated by Jim Aparo. When Jason receives word that his missing mother is alive, he follows a set of leads across the world to find her, only to discover that she was being blackmailed by the Joker. Jason's mother hands him over to the Clown Prince of Crime, and that's how Batman #427 ends. On the back cover of that issue, DC ran a full-page ad, proclaiming: "Robin Will Die Because the Joker Wants Revenge, But You Can Prevent It With a Telephone Call" and giving two 1-900 numbers: one to call to save Jason, and one to kill him.
Two versions of issue #428 were written and drawn. One where Jason lived, and another, where he died. Both went into a drawer in O'Neil's desk, and the fans would choose which one would ever see the light of day.
The fans went rabid. One letter, published in Batman #428, read as follows:
"Dear Denny, I heard some of what you are planning for "A Death In the Family" story line, including the phone-in number wrinkle, and I don't want to take any chances whatsoever. Kill him. Your pal, Rich Kreiner."
From 9:00 in the morning on Thursday, September 15, 1988 until 8:00 in the evening on Friday, September 16, fans could call in to either of the two numbers for fifty cents a call and cast their vote. In the end, the votes were tallied: 5,271 voted for Todd to survive, and 5,343 voted for him to die. By a margin of 72 votes, Robin died in the pages of Batman #428, beaten to death with a crowbar by the Joker. The image of Batman cradling Robin's dead body became immediately iconic.

The Reaction

Fan reaction to the story was mixed, despite the seeming fervor for Todd's death and the blood that was on their hands. The letters pages for Batman #430 (1, 2) show a mixture of celebration over Jason's death, remorse over individuals' decisions to vote for death, and hope that Robin's absence would lead to more mature Batman stories in the future. However, every issue of A Death in the Family was a best-seller, and a collected edition was rushed out in early December of 1988, only a week after the final issue in the arc was released to stores.
But now that the fan feeding frenzy was (mostly) over, the media feeding frenzy had begun. You don't just kill Robin and get away with it without media attention. USA Today and Reuters ran articles on the story, and DC was besieged with interview requests from radio and TV stations.
O’Neil: I spent three days doing nothing but talking on the radio. I thought it would get us some ink here and there and maybe a couple of radio interviews. I had no idea—nor did anyone else—it would have the effect it did. Peggy [May], our publicity person, finally just said, “Stop, no more, we can’t do anymore,” or I would probably still be talking. She also nixed any television appearances. At the time, I wondered about that but now I am very glad she did, because there was a nasty backlash and I came to be very grateful that people could not associate my face with the guy who killed Robin. [1]
Internally at DC, there were suspicions that the vote had been rigged in some fashion.
O'Neil: "I heard it was one guy, who programmed his computer to dial the thumbs down number every ninety seconds for eight hours, who made the difference." [5]
But regardless of whether it was or not, Jason Todd was dead, and he would remain dead for as long as O'Neil stayed at DC - long enough for the phrase to be coined: "nobody in comics stays dead except for Uncle Ben, Bucky, and Jason Todd." But he wouldn't remain dead forever.

Legacy

Jason would be succeeded by a new Robin, less than a year after his death. In a crossover storyline between Batman and New Titans written by Marv Wolfman and illustrated by George Perez and Jim Aparo, entitled "A Lonely Place of Dying", the character of Tim Drake would be introduced. Unlike Todd and Grayson before him, Drake would challenge the assumptions made about the character of Robin - he figured out Batman's secret identity on his own, and deduced that Batman needed a Robin by his side, to ensure he wouldn't take unneeded risks.
Gone were the short pants of yesteryear - Drake wore a full-body suit with an armored cape, and was more of a detective than a fighter. He debuted to mixed reactions, although fans soon grew to love him under the pen of Chuck Dixon, who would be one of the major architects of Batman in the 1990s.
Todd would get a second chance at life seventeen years later. In 2005, writer Judd Winick wrote the storyline "Under the Hood," published in Batman #635-641, 645-650, and Annual #25. There, it's revealed that Todd returned to life thanks to an alternate version of Superboy punching reality (it's comics, don't ask) and the aid of R'as al Ghul's Lazarus Pits, and donned the identity of the crime lord the Red Hood in his quest for revenge against the Joker.
Todd, as the Red Hood, persists as a popular character today, a lasting symbol of Batman's failure, as he operates as a pragmatic vigilante, willing to take risks Batman isn't.
More recently, in July 2020, DC announced a Death in the Family animated interactive feature film in the vein of Black Mirror's "Bandersnatch" - again, viewers can choose whether Todd lives or dies, among other options.
Edit: fixed a typo.
submitted by WestFlashBestFlash to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

