How to Trade with Margin and Rapidly Grow Your Account

I traded bitcoin at margin on a simulated exchange... if I did well does that mean I can do the same thing with real money?

I turned 1000 USD to 12000 USD in less than 2 months (not real money) by trading BTC at 20x margin on a simulated exchange. My question is basically, will the same trading strategies work on Bitmex or some margin allowing exchange if I use real money? Also, I cant find any crypto exchanges that allow margin trading in the U.S.
submitted by bansheekin to BitcoinBeginners [link] [comments]

USDT-Margined Futures Trading Simulation: 24 Hour Trading Volume Tops 200,000BTC

USDT-Margined Futures Trading Simulation: 24 Hour Trading Volume Tops 200,000BTC
#OKEx #crypto
🎊🎊 USDT-Margined Futures Trading Simulation
🕛🕛24 Hour Trading Volume Tops 200,000BTC 💥💥
https://preview.redd.it/64ri8j1rp1x31.png?width=2001&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5472810502614dd49d25a5fc724096e92f043ef
submitted by OKEx_Philippines to OKExPH [link] [comments]

Battle Royale - USDT Margined Futures Trading Simulation

Battle Royale - USDT Margined Futures Trading Simulation
🎊🎊Battle Royale-USDT Futures Contracts Trading Simulation is coming soon. Come and play with derivative trading with as low as 💲1 and earn up to 10,000 USDT!🎈🎈 #OKEx #crypto #BTC

https://preview.redd.it/k8d4p4su4nw31.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=381433692d5ee7fe833437aca8b4ab7d61559a73
submitted by OKEx_Philippines to OKExPH [link] [comments]

➤ Crypto Daily: DigiFinex recruiting Simulated Margin Trading Contest team leaders and analysts

➤ Crypto Daily: DigiFinex recruiting Simulated Margin Trading Contest team leaders and analysts
Crypto Daily:
➤ DigiFinex recruiting Simulated Margin Trading Contest team leaders and analysts;
➤ TRON acquired CoinPlay, a blockchain app store;
➤ CoinMarketCap admits its data is inaccurate, plans to integrate new features;
➤ New USStocks token lets investors access US stock market with stablecoin Dai.
https://medium.com/@digifinex/crypto-daily-digifinex-recruiting-simulated-margin-trading-team-leaders-and-analysts-tron-f9193a1b9427

https://preview.redd.it/ias5pd2ld1p21.jpg?width=740&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0b59a054e724a1c414166733dee0b57198a1fc8
submitted by DigiFinex to DigiFinex [link] [comments]

1st PRIZE 88,8888 USDT, DigiFinex Simulated Margin Trading Contest

1st PRIZE 88,8888 USDT, DigiFinex Simulated Margin Trading Contest submitted by DigiFinex to DigiFinex [link] [comments]

Learn To Margin Trade Crypto With BitMEX Simulation Account

Learn To Margin Trade Crypto With BitMEX Simulation Account submitted by chicatx to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Shut up and take my money, or, why does Steam make game discovery so damn hard?

I came across this article over at PC Gamer last week, and it got me thinking to share it and my own thoughts with you guys. From said article:
Here’s what I want Steam to be: a place where I can easily and conveniently find games I wish to buy, buy them, and access them. I do not believe Valve and I’s outlook on this aligns.
Valve seem to have some small interest in Steam performing these functions, but a much greater excitement for layering endless experimental systems on top of each other. The act of buying and playing games must itself be gamified from every possible angle.
Over the years, it’s introduced trading cards, badges, and a marketplace for in-game items. It’s given us countless different kinds of fake money, earned by spending real money, usually to be spent on stickers, emotes, profile backgrounds, and other gew-gaws I couldn’t even be confident in the function of.
...And as these experiments rumble on and mutate into ever less necessary forms, Valve neglects the core experience. The store is less usable now than it’s ever been, utterly clogged with nonsense and shovelware with incredibly poor moderation. Efforts to tailor the experience algorithmically have created more problems than they’ve solved, making it increasingly difficult to get to the page you actually want, rather than the one Steam thinks you’d like.
The last paragraph hits right on the nose the issue I've had with Steam for literally years. Back around 2008 when I first started buying games there, it was a pretty tightly curated market space with clearly delineated categories of games. A racing game was always just in the "Racing" category. Action games were under "Action" and simulations were under, you guessed it, "Simulation".
Later, with the opening of the marketplace directly to developers, categories went away to be replaced by tags. Sure, you can still open a category and see things listed under it. But the difference between a category and a tag is that a game belongs in just one category or another, whereas tags are applied even if it only applies loosely to one small part of the game.
What happens then is this: You open up a category and look at the top ten or twenty games there. Now, go to another category, and most of the top games there were in the previous one, too. At one point, Arma 3 (A game I financially became a "supporter" of before its release) appeared near the top of the lists for Action, Adventure, Massively Multiplayer, Simulation, Strategy, and, thanks to the April Fool's offering of the Karts DLC, under Racing. What is even the point of categories now? Smaller studios should hate this too, because it makes getting visibility even in a niche market very difficult.
Ten years ago, I bought a lot more games than I have in the last few. By a huge margin. Because I could open the Steam Store and discover things I may never have heard of that looked cool as hell, and often really was. I may be an exception, but now I find being brow-beat with the same games no matter what I'm actually looking for to be just exhausting. I can't count how many times I've been on Steam, virtual cash in hand, looking for anything interesting to pick up, and given up after ten or twenty minutes of seeing the same old things mixed with shovelware and novelty games that haven't gotten enough negative reviews to sink them yet. Valve should be alarmed by this, because that's literally an easy sale that was thwarted by a terrible shopping experience. I'm genuinely envious of people with long backlogs of games.
As a software engineer, I love algorithms, the more clever the better. But Steam's algos fall so far short of real, human curation that it's just sad. They have added other users you can follow as "curators" but those mostly seem to be joke accounts, and even the serious ones don't seem to do much more than skim the known surface of the gaming landscape.
And don't get me started on the change to screenshot thumbnails instead of text descriptions of the game when you hover over them on the store page, making you have to click through to find out what the game is all about...
submitted by EndlessEmergency to truegaming [link] [comments]

PGA 2K11 Review as a mild golf fan and new to the series

I was anticipating this game as a fan of Golf, and 2K generally does a great job with sport simulations. While I enjoyed Golf Story, nothing compares to a true sim where shaping shots, approaches, and nuanced bag decisions can make or break your round.
In short, if you like golf at all, you’ll be happy with this title as a perfect time pass game on the Switch. If you take golf very seriously and plan to play online, go for PC or PS4.
MyPlayer and Brands
I was impressed with the amount of customization your player can have. You can shape the eyelids and rotate the cheek angles. I created a pretty good representation of myself IRL in 10-15 minutes. Brands are essential to golf, and some big names are represented. Notably Nike is absent, but Adidas is there.
Golfers and Courses
The golfers you play against are all the pros you know, with the exception of the giants like Phil Mickleson and Tiger Woods - no doubt licensing made this tough. But great guys like Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Justin Thomas (cover guy) are there to rankle you chances to win.
The courses are very well done and are true to the IRL ones they attempt to represent. People Beach still has the crazy monster 18. Augusta National, sight of the Master’s tournament, and Royal Troon, sight of the Open championship, are not there though. Some folks using Course Designer attempt to recreate them but they can be hit or miss... and sadly they are subject to frequent take downs for copyright reasons.
Gameplay
When you start up you get a nice tutorial of the basics and some advanced shot shaping techniques. I had never played 2K’s version but if you are familiar with golf sims like EA Tiger Woods, you’ll know what is available. The controls are intuitive and shifting through clubs and aiming is easy.
The control stick swing timing can take some getting used to. I find it hard to go from the Pro controller (more throw in the stick) and the joycon (smaller, less throw). I mostly prefer playing portable and enjoy the feel of the joycon for swinging.
Putting can be a little finicky for this reason as well - the margin of error is very tight. This is kinda nice though as the challenge of nailing birdies and eagles is noticeable. If you want, you can preview the putt with a tracer button... feels kinda cheating so I try not to use this.
The commentary and presentation of the game is fantastic. The announcers seem natural. Some phrases are repeated but they “fit” the moment well. You get cut always to other holes to watch other golfers and your “rival” play. It’s a nice pace factor to the game. You can mash A to blast through these and finish 18 in about 20-30 minutes.
The only weird thing is no crowds. None at all. You and a bunch of pros are by yourselves after a zombie apocalypse or something. It kinda works because of COVID but we know this was a massive performance trade off. Given how great everything else is, you’ll only notice when you approach the signature 18th hole on some courses.
Customizations
You can adjust everything about your players looks, the match play, the difficulty and even your outfits by round (don the power red on the 4th round!). The most impressive settings are with difficulty, where you can slide the CPUs ability to stay at your pace. You can also turn wind off and the swing plane features as well.
Online
I’ve only played a match. It performs pretty well with good internet. You can make a “party” of people and can then join leagues or play rounds together. It seems a lot would be fun with a group if you all like golf.
Performance
The game crashes every other round. I’m sure this is a bug that will be fixed. Luckily every shot is saved and it’s easy to jump back in if you get kicked out of the game. The loading of the menu does take a while though.
During some course loads, there is a bit of lag. Frame rates can drop when flying by or when your ball is landing. If the lag is really bad it can affect your shot. I saw this most when I played other people’s courses that had way too many assets (like 100 cows in the distance). The courses “on the game card” are pretty responsive. If you really want great performance tho, you should buy on PC.
Overall
I really like this game and could see myself having fun with it well after I blast through the career. There are a few small paper cuts and optimizations I hope happen, but the trade offs were fair considering the hardware and optimizing for portability.
I’m sure this will go on sale. I would have been thrilled to pay $30 for this, but I am bored enough and love golf so I took the plunge. I’d say if you love sports sims and golf this is a non brainer and you probably already own it. If you don’t, play some other back catalog and wait for a sale if you are on the fence.
submitted by Place_Infinite to NintendoSwitch [link] [comments]