$LPTH - DD - lightpath technologies - A company which is growing and will keep on growing

Overview: LightPath Technologies is a recognized leader in optics and photonics solutions, serving blue chip customers in the industrial, defense, telecommunications, testing and measurement, and medical industries, for over 35 years. LightPath designs, manufactures, and distributes optical and infrared components including molded glass aspheric lenses and assemblies, infrared lenses and thermal imaging assemblies, and fused fiber collimators.
LightPath also offers custom optical assemblies, including full engineering design support for both optics and mechanics. This allows for the highest level of optical integration, lower cost, and ensures the highest level of quality, performance and manufacturability.
Presence in multiple countries:.
Customers: Look at these customer list, detailed list in the pic. They are separated by Infrared and Visible light. Same can be found HERE

Sector Diversification:
Sector diversification
Infra Red Blue chip customers:
Infra Red Customer list
Visible light Customers:

Visible light Customer list
Products:
Recent News, catalysts, facts:
Results from 3rd quarter results: Link here
Growth: Company uses Chalcogenide and its low cost and very high demand. see this article
Increased mutual fund ownership
Mutual funds have been increasing their positions in LPTH, with previous quarter increases exceeding 48.13% .These funds include Vanguard, Royce, and Fidelity – all moving their positions deeper with Royce now holding 4.4% of the company’s shares. This shows high interest from proven winners who understand the market and a confidence in the long-term profitability of the firm.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/evaluate/fundamentals/ownership.jhtml?stockspage=ownership&symbols=LPTH
Analyst opinions - Refinitiv/Verus has a strong BUY opinion, ranking it with their “SmartIndex” score of 37.41% - a very bullish signal that indicates a strong reasoning to increase positions. This has been upgraded by 3 firms from a Neutral position to a bullish BUY, with FBR indicating a 1-year history of nearly constant outperformance for the relative sector.
Upcoming catalyst: Strong earnings this year, with earnings upcoming September 10th. – Q2 and Q3 have both met or exceeded EPS estimates, with current estimates indicating a repeat of this for the upcoming report. Higher earnings per share is one of the key factors to look at when evaluating the feasibility of any
Price Target: This company has a solid growth. Here is a article which clearly explains thermal imaging market continues to rapidly expand and company has a great future. This is a low float once it gets the eyes it can be move a lot.
Risks:
LPTH has little demonstrated interest in the usual PR-spam that people interested in volatile growth like to see. They focus on their work, and not so much pumping the news cycle. This is both good and bad – when positive PR releases do happen, historical charts show growth is positive and quick – yet the inverse is likely also true. This does also present the benefit of being a safe-haven versus a highly volatile, high volume play.
Relatively low-float – Shares are, by nature, subject to higher volatility and offerings once the prices begin to increase. In companies that stay under the radar such as LPTH, there are opportunities for both buyers and short-sellers, and there is ample opportunity to end up a bag-holder if responsible exit plans are not in place. (This hopefully is becoming a common practice for everyone – know when to leave before you get in!
Stock History: Look at the stock history it has been constantly growing from last 6 month. It was at .63 and now trading around 3$. Its not a pump dump but a company which actually has a growth and a solid investment as well.
submitted by varun22486 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

The current turmoil in Belarus and its impact to Belarusian-Russian bilateral relations: A few points of consideration