ETFs

ETFs
"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack." (John Bogle)...
... “aforismo” del creador (o de última el popularizador) del concepto revolucionario del ETF pasivo. ¿Qué se busca? disminuir el riesgo inversor, a través de diluir el riesgo idiosincrático (relativo al activo) con un instrumento, el ETF, que permite exponernos al rendimiento de un sector (IBUY), grupo de activos con alguna particularidad deseada (VIG, VYM), mercado/país (USA, Nasdaq, Corea, B3, etc.) de esta manera si la medida del riesgo es medir la variabilidad o dispersión de rendimientos de un activo (Ej: Nike) transado respecto al SP500 (riesgo idiosincrático), bien podemos elegir invertir en un ETF que lo replique (SPY, IVV) y con eso el solo riesgo que queda es el del conjunto de 500 empresas Top ponderadas por su tamaño (riesgo sistemático; se retira Michel Jordan y no pasa nada, tengo también Adidas y Under Armour).
Luego de la pandemia algunos riesgos idiosincráticos están más representados en SPY, por el peso sideral de 4 o 5 tecnológicas en SP500 pero para arrancar dejémoslo así porque va “casi casi” por ahí.
Los ETFs se comercializan como las acciones por lo que es posible de ser adquiridos por todos aquellos que tengan acceso a una plataforma de trading de un mercado de valores más o menos evolucionado (Merval out por el momento, CEDEARS no conozco)
La idea aqui es transmitir mi modesta experiencia con estos instrumentos anti-miedo. Los Exchange Traded Funds son unos fondos similares a los fondos mutuos (algo así como nuestros FCIs) que nos dan la posibilidad de estar diversificados de una manera práctica, accesible, con eficiencia impositiva y con una liquidez superior. Los hay de todo tipo y una grosera primera aproximación podemos dividirlos en:
ETF Activos: son los que primero salieron al mercado y tienen una gestión de portafolio “activa”, es decir las proporciones de los diferentes activos son elegidas intentando sobrepasar un índice determinado que el fondo replique (El: SP500, FTSE 100, Russell, Nasdaq...etc). Su éxito o fracaso a menudo está relacionado con el de algún gurú proveniente de un hedge fund, family office u otra organización que lo avale y que actúe como “alquimista” del portafolio en busca de un rendimiento diferencial sobre el índice y que además le pague su jugoso honorario. Hoy en día este gestor termina muchas veces siendo el autor de un algoritmo que será la base sobre la que una computadora ejecuta las órdenes de compra-venta en el mercado.
ETF Pasivos: acá lo que se trata es de copiar el rendimiento del índice o activo individual (benchmark) lo mejor posible, por esto la evaluación se hace en base a la dispersión de diferencias que tiene los valores del etf respecto al índice (tracking error). Para lograrlo el fondo compra, de mínima, los activos más representativos del índice objetivo en las proporciones que marca este último. Entonces, esta performance se ve positivamente afectada por dos factores principales, a saber, el costo de administración y la cantidad de dinero que tiene el fondo y que le permitirá representar adecuadamente a todo el universo de activos objetivo, que puede ser muy numeroso. Aquí es bien sencillo, el algoritmo es bien rígido y la eficiencia de costo es superlativa.
Nota: en la actualidad es tal la cantidad de activos en poder de los ETFs, que hay quienes piensan que el sesgo ha creado un desbalance y con ello una deseconomía
Independientemente de aquella división primaria podemos hacer una segunda que es la de los ETF que están “apalancados” (2X, 3X etc.) y los que no lo están (1X), en general para un ETF determinado 1X existe su versión apalancada contra crédito, aumentando mediante esto el volumen transado y permitiendo el magnificar “X” veces sus movimientos alcistas (o bajistas, sadly)
Aburro, pero para finalizar esta intro tenemos también los que son inversos, que buscan moverse en dirección de rentabilidad contraria al activo o índice subyacente. Cada vez aparecen más clasificaciones, de hecho hace poco aparecieron algunos del tipo “filosófico” (pequeña licencia me tomo) que no replican la rentabilidad de un índice sino que siguen una filosofía determinada con una gestión activa (Ej. Contrarian, Dalio*, etc) .
Deseo ante todo transmitir el uso que hago yo del instrumento ETF, la necesidad que cubro con los mismos. Yo los uso como si fueran efectivo líquido, dentro de un portafolio relativamente comprimido con pocas empresas, buscando la seguridad que me da su poca volatilidad y la tranquilidad que por precios relativos me permiten muchas veces no sufrir tanto las caídas por corrección ( menos, claro, el asteroide COVID-19). Por eso priorizo liquidez (volumen transado), performance ( traking error) y costo de gestión bajo (mi máximo ideal es 0.3%). La correlatividad entre estas 3 variables es alta por eso si buscamos usando un scanner ETF de alta liquidez y buena performance es probable que el costo de gestión sea bajo.
Como mi negocio (el que genera mis ingresos día a día) es autofinanciado los ETF son lo primero que compro para ingresar dinero a la cuenta de inversión y lo primero que vendo para hacer retiros y enfrentar con esos fondos las diferentes contingencias que demanda mi actividad. Me ha servido de mucho y me ha permitido que en el largo plazo estos ciclos de compra-venta me dejen una utilidad marginal interesante, incluso con buenos dividendos si logro estar dentro en las fechas ex-dividend, claro.
En diferentes momentos del mercado uso y he usado los siguientes:
VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund)
VYM Vanguard, empresas maduras con dividendos altos
VIG Parecido al anterior pero con el agregado que tienen alto potencial de crecimiento
GLD Con este y con el siguiente tenemos exposición al precio del oro, sin el riesgo de las empresas extractoras que a mi juicio es político y ambiental. En este caso el oro está en el Banco de Londres (como el de Maduro). Nota: Beta de 3 años -0.01 y es caro 0.4%
BAR Idem anterior pero más barato, estando en 0.17%, tiene barras de oro en el London Vault.
BOVA11 Brasil, B3 (ex-bovespa) tiene ETF y este es el más importante, replica el índice de la Bolsa de San Pablo.
..y últimamente *RPAR (Risk Parity): Es carito (0.5%). ETF de ETFs para hacerlo eficiente en el aspecto impositivo. Lo empecé a usar experimentalmente pues me parece interesante porque está basado en el muy disruptivo “All Weather Portfolio” de Ray Dalio, intentado justamente esto, seguir la exitosa “filosofia Dalio” de un ETF que simule un portafolio diversificado de manera que soporte todos los cuatro escenarios (estaciones) posibles de la economía (googleen, es espectacular la idea y seguro no va a ser el único de este tipo dentro de poco)
Los de Sp500 SPY e IVV no los uso porque pesa FAANG que ya tienen su lugar en mi portafolio.
Finalizando, creo que para un inversor con alguna aversión al riesgo son herramientas muy nobles ya que incluso con solo cuatro bien elegidos uno puede tener un lindo portafolio para aburrirse con él, cosa que es clave a mi modesto saber y entender para que la cuenta crezca, ideal si se van a hacer compras escalonadas a lo largo de una vida laboral. Sin ir mas lejos Warren Buffet, quien ha dicho que “la diversificación no tiene sentido si uno sabe lo que hace” a concedido que Bogle es “probablemente” el gestor de fondos más revolucionario de la historia porque ha facilitado el acceso a los mercados de acciones empresariales a mucha gente no especialista, a muy bajo costo y con muy buena gestión de riesgo, confesando que es la herramienta ideal para dejar fondos a resguardo en herencia para el común de los mortales, por encima de los riesgosos, caros y crípticos hedge funds.
Disclaimer: Antes de invertir lean, esto es una intro. Al momento de escribir pienso así pero como diría Keynes “puedo cambiar si la circunstancia cambia” y "No hay nada más peligroso que la búsqueda de una política racional de inversión en un mundo irracional."
Exitos.
submitted by hjoper to merval [link] [comments]

3.10 and the “Laranite Bug”

TL;DR The bug that allows Laranite and all other trade cargo to be bought and sold at high volumes and good prices has been fixed in 3.10 PTU.
Hello traders of the ‘verse! I’m sure plenty of y’all are new from the recent Invictus Flight Week and many of y’all have been enjoying high profits from buying and selling laranite. While there are unfortunately many detrimental bugs, this high amount of laranite going around is due to a “positive” bug, which so far has not occurred in the 3.10 PTU.
To explain what this bug is, I will first go into how trading worked in 3.8. Every station, mining outpost, and city has it’s own inventory that it will buy and sell from. This inventory is server based and will slowly regenerate over time. A fresh server will start with a full inventory (empty in the case of places you sell to). There is also a global price that changes based off supply and demand, lowering profits on high traffic routes.
To see the raw numbers head over to scunpacked.com/commodities, which shows the location, base price, percentage of inventory it will refresh every minute (it typically will do this every 10 minutes), and how much it will refresh. This is an unintuitive way to show things, but it’s what the raw information is. The formula I use to find the max inventory is 1/{refresh percentage}*{refresh quantity}. With this, you can see that while drugs are highly profitable, they only move in small quantities and would take a long time to fill up a caterpillar.
For a more informative style, I recommend www.gallog.co/trading/, which goes ahead and shows the refresh rate and max inventory for commodities in a far more intuitive way. This site is also crowd sourced to update the commodity prices as they globally change, allowing you to find more profitable routes.
Sometime in 3.9, there was a bug that sprung up that caused all trading locations to do two things: every refresh cycle (~10 minutes) filled the location to max/default inventory and not track prices globally, defaulting to base prices.
The now famous laranite run from Arial to Lorville was a lot rougher before. Some runs that I recorded in March showed that only 4,842 units of laranite (each mining site on Arial has 1,389 per minute, up to 99,928 units in it’s inventory) was available for purchase as Lathan (I also traded titanium, but that isn’t important right now) and that I was only able to make 3 aUEC per unit. With this bug, I can fill up a caterpillar with 56,400 units of laranite and make 6aUEC per unit. This is a major increase in profit margins, with my margins being 11%, requiring 9 runs like this to make up for each load I lose to pirates, ship crashes, and the Dread Pirate 30k. With the trade bug, the profit margins go up to 25% or 4 loads per load lost.
I am getting excited for things to slow down in 3.10 and for the challenge to increase. Maybe that’s just me. I don’t know whether or not there will be a wipe (other than helmet wipes) in 3.10. I am pretty surprised that they left the bug in there, it’s going to lead to a bunch of disappointment in 3.10 when laranite isn’t as available for trading, which is the point of this post, preparing y’all for what may come. A few good runs are what little laranite you can find on Arial and fill the rest of hold with titanium. Scrap running from R&Rs to Port Olisar is a cheap and safe route. Tram & Myers diamonds are still available for those strong in will, but don’t blame me for when pirates/griefers blow you up there. If you want to learn more about future plans that CIG has for trading and the economy, you can learn about the Quantum NPC simulation they are working on from a Star Citizen panel here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8VFw1F-olQ.
submitted by _TheForgeMaster to starcitizen [link] [comments]