Aleksandr Lukashenko was purportedly re-elected in Belarus's most recent elections. The current turmoil resulted. As is fairly common in certain Eastern European elections, the 80% margin by which he claimed victory gives rise to obvious doubts as to legitimacy. Mass protests and demonstrations resulted. Lukashenko has 'won' past elections by similar margins, at least 85-90%+. Lukashenko has arrested most of his political opponents, and jailed or exiled others. Journalists which report on the extent of his corruption (of which there is no shortage) tend to find themselves in prison. His title as Europe's so called 'last dictator' is well deserved.
The Global Response to Lukashenko's Purported Re-Election
The global response to Lukashenko's purported re-election has been largely as would be anticipated. Western countries -- and specifically the United States, through Mike Pompeo -- have expressed their reservations. The results are self evidently suspect. Despite this, Russia and China both endorsed the results and both countries have officially signaled their endorsement of the results. Notably, Russia historically has been Belarus's strongest and closest ally, the animosity between Putin and Lukashenko in the recent years notwithstanding.
Uncertainty from Russia
Despite the official endorsement from Putin, uncertainty remains as to the future of Russian and Belarusian bilateral relations. Several prominent Russians, including those inside Putin's inner circle, have signaled that the Lukashenko's backing from Moscow is not guaranteed.
Several developments this year contextualize the current status quo. First, negotiations for discounted oil broke down in totality earlier in February 2020. Russia not only suspended deliveries to Belarus, but offered future sales at "market rates" on a purely commercial basis. Second, the oil negotiations broke down after Putin's proposal to merge the two countries was flatly rejected. Natural gas sales were still discounted somewhat, but the lack of a market rate discount for oil sales to Belarus was a significant blow to the integrity of their relationship.
The basic idea here is that when global oil prices were high, Russia could with very little significant loss discount its sales to Belarus to gain favor and geopolitical influence. When oil prices bottomed out -- as they have in recent years -- the costs of that deal to Russia rose, so Russia sought to re-negotiate. In the past, Lukashenko made few concessions (and in fact used the potential of closer ties with the West to extract that concession from Russia, consistent with his historical maneuvering of the animosity between Russia and NATO to his distinct advantage). At the very least, Russia wanted closer economic (and by implication, political) integration; potentially, integration to the level of merging the two countries once Lukashenko left office. Lukashenko predictably rebuked any such proposal.
Shrinking Russian Sphere of Influence
From the outside looking in, it may not make sense why Russia would even want to integrate with Belarus. All doubt however is resolved in consideration of how the other near and distant dominoes seem to be lining up -- each of them to fall outside the Russian sphere of influence. Consider Kazakhstan, for example. Nazarbayev (Kazakh president) has made deliberate efforts to broaden its economic and cultural reach outside the sphere of Russian influence, even to the point that he changed the Kazakh alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin in 2017. The idea was to draw a line in the sand relative to the scope and extent of Russian influence in Central Asia in general and Kazakhstan in particular.
The fact that Russia hemorrhaged allied states following the USSR's collapse is a matter of historical record. Thirteen Warsaw Pact countries have joined NATO. So, when Georgia endeavored to join the EU in 2007, Putin invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- both of which remain allegedly "disputed" territories to this day. A highly deceptive analysis concluded Georgia was to blame; but the whole reason Russia invaded in the first place was because Georgia was actively seeking NATO membership -- of course, to prevent exactly such an invasion. In reality, Russia invaded a sovereign country for the purpose of preventing it from joining NATO. Putin's response shows that in Russia's analysis, Georgia is better as a fragmented state than a NATO ally or EU member.
A similar pattern played out in Ukraine. As I have discussed before, when Ukraine sought closer economic and political integration with Western Europe and the United States, that was met with Russian meddling in Ukraine's domestic politics, even to the point of installing Yanukovych as Russia's puppet Ukrainian president. Thereafter, in the face of maidan, Putin invaded eastern Ukraine and seized Crimea. In the example of Ukraine as in Georgia, the outcome shows that Russia would prefer that Ukraine be a failed or fragmented state than a NATO ally or EU member.
Recall that the goal here was for Putin to create an economic alliance in at least Eastern Europe and Central Asia to rival the EU, and ideally as an insurance policy against further sanctions. The first step in that process would be developing individualized economic integration projects among each of the former Soviet bloc states. Instead, Putin lost Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Ukraine in the span of less than a decade. Ukraine was the first such integration project -- and that resulted in then-president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych's absconding Ukraine for Russia in disgrace.
So is Belarus next?
Perhaps. It's a question worth asking; especially considering what "being next" could mean.
In a first set of possible worlds, Lukashenko is out because of his own decisions, or because he is forced out (potentially by the protesters, Russia or both). In 2018-2019, when Russian-Belarusian bilateral relations were at their worst, it's conceivable that Putin might have tried something like he achieved in Ukraine -- but highly unlikely.