NVidia – Know What You Own

How many people really understand what they’re buying, especially when it comes to highly specialized hardware companies? Most NVidia investors seem to be relying on a vague idea of how the company should thrive “in the future”, as their GPUs are ostensibly used for Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, holograms, etc. Having been shocked by how this company is represented in the media, I decided to lay out how this business works, doing my part to fight for reality. With what’s been going on in markets, I don’t like my chances but here goes:
Let’s start with…
How does NVDA make money?
NVDA is in the business of semiconductor design. As a simplified image in your head, you can imagine this as designing very detailed and elaborate posters. Their engineers create circuit patterns for printing onto semiconductor wafers. NVDA then pays a semiconductor foundry (the printer – generally TSMC) to create chips with those patterns on them.
Simply put, NVDA’s profits represent the difference between the price at which they can sell those chips, less the cost of printing, and less the cost of paying their engineers to design them.
Notably, after the foundry prints the chips, NVDA also has to pay (I say pay, but really it is more like “sell at a discount to”) their “add-in board” (AIB) partners to stick the chips onto printed circuit boards (what you might imagine as green things with a bunch of capacitors on them). That leads to the final form in which buyers experience the GPU.
What is a GPU?
NVDA designs chips called GPUs (Graphical Processing Units). Initially, GPUs were used for the rapid processing and creation of images, but their use cases have expanded over time. You may be familiar with the CPU (Central Processing Unit). CPUs sit at the core of a computer system, doing most of the calculation, taking orders from the operating system (e.g. Windows, Linux), etc. AMD and Intel make CPUs. GPUs assist the CPU with certain tasks. You can think of the CPU as having a few giant very powerful engines. The GPU has a lot of small much less powerful engines. Sometimes you have to do a lot of really simple tasks that don’t require powerful engines to complete. Here, the act of engaging the powerful engines is a waste of time, as you end up spending most of your time revving them up and revving them down. In that scenario, it helps the CPU to hand that task over to the GPU in order to “accelerate” the completion of the task. The GPU only revs up a small engine for each task, and is able to rev up all the small engines simultaneously to knock out a large number of these simple tasks at the same time. Remember the GPU has lots of engines. The GPU also has an edge in interfacing a lot with memory but let’s not get too technical.
Who uses NVDA’s GPUs?
There are two main broad end markets for NVDA’s GPUs – Gaming and Professional. Let’s dig into each one:
The Gaming Market:
A Bit of Ancient History (Skip if impatient)
GPUs were first heavily used for gaming in arcades. They then made their way to consoles, and finally PCs. NVDA started out in the PC phase of GPU gaming usage. They weren’t the first company in the space, but they made several good moves that ultimately led to a very strong market position. Firstly, they focused on selling into OEMs – guys like the equivalent of today’s DELL/HP/Lenovo – , which allowed a small company to get access to a big market without having to create a lot of relationships. Secondly, they focused on the design aspect of the GPU, and relied on their Asian supply chain to print the chip, to package the chip and to install in on a printed circuit board – the Asian supply chain ended up being the best in semis. But the insight that really let NVDA dominate was noticing that some GPU manufacturers were focusing on keeping hardware-accelerated Transform and Lighting as a Professional GPU feature. As a start-up, with no professional GPU business to disrupt, NVidia decided their best ticket into the big leagues was blowing up the market by including this professional grade feature into their gaming product. It worked – and this was a real masterstroke – the visual and performance improvements were extraordinary. 3DFX, the initial leader in PC gaming GPUs, was vanquished, and importantly it happened when funding markets shut down with the tech bubble bursting and after 3DFX made some large ill-advised acquisitions. Consequently 3DFX, went from hero to zero, and NVDA bought them for a pittance out of bankruptcy, acquiring the best IP portfolio in the industry.
Some more Modern History
This is what NVDA’s pure gaming card revenue looks like over time – NVDA only really broke these out in 2005 (note by pure, this means ex-Tegra revenues):
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394577731223552/tumblr_Ikb8g9Cu9sxh2ERno
So what is the history here? Well, back in the late 90s when GPUs were first invented, they were required to play any 3D game. As discussed in the early history above, NVDA landed a hit product to start with early and got a strong burst of growth: revenues of 160M in 1998 went to 1900M in 2002. But then NVDA ran into strong competition from ATI (later purchased and currently owned by AMD). While NVDA’s sales struggled to stay flat from 2002 to 2004, ATI’s doubled from 1Bn to 2Bn. NVDA’s next major win came in 2006, with the 8000 series. ATI was late with a competing product, and NVDA’s sales skyrocketed – as can be seen in the graph above. With ATI being acquired by AMD they were unfocused for some time, and NVDA was able to keep their lead for an extended period. Sales slowed in 2008/2009 but that was due to the GFC – people don’t buy expensive GPU hardware in recessions.
And then we got to 2010 and the tide changed. Growth in desktop PCs ended. Here is a chart from Statista:
📷https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394674172919808/tumblr_OgCnNwTyqhMhAE9r9
This resulted in two negative secular trends for Nvidia. Firstly, with the decline in popularity of desktop PCs, growth in gaming GPUs faded as well (below is a chart from Jon Peddie). Note that NVDA sells discrete GPUs, aka DT (Desktop) Discrete. Integrated GPUs are mainly made by Intel (these sit on the motherboard or with the CPU).
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394688079200256/tumblr_rTtKwOlHPIVUj8e7h
You can see from the chart above that discrete desktop GPU sales are fading faster than integrated GPU sales. This is the other secular trend hurting NVDA’s gaming business. Integrated GPUs are getting better and better, taking over a wider range of tasks that were previously the domain of the discrete GPU. Surprisingly, the most popular eSports game of recent times – Fortnite – only requires Intel HD 4000 graphics – an Integrated GPU from 2012!
So at this point you might go back to NVDA’s gaming sales, and ask the question: What happened in 2015? How is NVDA overcoming these secular trends?
The answer consists of a few parts.Firstly, AMD dropped the ball in 2015. As you can see in this chart, sourced from 3DCenter, AMD market share was halved in 2015, due to a particularly poor product line-up:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394753459994624/tumblr_J7vRw9y0QxMlfm6Xd
Following this, NVDA came out with Pascal in 2016 – a very powerful offering in the mid to high end part of the GPU market. At the same time, AMD was focusing on rebuilding and had no compelling mid or high end offerings. AMD mainly focused on maintaining scale in the very low end. Following that came 2017 and 2018: AMD’s offering was still very poor at the time, but cryptomining drove demand for GPUs to new levels, and AMD’s GPUs were more compelling from a price-performance standpoint for crypto mining initially, perversely leading to AMD gaining share. NVDA quickly remedied that by improving their drivers to better mine crypto, regaining their relative positioning, and profiting in a big way from the crypto boom. Supply that was calibrated to meet gaming demand collided with cryptomining demand and Average Selling Prices of GPUs shot through the roof. Cryptominers bought top of the line GPUs aggressively.
A good way to see changes in crypto demand for GPUs is the mining profitability of Ethereum:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394769378443264/tumblr_cmBtR9gm8T2NI9jmQ
This leads us to where we are today. 2019 saw gaming revenues drop for NVDA. Where are they likely to head?
The secular trends of falling desktop sales along with falling discrete GPU sales have reasserted themselves, as per the Jon Peddie research above. Cryptomining profitability has collapsed.
AMD has come out with a new architecture, NAVI, and the 5700XT – the first Iteration, competes effectively with NVDA in the mid-high end space on a price/performance basis. This is the first real competition from AMD since 2014.
NVDA can see all these trends, and they tried to respond. Firstly, with volumes clearly declining, and likely with a glut of second-hand GPUs that can make their way to gamers over time from the crypto space, NVDA decided to pursue a price over volume strategy. They released their most expensive set of GPUs by far in the latest Turing series. They added a new feature, Ray Tracing, by leveraging the Tensor Cores they had created for Professional uses, hoping to use that as justification for higher prices (more on this in the section on Professional GPUs). Unfortunately for NVDA, gamers have responded quite poorly to Ray Tracing – it caused performance issues, had poor support, poor adoption, and the visual improvements in most cases are not particularly noticeable or relevant.
The last recession led to gaming revenues falling 30%, despite NVDA being in a very strong position at the time vis-à-vis AMD – this time around their position is quickly slipping and it appears that the recession is going to be bigger. Additionally, the shift away from discrete GPUs in gaming continues.
To make matters worse for NVDA, AMD won the slots in both the New Xbox and the New PlayStation, coming out later this year. The performance of just the AMD GPU in those consoles looks to be competitive with NVidia products that currently retail for more than the entire console is likely to cost. Consider that usually you have to pair that NVidia GPU with a bunch of other expensive hardware. The pricing and margin impact of this console cycle on NVDA is likely to be very substantially negative.
It would be prudent to assume a greater than 30% fall in gaming revenues from the very elevated 2019 levels, with likely secular decline to follow.
The Professional Market:
A Bit of Ancient History (again, skip if impatient)
As it turns out, graphical accelerators were first used in the Professional market, long before they were employed for Gaming purposes. The big leader in the space was a company called Silicon Graphics, who sold workstations with custom silicon optimised for graphical processing. Their sales were only $25Mn in 1985, but by 1997 they were doing 3.6Bn in revenue – truly exponential growth. Unfortunately for them, from that point on, discrete GPUs took over, and their highly engineered, customised workstations looked exorbitantly expensive in comparison. Sales sank to 500mn by 2006 and, with no profits in sight, they ended up filing for bankruptcy in 2009. Competition is harsh in the semiconductor industry.
Initially, the Professional market centred on visualisation and design, but it has changed over time. There were a lot of players and lot of nuance, but I am going to focus on more recent times, as they are more relevant to NVidia.
Some More Modern History
NVDA’s Professional business started after its gaming business, but we don’t have revenue disclosures that show exactly when it became relevant. This is what we do have – going back to 2005:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394785029472256/tumblr_fEcYAzdstyh6tqIsI
In the beginning, Professional revenues were focused on the 3D visualisation end of the spectrum, with initial sales going into workstations that were edging out the customised builds made by Silicon Graphics. Fairly quickly, however, GPUs added more and more functionality and started to turn into general parallel data processors rather than being solely optimised towards graphical processing.
As this change took place, people in scientific computing noticed, and started using GPUs to accelerate scientific workloads that involve very parallel computation, such as matrix manipulation. This started at the workstation level, but by 2007 NVDA decided to make a new line-up of Tesla series cards specifically suited to scientific computing. The professional segment now have several points of focus:
  1. GPUs used in workstations for things such as CAD graphical processing (Quadro Line)
  2. GPUs used in workstations for computational workloads such as running engineering simulations (Quadro Line)
  3. GPUs used in workstations for machine learning applications (Quadro line.. but can use gaming cards as well for this)
  4. GPUs used by enterprise customers for high performance computing (such as modelling oil wells) (Tesla Line)
  5. GPUs used by enterprise customers for machine learning projects (Tesla Line)
  6. GPUs used by hyperscalers (mostly for machine learning projects) (Tesla Line)
In more recent times, given the expansion of the Tesla line, NVDA has broken up reporting into Professional Visualisation (Quadro Line) and Datacenter (Tesla Line). Here are the revenue splits since that reporting started:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394798232158208/tumblr_3AdufrCWUFwLgyQw2
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394810632601600/tumblr_2jmajktuc0T78Juw7
It is worth stopping here and thinking about the huge increase in sales delivered by the Tesla line. The reason for this huge boom is the sudden increase in interest in numerical techniques for machine learning. Let’s go on a brief detour here to understand what machine learning is, because a lot of people want to hype it but not many want to tell you what it actually is. I have the misfortune of being very familiar with the industry, which prevented me from buying into the hype. Oops – sometimes it really sucks being educated.
What is Machine Learning?
At a very high level, machine learning is all about trying to get some sort of insight out of data. Most of the core techniques used in machine learning were developed a long time ago, in the 1950s and 1960s. The most common machine learning technique, which most people have heard of and may be vaguely familiar with, is called regression analysis. Regression analysis involves fitting a line through a bunch of datapoints. The most common type of regression analysis is called “Ordinary Least Squares” OLS regression, and that type of regression has a “closed form” solution, which means that there is a very simple calculation you can do to fit an OLS regression line to data.
As it happens, fitting a line through points is not only easy to do, it also tends to be the main machine learning technique that people want to use, because it is very intuitive. You can make good sense of what the data is telling you and can understand the machine learning model you are using. Obviously, regression analysis doesn’t require a GPU!
However, there is another consideration in machine learning: if you want to use a regression model, you still need a human to select the data that you want to fit the line through. Also, sometimes the relationship doesn’t look like a line, but rather it might look like a curve. In this case, you need a human to “transform” the data before you fit a line through it in order to make the relationship linear.
So people had another idea here: what if instead of getting a person to select the right data to analyse, and the right model to apply, you could just get a computer to do that? Of course the problem with that is that computers are really stupid. They have no preconceived notion of what data to use or what relationship would make sense, so what they do is TRY EVERYTHING! And everything involves trying a hell of a lot of stuff. And trying a hell of a lot of stuff, most of which is useless garbage, involves a huge amount of computation. People tried this for a while through to the 1980s, decided it was useless, and dropped it… until recently.
What changed? Well we have more data now, and we have a lot more computing power, so we figured lets have another go at it. As it happens, the premier technique for trying a hell of a lot of stuff (99.999% of which is garbage you throw away) is called “Deep Learning”. Deep learning is SUPER computationally intensive, and that computation happens to involve a lot of matrix multiplication. And guess what just happens to have been doing a lot of matrix multiplication? GPUs!
Here is a chart that, for obvious reasons, lines up extremely well with the boom in Tesla GPU sales:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394825774989312/tumblr_IZ3ayFDB0CsGdYVHW
Now we need to realise a few things here. Deep Learning is not some magic silver bullet. There are specific applications where it has proven very useful – primarily areas that have a very large number of very weak relationships between bits of data that sum up into strong relationships. An example of ones of those is Google Translate. On the other hand, in most analytical tasks, it is most useful to have an intuitive understanding of the data and to fit a simple and sensible model to it that is explainable. Deep learning models are not explainable in an intuitive manner. This is not only because they are complicated, but also because their scattershot technique of trying everything leaves a huge amount of garbage inside the model that cancels itself out when calculating the answer, but it is hard to see how it cancels itself out when stepping through it.
Given the quantum of hype on Deep learning and the space in general, many companies are using “Deep Learning”, “Machine Learning” and “AI” as marketing. Not many companies are actually generating significant amounts of tangible value from Deep Learning.
Back to the Competitive Picture
For the Tesla Segment
So NVDA happened to be in the right place at the right time to benefit from the Deep Learning hype. They happened to have a product ready to go and were able to charge a pretty penny for their product. But what happens as we proceed from here?
Firstly, it looks like the hype from Deep Learning has crested, which is not great from a future demand perspective. Not only that, but we really went from people having no GPUs, to people having GPUs. The next phase is people upgrading their old GPUs. It is much harder to sell an upgrade than to make the first sale.
Not only that, but GPUs are not the ideal manifestation of silicon for Deep Learning. NVDA themselves effectively admitted that with their latest iteration in the Datacentre, called Ampere. High Performance Computing, which was the initial use case for Tesla GPUs, was historically all about double precision floating point calculations (FP64). High precision calculations are required for simulations in aerospace/oil & gas/automotive.
NVDA basically sacrificed HPC and shifted further towards Deep Learning with Ampere, announced last Thursday. The FP64 performance of the A100 (the latest Ampere chip) increased a fairly pedestrian 24% from the V100, increasing from 7.8 to 9.7 TF. Not a surprise that NVDA lost El Capitan to AMD, given this shift away from a focus on HPC. Instead, NVDA jacked up their Tensor Cores (i.e. not the GPU cores) and focused very heavily on FP16 computation (a lot less precise than FP64). As it turns out, FP16 is precise enough for Deep Learning, and NVDA recognises that. The future industry standard is likely to be BFloat 16 – the format pioneered by Google, who lead in Deep Learning. Ampere now does 312 TF of BF16, which compares to the 420 TF of Google’s TPU V3 – Google’s Machine Learning specific processor. Not quite up to the 2018 board from Google, but getting better – if they cut out all of the Cuda cores and GPU functionality maybe they could get up to Google’s spec.
And indeed this is the problem for NVDA: when you make a GPU it has a large number of different use cases, and you provide a single product that meets all of these different use cases. That is a very hard thing to do, and explains why it has been difficult for competitors to muscle into the GPU space. On the other hand, when you are making a device that does one thing, such as deep learning, it is a much simpler thing to do. Google managed to do it with no GPU experience and is still ahead of NVDA. It is likely that Intel will be able to enter this space successfully, as they have widely signalled with the Xe.
There is of course the other large negative driver for Deep Learning, and that is the recession we are now in. Demand for GPU instances on Amazon has collapsed across the board, as evidenced by the fall in pricing. The below graph shows one example: this data is for renting out a single Tesla V100 GPU on AWS, which isthe typical thing to do in an early exploratory phase for a Deep Learning model:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618396177958944768/tumblr_Q86inWdeCwgeakUvh
With Deep Learning not delivering near-term tangible results, it is the first thing being cut. On their most recent conference call, IBM noted weakness in their cognitive division (AI), and noted weaker sales of their power servers, which is the line that houses Enterprise GPU servers at IBM. Facebook cancelled their AI residencies for this year, and Google pushed theirs out. Even if NVDA can put in a good quarter due to their new product rollout (Ampere), the future is rapidly becoming a very stormy place.
For the Quadro segment
The Quadro segment has been a cash cow for a long time, generating dependable sales and solid margins. AMD just decided to rock the boat a bit. Sensing NVDA’s focus on Deep Learning, AMD seems to be focusing on HPC – the Radeon VII announced recently with a price point of $1899 takes aim at NVDAs most expensive Quadro, the GV100, priced at $8999. It does 6.5 TFLOPS of FP64 Double precision, whereas the GV100 does 7.4 – talk about shaking up a quiet segment.
Pulling things together
Let’s go back to what NVidia fundamentally does – paying their engineers to design chips, getting TSMC to print those chips, and getting board partners in Taiwan to turn them into the final product.
We have seen how a confluence of several pieces of extremely good fortune lined up to increase NVidia’s sales and profits tremendously: first on the Gaming side, weak competition from AMD until 2014, coupled with a great product in form of Pascal in 2016, followed by a huge crypto driven boom in 2017 and 2018, and on the Professional side, a sudden and unexpected increase in interest in Deep Learning driving Tesla demand from 2017-2019 sky high.
It is worth noting what these transient factors have done to margins. When unexpected good things happen to a chip company, sales go up a lot, but there are no costs associated with those sales. Strong demand means that you can sell each chip for a higher price, but no additional design work is required, and you still pay the printer, TSMC, the same amount of money. Consequently NVDA’s margins have gone up substantially: well above their 11.9% long term average to hit a peak of 33.2%, and more recently 26.5%:
📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618396192166100992/tumblr_RiWaD0RLscq4midoP
The question is, what would be a sensible margin going forward? Obviously 33% operating margin would attract a wall of competition and get competed away, which is why they can only be temporary. However, NVidia has shifted to having a greater proportion of its sales coming from non-OEM, and has a greater proportion of its sales coming from Professional rather than gaming. As such, maybe one can be generous and say NVDA can earn an 18% average operating margin over the next cycle. We can sense check these margins, using Intel. Intel has a long term average EBIT margin of about 25%. Intel happens to actually print the chips as well, so they collect a bigger fraction of the final product that they sell. NVDA, since it only does the design aspect, can’t earn a higher EBIT margin than Intel on average over the long term.
Tesla sales have likely gone too far and will moderate from here – perhaps down to a still more than respectable $2bn per year. Gaming resumes the long-term slide in discrete GPUs, which will likely be replaced by integrated GPUs to a greater and greater extent over time. But let’s be generous and say it maintains $3.5 Bn Per year for the add in board, and let’s assume we keep getting $750mn odd of Nintendo Switch revenues(despite that product being past peak of cycle, with Nintendo themselves forecasting a sales decline). Let’s assume AMD struggles to make progress in Quadro, despite undercutting NVDA on price by 75%, with continued revenues at $1200. Add on the other 1.2Bn of Automotive, OEM and IP (I am not even counting the fact that car sales have collapsed and Automotive is likely to be down big), and we would end up with revenues of $8.65 Bn, at an average operating margin of 20% through the cycle that would have $1.75Bn of operating earnings power, and if I say that the recent Mellanox acquisition manages to earn enough to pay for all the interest on NVDAs debt, and I assume a tax rate of 15% we would have around $1.5Bn in Net income.
This company currently has a market capitalisation of $209 Bn. It blows my mind that it trades on 139x what I consider to be fairly generous earnings – earnings that NVidia never even got close to seeing before the confluence of good luck hit them. But what really stuns me is the fact that investors are actually willing to extrapolate this chain of unlikely and positive events into the future.
Shockingly, Intel has a market cap of 245Bn, only 40Bn more than NVDA, but Intel’s sales and profits are 7x higher. And while Intel is facing competition from AMD, it is much more likely to hold onto those sales and profits than NVDA is. These are absolutely stunning valuation disparities.
If I didn’t see NVDA’s price, and I started from first principles and tried to calculate a prudent price for the company I would have estimated a$1.5Bn normalised profit, maybe on a 20x multiple giving them the benefit of the doubt despite heading into a huge recession, and considering the fact that there is not much debt and the company is very well run. That would give you a market cap of $30Bn, and a share price of $49. And it is currently $339. Wow. Obviously I’m short here!
submitted by HyperInflation2020 to stocks [link] [comments]