It isn't obvious that Putin would be unwilling invade, given in particular the fact that he invaded Georgia and Ukraine under somewhat similar circumstances and that at this moment Lukashenko is very weak. Lukashenko has never faced mass protests/demonstrations of this caliber before. Putin has, and he survived them, but the public's dissatisfaction with Lukashenko's "leadership" is amplified by the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, the consequential economic fallout attributable to the world's response to the coronavirus, and an increasingly ravenous lion to the east in its once-closer ally Russia.
This combination of factors certainly suggests that if Moscow sees the opportunity to try to replace Lukashenko with someone more reliable to the Kremlin, that is exactly what the Kremlin would try to accomplish. In that situation, Moscow would be re-running the same play-book it ran to get Yanukovych elected as president of Ukraine. Even if such a far-fetched plan were to work -- and it almost certainly would not, in the short term or the long term -- who would take Lukashenko's place? There is no one that would not leave Moscow worse off than they would be with Lukashenko. While it's obvious why he's not ideal, given the recent history of strife between the two countries, there is no world where Russia's interests are -- at this time -- served by trying to replace Lukashenko with a Kremlin puppet.
In the second set of possible worlds, Lukashenko remains and has to quell or pacify the Belarusian political unrest while maintaining ground against increasing Russian pressure. To accomplish this, Lukashenko could do something like seek a trade deal with the EU, as both Georgia and Ukraine did. But that would almost certainly would involve some kind of military response from Russia, just like Georgia and then Ukraine. While there's an argument to be made that Lukashenko's historically closer relationship with Russia (however complicated) insulates him from the kind of retaliation Putin visited upon Georgia and Ukraine, he would still be playing with fire. The Russian response to that kind of a bargaining chip from Russia would likely not come in the form of unwillingness to discount oil; it would come in the same form as was witnessed in Eastern Ukraine. To be clear, neither Putin nor Lukashenko benefit in that case.
The remaining option is most likely: Lukashenko "cracks down" on the protests, and then everything goes back to normal.
Why Belarus is Different from Ukraine & Georgia
As I wrote before, Belarus is not Ukraine. Maidan in Ukraine was in direct response to Ukrainian government's preventing Ukraine from joining the EU. The Ukrainian government opted for a counter-agreement with Russia instead. In response, Ukrainians took to the streets and sought Yanukovych's resignation. He subsequently fled to Russia. There were other abuses that precipitated the demonstrations, like Yanukovych arresting his pro-democracy political opponents and arresting journalists who were reporting on the extent of his corruption, but the threshold moment was when Yanukovych tried to rebuke the democratic will of the Ukrainian people (shirk the EU in favor of the Kremlin). So, for Ukraine, the goal was a clear and decisive move towards the EU and the United States (and NATO, by implication). This was in response to decades of Kremlin meddling in Ukrainian domestic political affairs. Maidan there was Ukraine setting forth a future for itself that did not include Putin.
Belarus also isn't Georgia. The purported underlying ethnic conflict behind the Russian invasion of Georgia was little more than an illusory pretext; Saakashvili's primary aim for Georgia was to become a NATO member and there was clear support for that in the Bush Administration because of the implications that would have to world oil markets. Specifically, despite the fact that Georgia has no reserves of its own, a pipeline across Georgia would substantially decrease Western dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Bush even outlined a pathway for both Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. This was intolerable to Putin, and so he invaded as a result.
Belarus and its present situation is almost wholly incongruous. Belarus is now and has always been a far more authoritarian regime than Ukraine ever was, even at its worst. Unlike Ukraine and Georgia, Belarus never made the initial step towards actual democracy that ultimately laid the foundation the Ukrainian maidan or the Georgian efforts to draw closer to the West. Belarus also does not have ambitions of closer ties with the West, and the EU and Untied States in particular -- which Ukraine has sought for some time. Lukashenko only ever used that as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from Moscow -- a fact of which Putin is invariably aware. The riots taking place now in Belarus are not oriented towards any goal in particular, either. It's arbitrary rage. Even if they were oriented towards democratic reform, and it is not clear that they are, Belarus has no intention of divesting itself from the Russian sphere of influence -- however high the costs of maintaining that relationship may be.
Compromise / Cooperation best serve both Belarus's & Russia's Interests
If both Belarus and Russia act rationally, they will cooperate and compromise. Russia will have little choice but to accept the fact that Belarus is not merging with Russia any time soon. The costs of Russia's invading would be inexorably high. There is no one in Belarusian politics that can replace Lukashenko that would be both able to preserve Belarus as a state and that would in the same instance be able to more effectively advance Moscow's interests. Likewise, it is in Russia's interest that these riots and protests throughout Belarus come to and end -- as quickly and expeditiously as possible. Political unrest in one totalitarian country has a tendency to spread to another; as Putin has experienced time and again, dating back to his time in Dresden through the present. Further, this all comes at a time when Russian public confidence in Putin is at an all time low -- and the potential for another Moscow maidan (and perhaps one that might actually be successful) is at an all time high. Given that, the more pertinent question in the final analysis might even be, if Lukashenko falls, is Putin next? Their fates are tied together, whether they like it or not.
submitted by theoryofdoom to geopolitics [link] [comments]

Carvana(CVNA) DD

Carvana(CVNA) DD
Position: 9/18 110p


Carvana(CVNA) is the first end-to-end online car retailer. You can buy a car without ever having seen it in person, which is fucking stupid to me, but apparently people like it so whatever. The stock is trading at 148.36, and their current market cap is about 25 billion, which seems a bit high for a used car dealer. The consensus price target among most analysts is right around 100$, suggesting a downside of around 30%. They have earnings coming up on August 5, and Steel City Capital recently sent this letter to their investors regarding CVNA:

"I believe market expectations for Carvana (CVNA) are disconnected from what the company is likely to deliver, particularly as it relates to the next several quarters. One of the company’s key value propositions – purchasing a car from the comfort of your home with no direct human interaction – is tailor-made for a world of social distancing. After bottoming at $22.16, shares have risen 6.4x to their current level of $141. The market is expecting more from CVNA today than it did at the beginning of the year.
What I believe investors fail to appreciate is the company actually finds itself at a momentary disadvantage that should fully emerge in its third quarter results. Specifically, CVNA made a strategic decision to pull back on used vehicle inventory purchases in March and April in order to preserve liquidity. While the company has since resumed purchases, inventory listed on the company’s website remains far below levels exhibited earlier in the year. In turn, this will weigh upon future retail sales volumes. At an investor conference in June, CEO Eddie Garcia had the following to say:
“So we've historically had over 30,000 cars in the site. Coming out of coronavirus, we stopped buying cars for probably 45 days, give or take. And so our inventory today is smaller than that, but we plan to build back to that level and continue to build from there.”
“So I think – we quickly reacted when we saw the impacts that coronavirus was having. And so that included tightening credit, it included stopping buying cars from customers and buying cars in general. And so that clearly has had impacts. And the bounce back has been much faster than certainly I would have imagined. Whether it's the bounce back in demand or the bounce back in vehicle prices, the bounce back in volume at auction. So I think that has positioned us to where we have less inventory than we wish we had today by, to be honest, a pretty significant margin. So I think we are working hard and we have work to do to build our inventory back up. That is clearly constraining sales versus what they would otherwise be.”
Various data service providers have pegged the number of units for sale on CVNA’s website at ~15,000 during the first two weeks of July. This compares to an average of ~31,500 in 1Q’20 when the company’s FY’20 sales guidance was for ~260,000 retail units. For the company to generate sales anywhere in line with consensus expectations, it will need to rebuild its inventory – and do it quickly. Unfortunately for CVNA, it faces unexpected headwinds in rebuilding its inventory position. Used vehicle prices have staged a stunning rebound, with Manheim reporting in mid-July that wholesale used vehicle prices sit 11.0% over last year’s levels8 . In fact, if the index holds for the full month of July, it will set a record high for the second consecutive month. So CVNA finds itself in a position where it must refill its depleted inventory at a time where wholesale used vehicle prices sit at an all-time high. This will likely prove to be a headwind to profitability – notable because the company continues to generate cash losses for each unit it sells.
For good measure, I updated the table included in the Partnership’s 1Q’20 letter that compared CVNA’s key financial and operating metrics to those of the nation’s largest used care retailer, CarMax (KMX). Despite CVNA’s reported results continuing to woefully lag those of KMX, the company has actually grown is valuation premium to $9.1 billion compared to “only” $3.0 billion in late April. Investors clearly have great expectations."

This point of view makes sense to me because when COVID hit, the number one priority for most companies was, and still is, hoarding cash. Why would CVNA continue to acquire cars when they weren't sure if people would actually be buying them? Combine that with the huge increase in the price of used cars, and you've got a recipe for an earning's failure.