Tales from the Gun Show: Independence Day Edition

Hello there internet! I know you've all missed me. I just worked the FABULOUS Baton Rouge gun show right here in the heart of cajun country, and have I got stories.
Do you want to hear stories about dealers selling $350 SCCY 9mm pistols? Or Magtech 9mm for $550/thousand? Or how I sold 14 guns in one day for a new PB on saturday? Or how I set my gross sales for a gun show weekend PB?
No. You don't want to hear that.
You clicked on this thread for the stories. And stories you are going to get!
My loadout was epic. Glocks, HK's, Sigs, Colt 6920's, Springfield Hellcats, you name it I had it in stock. And priced accordingly. I set everything up the night before and I had even more stuff to bring in Saturday morning.
The PA crackled and announced all guns should be tied and ready to go and at 9AM the masses came in looking for deals. And in some cases, they found some.
I had one guy saunter over looking for an S&W M&P 15-22. I only had two left in stock and not enough space on the tables for them. He says he'll take one sight unseen, I do his paperwork and get his money and tell him to show up at the show tomorrow and I'll have it ready for him to pickup. He's got his ID and everything together and it's smooth sailing. $500 in hundreds and he's on his way. I run him through the computer and I've got an instant approval. Woo.
My login screen warns me that background checks are taking 24 hours.
I had a feeling this would happen. I velcroed a small dry erase board to the wall just above my table that states: ALL BACKGROUND CHECKS ARE TAKING ________ MINUTES to be updated as the day gets weirder. I wipe off the minutes part and write "24 HOURS" in red dry erase marker.
I can hear the crowd behind me gasp and go "24 hours? I need a gun NOW!" in their heads and the pro salesman inside my noggin cracks a smile, leans back in the eames chair and puts his feet up on the ottoman. I have just implanted the most powerful driver of sales ever: fear.
Boy howdy, did it work.
The next hour is epic. I write ALL my Gen 5 Glock 19's up at $850. I am sold out by 11AM. Everything is flying off the table. Shield 9mm's, Stripped lowers, EZ shields, $300 Ruger LCP's, $700 Glock 43's.
What's the best $850 gun? An HK VP9, Glock 19 or Kel Tec Sub 2000? Fuck if I know. I sold one of each of them at that price.
It is nonstop asses and elbows and cash coming in left and right. I cannot count the money and run 4473's fast enough.
Noon flies by and I'm unable to touch my roast beef sandwich. I'm wearing gloves and a mask. This fucking mask SUCKS. It STINKS. It's brand new and it smells god-awful like someone used it to wipe their ass before packaging it and selling it in the store.
I don't shake anyones hand but I do count the money. The first lull hits at 1345. I ask my numismatist neighbor to watch the table as I go to the bathroom and wash my hands several times. I scarf down my sandwich fast and by 3PM things have calmed down. Crazy day. People asking me over and over for Taurus junk, Glock 43X's, Glock 48's, Glock 19 Gen 5's etc.
1: Hey do you have a Glock Generation 17?
FC: I will be dead in the cold cold ground before Glock ships a generation 17
1: Oh I meant a Glock 17
FC: right here
1: Are you seriously asking $850 for a Glock 17?
FC: Not asking. Getting.
I gesture to the person filling out a 4473 who has just asked me to write up a Glock 17 Generation 5 MOS for $850 and he nods with affirmation that that is in fact the price.
It is explained to this guy that there is not a single dealer in the ENTIRE GUN SHOW that has ANY glock pistols for sale from the 17 buyer since he's gotten here. I am the only one with inventory left. I debate hiking my prices another $50 but decide not to.
Some more folks saunter up
1: Do you have a ruger RS 9?
FC: ruger does not make an RS 9
1: Sure they do! It's called the service 9 now
FC: Can you google a photo for me?
1: I only use duckduckgo
FC: Fine, show me what an RS 9 looks like and let me see
(15 minutes of furious duckduckgoing ensues with no results)
FC: Are you sure it's an RS9?
1: I'm positive!
FC: Are you sure it couldn't be something else?
1: It's an RS9! I'm sure of it!
FC: Look at this
(FC shows image of Ruger SR9)
1: That's it!
FC: See how it says SR9?
1: Yeah, service 9 right?
FC: No, SR9 is SR9.
1: Then who makes the service 9?
FC: I don't think that's a thing.
1: Sure it is!
(More fuckfuckgo ensues, and it is abundantly clear that RS9 = SR9 = Service 9 = Security 9)
I have an old lady and her husband walk up and she picks up a Glock 19. Asks me if I take trades. I say sure.
1: It's a ruger revolver.
FC: What model?
1: Ruger
FC: No, what model? You're saying hey, I own a ford.
1: Oh okay. It's a Ruger 38. It shoots 38.
FC: I need a little more than that. What kind is it.
1: Oh I see. It's a revolver.
FC: Your statement is like "hey, I need an oil filter. I have a ford car" - ford makes lots of cars, ruger makes lots of guns.
1: What would a model sound like?
FC: SP101, GP100, Single 6, 22/45, SR22, LC9
1: Oh I have no idea what it is
FC: Bring it in and I'll take a look. But I only trade when I can make money.
Wrote a Sig 1911 up for $1000 as my last sale of the day. I head home, I am beat.
My neighbors took advantage of the fireworks store and their buy one get 9 free special and have enough mortars and bottle rockets to simulate Falliujah, circa 2004. They're shooting fireworks well past 1AM. Fuck me to tears.
Day 2
I wake up late and get to the show late. I kick off the show 15 minutes late and I have a guy trying to buy a Glock 19 from me. His ID does not have his current address and does not match up with the 4473. He asks if it will be a problem. I say it's no problem just get me something with your current address on it before the firearm releases.
1: But the dealer on the other side of the hall had NO PROBLEM taking this ID!
FC: I've made a living on my attention to detail. The federal regulation book says you need current ID.
1: Never mind! Gimme my ID back!
He snatches the clipboard and rips his ID from the board and walks away in a huff. His girl tries to apologize. I roll my eyes. Not my circus, not my elephants.
The morning starts off slow, I'm sleepy but it's not a total snoozefest. A very nice lady came by and picked up a PWS Mod 2 without argument on the price,
I wrote up another couple guns before lunch. One person has the WORST HANDWRITING ON THE FACE OF THE PLANET. I mean, it's bad. I emailed my brother who works as a pharmacist and said "hey, can you read this?" and he said "It looks like it says 492 milligrams of penicilin? what am I reading?"
Yeah.
The rest of the show goes on, I write up a few more glocks and I deliver everything that I wrote yesterday once the background checks come back. Everyone is super nice and polite. One lady stops by and she cannot decide between the Glock 17 Gen 5 MOS and the Sig P238. She asks if she can get a deal on both.
I look up at her and her life partner and this is the precise moment I was waiting for all weekend.
You see gentle readers... some guys like to go get drunk and party. Others like to hang glide or skydive. They like that adrenaline rush. Me? I like the deals. I love to make deals. Nobody makes deals like this America. Nobody. Not China. Not Crooked Hillary. Not Lyin Ted Cruz. Believe me, these deals are going to make America great again. You will be sick and tired of the deals that I make. Unprecedented deals.
I gesture for her to come in a little closer and put on my best sotto voice.
FC: I don't normally do this, but just for you.......if you take both guns. I'll throw in one of these. I don't normally do this.
FC reaches under the table and pulls out a mega pack of Charmin Ultra Strong TP and places it on top of the PD trade in Glock 17's and 21's.
I slap the top of the package triumphantly.
FC: You two can have all the Chipotle you want with this bad boy!
1 looks at me with the "you cannot be serious" face
2 looks at me with the "you know this isn't a bad deal" face
1: Is this a joke?
FC: Nope! I'll write both of em up right now, you get the guns AND the TP!
1: This is......I don't even know what to think. Lisa?
2: That's Charmin.
1: Are you seriously considering this?
2: Everybody poops! Make the deal!
1 pulls out the Amex. I write up both the guns. They leave happy with their guns and TP. I'm sure it all fits in the back of the subaru outback.
I write up a few more items and near the end of the show, three guys show up. One is on the phone talking rapidly in a foreign language. He waves me over.
1: The police trade Glock 17's. This all you have?
FC: The three on the table is all I got.
1: I’ll take three of these Glock 17’s. Make me a deal.
FC: $2100 cash on all three.
  1. CASH?
FC: Cash out the door.
1: Deal
(I hand over clipboard)
1, 2 and 3 begin talking in machine gun Romanian. 1 has taken a seat and 3 is filling out the paperwork. I say what the fuck. 3 keeps filling out the form. I rip it off the clipboard, Hand it to 1 and tell him to fill it out. He completes the form.
1: I only want one now
FC: you just said you wanted three
2: yeah If you’re not going to work a deal on three he only wants to buy one
Me: who is he?
1: I’m buying
Me: no, who’s the gun for?
2: it’s for his father
1: It's for me
FC: What?
1: it’s for me
2: It's for his father!
FC: then why isn’t your father here?
The looks on their faces tell me everything. They are shitty poker players. The phone and the machinegun romanian, he was a straw doing a buy on behalf of another party. I call shenannigans.
FC: These aren't for you are they?
1: They're for me!
2: They're for his father! come on! His father wants him to have a gun for him too
3: let’s get out of here we can take our money elsewhere gimme my id
Me: it’s not your ID, it’s 1’s ID. Who's ID is this?
3 tears the clipboard out of my hand, takes his ID off the board and I don’t speak Romanian but these guys are now pissed at me
Total people I’ve ticked off today: 4
I didn't choose this life. So now I've got a totally complete 4473 that I need to fill out for three PD trade Glock 17's. I look down at the address. It's three hours away.
It's in ATF Jane's district. You all remember ATF Jane?
Jane puts bad people in jail and likes Shake Shack. We get along SPLENDIDLY. In fact, I consulted her on the firearms/stalking/restraining order article I wrote about Megan and her Ex. She's a super professional federal law enforcement superstar in my book.
Well, time to make a call. I get her VM and leave her a message as I pack up everything and count my cash. 21 guns for the weekend. $13k in sales for one gun show at coronagunrun margins make me one happy boy.
My investments in the collapse of society are now paying dividends in spades!
I'm driving home and ATF Jane returns my call. I tell her the story about the Rumanian gypsy straw purchase ring I had to shutdown.
ATF: You have got to be shitting me
FC: Nope. The guys literally ran their mouth and made me shut it down.
ATF: What a bunch of idiots.
FC: Yeah, they were buying from a few dealers judging by their bags and their haul. I think there might be an investigation warranted.
ATF: Thanks for the tip! Let me know if I can help you out in any way!
I look down at my watch, it's 645PM and I'm too tired to cook tonight. I pull the F350 into the Olive Garden parking lot, head in for dinner and the place is PACKED.There's a few people in the bar but not too many, everyone wants tables. I can see other salesmen on their laptops so I know the wifi is up. This is a good sign. I take out my laptop and write this out in the bar from a high top as I feast on breadsticks and chicken gnocchi soup.
My phone rings halfway into my second bowl of creamy chicken gnocchi goodness.
FC: Go for Will
1: hey man, I saw your post on armslist
FC: Okay, how can I help you?
1: I need a gun. You got a glock fawty?
FC: What model? 22, 23, 27, 35 or what?
1: aw man you got more than one?
FC: I have four to five hundred guns for sale at any given moment. What are you looking for?
1: aw hell yeah! lemme tell you what i need! I need some dracos, mini dracos. got any?
FC: no, sorry. I just did the gun show this weekend and I sold out of a lot of stuff.
1: What about an AR pistol? You got any of those?
FC: I got one Sig 516 pistol left in stock
1: will that shoot 223 AND 556?
FC: Sure, chamber is cut wide enough
1: yeah that'll work. When can we meet? I got CASH. Straight cash yo!
FC: Why don't you come down tomorrow, I'll get your cash and do your paperwork. Three day wait if you don't have a concealed.
1: WHAT DO YOU MEAN PAPERWORK?
FC: You gotta do paperwork, is that a problem?
1: I'm looking for a STRAIGHT CASH DEAL man I don't want to do no paperwork, I want to just cash and carry same day!
FC: You want to make one trip and pickup?
1: Yeah man!
FC: Okay no problem, just give me your credit card and when your wait clears come in and pick everything up.
1: Yo I'm three hours away! Why you gotta make me do paperwork?
FC: What's the problem here? You don't trust me?
1: I don't trust you! I want to just give you cash to not do paperwork. Like I'll give you $1000 extra so I can get everything without a wait.
(Note: I'm having this conversation ON THE PHONE IN THE BAR of the Olive Garden with all the other diners in earshot. This is where it gets good.)
FC: Let me get this right. You want to pay me $1000 extra just so you don't want to have to do a waiting period and paperwork?
1: yeah! thats right!
FC: Why's that worth that much more to you?
1: I got a felony so I can't do no paperwork
FC: So it sounds like you got a felony and you got cash to spend and you want a no paperwork deal on a bunch of guns.
1: that's right! So can you help me?
FC: Where you at?
1: I'm outside Mobile, about three hours away
FC: Okay here's what I'm gonna do. I probably can't help you, but here's what I'm gonna do. Whats the best number for you? I got a buddy of mine from high school who works with guys like you all the time. I'm going to give him a call and give him your number and if he wants to meet up with you, he's gonna set that up - you're talking to him from now on and not me. Got it?
1: yeah man that would be great! have him call me or text me here's my digits (he gives me number and I write it down on a cocktail napkin)
FC: Okay I'll pass it along - no promises
1: thanks nigga!
I hang up the phone. I take a deep breath and smile.
So, I told you that story to tell you another story. Back when I was in high school, I was a real hellraiser. One of the guys that I went to Central High with went LE. He started as a sleepy road cop and promoted to narcotics detective. His claim to fame is busting a bigtime celebrity with drugs and basically made his career on that arrest. Since he was USELESS for undercover work after that he decided to go to the feds. He then spent about 5 years working with the state department and DSS doing all sorts of secret squirrel shit across the globe while paying DC rent for a capitol hill apartment he was never at. That got old. So he put in for a transfer. This is about 5 years ago back in 2015.
He decided to go to ATF and be major league doorkicker. He goes to transfer and they need a DEEP background check. Like someone that's known him for 10+ years from hometown. He's low on contacts from home and he facebook messages me. He asks me if I can call back the background investigator and do an interview. I say sure, no problem. I am the ONLY person that's still in the same town from high school and everyone else is dead/in jail/would not make a good person to contact.
The guy calls me, comes by my office and interviews me, asks me about my friend, I told him all the embarrassing stories from high school including the time he lost a bet, had to wear a dress and smear ranch dressing all over his face while holding a sign that said "NOT MILK! and we took polaroids. Yeah. Anyways, despite all that he gets the approval and the shiny ATF badge. He's now kicking down doors in an undisclosed location in a major gun/drug trafficking corridor of the US and up to his eyeballs in arrests.
The reason I told you this story? He went to police academy in mobile, was a road cop outside mobile and a narcotics detective outside mobile. He did is MPA and doctorate there. He still has lots of friends in southern law enforcement.
I pick up the phone and call him. No answer, VM.
FC: Hey Eddie, you still have friends at the Mobile County Sheriffs Department? I've got some low hanging fruit for them to pick.
The entire bar has heard the dialogue and the following voicemail message and cracks up laughing. I'm offered 2 beers (I show them my AA chip, thanks but no thanks) and I get a bunch of attaboys from the salesmen.
So, I call back ATF Jane. ATF Jane has some colleagues in Mobile that she can call and I CC Eddie on the chain.
Today, I didn't even have to use my AK.
I got to say it was a good day.
Brb. Lasanga.
submitted by FCattheKFC to guns [link] [comments]

Let's Play a Game!

I spent some time today setting up a small options trading simulator that allows me to test out different trading strategies without having to borrow more money from my wife's boyfriend. I'm here to share the results of one of those strategies.
To simplify it for the retards here, imagine it like a game with these rules:
When we simulate this random strategy 100 times using S&P 500 historical open/close data for the years 2008, 2009, 2018, 2019, and 2020 we yield these results:
Results
100 Simulations
Year 2020 2019 2018 2009 2008
Min $ (2,509.40) $ (9,138.30) $ (6,730.80) $ (1,814.40) $ (1,253.00)
Q1 $ 2,139.78 $ (7,114.92) $ (4,931.98) $ (1,004.03) $ 1,625.48
Q2 $ 4,070.45 $ (6,197.45) $ (3,799.21) $ (571.05) $ 2,640.65
Q3 $ 5,989.01 $ (5,443.85) $ (2,133.64) $ (0.38) $ 4,080.35
Max $ 11,427.91 $ (3,588.09) $ 323.39 $ 855.80 $ 7,125.60
0-25% Avg $ (76.42) $ (7,788.58) $ (5,870.70) $ (1,330.02) $ 635.78
25-50% Avg $ 3,275.50 $ (6,671.02) $ (4,413.25) $ (833.97) $ 2,072.10
50-75% Avg $ 4,967.81 $ (5,855.24) $ (3,096.29) $ (343.82) $ 3,220.81
75-100% Avg $ 7,731.64 $ (4,869.47) $ (1,245.39) $ 444.40 $ 4,975.52
Always Right $ 12,933.01 $ 16.01 $ 4,547.40 $ 3,262.30 $ 10,961.20
Always Wrong $ (5,041.00) $ (12,545.00) $ (11,639.00) $ (4,098.00) $ (5,355.00)
Always Calls $ 625.00 $ (5,556.99) $ (6,920.90) $ (1,416.20) $ (2,949.60)
Always Puts $ 7,267.00 $ (6,972.00) $ (170.70) $ 580.50 $ 8,555.80​
As you can see from these numbers, if my assumptions are correct (they aren't), we are all fucking retarded.
What I've found:
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is a poorly modeled system. Please don't use this strategy. If you do, don't blame me for your losses.
submitted by meiscooldude to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

(Positive) findings from Gauntlet Network's research report on Ampleforth

TLDR: Financial modeling company finds that traders are actually using Ampleforth the way that the founders envisioned/predicted, and there are positive signs that the changes to the market cap may in fact be uncorrelated to BTC/ETH, another one of the team's hypotheses.
As the Ampleforth team has explained in numeroous interviews and resources, in the early stages, Ampleforth is not meant to be completely stable, but rather provider uncorrelated price and market cap movements, creating new opportunities for traders.
Obviously, the smaller the market cap, the more volatile it will be, but the hope/hypothesis is that in the medium term if it can become a bit less volatile, the lack of correlation will make it interesting as a DeFi primitive.
So given the Ampleforth team's claims about it's movement and the polarizing response to the project, a financial modeling company (Gauntlet Network) conducted some research to see if there is any truth to Ampleforth's claims.
Below is their conclusion:
We find that the chosen values for both deviationT hreshold and rebaseLag are appropriate to achieve the goal of AMPL spending maximal time near its price target. Of the trading strategies that we modeled, we find that only the Rebase Arbitrage Trader is consistently profitable across the sampled AMPL/USD volatility and drift scenarios. Furthermore, this strategy appears increasingly profitable when AMPL/USD experiences higher price volatility. From our simulation analysis, we can conclude that any serious attempt to trade AMPL must in some way price the effects of these rebase events. Our empirical analysis indicates that market participants are already taking advantage of the trading opportunities that these rebase events present. Particularly, we find that rebases of smaller magnitude may in fact present more opportunity to those who can precisely price these comparatively marginal events. Finally, we find that on a market capitalization basis AMPL can potentially provide uncorrelated returns within the cryptocurrency space, as its historical returns have been uncorrelated from both BTC and ETH across various timescales.
You can read the (lengthy) report in full here: https://gauntlet.network/reports/ampleforth
And here you can read their tweets summarizing the report: https://twitter.com/gauntletnetwork/status/1291152646351593477
submitted by thekatzpajamas_ to AmpleforthCrypto [link] [comments]

Monday, June 15th Preperation Possible Crash

(Dear Mods, I'm new to the forum, I apologize if you do not discuss daily strategies.)
I am getting ready for Monday's trading. I noticed a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern on the Weekly candlestick pattern for both the Dow and S&P 500. Looks fairly ominous and I'm worried this week will be a market crash.
My trading plan will be TVIX, once I see price confirmation. I will of coarse keep a lookout for other opportunities using scanners.
So I'm hoping to get a good entry sometimes around 9:45-10am Eastern and sell off around noonish when the market seems to cool off.
I'm on a cash account, not enough funds to avoid PDT rule and doubt anyone would give me margin. So I pretty much have only one shot at this and then I have to wait T+2 days or risk being suspended by E*Trade.
Please give me any advice and tips for tomorrow. This is going to be my first serious attempt at a day trade after a few weeks on simulators.
submitted by Zovanget to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Being honest

The last 3 weeks or so, I've been playing around with a stock market simulator. I'm probably lying to myself saying this is harmless fun.
I guess what brought me back here is that I read an article about a 20 year old trader that took his life trading on margin.
What got me interested to look at the markets again was what I saw was an intellectual challenge. I guess I forgot about all the dark stuff that comes with the trading lifestyle.
Anyway...I know what I have to do. I have to delete my simulator app and not look at stock market junk. All it takes is a little bit of a taste to get you get back to the real deal....
submitted by 000-Luck to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Benefits and Risks of Trading/Bitcoin trader

Benefits and Risks of Trading/Bitcoin trader

Ought to you jump in and begin using your onerous-mined bitcoins within the markets? Find out the risks and advantages initial.KEY TAKEAWAYS
The market is devoted to trading in the globe's currencies.
https://preview.redd.it/u8gle9a0m4f51.jpg?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9368e9fe9613884fb4fd0c86fb716e50319f2d53
Many brokers currently settle for bitcoin and different cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin trades benefit from the anonymity and decentralized valuation system the currency represents.
They add a replacement layer of risk trading, exacerbated by the acute volatilityStandard Forex Trade
Before you think about whether to trade using bitcoin, it's helpful to understand how a standaroretrade works.

A forex trade is simply an exchange of 1 currency for an additional at its current rate. Unlike tourists who exchange their home currency for local spending cash, forex traders are trying to form cash off the continual fluctuations in the real value of 1 currency against anothe

Imagine you're an American trader betting that the British pound can lose price compared to the U.S. dollar. This is termed trading on the British pound/U.S. dollar currency pair (GBP/USD).The Impact of Decentralization
The key distinction is that, though forex exchanges would possibly be decentralized, the currencies themselves are backed by central banks in the countries that issue them. It's the duty of those banks to stabilize the value of their currencies and keep them stable
Now think about an example of a forex trade using bitcoin. First, you open a forex trading account with a broker who accepts bitcoins. These embody AvaTrade,one? eToro, and LiteForex.a pair of? You then transfer 2 bitcoins from your digital wallet to the forex broker’s digital wallet.

If you wish to trade using bitcoin, use only a locally regulated forex brokerage. And avoid using leverage till you know what you are doing.
Assuming the present bitcoin to U.S. dollar rate is 1 bitcoin = $seven,500, your deposit of two bitcoins is value $fifteen,00zero. Now, assume that you would like to require an edge in British pounds. If the exchange rate is £zero.five = $one, you may receive £7,500. When it rate changes to 0.45, and you square off your position t.sixty five in your trading account. You have got made a tidy eleven.elevenpercent profit and you're prepared to cash out.




Despite the very fact that your bet on British pounds earned you an eleven.11% profit (from $fifteen,00zero to $16,66six.65), the fluctuation in the bitcoin to U.S. dollar rate suggests that that you sustain a loss of zero.039 bitcoin or about -two.percent. (Initial deposit of 2 bitcoins — 1.961 bitcoins = .039 bitcoin).