Technicals:

https://preview.redd.it/x9iud9t1wwc51.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab9926af593397a0d7a8936c0d759821f4119b93
The daily RSI has been near overbought territory for quite a while. It seems to follow an almost constant pattern of a 7-10 day run up, then a hard dump. The overall trend since March has been obviously straight up though. It has hung around right below 150 the past 3 days and has been unable to break and hold that round number. The daily MACD is beginning to turn bearish, and the volume has dropped off significantly. The average traded volume is 2.74 million, and today's volume was 1.25 million. I don't see many new buyers coming into the picture at this price level, and if earnings are a failure, this will dump out hard. One downside to this play is the lack of option volume, but take a look at the open interest for August 21 70p.

https://preview.redd.it/8dpl0cz6ywc51.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=2480325a61d4e04b1dc8948995dddeb31320fcca
While I don't think it means a lot, that's still a very large number relative to the other strike dates. There is no open interest remotely close to that when you get into the $100+ strikes.

I think its worth a gamble. This company is not worth fucking 25 billion dollars, and I think their number on August 5 will bring it back to reality. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Edit: There is a lawsuit filed against the CEO and his father. It is worth skimming through. Apparently they have a long history of doing shady shit, and the father has been buttfucked by the SEC before. This stock is clearly being manipulated, but if this lawsuit, which was filed on May 28, is resolved in the next few weeks or so and the Garcia's are found guilty, that could explain the unusually high open interest on the August 70 puts.
https://www.bloomberglaw.com/public/desktop/document/StPaulConstructionPensionPlanetalvErnestGarciaIIIetalDocketNo2020?1595678458
submitted by NdSeIr to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Sold a Call Credit Spread, short strike got excersised

So....I sold a 327/328C credit spread on SPY expiring 7/31. At first in my RH history it expired worthless as desired. Later on I see a voided entry and that I got assigned on the short strike (327) when SPY was trading at 326.0. The 328 I bought expired worthless. I've dealt with both of them expiring in the money and taking a max loss in the past with excersising my long call but have never been assigned on my short call with my long call expiring worthless....
My account balance still shows as positive but I have a margin call for 30k. My buying power states -60k. In my history it shows a credit of 32,699.26
I understand the mechanics of what happened but I'm curious if anyone has experienced this and if I now owe Robinhood money? If I understand correctly I shouldn't owe them money.
I assume everything will be fine on Monday. I could be wrong though. Has anyone seen this or experienced this and know what happens?
submitted by AStreifel85 to options [link] [comments]

Understanding Margin Trading Accounts - Initial & Intraday Margin WHAT IS MARGIN TRADING IN MARKET Margin Buying Basics  by Wall Street Survivor - YouTube How to see binance trade history The Ups and Downs of Margin Trading

What is margin? When trading forex, you are only required to put up a small amount of capital to open and maintain a new position.. This capital is known as the margin.. For example, if you want to buy $100,000 worth of USD/JPY, you don’t need to put up the full amount, you only need to put up a portion, like $3,000.The actual amount depends on your forex broker or CFD provider. View a list of historical margins by name, provided by CME Group. Margin trading from A to Z by Michael T. Curley, 2008, Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John edition, in English History. An edition of Margin trading from A to Z (2008) Margin Trading from a to Z A Complete Guide to Borrowing, Investing and Regulation by Michael T. Curley. Margin trading has been around for decades and there's a good reason for that. Margin accounts offer flexibility to investors, who use the strategy to take advantage of market opportunities by According to Werner and Smith, “time bargains prevailed on Wall Street until 1840, and were gradually replaced by margin trading by 1860” (68). They add that, “margin trading … had an advantage over time bargains, in which there was little protection against default beyond the word of another broker.

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Understanding Margin Trading Accounts - Initial & Intraday Margin

Understanding the Difference Between Margin and Markup in Your Small Business - Duration: 10:54. BABO - Training for Local Small Business Owners 4,139 views 10:54 Warren Buffett, Chariman, Berkshire Hathaway Investment Group Terry Leadership Speaker Series - Duration: 1:17:10. Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia Recommended for you How To Pay Off Your Mortgage Fast Using Velocity Banking How To Pay Off Your Mortgage In 5-7 Years - Duration: 41:34. Think Wealthy with Mike Adams 665,074 views This is an Educational Video presented by LEONARD GROUPS.official website :www.onlineprofessionaltraders.com.This video explains what is margin trading in market (TAMIL VERSION). In this video, Joshua Martinez goes over the difference between Initial and Intraday margin, for trading futures. Different trading brokers have different requirements for trading the market ...

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