However, had the bitcoin to U.S. greenback exchange rate changed to 1 bitcoin = $7,000, you'd realize a benefit from both the forex trade and the bitcoin exchange. You'd have received ($16,66half dozen.65/$7,00zero) = two.381 bitcoins, a profit of nineteen.onepercent.

Increased Unpredictability
This hypothetical example illustrates the large reason to exercise caution when using digital currencies for forex trading. Even the most fashionable and widely used cryptocurrency, the bitcoin, is highly volatile compared to most traditional currencies.

Within the year ending July 24, 20twenty, the value of a bitcoin ranged from $five,532 to $eleven,982
This unpredictability means that that the risks associated with trading forex using bitcoin are that abundant larger
Beyond the exchange rate fluctuations impacting profit and loss, there are other edges and risks to consider before trading forex with bitcoin
Decentralized Vauations: A major advantage of trading forex with the bitcoin is that the bitcoin isn't tied to a central bank. Digital currencies are free from central geopolitical influence and from macroeconomic issues like country-specific inflation or interest rates.
High Leverage: Many forex brokers offer leverage for bitcoin trades. Experienced traders can use this to their profit. However, such high margins ought to also be approached with great caution as they amplify the potential for losses.
Low Deposit Amount: A trader can begin with as little as $twenty five with some bitcoin forex trading firms. A few forex trading companies have even offered promotions sort of a matching deposit quantity. Traders ought to check that the broker is legitimate and appropriately regulated.
Low Cost of Trading: Most forex brokers that settle for cryptocurrency are keeping brokerage costs terribly low to attract new shoppers.
Security: You don’t would like to reveal your bank account or mastercard details to make a bitcoin transaction. This could be a massive advantage in terms of price and monetary security.

No World Boundaries: Bitcoin transactions don't have any international boundaries. A trader primarily based in South Africa can trade forex through a broker based mostly within the United Kingdom. Regulatory challenges could stay a concern, however if both traders and brokers are willing to transact, there aren't any geographical boundaries.
Risks of Trading Forex with Bitcoin
Different Exchange Rates: Bitcoin trades on multiple exchanges and exchange rates vary. Traders must guarantee they understand that bitcoin exchange rates the forex broker can be using.

U.S. Dollar Rate Risk: While receiving bitcoin deposits from clients, almost all brokers instantly sell the bitcoins and hold the quantity in U.S. dollars. Even if a trader will not take a forex trade position immediately when the deposit, he or she remains exposed to the bitcoin-to-U.S. dollar rate risk from deposit to withdrawal.
Danger of Volatility: Historically, bitcoin prices have exhibited high volatility. Within the absence of regulations, volatility will be used by unregulated brokers to their advantage and a trader’s disadvantage. For example, assume the intraday bitcoin rate fluctuates from $five,00zero to $5,300 U.S. greenbacks per bitcoin. For an incoming deposit of two bitcoins, the unregulated broker may apply very cheap rates to credit the trader $10,00zero (2 bitcoins * $five,000 = $10,000). However, once the trader is ready to create a withdrawal, the broker might use rock bottom exchange rate. Instead of the original a pair of bitcoins deposited, the trader receives o
Security Risks Inherent to Bitcoin: Deposited bitcoins are vulnerable to theft by hacking, even from a broker’s digital wallet. To reduce this risk, rummage around for a broker who has insurance protection against theft.


Risk of Leverage: Using leverage is risky for new traders who may not perceive the exposure. This risk is not unique to cryptocurrency forex trading and comes into play in traditional forex transactions still.
Asset Category Mixing: Cryptocurrency may be a different asset class altogether and has its own valuation mechanism. Trading forex with bitcoins primarily introduces a replacement intermediate currency which will impact profit and loss in unexpected ways. Any cash that's not locked down in an exceedingly trader’s base currency is a risk.
Although cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are gaining popularity, there are still several associated risks. In forex trading, dealing in a decentralized currency that provides global transactions with no fees is a bonus. But the tradeoff is actually adding a 3rd currency to what was a trading try
Put your trading skills to the take a look at with our FREE Stock Simulator. Compete with thousands of Investopedia traders and trade your means to the top! Submit trades in an exceedingly virtual setting before you start risking your own cash. Practice trading ways thus that when you're prepared to enter the $64000 market, you've got had the practice you would like. Attempt our Stock Simulator today
https://www.cryptoerapro.com/the-bitcoin-trade
submitted by cryptoerapro to u/cryptoerapro [link] [comments]

Any Sites/Simulations To Learn And Practice Options Trading?

I’m new to options and have made a few plays for a small profit, but I want to learn more and practice, so I was wondering if anyone knows of a free options platform to simulate the real market for options trading? I tried looking some up on google but I just kept getting stock market simulations that didn’t support options trading.
submitted by Zac1234578 to options [link] [comments]

The Best of Rubinville - 2005 Edition

2005 saw Dave Rubin's blog, "Rubinville", really take off. Dave continues fat shaming people; both famous (Kirstie Alley, Star Jones, Andy Milonakis, Anna Nichole Smith) and non-famous. (It's funny because Dave recently tweeted out to Kirstie Alley for her to do his show.) Dave voted for Republican Michael Bloomberg in the 2005 NYC Mayoral race. Some of Dave's favorite shows include The View, Tony Danza, and any program on CNN or Fox News. Dave wishes death to Jeff Zucker for not picking up a failed sketch show of his and continues to believe that Tom Hanks stole his material and used it on The Tonight Show. (Dave previously mentioned this in his blog; 2003/4.) Dave mocks Adam Carolla and Mike Rowe; he is now friendly with both. In the beginning of 2005, Dave promises to no longer stalk Ellen but he goes back on that promise. Except this time, Dave shares his daily e-mails to Ellen. Lastly, Dave continues to use slurs against Asian people, Arabic people, little people, and well, anyone he doesn't like.
2005 Rubinville
01/09/2005 Palestian elections are today and most people are expecting Abu Mazen to win by a solid margin. If any Palestians are reading this and haven't voted yet, please use your vote to write-in Arab-American actor Tony Shaloub. People think to think his show 'Monk' is funny, but it actually sucks and I think he'll be out of work soon enough. I still can't get over that dump I took. I think I lost a vital organ.
01/18/2005 It's absolutely freezing outside. I recommend boxers briefs with a pair of regualr boxers above them to keep your balls nice and toasty. Everyone loves toasty balls. Watched the Golden Globes...I'd just like to say that Star Jones had a lump of fat coming out of her dress in the armpit area. So very disturbing…I've officially stopped writing Ellen Degeneres e-mails because she refuses to respond. That's it Ellen, no more compliments about your dancing either.
01/20/2005 I wonder wish of the Bush twins gives better head.
01/23/2005 Leno has just totally wrecked that show and no self-respecting comic can stand the guy. Though, as I have joked before, I probably shouldn't write that. The stuff that we have been doing at the Comedy Company lately is the type of stand up that Johnny would've loved, I'm sure. So Dave Letterman, if you find yourself a lil nostalgic, and looking for new comics like how Johnny once found you, I'm only about 3 blocks away.
02/10/2005 In other news, turns out that Hakeem Olajuwon gave money to a Islamic charity than ended up funding Hamas and other terrorist organizations. Hewlett Packard fired their CEO yesterday, further shrinkening the amount of female CEO's at major companies. Does this have anything to do with why my HP printer acts like a bitch whenever I try to print a color document? That was so weak, I apologize to you and your family.
02/14/2005 I then took the money I made and donated it to a Muslim charity which I later found out was just a front for Hamas. Oh wait, that was Hakeeem Olajuwon.
02/16/2005 Ashley Olsen is suing the National Enquirer for 40 million dollars for spreaidn what she calls false lies about her being involved in a drug scandal. I don't know if that's true or not but I banged her last night while she did cocaine off her sister's asscrack...Can someone please explain to me the logic behind Kirstie Alley being the spokeswoman for the new Jenny Craig ads? She's fat. Am I missing something here? Have they just given up altogether?
02/23/2005 Now, I wasn't there so I don't know what was said before the melee, but lemme say that fat people are usually hungry, and contrary to popular belief, not as jolly as they would have you believe. So, if one cuts you in line at a pizza place, just let them do it. Most likely they will die of a heart condition relatively soon, and they need to max out their eating time here on Earth.
03/06/2005 Dan Rather is about to officially sign off from the CBS news desk. In an interview Donald Trump says he would have told Rather "You're fired" a long time ago. Fortunately, for Rather he isn't a contestant on a tired reality show, he's just the host of a made-up news show.
Syrian President Bashar Assad says his country will move it's troops mostly out of Lebannon. Assad who, after the announcement, went to one of his many palaces and made his many female servents fondle him. Sammy Sosa got ejected in his second pre-season game….and watched the game from the clubhouse where some of his many female servants fondled him.
03/23/2005. Richard Simmons was on the Tony Danza Show this morning. I've never seen one man (Danza) so afraid of a woman (Simmons) before. The feeding tube is still out of Terry Shiavo. Call me crazy but I think that if a person is in a constant vegetative state and is being kept alive artificially by machines and her husband has nothign to gain by her death, except peace of mind, then, well, we should let her die.
04/11/2005 A special shout out to the asian girl up front who wouldn't even let me get a joke out before she told me that she loves oragami and calculus. Maury Povich is on ESPN's Cold Pizza right now. He's wearing so much makeup that he is starting to look like Connie Chung. Doesn't Connie Chung sounds like a type of infectious disease? "Dude, that's a pretty bad cough you got there" "Yea, I've got a bad case of Connie Chung."
04/15/2005 Just saw a commercial for "8 Simple Rules" on ABC. It said there is a secret so shocking that "it will upset even special guest Nicole Ritchie!" (Insert coked-up whore joke here)
04/27/2005 As some of you may know every other day or so I send Ellen Degeneres an e-mail with no specific point. Sometimes I just update her on things I'm doing, sometimes I ask a random question, sometimes I rant about politics. I've been doing this for about a year and have yet to get even one response back. So today it hit me, maybe Ellen isn't even getting my e-mails and they are being filtered out by some assistant or intern. So starting today, whenever I send Ellen an e-mail I'm also going to post a copy of it here in the Daily Dave. Here's what I sent today...
Ellen, I'm starting to think by your lack of responses to my emails that someone else is reading your emails. Who is this person? What qualifies them to read things in your name? How do they decide what gets passed onto you?
I realize that this person is reading this right now and thus probably won't pass it along, but I just want to say to that person that Ellen would really like to read this email and if you stop her from doing so, you are really stopping freedom of speech, which is the most American thing out there, and Ellen is pro-America, is she not??
Now I suppose we wait and see. The ball is in your court Ellen..
04/29/2005 Anyways, the point of this continues the string of good interactions I've had with some of the big names of comedy, like Seinfeld, Cosby and now Crystal. I've also had a couple good talks with Gilbert Gottfried, just not sure if he falls into the "big names" category.
Here's my e-mail to Ellen for today...
Hey Ellen, Something came up and I was wondering if I could borrow 2000 dollars. Thanks.
05/02/2005 Here's today's email that just sent Ellen Degeneres...
Ellen, Do you think that drinking Orange Juice with extra vitamins in it, like Tropicana's Immunity Defense Orange Juice is really worth it? Thanks.
05/04/2005 NBC announced 6 reality shows for this coming summer. They are, in no particular order...
The Biggest Loser - See a fat loser become a slightly less fat loser.
I Want to Be a Hilton - Paris' mother is the host, and I assume she sucks off the contestants.
Here's my e-mail of the day to Ellen...Ellen, I see you had Betty White on the show today. I didn't see it but I was wondering if you asked her if she moved back to St. Olaf or stayed in Miami after the Golden Girls ended.
05/06/2005 Here's my letter to Ellen for today...Ellen, I scored 22 points last night and my team is now 4-0 in our basketball league. That's not a question, just thought you'd like to know.
New York City is expected to have a 3.2 billion dollar surplus this year. Clearly, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg shouldn't be a politician. He's fixed the budget, crime is down, the city is cleaner, and quality of life is rising. As a comic this really pisses me off. There's nothing funny when things are going well. Damn you Bloomberg!
05/10/2005 We'll start with the Ellen letter of the day... Ellen,
I've noticed you're big on making people's dreams come true. Well, last night I had a dream that I was swimming in chocolate and started drowning until Batman arrived and saved me. Can you make that happen for me in real life?
05/13/2005 Ellen letter of the day… Ellen,
You showing your prom picture just reminded me of my prom. At mine, I was about to have sex for the first time but then the OJ Simpson car chase happened and it blew the whole thing. Sucks, right?
Macaulay Culkin has testified that Michael Jackson didn't molest him. You know you're a child molester when they have to bring in one kid just to say he DIDN'T get molested. Actually, rumor has it that Michael tried to molest Macaulay on many occasions but Macaulay always had an elaborate series of traps set-up and Michael would get a bowling ball dropped on his head or slip on a bunch of marbles.
05/16/2005 I accidently just flushed a copy of the Koran down the toilet this morning. Keep that quiet or there might be riots in Patterson, New Jersey.
05/19/2005 However, I will do an impression of Yoday having sex..."Going to come, I am!"
06/14/2005 Kirstie Alley claims to have lost 35 pounds on Jenny Craig according to the commercial I just saw. In my opinion she looks fatter than ever, which makes me think they fattened her up about 70 pounds, then had her drop 35 pounds. Michael Jackson is not guilty on all charges. He celebrated the verdict by getting drunk at the Santa Monica pre-school. That's really all I can offer up on MJ at the moment. It's sad that money buys justice in this country, but it is what it is.
07/06/2005 I'm currently pitching a show to NBC where regular people get to hunt down NBC executives and murder them in cold blood. The first person to get Jeff Zucker gets a million bucks. Time Warner cable here in NYC is now Carrying AZN Television, "The Network for Asian Americans". This is a real problem going on in America right now, that everyone thinks they need their own channel. The asain channel, the woman channel, the gay channel, the black channel. What's next, a comedy channel?
07/07/2005 Terror is really an amazing tool. It makes nations choose their destiny instead of avoiding it. When America was attacked, we chose to go on the offensive. When Spain was attacked, they chose to retreat. Now England will have their choice, and we'll see what they do. I have a feeling they'll go on the offensive, but Europe is a strange place, and there are many people who think that if you appease the bad guys that they will stop hating you as much.
A month from now Israel is going to pull out of the Gaza Strip. I can't help but think that the same guys who attacked us on 9/11, and the same guys who hit London today, are the same guys who will be thrilled that Israel is leaving because of an unrelenting campaign of terror. I'm not saying that staying just because they will feel rewarded if you leave is enough to stay, but I am wondering if leaving emboldens them to fight even more.
07/15/2005 Hillary thinks that the simulated sex in Grand Theft Auto is pretty much the beginning of the end of human civilization. Of course, co-moralist Joe Lieberman is joining Hillary on this crusade to save humanity as we know it. Somehow I doubt the two of them have ever played the game, or any other game for that matter, but as politicians they obviously feel qualified to tell us why they think we're all messed up.
07/17/2005 If any of that made sense to you then I highly recommend The Andy Milonakis Show on MTV. I have literally no idea what the show is about, but it is based around an overgrown, mildly-obese, childlike moron who does various nonsensical stunts. As I watched in utter horror my roomate turned to me and said...
07/18/2005 Joy Behar - Doesn't take shit from Star Jones. Robot Chicken - I had this idea about 10 years ago, but Seth Green did it first. Good job. Kira Phillips - That smile makes suicide bombings look sorta cute.
07/21/2005 Caught a few minutes of Tucker Carlson's new MSNBC show last night. I've discussed what a bow-tie wearing dork he is before, but now let me also throw in that even without the bow-tie he is still a big dork.
07/27/2005 I watched a new show on the Discovery Channel last night called, "Dirty Jobs with Mike Rowe". The show follows Mike as he goes from various jobs that nobody would want to other jobs that nobody would want. In just this one episode, he plucked golf balls from alligator infested waters, he was a garbage man and he jacked off a horse. Yes, that's right. People are doing this. For a living.
08/01/2005 The ladies of The View are talking about poor Paris Hilton and Nicole Ritchie, who claim not to like each other, yet will do another season of "Simple Life". Hmm, call me a cynic but maybe they are just making up the whole fued just for the free publicity? C'mon Starr Jones, call it like it is! Say allegedly if you have to! File a leagal brief! Eat a piece of cake! Just do something!
08/06/2005 And back to the funny...This week marks the 60th anniversary of the USA dropping the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima. To commemorate the occasion, Iran announced it will continue it's nuclear program and bomb someone "as soon as humanely possible."
08/10/2005 Terrell Owens left Eagles training camp today. WAAAAA! I only make 12 million dollars a year to play football! WAAAAA! I want more money! WAAAAAA! I want more respect! WAAAAA!
08/12/2005 Speaking of Sportscenter, Mario Lopez, better known as AC Slater, is new doing a new segment on Sportscenter called ESPN Hollywood. He is so smiley its ridiculous. Mario, we all know you want to kill people, from Zach Morris to Stuart Scott. Let it go bud, you don't have to smile the whole time. It's offensive.
08/15/2005 Jimmy Kimmel, who hosted the show, is amazingly unfunnny, and will be cancelled any day now. Sara Silverman has no real talent and will continue to suck Jimmy Kimmel's cock for as long as he has a TV show. Adam Corrola also sucked Jimmy Kimmel's dick to further his career. And it was no easy feat because if his giant teeth. Israel is pulling out of Gaza today. Why is it that Jews can't live in a place that is run by Arabs, but Arabs can live in Israel, France, Britian, America and every other country on the planet? Oh yea, the Arabs are backwards, fundamentalist wacko's. I keep forgetting that.
08/26/2005 My first hour on Craigslist yesterday was accidentely searching for jobs in San Franscisco. Considering I hate commuting to the East Side, San Fran would really be pushing it. Kathy Griffin has a new show on Bravo called, "My Life on the D-List". I'm pretty sure once you have a show you are off the D-List. She's probably C-List now. I'm D-List. Oh, who am I kidding, I'm G-List, but I aspire to be D-List. Man, D-List, that'd be so sweet. Okay, gotta go, I've got a lot of work to do. D-List here we come.
09/06/2005 Anyone else think that Bush had Rehnquist killed to get some of the the heat off him for the slow support time in the Gulf Coast? Timing is everything.
09/17/2005 It was with great joy and happiness that when i woke up this morning that I came across "GI Joe: Sigma 6" on Fox 5. I saw the title of the show as it was on a commercial and I anxiously awaited what I would see. Then it happened once again. Japanimation.
09/26/2005 Shouldn't Intelligence Design really be called Unintelligent Design?
09/30/2005 That whole Elian Gonzalez fiasco is back in the news because it all went down five years ago. I said it then and I'll say it now, if a little Mexican boy wants to go to Puerto Rico, I say let him go.
10/06/2005 Fortunately, the guy at the bodega downstairs lent my his metro card and I picked up my roomate's keys. In the past I've had my suspicions that the bodega guy works for al-Queda, but on this day he was a good man.
10/08/2005 Iran's stock market dropped 30% yesterday. Can you imagine what it smells like on the trading floor of the Iran Stock Exchange? Nobody there wears deoderant for God's sake. If you want help to turn it around I'd recommend putting all your money in Allah Body Spray. Women will pull down there burka's as low as their nose if they smell it.
10/11/2005 One night a couple years ago Tom was on the Tonight Show to promote "Castaway." It was right before Chistmas and he was talking about all these toys, such as the Carebears and Power Rangers. I was noticing that some of the stuff he was saying was amazingly close to my material at the time, and he was even saying it pretty much how I was saying it. Then he went into this whole thing about the Tranformers, about how they transform from robots into cars. He ended by singing a version of the Transformers theme song in the voice of Frank Sinatra. Dave, why would Tom Hanks steal your material, and how would he even get it in the first place? Good questions. As you probably know, when any actor goes on one of these shows all the questions/answers and jokes are pre-written. It was very clear to me that Tom was just doing material he had been given. So no, I don't think Tom had any idea what was going on. I think he paid some writer for some material and some writer gave him stolen stuff. It's not the first time it has happened, nor the last time it will happen, it just sucks when it happens to you. I'm pretty sure I know who gave him the material, but that I won't say until there is more worth in telling this story.
10/12/2005 Zucker, who has helped wreck TV by rolling out so many reality shows at the expense of real programming deserves that silver bullet. Yea, maybe it isn't wise for me to say that on here, but it isn't the first time and won't be the last time.
Years ago we sent Zucker "The Anti Show", which we filmed in NBC studios (unknown to him), and he never even bothered to respond to us. That was just one opportunity he had to take a chance on something completely oringinal, edgy and ahead of the curve. Instead he green-lit dozens of awful reality shows and a couple stale sitcoms. Karma is a bitch Jeff, but don't worry, it sounds like you'll be put out of your misery soon.
11/04/2005 I'm sure Apple will find a way to capitalize on this whole porn thing, perhaps by coming out with a new iPod designed specifically for the midget porn afficionado. Speaking of midget porn, I have to be somewhere in 15 minutes. Take care.
11/07/2005 Mike Bloomberg for Mayor of NYC. Yea, he's nerdy. Yea, he's rich. But the city is safe, clean and he even rides the subway sometimes. Anyone who can deal with the smell of the 59th and Lexington stop smell is worth voting for.
11/12/2005 Saw Derailed with Jennifer Anniston last night. Pretty good flick. The moron couple behind me brought their four year old son who kicked my seat constantly and didn't shut up the entire time. I got this close to derailing his graduation to kindergarten, but calmer heads prevailed.
11/16/2005 Michael Jackson got caught walking into a woman's restroom in Bahrain earlier this week. He claimed that it was a simple mistake because he doesn't speak Arabic. It turns out that he thought the sign said, "Horrifically Misfigured Former Pop Stars Who Like to Lick Children's Heads."
12/20/2005 The transit strike is on, and while I don't want to take sides, let me say that the transit workers and their union representatives can go fuck themselves….. I haven't seen so many angry people stuck in traffic since the day before we bombed Baghdad.
submitted by PropertyForward to daverubin [link] [comments]

Video games are the future. ATVI DD inside.

Video games are the future. ATVI DD inside.
What's up fuckers. TSLA fuckboy here writing a post about video games. Go figure. I posted the link about Daddy Elon and legalizing weed last weekend, and got fucking temporarily banned for it because I flaired it with DD. It definitely wasn't DD. Learn from my mistake and don't fuck around with flairs or the mods. In my defense, I have ADHD, was high af, and am likely retarded. I served my sentence, and am here to try to redeem myself with some real DD on Activison-Blizzard (ATVI). I actually wrote this a few days ago when ATVI was $68 (proof attached), but couldn't post it until now. That's ok though, I committed a sin and you all have to pay the price by getting this DD 4 days late (love you mods). Don't fret though (like the market this morning wtf), there is still time for tendies.
I'm long ATVI. They are going to steadily rise for the next 5-10 years. In the paragraphs below, you'll learn why. To be fair, I bought puts on BYND when it was trading at $70 in April, so, I'm pretty fucking smart. Do your due diligence (or fucking don’t, whatever). Obligatory this is not financial advice.
Pictures, positions and TL;DR at the bottom for those of you that don’t know how to read (and let’s be honest, most of you don’t know how to read. Most of you need crayons to eat while you look at pictures. Lookin at you 220p SPY bag holders lmao.) That or you have the attention span of the stock market in March. Either way, enjoy!

Long-Term thoughts

You know that saying, the one that rich-fucks who inherited a bunch of money from their crazy aunt (they've never even met this Aunt obviously) say, “You gotta make your money work for you or you'll never be rich!” Yeah, well fuck those people. I got one better. I make ogres and trolls and wizards and guns (oh my) do the work for me, and it turns out they work really fucking hard, 24/7/365.
Activison-Blizzard is one of the biggest powerhouses of the video game industry and I think they have a tremendous opportunity for growth in the long term. They are also recession/virus/pandemic/protest proof. And in reality, most of these things actually make ATVI more attractive.
Can’t go outside because there's a fucking curfew (we have to be in a simulation), or your downtown is literally on fire from a protest and there’s a deadly virus just hanging out on every corner trying to murder your grandma? Cool. You don’t give a fuck because you’re sitting in your Lovesac (just fucking don't), playing COD while eating your BYND meat fake burger with a non-gmo, organic, gluten-free lettuce wrap with a 42oz Monster at 3 am. Why face reality when video games are so much more fun, AND you don't have to put on pants. Also, the gov is literally handing out money to people on unemployment.
Put on your thinking cap and think really fucking hard for a second. Really hard. Do you think there's a correlation between people that are unemployed (and getting insane unemployment payments + stimulus + more stimulus at the end of July and are basically being ENCOURAGED TO STAY HOME), and the likelihood of that person playing video games? Hmm. FUCKING MAYBE.
Earnings - They make lots of money lol
They have crushed recent earnings (and most other earnings), and they have really fucking solid financials. Boatloads of cash on hand and relatively low debt. They have rock-solid management that has been there for years, and they are devoted to the company. Here's some great info on how they make money.
Also, most importantly, u/fuzzyblankeet said "they are a great company" (proof attached) and that guy doesn't fuck around.
Current and upcoming games
  1. COD - (literally prints fucking money every single release) and the new free-to-play Warzone mode has been insane, taking tons of market share from Fortnite and PUBG. They also have gotten tremendous traction with their COD Mobile game. They will also obviously announce a new COD for the next-gen consoles coming from Microsoft and Sony, Holiday 2020. This holiday season will unquestionably be the most gigantic video game fiesta the world has ever seen, and COD will be the Fucking King. Mark my words.
  2. Overwatch 2 - No date announced yet, but you can bet your allowance (that your wife's boyfriend gives you) that they're gonna try and get it out during the Holiday season. I bet it sells 45-55 million copies, on top of all the micro-transactions, similar to its predecessor).
  3. Diablo 4 and Diablo Immortal - Diablo's fan base are addicts. Blizzard killed it with Diablo 3, and many people expect these 2 new games to be even more epic. One of them being a console game similar to Diablo 3 (for next-gen consoles obviously), and the other being a free-to-play (micro.fucking.transaction'$) game made for iPhone/Android (lol losers). Much smaller fan base than COD/Overwatch, but still, 10's of millions is pretty massive.
  4. WoW - Not what it used to be, but still has a large player base of millions. They are releasing another new expansion this year and the revitalization of its classic Wow has been a hit.
  5. Hearthstone - More than 100 million people have played the game as of 2018 (most recent data I could find). I'd guess that with their new Battlegrounds Mode, in addition to multiple yearly expansions, this game will continue pulling in significant revenue for years to come, especially if they find ways to invent new game modes that bring old players back.
  6. Starcraft - Although this area of the business doesn't make them much money right now, I think it's safe to say that the Starcraft Universe still carries a lot of weight in a lot of gamers' minds. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Starcraft 4 or some mobile variation of it in the next 3 years, and I think that it would do excellent.
  7. Hero's of the Storm - The game is still played, but is definitely one of the smallest revenue generators for them.
  8. Revitalizing Spyro and Crash Bandicoot - Although there is no real news on theses getting re-vamped, ATVI thinks of them as a flagship brand. I bet they sell a shit load of copies each on console if they go that route, especially the Nintendo Switch (which happens to be in the hands of 55 million people).
  9. Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 1+2 Remaster - Yeah, they are remastering this shit. You remember how badass these games were back in the day. Set to release Sept, 2020. I actually think this might be a surprise revenue generator. It'll sell 25-35 million copies.
  10. King Digital Entertainment - ATVI bought them for around 6 billion a few years back, and it's pretty clear that this was a wise purchase. Their suite of current games and upcoming games/expansions should continue to print money and at a good margin. They are a dominat player in the mobile space, and could leverage those users to try other games from ATVI (Diablo Immortal)
  11. Tv show - Pretty strong rumors that Blizzard is working on a few TV shows based on their Diablo and Overwatch worlds. Animated TV shows are growing in popularity, even for adults. Both of these shows will attract ALL blizzard fans (100's of millions around the world), and lots of new people too, as I'm sure they'll make it easy enough to digest for someone who doesn't know the game/universes already. This could also bring brand new people into the Blizziverse. And I'm sure Netflix/HBO Max/Apple TV would be happy to pay a pretty penny for rights to it.

E-Sports - The Future of 'sports' entertainment

E-Sports will largely replace real sports in our lifetime, and we’re just now really getting started. Disagree? Great, I don’t give a fuck. Go ask any 10 year-old this question. “Hey little Johnny-Sue. Would you like to watch some sweaty dudes smash into each other for 3 hours, or would you rather watch your favorite team play in their respective competitive E-Sport league on Twitch?” 9/10 times, Lil-fuckin-Johnny-Sue gonna pick video games, and that's a fact.
Teams and Orgs
Esports are also BOOMING in colleges, with lots of colleges offering significant scholarships to come play video games for their school. Let me help you draw a mental picture. Concentrate.
Remember Lil-Fucking-Johnny-Sue from above? If he/she gets good enough at whatever game he/she is playing, they could get a full-ride scholarship to college, and then possibly get a job afterwards as a professional Esports athlete (and make more money then a CPA makes their first few years of working). THEN, when he/she gets too fucking old and slow to play the game (25-30 years old typically) they can become an analyst, caster, coach, manager, scout, etc etc. Maybe they become the next N0tail (highest paid Esports athlete to date) and make a cool 6.8 million a year. Imagine making 6 figures a year to play fucking video games and rekt n00bs on stage. Fuck I want that life so bad.
There are literally stadiums being filled with fans to watch people play video games, while another 100 million people watch from home. Esports organizations are becoming bigger and bigger. TSM is a major Esports organization in the US and they are building a $50 million facility in LA. More words on other organizations to help put things into perspective. While these facilities are clearly impressive, this is nothing compared to major sports facilities.
Here's my point. Is it reasonable to assume that these facilities/teams/Esports stadiums/orgs will continue to get bigger? And if they get bigger, they will demand more attention from celebrities/rich folk because they want to get in on the action. As a result, the salaries of players/managers/staff/coaches/analysts will continue to go up and there will be more and more opportunities for jobs in this field. This then causes more young people to be more interested in video games, because not only are they fun af (and insanely addictive), but you could play pro someday! Schools/colleges will continue to develop competitive Esports teams because A: You better fucking believe that there are lots of kids out there that care about this and B: The school knows that it could lead to jobs (more like a dream job, but still something that's reasonable to consider if you are really good at a video game).
Still disagree? More words for you to look at and not understand.
Blizzard Esports Revenue
There are competitive (money generating) Esports leagues for 7 different ATVI games. (Overwatch, Hearthstone, WoW, COD, COD Warzone, COD Mobile, Starcraft). Here are some thoughts from Pete Vlastelica (head of E-Sports at Blizzard).
E-Sports will be 10x in 10 years. Bet your bottom dollar on it.

Technicals - (kinda, but only 1 cause fuck TA)

Honestly, just fucking look at the 50-day moving average (image attached). They crashed and burned cause Rona (so did everything else you autist). But Rona has been canceled, and even if it hasn't, ATVI is gonna be better off because of it.
TL;DR - ATVI makes a lot of money and they are in a strong position to grow and make lots more fucking cash regardless of C19/protests/riots and they might actually do even better because of it. (3 -12 months = 80's) (12-24 months = 90's.)
Yolo 100c mid-2021.
EDIT: misspelled ATVI ticker one time in post and some autist called me out. Fixed. Also, fuck off.
https://preview.redd.it/8g6urh79oa451.png?width=2476&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfc5dc86d808439bbb5ff7612d2f40d86c0742e2
https://preview.redd.it/ry0jel79oa451.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f683884fc309d90803a24e3c32d1c626ef84cb0
https://preview.redd.it/qq32ek79oa451.png?width=596&format=png&auto=webp&s=11661a18e989e7fdf5fc94979f15fb64645d8907
submitted by tslatothemoon to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[H] Many HB Keys [W] Steam Wishlist, Paypal, Offers

I have aquired lots of games during the years.
I am willing to do trades for games from my Steam-Wishlist or sell them via Paypal.
If you are interested please comment. ( Updated games list)
If i don´t answer, I am probably asleep or working ( GMT+2 )
Humble Choice Picks:
July 2020: 1 3 Choices Left
* Void Bastards
* Railway Empire
June 2020: 5 8 Choices Left
* Supraland
* Grid-Ultimate Edition
* Men of War: Assault Squad 2 Warchest Edition
April 2020: 7 9 Choices Left
* Hitman 2
* Gris
March 2020: 6 7 Choices Left
* F1 2019 Anniversary Edition
February 2020: 4 6 Choices Left
* Pathfinder: Kingmaker
* Okami HD
January 2020: 0 6 Choices Left
* Middle Earth: Shadows of War
* Graveyard Keeper
* Dirt Rally 2.0
* Street Fighter V
* Trailmakers
* Them´s Fighting Herds
December 2019: 4 5 Choices Left
* Shadow of the Tomb Raider
Game Platform Available Price
11-11 Memories Retold Steam Available
>observer_ Steam Available
A Magical High School Girl Steam Available
Aaero Steam Available
Absolver Steam Available
Almost There: The Platformer Steam Available
Ame no Marginal -Rain Marginal- Steam Available
Android Module GameMaker Sold
Assassin's Creed® Origins Uplay Sold
Aurion: Legacy of the Kori-Odan Steam Available
Avernum 3: Ruined World Steam Available
Boundless Steam Available
Burnout Paradise: The Ultimate Box Origin Key Origin Available
Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 Additional Content Blizzard Sold
Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 Standard Edition Blizzard Sold
Call of Duty®: WWII Steam Sold
Celestian Tales: Old North Complete Pack (GOG Alt) GOG Alt Available
Celestian Tales: Old North Complete Pack (GOG Howl) GOG Howl Available
Celestian Tales: Old North Complete Pack (GOG OST) GOG OST Available
Celestian Tales: Old North Complete Pack (GOG) GOG Available
Clustertruck Steam Available
Cognition: An Erica Reed Thriller: GOTY Steam Available
Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising Origin Key Origin Available
Cook, Serve, Delicious! Steam Available
Crash Bandicoot™ N. Sane Trilogy Steam Sold
Crysis 2 Maximum Edition Origin Key Origin Available
Dead Space Origin Key Origin Available
Distance Steam Available
ESO Vanity pet: Bristlegut Piglet and 15 days of ESO Plus BAM Sold
Endless Space Emperor Edition Steam Available
Evergarden Steam Available
FUNimation Subscription Discount FUNimation Available
Fault milestone one Steam Available
Fight'N Rage Steam Available
Fluffy Horde Steam Available
Freedom Planet Steam Available
Frozen Synapse Multiplayer Key Frozen Synapse Multiplayer Available
Galactic Missile Defense Steam Available
Game of Thrones: A Telltale Games Series Telltale Available
GameMaker Studio Pro GameMaker Sold
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy Steam Sold
Gremlins, Inc. Steam Available
Guts and Glory Steam Available
HTML5 Module GameMaker Sold
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice Steam Available
Highway Blossoms Steam Available
Hollow Knight - Backer Steam Keys (Steam) Steam Sold
Hollow Knight - Backer Steam Keys (Steam) Steam Sold
Home Steam Available
Homefront Steam Available
INK Deluxe Edition Steam Available
KARAKARA Steam Available
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition Steam Available
Kingdom Come: Deliverance Steam Sold
Legends of Eisenwald Steam Available
Life is Strange Complete Season (Episodes 1-5) Steam Sold
MOTHERGUNSHIP Steam Available
Mad Games Tycoon Steam Available
Medal of Honor Origin Key Origin Available
Mirror's Edge Origin Key Origin Available
Moonlighter Steam Sold
Out of the Park Baseball 18 Steam Available
Overgrowth Secret Preorder Forum (SPF) access Overgrowth Preorder Forum access Available
Overgrowth Steam Available
Override: Mech City Brawl Steam Available
Paradigm Steam Available
Paratopic Steam Available
Planet Alpha Steam Available
Poker Night at the Inventory Telltale Sold
Populous Origin Key Origin Available
Project CARS 2 Steam Sold
Puss! Steam Available
Puzzle Agent 2 Telltale Available
Puzzle Agent Telltale Available
Q.U.B.E. 2 Steam Available
Quake Champions Early Access plus 50 Shards, 100 Platinum, 2000 Favor Steam Available
RaidersSphere4th Steam Available
Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered Steam Available
Regular Human Basketball Steam Available
Resident Evil 5 Gold Edition Steam Sold
Resident Evil 6 (Low Violence) Steam Available
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam + 2 DLCs Steam Available
Road Redemption Steam Available
Road to Ballhalla Steam Available
Root Double -Before Crime * After Days- Xtend Edition Steam Available
SOULCALIBUR VI Steam Sold
SYNTHETIK: Legion Rising Steam Sold
Saints Row 2 (Low Violence) Steam Available
Saku Saku: Love Blooms with the Cherry Blossoms Steam Available
Scanner Sombre Steam Available
Seasons After Fall Steam Available
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun Steam Sold
Shadowrun Returns Steam Available
Shadowrun: Dragonfall Director's Cut Steam Available
Shenmue I & II Steam Available
Silence Steam Available
SimplePlanes Steam Available
Slipstream Steam Available
Snake Pass Steam Available
Sonic Mania Steam Sold
SpeedRunners Steam Sold
Splasher Steam Available
Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy Steam Sold
Squad (Early Access) Steam Sold
Sunrider: Liberation Day - Captain's Edition Steam Available
Sword Legacy Omen Steam Available
Tales from the Borderlands Telltale Available
Tannenberg Steam Available
The Elder Scrolls Online: Tamriel Unlimited Steam Sold
The Elder Scrolls: Legends: 2 Card Packs (Skyrim) 1 Event Ticket 100 Gold 100 Souls Bethesda Available
The Norwood Suite Steam Available
The Spiral Scouts Steam Available
Tom Clancy's The Division™ - Survival Uplay Available
Tom Clancy's The Division™ Uplay Available
Tower Unite Steam Sold
Train Simulator 2017 Steam Sold
Train Simulator 2017: Platform Clutter Pack Steam Sold
Train Simulator 2017: Town Scenery Pack Steam Sold
Tyranny - Standard Edition Steam Traded
Void Destroyer Steam Available
Wargame: Red Dragon Steam Sold
Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide Steam Available
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 - Collector's Edition Steam Sold
Windows UWP Module GameMaker Sold
Yakuza Kiwami Steam Available
iOS Module GameMaker Sold
submitted by WhirlingDerwish to GameTrade [link] [comments]

Trading Simulator Tool How to Adjust Or Reset Paper Money Thinkorswim Account ... Forex Calculator - pip value, margin & position sizing CME SPAN MARGIN CALCULATOR INSTRUCTIONS Forex Trading Simulator

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Trading Simulator Tool

Get familiar with the Sterling Trader® Pro Platform from Sterling Trading Tech (https://www.sterlingtradingtech.com/) The following overview will give you th... Risk Disclaimer for Forex Trading Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. ... Soft4FX - Trading Simulator - Duration: 20:18 ... Be Careful Guys, Forex is not easy, But sometimes you can find some people be success in this business. You can stay tune in this channel and I will be happy... Forex Simulator from fxblue.com (how-to guide) ... All about margin and leverage in forex trading - Duration: 23:38. Rob Booker Trading 230,070 views. 23:38. Daily Forex Trading Strategy Session ... Once you get use to the first couple of downloads, using the CME span margin calculator should be part of your daily trading process for gathering your exchange margin discounts on your futures ...

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